UFC on FOX 22: VanZant vs. Waterson

Date: Saturday, December 17th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 21:30 LP.net / 12:30pm PST / 3:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 23:00 LP.net / 2pm PST / 5pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 2:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/





Main Card (FOX)

Paige VanZant (7-2) vs. Michelle Waterson (13-4) (Women's Strawweight)
Sage Northcutt (8-1) vs. Mickey Gall (3-0) (Welterweight)
Urijah Faber (33-10) vs. Brad Pickett (25-12) (Bantamweight)
Alan Jouban (14-4) vs. Mike Perry (9-0) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Luis Henrique da Silva (12-0) vs. Paul Craig (8-0) (Light Heavyweight)
Cole Miller (21-10) vs. Mizuto Hirota (17-7-2) (Featherweight)
Bryan Barberena (12-3) vs. Colby Covington (10-1) (Welterweight)
James Moontasri (9-4) vs. Alex Morono (12-3) (Welterweight)
Josh Emmett (10-0) vs. Scott Holtzman (9-1) (Lightweight)
Leslie Smith (8-7-1) vs. Irene Aldana (7-2) (Women's Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Eddie Wineland (22-11-1) vs. Takeya Mizugaki (21-10-2) (Bantamweight)
Hector Sandoval (12-3) vs. Fredy Serrano (3-1) (Flyweight)
Bojan Velickovic (14-3-1) vs. Sultan Aliev (13-2) (Welterweight)

Other

- The event features the final fight of both Urijah Faber and Brad Pickett before they head into retirement.

First impression of the match-ups:

• PVZ > Waterson
• Gall > Northcutt
• Faber > Pickett
• Perry > Jouban
• Silva > Craig
• Hirota > Miller
• Covington > Barberena
• Moontasri > Morono
• Emmett > Holtzman
• Aldana > Smith
• Wineland > Mizugaki
• Sandoval > Serrano
• Velickovic > Aliev

Decent little card here. Some fun matchups.

PVZ > Waterson* -Changed mind, PVZ too big, strong, and athletic should be able to bully the Karate Hottie.
Gall > Northcutt - Fun fun
Faber > Pickett - Not a terrible matchup for Pickett though, his wrestling has consistently been good
Perry vs Jouban - Pickem - Just can't go against that chin. Jouban is a better fighter though and I think he wins if he fights smart and mixes in some grappling early.
Silva vs Craig - Dunno
Hirota > Miller
Covington > Barberena
Moontasri vs Morono - Dunno
Emmett vs Holtzman - Dunno yet - I'm thinking the odds look too wide
Aldana > Smith
Wineland vs Mizugaki - Pickem
Sandoval > Serrano
Velikovic > Aliev

You guys really think Gall can/will take Northcutt?

After re-watching Waterson vs Magana I'm on PVZ. I thought too highly of Waterson, she's slick sith subs and flexible, but she's just gonna be too small and not athletic enough to deal with PVZ's size, strength, and cardio/output.

PVZ via decision or late stoppage.

On December 13 2016 04:06 Minsk wrote: You guys really think Gall can/will take Northcutt?

Yes. Northcutt is greener despite records, and makes all kinda of mistakes that Gall should be able to turn those into a sub

Like PVZ a lot here. Never was high on Waterson. And as said, she's tiny. Maybe late stoppage from ground and pound from PVZ

Gall > Northcutt. Then CM Punk fights Nortcutt for another circus

Faber vs Pickett basically in 2017 is really uninteresting

Wanted to say Jouban > Perry but I could see the fight going kinda like Perry's last fight. Should be the best fight on the card

On December 13 2016 23:19 iakim322 wrote: Faber vs Pickett basically in 2017 is really uninteresting.

What about Faber vs. Pickett in 2016?

Still uninteresting?

lol

How many bets is enough to be considered a relatively stable sample size in sportsbetting where STD.deviation is pretty reliable. Anyone know? Like 200k hands in poker.

On December 14 2016 04:38 Minsk wrote: How many bets is enough to be considered a relatively stable sample size in sportsbetting where STD.deviation is pretty reliable. Anyone know? Like 200k hands in poker.

Probably have a pretty decent idea after a couple hundred bets, if not less. Then again, I did really well over a 250 bet period and then lost a lot over the next like 30 or 40 bets, but as lot of that was degeneracy and sizing, which is a part of being a winner like everything else that I personally have a hard time with.

A bigtime Vegas bookie I was listening to said that for sure you should be able to hit lines at the right time and predict movement consistently on big fights before you can really consider yourself possibly sharp, that's the easiest way to tell if you have any edge yet at all but it still doesn't mean you are amazing or anything, especially if you are going to be betting undercard fights, etc.

Didn't you say MMA was too random to beat?

Maybe not a very relevant card but still a fun Main card.

I am pumped for the Perry vs Jouban fight as they have exciting styles

Hah, love it. #wolftickets

Definitely the people's main event.

On December 14 2016 05:17 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On December 14 2016 04:38 Minsk wrote: How many bets is enough to be considered a relatively stable sample size in sportsbetting where STD.deviation is pretty reliable. Anyone know? Like 200k hands in poker. Probably have a pretty decent idea after a couple hundred bets, if not less. Then again, I did really well over a 250 bet period and then lost a lot over the next like 30 or 40 bets, but as lot of that was degeneracy and sizing, which is a part of being a winner like everything else that I personally have a hard time with. A bigtime Vegas bookie I was listening to said that for sure you should be able to hit lines at the right time and predict movement consistently on big fights before you can really consider yourself possibly sharp, that's the easiest way to tell if you have any edge yet at all but it still doesn't mean you are amazing or anything, especially if you are going to be betting undercard fights, etc. Didn't you say MMA was too random to beat?

I mean, I started experimenting in other avenues of life, stopped betting real money after losing a lot, now I'm at a 33% ROI after tracking 106 bets without betting. I'm not sure, probably gonna drop it, but its a hard ROI to abandon. I also have too much going on in life, and betting takes a lot of time on research + watching.

What I said about too random, was more a frustration, and what I meant was that it was too hard for me, and took too much time. but after continuing tracking the bets, I ended up with 33% ROI after 106 bets, so I'm confused. I do feel like I'm making good choices, and when I started I just didn't know enough about the sport, but also feel it takes a lot of time, probably too much to make it worth it.

There's two types of betting, one is betting the lines and one is predicting the winner, you can be good at one but not the other. So what that bookie said doesn't make much sense.

The bookie is citing 2 important factors/skills that are extremely relevant to having a positive winrate. Makes perfect sense to me.

Betting certainly isnt binary into betting winners and betting lines. Simply picking winners/losers doesnt really mean anything the price matters. Of course many who simply pick winners/losers with some success will be horrible at betting lines; the opposite would not be true.

I'm kind of split on Northcutt decision vs Gall submission but am fairly confident it should be 1 of these 2 outcomes a vast majority of the time, so I bet it that way.

Nice workout from the karate hottie

https://www.facebook.com/mmafighting/videos/10154908807764479/

My only bet here: Sage Northcutt 20 bucks to win 39

Cant see PVZ without thinking Protoss vs Zerg

Pre-card bets:

Moneyline & Props Single Bets:

+ Show Spoiler +

Parlays:

+ Show Spoiler +

My finals for this semester are finally over...

I'll be here tomorrow for this event. Let's make some money.

On December 17 2016 08:08 PuertoRican wrote: Let's make some money.

Sure let me copy your bets :D

On December 14 2016 00:22 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On December 13 2016 23:19 iakim322 wrote: Faber vs Pickett basically in 2017 is really uninteresting. What about Faber vs. Pickett in 2016? Still uninteresting?

Ey to be fair, I would've still been somewhat still interested in Faber fights if he just didn't look like he could pull the trigger anymore in his two '16 fights thus far. But I guess I'm overlooking that his opponents were really good. He doesn't actually sound like a guy really embracing his last fight/retirement. Like him but hopefully Pickett doesn't make him look like a world beater (obv more than possible) and he doesn't fall into like Faber-Cruz 4 somehow

Rewatched PVZ's last fight and kinda made me now pass on the main though Rawlings doesn't fight like Waterson. Changed pick from Gall to Sage and going with Silva, Moontsari, and Jouban. Hopefully Sage shows some fight IQ improvements, we get to see more than a minute of Gall, and Jouban-Perry doesn't disappoint

My DK teams:

1. Silva, Moontasri, Perry, Smith, PVZ, Wineland (Sherdog MMA)
2.
3. Silva, Moontasri, Perry, Smith, PVZ, Wineland ($27)
4.
5. Barberena, Silva, Moontasri, Perry, PVZ, Wineland ($5 single entry)
6.
7. Silva, Gall, Miller, Moontasri, Perry, PVZ ($3 3-max)
8. Covington, Silva, Gall, Holtzman, Miller, PVZ ($3 3-max)
9. Aliev, Covington, Faber, Holtzman, Serrano, PVZ ($3 3-max)
10.
11. Silva, Moontasri, Perry, Smith, PVZ, Wineland ($3 satellite)
12.
13. Silva, Holtzman, Moontasri, Perry, PVZ, Wineland ($1 single entry)
14.
15. Covington, Craig, Faber, Gall, Miller, Waterson ($.25)
16. Aldana, Covington, Silva, Perry, Pickett, PVZ ($.25)
17.
18. Covington, Silva, Gall, Perry, Pickett, Wineland ($.25 satellite)


I reserved all of these teams 3-4 days ago, but didn't have time to edit them till now. Since this event starts 3 hours earlier than usual, I kinda felt rushed in picking my teams, so I just hope for the best tonight.

Sultan Aliev with the boring win as expected.

Aliev with prolly the most boring, gayest win of 16.

Not sure how Velicvik gets taken down by Aliev in 3 rounds and was able to negate Graves wrestling so well.

Sad.

Hopefully Sandoval does well, I accidentally consolidated on all my draftkings entries into like 1 of 8 lineups, so it's now 1 lineup entered into like 14 tournaments.

Questionable stoppage. Mitzugaki's chin is beyond done (which was def a question mark coming into the fight) because he was outstriking Eddie pretty decisively and then ate a decent shot and was flopping all over the place like a fish.

Nice to see Eddie get a W but meh, he's not very good anymore.

Nice finish by Wineland, even though Mizugaki's chin is gone.

lol so entertaining

Great performance by Leslie Smith.

She'll never fight for the title, but she is a bad-ass nonetheless.

Leslie Smith just downright better than I thought she was I guess. O_O

On December 17 2016 22:35 soberstone wrote: Leslie Smith just downright better than I thought she was I guess. O_O

Aldana is just flawed.

She always leaves herself open for strikes, and is okay with trading. That's a bad recipe when facing an opponent who is a high volume striker, has a good chin, good cardio, and is the hometown fighter. Moreover, Aldana was making her UFC debut.

I'm glad I faded Irene on DK.

Nice war between Holtzman and Emmett.

Split-decision for either guy, imo. I favor Holtzman, but Emmett is the hometown guy.

That was a close fight, I scored it 29-28 Emmett even though I had Holtzman decision prop, they got it right.

If I had bet Emmett (which would have been awful given the odds) they would have scored it the opposite way.

Moontasri should wreck Morono from what I've seen but who knows.

Who knows: LMAO nevermind, Moontasri has awesome cardio

FUCK YOU Moontasri...

I can't believe his cardio is still bad. I didn't expect him to gas out after R1, which was a pure kicking round where neither guy was in trouble, and they didn't clinch.

Covington decision = $ in the bank.

His striking is coming along nicely - he has legit championship cardio, wrestling, and athleticism, it will just come down to how good his striking can get and how good is chin is (since we have no clue)

On December 17 2016 23:40 PuertoRican wrote: FUCK YOU Moontasri... I can't believe his cardio is still bad. I didn't expect him to gas out after R1, which was a pure kicking round where neither guy was in trouble, and they didn't clinch.

Yah it's pathetic. He should be cut.

Welp, I faded Colby Covington in my 3 main teams on DraftKings cuz I thought there was a chance he might not perform as well as he did, but I was dead wrong.

Colby earned 50+ points from TDs alone...

Silva fighting like a complete idiot.

Clinching up with a terrible striker, who is one of the strongest, biggest, best grapplers at LHW (despite it being his debut, if you watched tape it was all clear).

Brazilian fighters, for being the ones who made this sport what it is today, are just the dumbest.

Thank god I hedged with the under and Craig by submission.

is there a working stream

damn Perry was shut down vs those body kicks.. another bad bet ....

I don't know why I didnt bet Jouban, when I always give the edge to longer guys in a striking match... sigh

On December 18 2016 01:13 Zadan wrote: is there a working stream

go to fixalen.tv just have adblockers and shit for your browser

On December 18 2016 01:42 jvilla777 wrote: damn Perry was shut down vs those body kicks.. another bad bet .... I don't know why I didnt bet Jouban, when I always give the edge to longer guys in a striking match... sigh

I never guessed Jouban would fight like that.

My night officially turned into a loss with Perry being able to adjust to someone who won't engage him in a battle.

On December 18 2016 01:46 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On December 18 2016 01:42 jvilla777 wrote: damn Perry was shut down vs those body kicks.. another bad bet .... I don't know why I didnt bet Jouban, when I always give the edge to longer guys in a striking match... sigh I never guessed Jouban would fight like that. My night officially turned into a loss with Perry being able to adjust to someone who won't engage him in a battle.

That blows.

I expected him to fight pretty similar to the way he did - smart, just don't get into a complete firefight with Perry and pick him apart, seems standard enough.

Faber decision cashes some decent lil parlays for me. Terrible start, doing well now, looking at a decent night, not great but being +$ when you are so down pretty big after 6 fights.

On December 18 2016 01:42 jvilla777 wrote: Show nested quote + On December 18 2016 01:13 Zadan wrote: is there a working stream go to fixalen.tv just have adblockers and shit for your browser

Thanks man

Bam, Oh Mickey your so fine, your so fine you blow my mind, hey Mickey.

Sage actually did improve on the ground but is still pretty terrible obviously, he was comfortable enough to get up and talk some shit after the first ground war.... but.... he's still too green. Gall's striking is not good though, def also very green. Got lucky and clipped Sage - who's chin is garbage.

Neither guy is very good. Gall's ceiling is higher - calling out Dan Hardy? I think Hardy roll's him up.

Thank God, Gall won.. should bring me back just below break even

My pick is Paige VanZant via TKO in Round 4.

Welcome to the paige and sage show...

Well, PVZ lost, but at least the fight ended fast.

We have 1 week off before UFC 207 on December 30, which is a Friday.

Anyway, time to lay down and watch a movie.

PVZ movement and leg shuffle is retarded who does she think she is, Muhammed Ali?

Fuck Waterson, was killing the game, decided to jump on PVZ even more cuz I was doing well tonight and the odds got better. Blew the winnings. Stupid degen.

Oh well, later guys

wow even for a free card im not watching this lol