UFC FN 74: Holloway vs. Oliveira - Page 2

ya but +2525 odds in baseball don't exist either

On August 20 2015 21:37 CamilaPunt wrote: ya but +2525 odds in baseball don't exist either

And you can find large odds like that several times a week on the same UFC card.

There's no point in arguing over over whether or not there's value in a split-decision line. Casual bettors will always drop money on longshot props with absurd lines, while longtime bettors know to stay away from them for the most part.

I've made several bets on such props early on in sports betting, so I speak from experience when I say it's not worth betting this particular fight to end with Oliveira by split-decision. "Fight ends via split-decision" would be a safer bet, but even then, it's not a bet I woule make or ever recommend in this fight, even at +2200.

Whatever you got me heated because all you seem to like to do is not post your bets, shit on mine consistently, and then then you also happen to be wrong for the most-part. Maybe it's variance, I have no clue, and I don't really care when it comes to why I wrote what I wrote. I don't care if you are a long time bettor and I'm a fish.

You have no respect and act like you are some kind of authority on this shit.

This is a forum. We should all be trying to crush lines together or root for one another.

Who cares, terrible bet, just don't see why you'd point it out with no actual rationale besides "these props are for fish, i know from experience". Cool story. How about explaining why the theory I laid out isn't valid. Maybe it's not. I don't know. I'm a fish.

On August 20 2015 21:37 CamilaPunt wrote: ya but +2525 odds in baseball don't exist either

Sure they do on some random prop like the prop stone is betting here.

And that doesn't even matter i'm just talking relative movement. You will rarely get any baseball bet for half the price it opens.

Again that further reinforces my point about line movement and profitability; MMA is a much more beatable sport vs ur average book than baseball. Books are obviously far less sharp on fighting and just try to get equal amounts on both side of a fight for the most part. Books take on more variance with less vig in baseball because their 'skill edge' (access to data basically) is larger there

On August 21 2015 03:17 soberstone wrote: Whatever you got me heated because all you seem to like to do is not post your bets, shit on mine consistently, and then then you also happen to be wrong for the most-part. Maybe it's variance, I have no clue, and I don't really care when it comes to why I wrote what I wrote. I don't care if you are a long time bettor and I'm a fish. You have no respect and act like you are some kind of authority on this shit. This is a forum. We should all be trying to crush lines together or root for one another. Who cares, terrible bet, just don't see why you'd point it out with no actual rationale besides "these props are for fish, i know from experience". Cool story. How about explaining why the theory I laid out isn't valid. Maybe it's not. I don't know. I'm a fish.

1. I don't like to post my bets? You've never seen me post my bets, right? Right???... This first line sounds like you're butt-hurt and are just typing nonsense, as you know damn well I post my bets. You can go back and see 50+ MMA threads where I post my bets. I haven't bet the last 2 UFC cards, which is why I haven't posted my bets. School just started today, so I'm on my break from researching any fights, and thus on a break from betting till December, which I think is when the Aldo/McGregor card is.

2. Regarding your bets, I offer my feedback, whether your picks are good or bad. I don't sugarcoat anything, so if you made a bad bet, I will flat-out tell you it's a shitty bet. I have given you praise on bets I liked of yours, so that can't be disputed. If you want constructive criticism on a bet, post here and ask us (the entire thread) what we think about a bet before you actually put money down on it.

3. I do have a lot of wrong bets, but I also have a lot of right bets, especially via live-betting, so what does that matter? Again, this is you being butt-hurt.

4. You're right, this is a forum, and we should be trying to crush lines together. This back-and-forth came about when I said I didn't like your prop bet, and that it's a bad bet, which I still stand by. I gave my criticism on the bet, which is me trying to work with you from wasting money on props. It may be a small bet, but if you make a bunch of small bets on long-shot props that don't hit, then there's a problem, and losing money is what I'm trying to stop you from doing.

5. For why your prop bet of "Oliveira wins by 5 round split/maj dec +2525" is bad, you can start by asking yourself how you think this fight will go. 1) Do you really think this fight will go 5-rounds? 2) Do you see the holes in both fighters' games, which can be exploited by the other fighter if both aren't at their very best? 3) Do you know how rare it is for a split-decision to happen in a 5-round fight? There's other factors, but these are just the three that popped into my head first.

All of this could've probably been avoided if I didn't use the word "fish" in my original statement, but like I previously stated, I don't sugarcoat anything, and I stand by my original statement. Also, I feel like I'm seeing the true version of you, it's kinda funny in a way. You think I'm hating on you so much, so you let loose your real true feelings.

Anyway, to be clear, I actually want your prop bets and all of your other bets to cash. I started these threads to get people interested in the sport, and I post my bets for people to see what I'm doing right or wrong so they can follow or do the opposite. I also constantly post updates in the weekly UFC threads of stuff I find useful for betting (there's actually a lot more stuff out there that's useful, I just don't have the time to collect it all, which is why it would be nice if you guys posted stuff too). The goal here is to enjoy MMA and hopefully win money (if you're into betting), so as long as you know I feel that way, you shouldn't feel the need to question me again in the future, cuz I have no reason to hate on anyone here and wish them any ill will.

On August 21 2015 03:17 soberstone wrote: Whatever you got me heated because all you seem to like to do is not post your bets, shit on mine consistently, and then then you also happen to be wrong for the most-part. Maybe it's variance, I have no clue, and I don't really care when it comes to why I wrote what I wrote. I don't care if you are a long time bettor and I'm a fish. You have no respect and act like you are some kind of authority on this shit. This is a forum. We should all be trying to crush lines together or root for one another. Who cares, terrible bet, just don't see why you'd point it out with no actual rationale besides "these props are for fish, i know from experience". Cool story. How about explaining why the theory I laid out isn't valid. Maybe it's not. I don't know. I'm a fish.

You have ridiculously thin skin.

On August 21 2015 16:06 iakim322 wrote: Show nested quote + On August 21 2015 03:17 soberstone wrote: Whatever you got me heated because all you seem to like to do is not post your bets, shit on mine consistently, and then then you also happen to be wrong for the most-part. Maybe it's variance, I have no clue, and I don't really care when it comes to why I wrote what I wrote. I don't care if you are a long time bettor and I'm a fish. You have no respect and act like you are some kind of authority on this shit. This is a forum. We should all be trying to crush lines together or root for one another. Who cares, terrible bet, just don't see why you'd point it out with no actual rationale besides "these props are for fish, i know from experience". Cool story. How about explaining why the theory I laid out isn't valid. Maybe it's not. I don't know. I'm a fish. You have ridiculously thin skin.

Cool, got any thoughts on the card or any good plays in your mind?

Nope not really anything that hasn't been said. Only on Holloway. Agree that Silva/Magny is a weird fight where I wouldn't be confident either way. Chose Silva for my DK lineups though. Like Moroz and to a lesser degree, Sims...but won't be playing 'em. Anyone know anything about Daniel Jolly?

Holm opened @ +950 vs rousey @ -1450
anyone is surprised with the odds ?? I thought it would be much closer, like, even thought Holm didnt impress that much she seem to be perfectly in control of the distance and I think she might give Rousey problems for this, Rousey seem to be too hitable and wild in the striking

On August 21 2015 20:38 drone666 wrote: Holm opened @ +950 vs rousey @ -1450 anyone is surprised with the odds ?? I thought it would be much closer, like, even thought Holm didnt impress that much she seem to be perfectly in control of the distance and I think she might give Rousey problems for this, Rousey seem to be too hitable and wild in the striking

"Fight starts round 2" will be a good bet. Rousey won't be afraid of Holm's power, and Holm has good distance management. o1.5 rounds might be good too, depending on the odds.

Silva looking a little soft IMO compared to normal self. Thinking about hedging out.

On August 21 2015 22:54 soberstone wrote: Silva looking a little soft IMO compared to normal self. Thinking about hedging out.

He looked a little softer during his last weigh-in, and looks way softer in this pic. He might be off of the Brazilian tonic water.

probably trying to work better on his gas tank that was always an issue?
to me at least seems like muscular low BF% guys tend to gas quicker, not sure whats the relation

On August 22 2015 01:13 drone666 wrote: probably trying to work better on his gas tank that was always an issue? to me at least seems like muscular low BF% guys tend to gas quicker, not sure whats the relation

I don't remember every bit of the Silva vs. Koscheck fight, but what I remember is Silva being more patient than usual, which is a good thing.

Maybe his patience and less muscle mass is a sign of growth in him as a fighter, dunno.

When the fight was announced, I automatically leaned toward Magny, but since we had 2 weeks in-between UFC cards, it has given me more time to think about the fight, and I'm leaning more towards Silva now.

Wow.... that lingerie shit's nuts.... I can't believe John Morgan is doing color on that.

Is some of that shit a work? Like at 2:40 the bitch just goes down from a punch that couldn't have ko'd her. Was she just crying or what? So confused.

And what happened in the main event? That red-head was insanely hot.

Edit: OK upon re-watch its clearly all a work

On August 21 2015 23:56 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On August 21 2015 22:54 soberstone wrote: Silva looking a little soft IMO compared to normal self. Thinking about hedging out. He looked a little softer during his last weigh-in, and looks way softer in this pic. He might be off of the Brazilian tonic water.

Softness is pretty bad for his style too. Seems significant at least.

Max Holloway (145) vs. Charles Oliveira (145.5)
Neil Magny (170.5) vs. Erick Silva (171)
Josh Burkman (170) vs. Patrick Cote (170)
Chad Laprise (155.5) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (155.5)
Olivier Aubin-Mercier (155) vs. Tony Sims (155.5)
Valerie Letourneau (117)* vs. Maryna Moroz (115)
Frankie Perez (155.5) vs. Sam Stout (155)
Felipe Arantes (135.5) vs. Yves Jabouin (135.5)
Nikita Krylov (205.5) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (205)
Chris Beal (126) vs. Chris Kelades (125.5)
Shane Campbell (155) vs. Elias Silverio (154.5)
Misha Cirkunov (205) vs. Daniel Jolly (204)

* Letourneau has one hour to cut an additional pound to the 116 pound allowance

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- Valerie Letourneau made weight on her second attempt.

- This is Felipe Arantes' first drop to 135 pounds, and he looked great on the scale.

- Tony Sims is back at 155 pounds for this fight, which is his normal weight class. His UFC debut was on short notice at 170, which he won. He looked good on the scales today, but not "OMG amazing."

- You can tell Misha Cirkunov will be way bigger than Daniel Jolly tomorrow. Cirkunov weighed in at 205 vs. Jolly 204, and Cirkunov was taller and much more muscular/stronger looking. I doubt Jolly will put much weight on when he re-hydrates, while Cirkunov will look like Ryan Bader on fight-day.

- The UFC will be using the big cage tomorrow.

Arantes always intense, him and Thomas Almeida really embrace the brazilian spirit
really enjoy watch them fight

lol since stricter roid trt and iv use fighters will start getting KOed more

^ June 2012.



^ May 2014.



^ March 2015.



^ August 2015.