UFC 197: Jones vs. Saint Preux - Page 2

Osp would need like a 2 outer to beat jones,

I can also see barboza winning based on aggression having similar styles with pettis.

Just watched his fight again vs felder, that was fn sick

Yeah Barboza is live for sure he is very violent and can easily rock Pettis with a flurry but I dont see that many technical or strategical ways for him to win, Pettis is quicker and more precise, I think he should be able to throw kicks when he sees openings and to control the distance while creating set ups while Barboza can only try to time Pettis coming in with them or against a stationary Pettis which is rare unless he is gassing but Barboza isnt a cardio monster so that probably wont happen.

OSP is simply drawing dead unless Jones returns like shit which I dont think will happen since he is very young, OSP has decent power but Jones is so difficult to KO because its difficult to generate strong collilsions against him, he rarely trades, he is quick to pull out and has huge reach so most punches that land are almost over extensions on an already retreating Jones with his fingers gouging your eyes out, so many KO artist have failed to even hurt him and OSP doesnt have anything new to offer striking wise, and all of this is only relevant if Jones simply doesnt take him down quick and maul him from the top.

-Reach Numbers-

East 77" - Harris 77"
Lee 77" - Escudero 70"
Roberts 74" - Steele 74"
Vick 76" - Franca 77"
S. Pettis 69" - Kelades 68"
Fili 74" - Rodriguez 71"
De Lima 75" - Hester 77"
Esparza 63" - Lima 65 1/2"
Natal 76" - Whitaker 73 1/2"
A. Pettis 72 1/2" - Barboza 75"
Johnson 66" - Cejudo 64"
OSP 80" - Jones 84 1/2"

On April 19 2016 07:30 Baalim wrote: Yeah Barboza is live for sure he is very violent and can easily rock Pettis with a flurry but I dont see that many technical or strategical ways for him to win, Pettis is quicker and more precise, I think he should be able to throw kicks when he sees openings and to control the distance while creating set ups while Barboza can only try to time Pettis coming in with them or against a stationary Pettis which is rare unless he is gassing but Barboza isnt a cardio monster so that probably wont happen. OSP is simply drawing dead unless Jones returns like shit which I dont think will happen since he is very young, OSP has decent power but Jones is so difficult to KO because its difficult to generate strong collilsions against him, he rarely trades, he is quick to pull out and has huge reach so most punches that land are almost over extensions on an already retreating Jones with his fingers gouging your eyes out, so many KO artist have failed to even hurt him and OSP doesnt have anything new to offer striking wise, and all of this is only relevant if Jones simply doesnt take him down quick and maul him from the top.

+1 on all counts

I've changed my mind on OSP. Due to all the commentary, there was a muddieness in my mind as to what Jon Jones will return like, but really I doubt he will be much different than ever before after only 1 year off. His technique and mindset are too good to give OSP much of a chance. Jones > OSP.

I've also changed my mind on Pettis vs Barboza. I'm on the Pettis train. Barboza has a weaker chin, he might have more raw power, but Pettis knows how to deal with it. Barboza is also pretty dumb, like a horse. Pettis should be able to set him up off timing and read him a bit better. Pettis > Barboza

Pettis will prob win but I still like Barboza at +170 or better if it gets there. (Admittedly I already too small action at +150)

Barbosa got rocked with a hard shot from Felder and was fine. I don't think his chin is that bad. Just can't be that impressed with pettis after losing to Alvarez. That was garbage just showed no heart

My only bet: Jones+Demetrious+Pettis+Yair. 30 bucks to win 116

I made that same parlay as a hedge

On April 20 2016 14:55 traxamillion wrote: Barbosa got rocked with a hard shot from Felder and was fine. I don't think his chin is that bad. Just can't be that impressed with pettis after losing to Alvarez. That was garbage just showed no heart

Has to be a mistake comparing what Alvarez did compared to how barboza almost always fights to judge how Pettis will do here. Also, still generally sucking at defensive wrestling doesn't equate to no heart. Heart isn't something anyone would say is a strong point of Pettis but he definitely has at least some. If he didn't, he would've found a way to get out in the RDA fight instead of gettin the shit kicked out of him for the full 25 min.

No details or all too much confidence but I'm gonna be on Pettis. For a pretty small amount. Was also one of the ones who lost a chunk on him vs Eddie

On April 20 2016 18:14 alejandicto wrote: My only bet: Jones+Demetrious+Pettis+Yair. 30 bucks to win 116

I expect either Pettis or Yair to lose their fight, if not both. Considering the match-up for both, it's risky adding both guys to the same parlay.

Did you add all these guys in the same parlay cuz you're familiar with them, or because you think it's the most solid 4-team parlay on the card? IMO, there are "safer" fighters on this card to add to a 4-team parlay, not that I recommend a 4-team parlay.

On April 20 2016 21:11 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On April 20 2016 18:14 alejandicto wrote: My only bet: Jones+Demetrious+Pettis+Yair. 30 bucks to win 116 I expect either Pettis or Yair to lose their fight, if not both. Considering the match-up for both, it's risky adding both guys to the same parlay. Did you add all these guys in the same parlay cuz you're familiar with them, or because you think it's the most solid 4-team parlay on the card? IMO, there are "safer" fighters on this card to add to a 4-team parlay, not that I recommend a 4-team parlay.

I originally thought on a 3 man parlay Jones+Demetrious+Pettis (I think Pettis wins by KO or submission, he is still the best or maybe the second best striker in the division IMO, Barboza will give him the space he needs and he has not a good chin)

I add Yair to my parlay later, I wasnt sure about this at the beginning but I really see him as a future contender and I think he beats fili by decision here.

Nah def not sayijng Barboza has a terrible chin, he took hard shots vs Michael Johnson and a couple vs Felder but it's not fantastic. The Cerrone and Varner finishes showed that it's not iron. Pettis is just much better at not getting hit clean and even when he has he seems pretty immune to getting wobbled. RDA broke his face and couldn't actually come close to KOing him, he's just very careful about not colliding with punches.

As McGregor famously put it, power vs precision matchup. Pettis being much more precise and better with space and range, Barboza probably kicks harder (neither hit all that hard) but winds up his kicks and labors his punches.

Oh yea I have Whittaker not yair in my parlay. Oops

OSP is doomed here. Gimmick fight for Bones. He is going to smash him and look spectacular doing so. I am considering JJ R1/R2.

Have a big bet for Mighty Mouse at -220, but thinking about hedging that a little. I think Cejudo wrestling is so good he can neutralize some of MM best weapons and make it somehow closer fight.

Also I am fairly big on Anthony Pettis. I was betting against him on all of his last 3 fights, but here I think Barboza is perfect match up for him to shine.

OSP s possibly the weakest opponent he will face in a title defense match

On April 22 2016 09:46 northsails wrote: Have a big bet for Mighty Mouse at -220, but thinking about hedging that a little. I think Cejudo wrestling is so good he can neutralize some of MM best weapons and make it somehow closer fight.

Did you see Henry Cejudo vs. Chico Camus? Camus stuffed all of Cejudo's take down attempts except for 1 in Round 3, iirc. Camus isn't a wrestler.

Cejudo's wrestling hasn't translated to MMA that great, especially in the UFC. He's facing guys who are small and fast, so it's hard for him to do his thing. Now, Cejudo is finally facing a top flyweight, and it happens to be the best flyweight in the world who is faster, has better BJJ, better striking, better MMA wrestling, he doesn't have to cut much weight (10 pounds), and he can fight at 100% for 25 minutes in a row.

I don't think Cejudo will get finished, but I don't see him winning, either. At best, Cejudo's movement, striking, and wrestling will be able to slow down the action (which is good when facing Mighty Mouse), but he has no offensive tools to hurt Mighty Mouse (unless he recently changed/upgraded his style).

On April 22 2016 09:46 northsails wrote: OSP is doomed here. Gimmick fight for Bones. He is going to smash him and look spectacular doing so. I am considering JJ R1/R2. Have a big bet for Mighty Mouse at -220, but thinking about hedging that a little. I think Cejudo wrestling is so good he can neutralize some of MM best weapons and make it somehow closer fight. Also I am fairly big on Anthony Pettis. I was betting against him on all of his last 3 fights, but here I think Barboza is perfect match up for him to shine.

Show me where I can get MM at -220 and I'll bet the house. I'm assuming typo though

The line opened like this at betsafe/betsson. I posted it here btw, I am pretty sure.

They opened a lot of crazy lines, also. Tumenov/ Nelson was pickem, Corey Anderson was like -115 vs Shogun. Struve was a + 175 dog vs Bigfoot. Urijah Hall at +250 vs Silva and many more.

My point is it is a gold mine there, when they open the lines before 5dimes. If you can use this option definitely load some cash there. A lot of free money.

@PuertoRican I agree with you, but my reasoning for hedging a little is because now the price is pretty cool and I have a lot of money on Mighty Mouse. If Cejudo somehow pulls it off, I'll take a pretty big hit.