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UFC on FOX 22: VanZant vs. Waterson

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PuertoRican   United States. Dec 11 2016 20:55. Posts 10576

Date: Saturday, December 17th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 21:30 LP.net / 12:30pm PST / 3:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 23:00 LP.net / 2pm PST / 5pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 2:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/





Main Card (FOX)

Paige VanZant (7-2) vs. Michelle Waterson (13-4) (Women's Strawweight)
Sage Northcutt (8-1) vs. Mickey Gall (3-0) (Welterweight)
Urijah Faber (33-10) vs. Brad Pickett (25-12) (Bantamweight)
Alan Jouban (14-4) vs. Mike Perry (9-0) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Luis Henrique da Silva (12-0) vs. Paul Craig (8-0) (Light Heavyweight)
Cole Miller (21-10) vs. Mizuto Hirota (17-7-2) (Featherweight)
Bryan Barberena (12-3) vs. Colby Covington (10-1) (Welterweight)
James Moontasri (9-4) vs. Alex Morono (12-3) (Welterweight)
Josh Emmett (10-0) vs. Scott Holtzman (9-1) (Lightweight)
Leslie Smith (8-7-1) vs. Irene Aldana (7-2) (Women's Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Eddie Wineland (22-11-1) vs. Takeya Mizugaki (21-10-2) (Bantamweight)
Hector Sandoval (12-3) vs. Fredy Serrano (3-1) (Flyweight)
Bojan Velickovic (14-3-1) vs. Sultan Aliev (13-2) (Welterweight)

Other

- The event features the final fight of both Urijah Faber and Brad Pickett before they head into retirement.

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Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 12/12/2016 00:34

PuertoRican   United States. Dec 11 2016 20:58. Posts 10576

First impression of the match-ups:

• PVZ > Waterson
• Gall > Northcutt
• Faber > Pickett
• Perry > Jouban
• Silva > Craig
• Hirota > Miller
• Covington > Barberena
• Moontasri > Morono
• Emmett > Holtzman
• Aldana > Smith
• Wineland > Mizugaki
• Sandoval > Serrano
• Velickovic > Aliev

Rekrul is a newb 

soberstone   United States. Dec 12 2016 20:19. Posts 2641

Decent little card here. Some fun matchups.

PVZ > Waterson* -Changed mind, PVZ too big, strong, and athletic should be able to bully the Karate Hottie.
Gall > Northcutt - Fun fun
Faber > Pickett - Not a terrible matchup for Pickett though, his wrestling has consistently been good
Perry vs Jouban - Pickem - Just can't go against that chin. Jouban is a better fighter though and I think he wins if he fights smart and mixes in some grappling early.
Silva vs Craig - Dunno
Hirota > Miller
Covington > Barberena
Moontasri vs Morono - Dunno
Emmett vs Holtzman - Dunno yet - I'm thinking the odds look too wide
Aldana > Smith
Wineland vs Mizugaki - Pickem
Sandoval > Serrano
Velikovic > Aliev

 Last edit: 13/12/2016 07:19

PuertoRican   United States. Dec 13 2016 00:34. Posts 10576





Watch from 43:45 to 46:17 of the video.

Full interview is between 40:25 to 1:02:30 of the video.

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 13/12/2016 22:19

Minsk   Belarus. Dec 13 2016 05:06. Posts 1493

You guys really think Gall can/will take Northcutt?

A coward dies a thousand deaths. A soldier dies but once. 

soberstone   United States. Dec 13 2016 07:18. Posts 2641

After re-watching Waterson vs Magana I'm on PVZ. I thought too highly of Waterson, she's slick sith subs and flexible, but she's just gonna be too small and not athletic enough to deal with PVZ's size, strength, and cardio/output.

PVZ via decision or late stoppage.


soberstone   United States. Dec 13 2016 07:21. Posts 2641


  On December 13 2016 04:06 Minsk wrote:
You guys really think Gall can/will take Northcutt?



Yes. Northcutt is greener despite records, and makes all kinda of mistakes that Gall should be able to turn those into a sub


iakim322   United States. Dec 14 2016 00:19. Posts 1227

Like PVZ a lot here. Never was high on Waterson. And as said, she's tiny. Maybe late stoppage from ground and pound from PVZ

Gall > Northcutt. Then CM Punk fights Nortcutt for another circus

Faber vs Pickett basically in 2017 is really uninteresting

Wanted to say Jouban > Perry but I could see the fight going kinda like Perry's last fight. Should be the best fight on the card


PuertoRican   United States. Dec 14 2016 01:22. Posts 10576


  On December 13 2016 23:19 iakim322 wrote:
Faber vs Pickett basically in 2017 is really uninteresting.


What about Faber vs. Pickett in 2016?

Still uninteresting?

Rekrul is a newb 

soberstone   United States. Dec 14 2016 01:47. Posts 2641

lol


Minsk   Belarus. Dec 14 2016 05:38. Posts 1493

How many bets is enough to be considered a relatively stable sample size in sportsbetting where STD.deviation is pretty reliable. Anyone know? Like 200k hands in poker.

A coward dies a thousand deaths. A soldier dies but once. 

soberstone   United States. Dec 14 2016 06:17. Posts 2641


  On December 14 2016 04:38 Minsk wrote:
How many bets is enough to be considered a relatively stable sample size in sportsbetting where STD.deviation is pretty reliable. Anyone know? Like 200k hands in poker.



Probably have a pretty decent idea after a couple hundred bets, if not less. Then again, I did really well over a 250 bet period and then lost a lot over the next like 30 or 40 bets, but as lot of that was degeneracy and sizing, which is a part of being a winner like everything else that I personally have a hard time with.

A bigtime Vegas bookie I was listening to said that for sure you should be able to hit lines at the right time and predict movement consistently on big fights before you can really consider yourself possibly sharp, that's the easiest way to tell if you have any edge yet at all but it still doesn't mean you are amazing or anything, especially if you are going to be betting undercard fights, etc.

Didn't you say MMA was too random to beat?


alejandicto   . Dec 14 2016 23:36. Posts 640

Maybe not a very relevant card but still a fun Main card.

I am pumped for the Perry vs Jouban fight as they have exciting styles










soberstone   United States. Dec 15 2016 04:22. Posts 2641

Hah, love it. #wolftickets

Definitely the people's main event.


Minsk   Belarus. Dec 15 2016 20:25. Posts 1493


  On December 14 2016 05:17 soberstone wrote:
Show nested quote +



Probably have a pretty decent idea after a couple hundred bets, if not less. Then again, I did really well over a 250 bet period and then lost a lot over the next like 30 or 40 bets, but as lot of that was degeneracy and sizing, which is a part of being a winner like everything else that I personally have a hard time with.

A bigtime Vegas bookie I was listening to said that for sure you should be able to hit lines at the right time and predict movement consistently on big fights before you can really consider yourself possibly sharp, that's the easiest way to tell if you have any edge yet at all but it still doesn't mean you are amazing or anything, especially if you are going to be betting undercard fights, etc.

Didn't you say MMA was too random to beat?




I mean, I started experimenting in other avenues of life, stopped betting real money after losing a lot, now I'm at a 33% ROI after tracking 106 bets without betting. I'm not sure, probably gonna drop it, but its a hard ROI to abandon. I also have too much going on in life, and betting takes a lot of time on research + watching.

What I said about too random, was more a frustration, and what I meant was that it was too hard for me, and took too much time. but after continuing tracking the bets, I ended up with 33% ROI after 106 bets, so I'm confused. I do feel like I'm making good choices, and when I started I just didn't know enough about the sport, but also feel it takes a lot of time, probably too much to make it worth it.

There's two types of betting, one is betting the lines and one is predicting the winner, you can be good at one but not the other. So what that bookie said doesn't make much sense.

A coward dies a thousand deaths. A soldier dies but once. 

traxamillion   United States. Dec 16 2016 01:15. Posts 10274

The bookie is citing 2 important factors/skills that are extremely relevant to having a positive winrate. Makes perfect sense to me.

Betting certainly isnt binary into betting winners and betting lines. Simply picking winners/losers doesnt really mean anything the price matters. Of course many who simply pick winners/losers with some success will be horrible at betting lines; the opposite would not be true.


soberstone   United States. Dec 16 2016 03:31. Posts 2641

I'm kind of split on Northcutt decision vs Gall submission but am fairly confident it should be 1 of these 2 outcomes a vast majority of the time, so I bet it that way.


alejandicto   . Dec 16 2016 17:37. Posts 640

Nice workout from the karate hottie

https://www.facebook.com/mmafighting/videos/10154908807764479/


alejandicto   . Dec 16 2016 19:05. Posts 640

My only bet here: Sage Northcutt 20 bucks to win 39


alejandicto   . Dec 17 2016 04:01. Posts 640


 
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