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PuertoRican   United States. Nov 25 2019 07:11. Posts 13024 | | |
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PuertoRican   United States. Nov 25 2019 07:15. Posts 13024 | | |
I will land in Las Vegas at 9pm on Friday, December 13. I will be in Vegas mainly to bet on some fights and maybe go to the event live.
If any of you will be in Vegas from December 13-14, lemme know.
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First impression of the match-ups:
• Covington > Usman
• Holloway vs. Volkanovski (dunno)
• Nunes vs. Randamie (dunno)
• Moraes vs. Aldo (dunno)
• Yan > Faber
• Neal > Perry
• Vieira > Aldana
• Brown > Saunders
• Akhmedov > Heinisch
• Hooper vs. Teymur (dunno)
• France > Moreno
• Eye vs. Araujo (dunno)
• Soriano vs. Piechota (dunno) |
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traxamillion   United States. Nov 26 2019 03:23. Posts 10468 | | |
I'm hoping the line swings more towards Usman and I can get a large bet in on Colby. Also going to parlay moraes with someone (probably nunes).
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Baalim   Mexico. Nov 27 2019 08:56. Posts 34246 | | |
Puertorican when you post your predictions are you taking into account the odds?
Lets say somebody is a 4 to 1 dog, when you chose him you mean he wins 20%+ of the time rather than 50% right? |
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Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online | |
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iakim322   United States. Nov 27 2019 09:18. Posts 1335 | | |
Hey guys. Explain the picks on Colby a bit?
I too like Colby at plus odds but have no reasons in regards to the actual matchup vs Usman. Just know that Colby is showing up better each time, esp his striking, and people will continually underrate his actual ability because of his persona |
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PuertoRican   United States. Nov 27 2019 10:42. Posts 13024 | | |
| On November 27 2019 07:56 Baalim wrote:
Puertorican when you post your predictions are you taking into account the odds?
Lets say somebody is a 4 to 1 dog, when you chose him you mean he wins 20%+ of the time rather than 50% right? |
I post my predictions at two different times: I give predictions when I first make a UFC thread, and right before a UFC event starts.
I never look at the odds when I post my predictions, I only post who I think will win the fight.
Back when I used to be heavy into betting on fights, I would post my bets with odds here at LP.net, but now I only play on DraftKings and post who I think will win a fight. |
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PuertoRican   United States. Nov 27 2019 10:49. Posts 13024 | | |
| On November 27 2019 08:18 iakim322 wrote:
Hey guys. Explain the picks on Colby a bit?
I too like Colby at plus odds but have no reasons in regards to the actual matchup vs Usman. Just know that Colby is showing up better each time, esp his striking, and people will continually underrate his actual ability because of his persona |
Almost every MMA fighter and bettor is on Usman from what I've heard thus far, and several of them are saying Usman is the better striker, while others say he has more power.
Usman has more power, but it's because he wings punches and has no technique. Colby's striking improves in every fight, and his striking is better than Usman's striking.
I think we'll see some clinching against the cage at some points, but I think Colby is going to win a decision via striking. He needs to improve his striking defense though, as he doesn't mind getting hit, and his white skin gets marked up easy. |
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PacnyTuH0   Netherlands. Nov 27 2019 11:48. Posts 14 | | |
Aldo at +150 and above seems very juice to me. This seems like a total mismatch to me where Aldo should absolutely destroy Moraes.
The only issue I have is with the weight cut for Aldo. He had trouble making 145 before and nobody knows whether he will make 135 and what his condition will be.
I'm thinking of betting both on Aldo and Covington and + odds and if only one of them wins I could still end up in profit. |
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Nazgul   Netherlands. Nov 29 2019 13:28. Posts 7080 | | |
Not a huge fan of the main event but this card is actually damn solid overall.
Decided to make some bets on Holloway (-170), Nunes (-300) and Aldo (+160).
Especially Nunes -300 seems like a steal so went pretty big on that one. |
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You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmo | |
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PuertoRican   United States. Nov 29 2019 22:07. Posts 13024 | | |
| On November 29 2019 12:28 Nazgul wrote:
Not a huge fan of the main event but this card is actually damn solid overall.
Decided to make some bets on Holloway (-170), Nunes (-300) and Aldo (+160).
Especially Nunes -300 seems like a steal so went pretty big on that one. |
I'm not totally sure about Nunes in the fight. I think I'll end up having a bet on GDR.
I am waiting to see the weigh-in before I even think about betting on Aldo. This will be Aldo's first cut to 135, and he complained of his cut to 145 being difficult. |
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i kind of feel like moraes and aldo are really similar fighters, but who knows how aldos chin holds up at a lower weight class (i'm skeptical)
GDR seems like really good value
kind of bearish on holloway. feel like he may struggle against volk
think colby will outwork usman. usmans striking is not really good. granted, colbys isn't either, but i think colby's all around game is more technical
on a side note, funny to think how jessica eye co-mained the last time she fought, and now she's on the early prelims. sick life. |
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| Last edit: 30/11/2019 13:24 |
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Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Dec 01 2019 00:44. Posts 9634 | | |
I think Usman smashes Covington with ease considering what he did to Woodley
The dude improves in every fight tremendously |
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| Last edit: 01/12/2019 00:44 |
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iakim322   United States. Dec 01 2019 01:18. Posts 1335 | | |
Colby fights almost literally the opposite from Woodley style wise on the feet
Kinda like Aldo but the TJ/Cejudo fight should be a warning for people big on Aldo. Cutting 10 at the lower weights is a lot. Esp for an older guy
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PuertoRican   United States. Dec 01 2019 01:54. Posts 13024 | | |
| On November 30 2019 23:44 Spitfiree wrote:
I think Usman smashes Covington with ease considering what he did to Woodley
The dude improves in every fight tremendously |
You can pick Usman to win, but don't pick him to win because of how he beat Woodley.
Aside from having wrestling as their main skill, Woodley and Covington are nothing alike. They don't even wrestle the same. |
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Nazgul   Netherlands. Dec 02 2019 00:27. Posts 7080 | | |
| On November 29 2019 21:07 PuertoRican wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 29 2019 12:28 Nazgul wrote:
Not a huge fan of the main event but this card is actually damn solid overall.
Decided to make some bets on Holloway (-170), Nunes (-300) and Aldo (+160).
Especially Nunes -300 seems like a steal so went pretty big on that one. |
I'm not totally sure about Nunes in the fight. I think I'll end up having a bet on GDR.
I am waiting to see the weigh-in before I even think about betting on Aldo. This will be Aldo's first cut to 135, and he complained of his cut to 145 being difficult.
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You're right, Aldo is probably more nostalgia for me than anything. Would have expected more excitement for Nunes' chances though. Either way I'm excited for this card. |
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You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmo | |
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PuertoRican   United States. Dec 02 2019 01:04. Posts 13024 | | |
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PuertoRican   United States. Dec 06 2019 04:58. Posts 13024 | | |
| On December 01 2019 23:27 Nazgul wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 29 2019 21:07 PuertoRican wrote:
| On November 29 2019 12:28 Nazgul wrote:
Not a huge fan of the main event but this card is actually damn solid overall.
Decided to make some bets on Holloway (-170), Nunes (-300) and Aldo (+160).
Especially Nunes -300 seems like a steal so went pretty big on that one. |
I'm not totally sure about Nunes in the fight. I think I'll end up having a bet on GDR.
I am waiting to see the weigh-in before I even think about betting on Aldo. This will be Aldo's first cut to 135, and he complained of his cut to 145 being difficult.
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You're right, Aldo is probably more nostalgia for me than anything. Would have expected more excitement for Nunes' chances though. Either way I'm excited for this card. |
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Baalim   Mexico. Dec 06 2019 07:41. Posts 34246 | | |
I saw the same tweet... blind bet against Aldo ez |
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Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online | |
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traxamillion   United States. Dec 06 2019 21:32. Posts 10468 | | |
Aldo struggles to make 145 especially at this age and he is in general decline while Moraes is quite good. Aldo is the rightful dog and there is likely value on Moraes at odds considering most of the casual money will come in on Aldo on name recognition. Like people said above let TJ be a warning about moving down crazy amounts (Rumble too, among others). Aldo obv does better if they fight at 145
Usman's cardio is being overrated due to the fight vs a stagnant and seemingly sedated Woodley. He is still the bigger and stronger fighter but I believe colby will have the better cardio and has a good chin so he has an excellent chance to win the later rounds and a 5 round decision. I believe 5 rounds vs 3 benefits Colby quite a bit.
Woodley should be favored imo but it is close and if I can get Colby anywhere near 2:1 I'm all in |
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| Last edit: 06/12/2019 21:34 |
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traxamillion   United States. Dec 06 2019 21:36. Posts 10468 | | |
Also I think a lot of the casuals betting Aldo might not even be aware that he is moving down significantly to take this fight. Like the dudes just drinking and gambling at the sportsbook in Vegas on fight night, looking for random action while watching the fights |
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| Last edit: 06/12/2019 21:36 |
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