UFC FN 70: Machida vs Romero - Page 3

On June 25 2015 15:19 traxamillion wrote: I have a big bet on Romero. You seen the guys traps? Guy reminds me of blanca in street fighter 1. Seems bigger, faster, stronger than machida.

Definitely bigger/stronger and more explosive grappling. Definitely slower handspeed and footwork though.

Romero isn't technical with his striking, so he leaves a lot of openings, and Machida is a master of countering perfectly in devastating fashion and has great take down defense.

On paper, without the small cage and questions about Machida's durability at this point, the matchup does favor Machida.

However, the cage is small, Machida may very well be declining and is taking this fight weeks after being straight destroyed by Rockhold, so I think it's a dog or pass situation, I put a moderate bet on Romero but much more on the under 2.5.

Dope video

Added a bet to Romero +165 and another bet to Santos/Bosse u1.5 +120 cuz of the small cage.

On June 26 2015 01:21 PuertoRican wrote: Added a bet to Romero +165 and another bet to Santos/Bosse u1.5 +120 cuz of the small cage.

Smart man. I think the Bosse/Santos under is one of the better bets on the card.

Lines for 189 are out (5-Dimes Lines):


Featherweight José Aldo (c) (+115) vs. Conor McGregor (-135) over under 2.5 -120/-100
Welterweight Robbie Lawler (c) (+160) vs. Rory MacDonald (-185) over under 3.5 -170/+150
Featherweight Dennis Bermudez (-210) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+160) over under 2.5 -190/+150
Welterweight Gunnar Nelson (+125) vs. Brandon Thatch (-165) over under 1.5 -165/+125
Bantamweight Brad Pickett (+350) vs. Thomas Almeida (-530) over under 1.5 -165/+125
Welterweight Matt Brown (-180) vs. Tim Means (+150) over under 2.5 -125/-115
Welterweight Cathal Pendred (-150) vs. John Howard (+110) over under 2.5 -230/+170
Welterweight Mike Swick (+250) vs. Alex Garcia (-330) over under 1.5 -135/-105
Bantamweight Cody Garbrandt (-380) vs. Henry Briones (+260) over under 1.5 -165/+125
Flyweight Neil Seery (-105) vs. Louis Smolka (-135) over under 2.5 -230/+170
Lightweight Yosdenis Cedeno (-190) vs. Cody Pfister (+150) over under 2.5 -165/+125

Since it's such a massive card, I figure it's never too soon to get the dialogue going. I'm sure this will carry over to Rican's obligatory awesome thread.

Early Favorite Lines I Like:
Thomas Almeida (-530) - I think Picket is drawing dead to this killer.
Alex Garcia (-330) - Swick is completely washed up unless he convinces me otherwise and Garcia is a very good prospect who beat Neil Magny on 1 leg IMO.
Cody Garbrandt (-380) - Another high ceiling prospect vs a TUF Mexico guy? Rofl.
Connor McGregor (-135) - Pissed if the supposed injury sways the line a lot, I wanted to bet McGregor by KO pre-injury.

Early Dog Lines I Like:
John Howard (+110) - Pendred is terrible. We all know this. Howard is not great but should be way faster, has good wrestling, and should be able to just beat a low-risk boring beating on Pendred.
Jeremy Stevens (+160) - Lamas and Bermudez are both over-rated and Lamas beat Bermudez in the first round with a jab flash ko to a choke. Stephens hits way harder than Lamas, is a better striker than Bermudez, and should be able to stuff takedowns and/or get back up fairly easily.

Early Over's I Like:
Pendred v Howard o 2.5 (-230) - Like I said, low risk, boring picking apart of Pendred by the faster Howard.
Seery vs Smolka o 2.5 (-230) - Not dynamic finishing flyweights in a competitive fight? Easy money

Early Under's I Like:
Carbrandt/Briones u 1.5 (+125) - Briones gets smoked on the feet or subbed very quickly, completely outclassed
Means/Brown u 2.5 (-115) - This is tricky as both guys are good and durable but both are so offensive minded, aggressive, and have such good cardio that the chances of a finish don't decrease as the fight progresses at all unlike other fights
Almeida/Picket u 1.5 (+125) - Picket getting KO'd quickly
McGregor/Aldo u 2.5 (-100) - McGregor is going to set to attempt to set a very high pace early for multiple reasons.
A) he always does
B) he will be avoiding leg kicks through offensive pressure and getting inside Aldo's kicking range + Aldo throws kicks optimally at the end of combinations with his opponents retreating
C) test the 'injury',
D) potentially try and gas Aldo out
E) McGregor is obviously a supreme power puncher who thrives with his opponents back to the fence as he can then cut off angles with his kicking repitoure and fire inside punching combos comfortably with either hand from any angle
Aldo will do everything in his power to discourage McGregor from setting his pace early because if he doesn't he's screwed, which means not backing away from exchanges, which makes for fireworks and a high chance for a finish. Both of these gentlemen never lose rounds 1 or 2, and I doubt either will ease off the gas pedal.

On June 26 2015 02:12 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On June 26 2015 01:21 PuertoRican wrote: Added a bet to Romero +165 and another bet to Santos/Bosse u1.5 +120 cuz of the small cage. Lines for 189 are out (5-Dimes Lines): Featherweight José Aldo (c) (+115) vs. Conor McGregor (-135) over under 2.5 -120/-100 Welterweight Robbie Lawler (c) (+160) vs. Rory MacDonald (-185) over under 3.5 -170/+150 Featherweight Dennis Bermudez (-210) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+160) over under 2.5 -190/+150 Welterweight Gunnar Nelson (+125) vs. Brandon Thatch (-165) over under 1.5 -165/+125 Bantamweight Brad Pickett (+350) vs. Thomas Almeida (-530) over under 1.5 -165/+125 Welterweight Matt Brown (-180) vs. Tim Means (+150) over under 2.5 -125/-115 Welterweight Cathal Pendred (-150) vs. John Howard (+110) over under 2.5 -230/+170 Welterweight Mike Swick (+250) vs. Alex Garcia (-330) over under 1.5 -135/-105 Bantamweight Cody Garbrandt (-380) vs. Henry Briones (+260) over under 1.5 -165/+125 Flyweight Neil Seery (-105) vs. Louis Smolka (-135) over under 2.5 -230/+170 Lightweight Yosdenis Cedeno (-190) vs. Cody Pfister (+150) over under 2.5 -165/+125

^ Opening lines.



^ Current lines.

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On June 26 2015 02:12 soberstone wrote: [QUOTE]On June 26 2015 01:21 PuertoRican wrote: Early Favorite Lines I Like: Thomas Almeida (-530) - I think Picket is drawing dead to this killer. Alex Garcia (-330) - Swick is completely washed up unless he convinces me otherwise and Garcia is a very good prospect who beat Neil Magny on 1 leg IMO. Cody Garbrandt (-380) - Another high ceiling prospect vs a TUF Mexico guy? Rofl. Connor McGregor (-135) - Pissed if the supposed injury sways the line a lot, I wanted to bet McGregor by KO pre-injury. Early Dog Lines I Like: John Howard (+110) - Pendred is terrible. We all know this. Howard is not great but should be way faster, has good wrestling, and should be able to just beat a low-risk boring beating on Pendred. Jeremy Stevens (+160) - Lamas and Bermudez are both over-rated and Lamas beat Bermudez in the first round with a jab flash ko to a choke. Stephens hits way harder than Lamas, is a better striker than Bermudez, and should be able to stuff takedowns and/or get back up fairly easily. Early Over's I Like: Pendred v Howard o 2.5 (-230) - Like I said, low risk, boring picking apart of Pendred by the faster Howard. Seery vs Smolka o 2.5 (-230) - Not dynamic finishing flyweights in a competitive fight? Easy money Early Under's I Like: Carbrandt/Briones u 1.5 (+125) - Briones gets smoked on the feet or subbed very quickly, completely outclassed Means/Brown u 2.5 (-115) - This is tricky as both guys are good and durable but both are so offensive minded, aggressive, and have such good cardio that the chances of a finish don't decrease as the fight progresses at all unlike other fights Almeida/Picket u 1.5 (+125) - Picket getting KO'd quickly McGregor/Aldo u 2.5 (-100) - McGregor is going to set to attempt to set a very high pace early for multiple reasons. A) he always does B) he will be avoiding leg kicks through offensive pressure and getting inside Aldo's kicking range + Aldo throws kicks optimally at the end of combinations with his opponents retreating C) test the 'injury', D) potentially try and gas Aldo out E) McGregor is obviously a supreme power puncher who thrives with his opponents back to the fence as he can then cut off angles with his kicking repitoure and fire inside punching combos comfortably with either hand from any angle Aldo will do everything in his power to discourage McGregor from setting his pace early because if he doesn't he's screwed, which means not backing away from exchanges, which makes for fireworks and a high chance for a finish. Both of these gentlemen never lose rounds 1 or 2, and I doubt either will ease off the gas pedal.

Love the Jeremy Stevens bet and I also like Doomsday vs Pendred line.

Thomas Almeida is a beast and this feels like a showcase fight for him, but he is still untested and the line now is too wide apart for me to consider betting him.

Robbie Lawler was at like + 200 a few days ago. A lot of value here. While I agree Rory is the better fighter, Lawler is a bad match up for him. He is a southpaw and that makes one of the best tools that Macdonald has in his arsenal - the jab, not really effective. Since their last fight, which was a close one and could of gone either way, Robbie had 2 title fights and one more 5 rounder against Matt Brown so experience is on his side. I am not really sure that Rory will be able to keep him on the outside and if he can't Lawler will beat him up.

I am on the McGregor train ever since he dismantled Max Holloway. However I believe Aldo should be substantial favorite against him. Although Conor is bigger figher and a better striker, I believe Aldo is the better athlete and has more power and speed. Conor stance means trouble for Aldo leg kicks, as being a southpaw and a very skilled striker it is easy to check the right low kick with the knee and that is Aldo's best kick. Still he can use left low kick to exploit Conor's wide stance. And the biggest problem for McGregor for me will be handling the power and the speed in the exchanges. He is getting hit and I am not sure he will be able to eat Aldo's shots like he ate Poirier's . Grappling advantage is all Aldo. Will wait for the weign-ins for this one and see how Aldo looks and if the line spreads out some more, I might lay some more cash on him. I already have 2 bets on Aldo.

Bellator 139 prelims: http://www.bellator.com/articles/prelimstream


Main Card (Spike TV)

Cheick Kongo vs. Alexander Volkov
David Rickels vs. John Alessio
Joe Schilling vs. Hisaki Kato
Pat Curran vs. Emmanuel Sanchez

Preliminary Card (Spike.com)

Derek Bohi vs. Frederick Brown
Aaron Ely vs. Jeimeson Saudino
Iony Razafiarison vs. Bryanna Fissori
Alex Huddleston vs. Javy Ayala
Daniel Gallemore vs. Augusto Sakai
Bubba Jenkins vs. Joe Wilk
Bobby Cooper vs. Pablo Villaseca
Greg Scott vs. Gaston Reyno

Initial Bets:
Romero > Machida @ +165 - $40 to win $66
Romero/Machida U 2.5 rds @ -110 - $55 to win $50
Romero/Machida U 2.5 + Larkin Parlay @ +180 - $30 to win $53.91
Larkin + Carlos Jr Parlay @ +122 - $40 to win $49.45
Bosse/Santos U 1.5 rds @ +120 - $30 to win $36
Romera/Machida U 2.5 + Bosse/Santos U 1.5 + Larkin + Carlos Jr. Parlay @ +831 - $35 to win $293.73

Added Today:
Romero via KO @ +228 - $20 to win $45.80
Larkin v Ponz u 2.5 @ +115 - $30 to win $34.50
Bosse by ko/tko/dq @ @ +285 - $10 to win $28.50
Machida wins in Round 3 @ +900 - $35 to win $315.00
Machida wins in Round 4 @ +1400 - $20 to win $280.00
Machida wins in Round 5 @ +2002 - $10 to win $200.20

And 2 bets for tonite just to make it interesting...

Kongo at +130 - $10 to win $13
Kongo/Volkal O 1.5 rds + Rickels > Alessio @ +141 - $10 to win $14.09

Bellator main card: http://live.realstreamunited.com/static/freepopups/29973306597970.html

WOW. Schilling was more than a 5:1 favorite and just got absolutely TOASTED.

I had the u1.5 rounds... Glad Kato finished him.


Misaki Kato KO's Joe Schilling (1): https://vine.co/v/eJZujmAI1lx
Misaki Kato KO's Joe Schilling (2): https://vine.co/v/eJZzOVYUKIW
Misaki Kato KO's Joe Schilling (3): https://vine.co/v/eJZa6Xg3j7h

One of the top knockouts of the year by far.

They better rule this a no contest and not kill my parlay or that is the worst beat of all time.

Not only is Rickels in the process of finishing, but the ref should have stepped in when Alessio essentially gave up and dropped down.

Good N/C. Excellent reffing.

Alessio had nothing for Rickels, and Rickels blew it...

On June 27 2015 02:20 PuertoRican wrote: Alessio had nothing for Rickels, and Rickels blew it...

Absolutely. Unbelievably idiotic.

Round 1: Kongo (2 minutes and 26 seconds on top for Kongo, plus the 2 take downs he used to keep it on the mat.)

Round 2: Kongo (Over 4 minutes of top control + 1 take down for Kongo.)

Round 3: Kongo (Over 4 minutes of top control + 2 take downs for Kongo.)


3-0 for Kongo.

Easy money.

Rest of it played out as predicated.

Easy money - correct. Wish I'd bet more on this card.

Glad I stayed far away from the fishline on Schilling, rofl.

Just added a few bucks on Yoel Romero by submission +3108.

I don't expect it to hit, but the line is so attractive.