
deathstar United States. Dec 05 2017 13:37. Posts 111   
Say we have A5s and want to know the chances that the board flops a gutshot.
Whats the chance we flop 32x 42x or 43x with a5s? 

 Last edit: 05/12/2017 13:47 



Stroggoz New Zealand. Dec 05 2017 20:05. Posts 4833   
probability was the area of math i didnt study
I imagine this is a simple combinatorics problem. Havn't done this in a while, but you represent all possible flops as the sample space, there are 22,100 of them i think. Then represent flopping a gutshot as an event.
The formula will look like P(A) = A/S, where P(A) is probably of the event of flopping a gutshot, and A=size of event, S=size of sample space.
ill use combinations instead of permutations, so order doesn't matter.
the sample space of all flops is 52!/(3!x49!)=22,100
Can't figure out the event of flopping a gutshot right now. 

supposed to have greenstar not bracelet  



deathstar United States. Dec 06 2017 19:25. Posts 111   
Your math is weird Stroggoz. That's some event horizon mathematics.


 Last edit: 06/12/2017 19:26 



deathstar United States. Dec 07 2017 02:58. Posts 111   
50*49*48=117600
117600 different flops 



Stroggoz New Zealand. Dec 07 2017 06:29. Posts 4833   
sure, its 117600 different flops if order matters, but it doesn't. there is no difference between AdKdTs and TsKdAd. there are 6 ways to order every flop, and therefore you divide 117600 by 6 and get 22,100. well actually, you dont since i wasn't counting 2 cards in my hand


supposed to have greenstar not bracelet  Last edit: 07/12/2017 06:30 



Oly United Kingdom. Dec 12 2017 09:41. Posts 3585   
(12x8x46+12x43x8+40x12x8)/(52x51x50)
Whatever that is. This excludes flopping straights. 

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legitxeris United States. Sep 15 2018 07:30. Posts 4   
I don't think it is even worth knowing because the chances are probably 5% or a lot less.
If you wanted to know if an As/10s would have a high chance of flopping a straight or flush draw or top pair, then I would be interested. 


 
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 Last edit: 02/03/2021 03:53 



asdf2000 United States. Feb 11 2021 17:44. Posts 7622   
combinatorics is hard
anyways flopzilla says the odds are about 7%. But i think that might be the odds of it happening without something bigger happening?
((4*4*44)/6)/19600)*3
this seems like it would be right to me but that total about 15%... 

Grindin so hard, Im smashin pussies left and right.  Last edit: 11/02/2021 19:18 


 
23x = 4/50 * 4/49 * 44/48 = .6 (excludes 4's)
2x3 = 4/50 * 45/49 * 4/48 = .61
32x = same as 1
3x2 = same as 2
x23 = 46/50 * 4/49 * 4/48 = .63
x32 = same as 5
all of that * 3
= 11%


 Last edit: 21/02/2021 06:56 


 

 Last edit: 02/03/2021 20:25 


