https://www.liquidpoker.net/


LP international Poland    Contact            Users: 219 Active, 1 Logged in - Time: 00:46

UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington

New to LiquidPoker? Register here for free!
Forum Index > Sports and Betting
PuertoRican   United States. Nov 25 2019 07:11. Posts 11555

Date: Saturday, December 14
Preliminary Card (ESPN+): 00:30 LP.net / 3:30pm PST / 6:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (ESPN): 2:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (ESPN): 4:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://crackstreams.com/mma/2/




Main Card (ESPN+)

Kamaru Usman (15-1) vs. Colby Covington (15-1) (Welterweight Championship)
Max Holloway (21-4) vs. Alexander Volkanovski (20-1) (Featherweight Championship)
Amanda Nunes (18-4) vs. Germaine de Randamie (9-3) (Women's Bantamweight Championship)
Marlon Moraes (22-6-1) vs. Jose Aldo (28-5) (Bantamweight)
Petr Yan (13-1) vs. Urijah Faber (35-10) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (ESPN2)

Geoff Neal (12-2) vs. Mike Perry (13-5) (weight)
Ketlen Vieira (10-0) vs. Irene Aldana (11-5) (weight)
Matt Brown (21-16) vs. Ben Saunders (22-12-2) (weight)
Omari Akhmedov (19-4-1) vs. Ian Heinisch (13-2) (weight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Chase Hooper (6-0-1) vs. Daniel Teymur (7-3) (weight)
Brandon Moreno (15-5-1) vs. Kai Kara-France (20-7) (weight)
Jessica Eye (14-7) vs. Viviane Araujo (8-1) (weight)
Punahele Soriano (6-0) vs. Oskar Piechota (11-2-1) (weight)

Other

- Sergio Pettis was briefly linked to a bout with Kai Kara-France at the event. However, Pettis revealed in early October that he was entertaining offers from other promotions after the completion of his previous contract and did not currently have a fight lined up with the promotion. Kara-France replaced Pettis on October 4.

Facebook Twitter
Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Nov 25 2019 07:15. Posts 11555

I will land in Las Vegas at 9pm on Friday, December 13. I will be in Vegas mainly to bet on some fights and maybe go to the event live.

If any of you will be in Vegas from December 13-14, lemme know.

----------

First impression of the match-ups:

• Covington > Usman
• Holloway vs. Volkanovski (dunno)
• Nunes vs. Randamie (dunno)
• Moraes vs. Aldo (dunno)
• Yan > Faber
• Neal > Perry
• Vieira > Aldana
• Brown > Saunders
• Akhmedov > Heinisch
• Hooper vs. Teymur (dunno)
• France > Moreno
• Eye vs. Araujo (dunno)
• Soriano vs. Piechota (dunno)

Rekrul is a newb 

traxamillion   United States. Nov 26 2019 03:23. Posts 10443

I'm hoping the line swings more towards Usman and I can get a large bet in on Colby. Also going to parlay moraes with someone (probably nunes).


Baalim   Mexico. Nov 27 2019 08:56. Posts 33117

Puertorican when you post your predictions are you taking into account the odds?

Lets say somebody is a 4 to 1 dog, when you chose him you mean he wins 20%+ of the time rather than 50% right?

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

iakim322   United States. Nov 27 2019 09:18. Posts 1334

Hey guys. Explain the picks on Colby a bit?

I too like Colby at plus odds but have no reasons in regards to the actual matchup vs Usman. Just know that Colby is showing up better each time, esp his striking, and people will continually underrate his actual ability because of his persona


PuertoRican   United States. Nov 27 2019 10:42. Posts 11555


  On November 27 2019 07:56 Baalim wrote:
Puertorican when you post your predictions are you taking into account the odds?

Lets say somebody is a 4 to 1 dog, when you chose him you mean he wins 20%+ of the time rather than 50% right?


I post my predictions at two different times: I give predictions when I first make a UFC thread, and right before a UFC event starts.

I never look at the odds when I post my predictions, I only post who I think will win the fight.

Back when I used to be heavy into betting on fights, I would post my bets with odds here at LP.net, but now I only play on DraftKings and post who I think will win a fight.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Nov 27 2019 10:49. Posts 11555


  On November 27 2019 08:18 iakim322 wrote:
Hey guys. Explain the picks on Colby a bit?

I too like Colby at plus odds but have no reasons in regards to the actual matchup vs Usman. Just know that Colby is showing up better each time, esp his striking, and people will continually underrate his actual ability because of his persona


Almost every MMA fighter and bettor is on Usman from what I've heard thus far, and several of them are saying Usman is the better striker, while others say he has more power.

Usman has more power, but it's because he wings punches and has no technique. Colby's striking improves in every fight, and his striking is better than Usman's striking.

I think we'll see some clinching against the cage at some points, but I think Colby is going to win a decision via striking. He needs to improve his striking defense though, as he doesn't mind getting hit, and his white skin gets marked up easy.

Rekrul is a newb 

PacnyTuH0   Netherlands. Nov 27 2019 11:48. Posts 14

Aldo at +150 and above seems very juice to me. This seems like a total mismatch to me where Aldo should absolutely destroy Moraes.
The only issue I have is with the weight cut for Aldo. He had trouble making 145 before and nobody knows whether he will make 135 and what his condition will be.

I'm thinking of betting both on Aldo and Covington and + odds and if only one of them wins I could still end up in profit.


Nazgul    Netherlands. Nov 29 2019 13:28. Posts 7069

Not a huge fan of the main event but this card is actually damn solid overall.

Decided to make some bets on Holloway (-170), Nunes (-300) and Aldo (+160).

Especially Nunes -300 seems like a steal so went pretty big on that one.

You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmo 

PuertoRican   United States. Nov 29 2019 22:07. Posts 11555


  On November 29 2019 12:28 Nazgul wrote:
Not a huge fan of the main event but this card is actually damn solid overall.

Decided to make some bets on Holloway (-170), Nunes (-300) and Aldo (+160).

Especially Nunes -300 seems like a steal so went pretty big on that one.


I'm not totally sure about Nunes in the fight. I think I'll end up having a bet on GDR.

I am waiting to see the weigh-in before I even think about betting on Aldo. This will be Aldo's first cut to 135, and he complained of his cut to 145 being difficult.

Rekrul is a newb 

Into Infinity   United States. Nov 30 2019 13:23. Posts 1823

i kind of feel like moraes and aldo are really similar fighters, but who knows how aldos chin holds up at a lower weight class (i'm skeptical)

GDR seems like really good value

kind of bearish on holloway. feel like he may struggle against volk

think colby will outwork usman. usmans striking is not really good. granted, colbys isn't either, but i think colby's all around game is more technical

on a side note, funny to think how jessica eye co-mained the last time she fought, and now she's on the early prelims. sick life.

 Last edit: 30/11/2019 13:24

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Dec 01 2019 00:44. Posts 8889

I think Usman smashes Covington with ease considering what he did to Woodley

The dude improves in every fight tremendously

 Last edit: 01/12/2019 00:44

iakim322   United States. Dec 01 2019 01:18. Posts 1334

Colby fights almost literally the opposite from Woodley style wise on the feet

Kinda like Aldo but the TJ/Cejudo fight should be a warning for people big on Aldo. Cutting 10 at the lower weights is a lot. Esp for an older guy


PuertoRican   United States. Dec 01 2019 01:54. Posts 11555


  On November 30 2019 23:44 Spitfiree wrote:
I think Usman smashes Covington with ease considering what he did to Woodley

The dude improves in every fight tremendously


You can pick Usman to win, but don't pick him to win because of how he beat Woodley.

Aside from having wrestling as their main skill, Woodley and Covington are nothing alike. They don't even wrestle the same.

Rekrul is a newb 

Nazgul    Netherlands. Dec 02 2019 00:27. Posts 7069


  On November 29 2019 21:07 PuertoRican wrote:
Show nested quote +


I'm not totally sure about Nunes in the fight. I think I'll end up having a bet on GDR.

I am waiting to see the weigh-in before I even think about betting on Aldo. This will be Aldo's first cut to 135, and he complained of his cut to 145 being difficult.

You're right, Aldo is probably more nostalgia for me than anything. Would have expected more excitement for Nunes' chances though. Either way I'm excited for this card.

You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmo 

PuertoRican   United States. Dec 02 2019 01:04. Posts 11555

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Dec 06 2019 04:58. Posts 11555


  On December 01 2019 23:27 Nazgul wrote:
Show nested quote +


You're right, Aldo is probably more nostalgia for me than anything. Would have expected more excitement for Nunes' chances though. Either way I'm excited for this card.


Rekrul is a newb 

Baalim   Mexico. Dec 06 2019 07:41. Posts 33117

I saw the same tweet... blind bet against Aldo ez

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

traxamillion   United States. Dec 06 2019 21:32. Posts 10443

Aldo struggles to make 145 especially at this age and he is in general decline while Moraes is quite good. Aldo is the rightful dog and there is likely value on Moraes at odds considering most of the casual money will come in on Aldo on name recognition. Like people said above let TJ be a warning about moving down crazy amounts (Rumble too, among others). Aldo obv does better if they fight at 145

Usman's cardio is being overrated due to the fight vs a stagnant and seemingly sedated Woodley. He is still the bigger and stronger fighter but I believe colby will have the better cardio and has a good chin so he has an excellent chance to win the later rounds and a 5 round decision. I believe 5 rounds vs 3 benefits Colby quite a bit.
Woodley should be favored imo but it is close and if I can get Colby anywhere near 2:1 I'm all in

 Last edit: 06/12/2019 21:34

traxamillion   United States. Dec 06 2019 21:36. Posts 10443

Also I think a lot of the casuals betting Aldo might not even be aware that he is moving down significantly to take this fight. Like the dudes just drinking and gambling at the sportsbook in Vegas on fight night, looking for random action while watching the fights

 Last edit: 06/12/2019 21:36

 



Poker Streams

















Copyright © 2019. LiquidPoker.net All Rights Reserved
Contact Advertise Sitemap