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UFC on ESPN 16: Holm vs. Aldana

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PuertoRican   United States. Oct 02 2020 22:24. Posts 12091

Date: Saturday, October 3
Main Card (ESPN/ESPN+): 3:30 LP.net / 7:30pm PST / 10:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (ESPN+): 00:30 LP.net / 4:30pm PST / 7:30pm EST
Live Streams: http://crackstreams.com/mma/2/




Main Card (ESPN/ESPN+)

Holly Holm (13-5) vs. Irene Aldana (12-5) (Women's Bantamweight)
Yorgan de Castro (6-1) vs. Carlos Felipe (8-1) (Heavyweight)
Germaine de Randamie (9-4) vs. Julianna Pena (9-3) (Women's Bantamweight)
Dequan Townsend (21-11) vs. Dusko Todorovic (9-0) (Middleweight)

Preliminary Card (ESPN+)

Kyler Phillips (7-1) vs. Cameron Else (10-4) (Bantamweight)
Carlos Condit (30-13) vs. Court McGee (19-9) (Welterweight)
Charles Jourdain (10-3) vs. Josh Culibao (8-1) (Featherweight)
Jordan Williams (9-3) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (8-2) (Middleweight)
Loma Lookboonmee (4-2) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (9-5) (Women's Strawweight)
Casey Kenney (14-2-1) vs. Heili Alateng (14-7-1) (Bantamweight)
Luigi Vendramini (8-1) vs. Jessin Ayari (16-5) (Lightweight)

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Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Oct 02 2020 22:33. Posts 12091

My only bets for this card:

• Holly Holm -120 $120 for $100
• Julianna Pena +110 $100 for $110

• Parlay: Jourdain, Frey, McGee, Chiefs -3.5 (vs. Ravens) $11.41 for $163.55

----------

First impression of the match-ups:

• Holm > Aldana
• Castro > Felipe
• Pena > GDR
• Todorovic > Townsend
• Phillips > Else
• McGee > Condit
• Jourdain > Culibao
• Imavov > Williams
• Frey > Lookboonmee
• Kenney > Alateng
• Ayari > Vendramini

Rekrul is a newb 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 02 2020 23:58. Posts 303

Parlayed Castro and Todorovic, gambled on Alateng and lottery parlay on Culibao via KO/TKO - Else via sub.. Waiting fof Pena line to improve more.


captainhook   Canada. Oct 03 2020 01:18. Posts 303

Just bet Imavov.


PuertoRican   United States. Oct 03 2020 05:40. Posts 12091

By the way, I am NOT confident in either of my 2 bets.

It's not a great card, but there are a couple of spots to make some money on. I just don't see any fight I feel comfortable betting more than $100 on.

Rekrul is a newb 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 03 2020 06:25. Posts 303

^ I'd take Pena at +250 and up.

And parlayed the Jourdain bout not to he the distance with the Philips bout not to go the distance.

 Last edit: 03/10/2020 06:27

PplusAD   Germany. Oct 03 2020 15:14. Posts 7179

Ayari > Vendramini would be a pretty save bet skillwise.
Ayari is my former main training partner and good friend.

However there are 2 things that dont make this a 100%

1.) Ayari has shown in the past that he is better in training than in fights since he has some kinda mental blockade when there is so much on the line.
I talked to him right before his last fight that he lost on controversal descision. (I think it was a boring fight but he still won on points. Judges gave the win to the other guy)

Ayari assured me 5h before the fight in a phone call that he will go all out and try to kill the other guy.
What happend later was completely different. He was afraid and tried to win on points by outpointfighting the other guy
i was watching the fight in schock and and mumbling to myself ... dude what did you tell me 5h ago ??? and what are you doing now ???

2.) Ayari had some heavy injuries during the last 2 years and the last big injury was kinda recent.
I am not even sure it is 100% healed

So well
I know for fact Ayari is much better than Vendramini skillwise.

Still there are 2 quesition marks.
I d say 70% chance Ayari destroys him
30% chance mental blockade or injury not healed

U see what i did there with A8 ? He 4 bets and there we go insta jam A8 : ---booooom -- . hahahaha ( Krantz) 

PuertoRican   United States. Oct 03 2020 21:58. Posts 12091


  On October 03 2020 14:14 PplusAD wrote:
Ayari > Vendramini would be a pretty save bet skillwise.
Ayari is my former main training partner and good friend.

However there are 2 things that dont make this a 100%

1.) Ayari has shown in the past that he is better in training than in fights since he has some kinda mental blockade when there is so much on the line.
I talked to him right before his last fight that he lost on controversal descision. (I think it was a boring fight but he still won on points. Judges gave the win to the other guy)

Ayari assured me 5h before the fight in a phone call that he will go all out and try to kill the other guy.
What happend later was completely different. He was afraid and tried to win on points by outpointfighting the other guy
i was watching the fight in schock and and mumbling to myself ... dude what did you tell me 5h ago ??? and what are you doing now ???

2.) Ayari had some heavy injuries during the last 2 years and the last big injury was kinda recent.
I am not even sure it is 100% healed

So well
I know for fact Ayari is much better than Vendramini skillwise.

Still there are 2 quesition marks.
I d say 70% chance Ayari destroys him
30% chance mental blockade or injury not healed


I have no bets on Ayari/Vendramini, as they both haven't fought for 2 years.

Ayari might not be 100%, but I assume he's well enough to take this fight. He hasn't fought since October 2018 and didn't need to fly all the way in Abu Dhabi if he wasn't ready to fight yet.

Ayari just needs to avoid giving up his back to Vendramini, and he should be able to win a boring, low volume unanimous decision.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Oct 03 2020 22:33. Posts 12091




Bellator Europe main card is on YouTube.

Rekrul is a newb 

PplusAD   Germany. Oct 03 2020 23:33. Posts 7179


  On October 03 2020 20:58 PuertoRican wrote:

I have no bets on Ayari/Vendramini, as they both haven't fought for 2 years.

Ayari might not be 100%, but I assume he's well enough to take this fight. He hasn't fought since October 2018 and didn't need to fly all the way in Abu Dhabi if he wasn't ready to fight yet.
Ayari just needs to avoid giving up his back to Vendramini, and he should be able to win a boring, low volume unanimous decision.



Ayari is better than this guy on the ground.
What he has not shown us in the ufc but what i know since it was my main training partner in 2010-2012
Ayari started as a BJJ guy and did submit brazilian (guys from brazil) BJJ black belts in training camps even 8 years ago.
he picked up boxing pretty late.

His roots are Wrestling and BJJ.
But for some reason the last years he tried to become a boxer.
As with many BJJ guys who got into boxing late it didnt turn out too fantastic imo

U see what i did there with A8 ? He 4 bets and there we go insta jam A8 : ---booooom -- . hahahaha ( Krantz)Last edit: 03/10/2020 23:35

PuertoRican   United States. Oct 03 2020 23:46. Posts 12091


  On October 02 2020 21:33 PuertoRican wrote:
My only bets for this card:

• Holly Holm -120 $120 for $100
• Julianna Pena +110 $100 for $110

• Parlay: Jourdain, Frey, McGee, Chiefs -3.5 (vs. Ravens) $11.41 for $163.55

----------

First impression of the match-ups:

• Holm > Aldana
• Castro > Felipe
• Pena > GDR
• Todorovic > Townsend
• Phillips > Else
• McGee > Condit
• Jourdain > Culibao
• Imavov > Williams
• Frey > Lookboonmee
• Kenney > Alateng
• Ayari > Vendramini


My only bets for this card:

• Holly Holm -120 $120 for $100
• Julianna Pena +110 $100 for $110
• Parlay: Jourdain, Frey, McGee, Chiefs -3.5 (vs. Ravens) $11.41 for $163.55

My final picks:

• Holm > Aldana
• Castro > Felipe
• Pena > GDR
• Todorovic > Townsend
• Phillips > Else
• Condit > McGee (I switched because I think this is a good MU for Condit, as long as McGee fights like he usually does and is willing to brawl.)
• Jourdain > Culibao
• Imavov > Williams
• Lookboonmee > Frey (I switched because Lookboonmee will win on points if Frey can't land big shots on her in R1 to slow her down. I still think it's a close fight.)
• Kenney > Alateng (If Kenney doesn't get a quick submission, he won't look like a -345 favorite.)
• Ayari > Vendramini


My main focus this week is the late slate on DraftKings (last 8 fights on tonight's card).

As mentioned above, I think this is a good MU for Carlos Condit, which will surprise a lot of people if McGee fights his usual style. McGee can focus more on grinding and attempting take downs, but if he doesn't, Condit will have a good shot at winning and scoring 80+ points.

Casey Kenney isn't on the late slate, so I don't need to worry about his fight. That being said, I think that if Kenney can't get a quick submission, he won't score a high number and will ruin your DraftKings team(s). Alateng is a wrestler, which is Kenney's best skill. They have different styles of wrestling, so it should be interesting to see what happens if there are scrambles. Kenney is the better grappler, but if he can't get it to the ground, it will be an ugly striking match where Kenney might win, but he won pay off his $9,000 price tag on DraftKings.

Nassourdine Imavov opened as the underdog and is now the favorite on the sports books. He is the underdog at $7,500 on DraftKings. I expect him to be very popular, and I will have him in most of my late slate teams.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Oct 04 2020 00:53. Posts 12091

Nice finishing sequence from Vendramini.

Rekrul is a newb 

PplusAD   Germany. Oct 04 2020 01:14. Posts 7179

It was pretty horrible for me watching this.....

Jessin threw a right cross and Vendramini slipped it perfetly to the left and counterd with a right straight to the chin followed by the left hook you saw on tv that hurt Jessin.
The right cross was too slow for Vendramini and he slipped it perfetly and easily

My sad conclusion that happens over and over again.
BJJ guys wont become good Boxers....
No matter how hard they try

Sadface


  On October 03 2020 22:33 PplusAD wrote:


His roots are Wrestling and BJJ.
But for some reason the last years he tried to become a boxer.
As with many BJJ guys who got into boxing late it didnt turn out too fantastic imo

U see what i did there with A8 ? He 4 bets and there we go insta jam A8 : ---booooom -- . hahahaha ( Krantz)Last edit: 04/10/2020 01:15

captainhook   Canada. Oct 04 2020 01:26. Posts 303

There goes my Alatang money.


PuertoRican   United States. Oct 04 2020 01:36. Posts 12091

Casey Kenney showed physical and striking improvement in this fight, but he was a bad pick on DK at $9000, as expected.

His final score = 84.5 points

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Oct 04 2020 02:32. Posts 12091

Nice brawl between Imavov and Williams.

Rekrul is a newb 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 04 2020 03:01. Posts 303

Nice showing for Culibao. I hope he's an underdog in his next bout.

... Or a favorite vs a Minner type of guy.

 Last edit: 04/10/2020 03:36

PuertoRican   United States. Oct 04 2020 03:02. Posts 12091

WTF??????????????

No fucking way that was a 28-28 or even a 29-28 got Culibao!

That draw ruined any DraftKing/FanDuel team with Jourdain and Culibao.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Oct 04 2020 03:31. Posts 12091

Nice win for Condit. I assumed he got R1 cuz of the KD at the end of the round, and R2 and R3 were close with both guys mostly hitting air.

Seemed like a high paced sparring match.

Rekrul is a newb 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 04 2020 03:32. Posts 303

Haha Condit showed everybody.


 
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