PuertoRican United States. Apr 22 2015 02:22. Posts 13044
Date: Saturday, April 25th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:30 LP.net / 3:30pm PST / 6:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 3:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)
- The event was expected to be headlined by a UFC Bantamweight Championship rematch between current champion T.J. Dillashaw and former champion Renan Barao. However on March 24, it was announced that Dillashaw had to pull out of the fight due to a broken rib and the fight was postponed. A UFC Flyweight Championship bout between current champion Demetrious Johnson and top contender Kyoji Horiguchi, originally scheduled for the co-main event, will now serve as the event's headliner.
- A welterweight bout between Rory MacDonald and Hector Lombard was expected to take place at the event. However, on February 10, the UFC announced the removal of both participants from the card and indicated that the pairing had been scrapped. It was later revealed that the fight was canceled due to Lombard's failed drug test from UFC 182. Subsequently, it was announced that MacDonald would receive a title shot against current champion Robbie Lawler at UFC 189.
- Claudio Silva was expected to face Nordine Taleb at the event. However, Silva pulled out of the bout for undisclosed reasons and was replaced by Chris Clements.
- Abel Trujillo was expected to face John Makdessi at the event. However on April 1, it was announced that Trujillo had pulled out of the fight due to a broken arm and was replaced by promotional newcomer Shane Campbell. The fight will be contested at a catchweight of 160 lbs.
- Former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Quinton Jackson was expected to make his return to the promotion against Fabio Maldonado at the co-main event. However on April 7, his most recent employer, Bellator MMA, was granted an injunction by a New Jersey Superior Court judge preventing him from competing for the UFC after it was alleged that he breached a deal signed in June 2013. On the same day, the UFC announced that "UFC 186 in Montreal, Canada will proceed as planned and UFC is currently evaluating its fight card options.” Three days later the UFC announced that Jackson would be replaced by former hockey player Steve Bosse. They also stated that "at the moment, Jackson and his representatives plan to appeal the court’s order, but with the event drawing nearer, the UFC has had to take action to ensure a suitable replacement was found to face Maldonado." On April 21, it was confirmed by the UFC that the court injunction blocking Jackson’s return was lifted, paving the way for his participation at the event. The bout is expected to maintain its original co-main event status and be contested at a catchweight of 215 lbs. Bosse will no longer compete at the event.
Rekrul is a newb
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PuertoRican United States. Apr 22 2015 02:27. Posts 13044
On April 22 2015 03:03 jvilla777 wrote:
Horiguchi's line is +6.50, this guy is taller and has a longer reach advantage compared to Johnson and usually goes for the KO. I like it.
I expect it to be possible to get him at +800 eventually with 5dimes reduced juice.
Also considering hes 4 years younger, i think its a good bet at +800
I'm also liking a bet on Campbell. This guy has been doing really well. Hes much taller with 6 inch range. And i expect this match to be standing. at +170 i like it.
james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;(
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soberstone United States. Apr 22 2015 05:53. Posts 2662
Super confident in Laprise. I think he's actually a solid well-rounded Canadian prospect and they are throwing him the bottom tier of the roster at home. Should be in the -400 or worse range, fantastic fight to bet at -295 on Bookmaker right now, already but a few bets down. Really like the favored Canadians (Laprise, Ovin-Mercier, Cote) and Markos.
DJ inside the distance +105 seems like a good bet to me.
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soberstone United States. Apr 22 2015 22:27. Posts 2662
Just put a bet on Maldanado at +230. I expect Jackson to win but not more than half the time considering he's gonna very likely be in horrible shape which plays nicely for the cardio king Maldanado.
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PuertoRican United States. Apr 22 2015 22:36. Posts 13044
On April 22 2015 21:27 soberstone wrote:
Just put a bet on Maldanado at +230. I expect Jackson to win but not more than half the time considering he's gonna very likely be in horrible shape which plays nicely for the cardio king Maldanado.
Maldonado's line will get better than +230.
Also, Jackson should win ITD. Maldonado isn't facing a scrub striker this time, and Rampage won't gas out like Maldonado's other opponents in the UFC. Maldonado's biggest issue is that he welcomes people to punch him in the face, and is more than willing to trade.
This is a classic example of feeding a lamb to the wolves. Unless Rampage mysteriously gasses in a 3-round fight (which is unlikely), Maldonado's slow footwork, lack of punching power, and willingness to eat head strikes will be enough to earn Rampage a UFC win and make the crowd go wild. Casual fans will then talk about how Rampage is back, but it will be a lie.
On April 22 2015 21:27 soberstone wrote:
Just put a bet on Maldanado at +230. I expect Jackson to win but not more than half the time considering he's gonna very likely be in horrible shape which plays nicely for the cardio king Maldanado.
You can already get him at +250
I wouldn't be surprised of +280 on 5dimes after weight ins if Quinton looks good.
james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;(
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soberstone United States. Apr 22 2015 23:21. Posts 2662
On April 22 2015 21:27 soberstone wrote:
Just put a bet on Maldanado at +230. I expect Jackson to win but not more than half the time considering he's gonna very likely be in horrible shape which plays nicely for the cardio king Maldanado.
You can already get him at +250
I wouldn't be surprised of +280 on 5dimes after weight ins if Quinton looks good.
Yah, and what if Quinton looks bad? Which he probably will. The guy won this absurd emergency injunction while he was probably drinking Mai Tai's and eating donuts thinking his fight was off and knows he probably won't be fighting after this for a year if he's lucky. Bellator still owns his rights after this fight. The UFC is probably indifferent about him winning and being a big draw, they just don't want him drawing for Bellator, which is the genius of this whole thing.
He's at +230 on my site - Bookmaker. He's +210 on some sites, +250 on others. If Maldanado goes to like +300, I'll throw a bunch more on it, it's a small bet as of now. Quinton is a 36 year old hack who is one of the best 20-30 MMA fighters of all time who hasn't loved the sport or trained seriously in probably 5 years and probably thinks hes just going to go in and KO Maldanado like it's nothing.
This is the guy who, in his prime, lost his belt to Forrest Griffin because he didn't have his shit together and couldn't check a leg kick. Pathetic. Dog or pass fight or your putting your money on a washed up headcase on 4 days notice.
Last edit: 22/04/2015 23:27
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PuertoRican United States. Apr 22 2015 23:33. Posts 13044
On April 22 2015 21:27 soberstone wrote:
Just put a bet on Maldanado at +230. I expect Jackson to win but not more than half the time considering he's gonna very likely be in horrible shape which plays nicely for the cardio king Maldanado.
You can already get him at +250
I wouldn't be surprised of +280 on 5dimes after weight ins if Quinton looks good.
Yah, and what if Quinton looks bad? Which he probably will. The guy won this absurd emergency injunction while he was probably drinking Mai Tai's and eating donuts thinking his fight was off and knows he probably won't be fighting after this for a year if he's lucky. Bellator still owns his rights after this fight.
He's at +230 on my site - Bookmaker. He's +210 on some sites, +250 on others. If Maldanado goes to like +300, I'll throw a bunch more on it, it's a small bet as of now. Quinton is a 36 year old hack who is one of the best 20-30 MMA fighters of all time who hasn't loved the sport or trained seriously in probably 5 years and probably thinks hes just going to go in and KO Maldanado like it's nothing.
This is the guy who, in his prime, lost his belt to Forrest Griffin because he didn't have his shit together and couldn't check a leg kick. Pathetic. Dog or pass fight or your putting your money on a washed up headcase on 4 days notice.
You're deluding yourself. It seems that you think you have some idea of what Rampage has been up to, but it's clearly not the case. All I see is a few assumptions on what he probably has been doing, not what he actually has been doing.
If you see value in Maldonado, go for it, just don't make up random stuff to back up why you're betting on the underdog.
On April 22 2015 21:27 soberstone wrote:
Just put a bet on Maldanado at +230. I expect Jackson to win but not more than half the time considering he's gonna very likely be in horrible shape which plays nicely for the cardio king Maldanado.
You can already get him at +250
I wouldn't be surprised of +280 on 5dimes after weight ins if Quinton looks good.
Yah, and what if Quinton looks bad? .
THen you immediatly bet maldanado as soon as the weight in happens. THe line won't drop massively in seconds.
james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;(
Last edit: 22/04/2015 23:50
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soberstone United States. Apr 23 2015 00:36. Posts 2662
On April 22 2015 21:27 soberstone wrote:
Just put a bet on Maldanado at +230. I expect Jackson to win but not more than half the time considering he's gonna very likely be in horrible shape which plays nicely for the cardio king Maldanado.
You can already get him at +250
I wouldn't be surprised of +280 on 5dimes after weight ins if Quinton looks good.
Yah, and what if Quinton looks bad? Which he probably will. The guy won this absurd emergency injunction while he was probably drinking Mai Tai's and eating donuts thinking his fight was off and knows he probably won't be fighting after this for a year if he's lucky. Bellator still owns his rights after this fight.
He's at +230 on my site - Bookmaker. He's +210 on some sites, +250 on others. If Maldanado goes to like +300, I'll throw a bunch more on it, it's a small bet as of now. Quinton is a 36 year old hack who is one of the best 20-30 MMA fighters of all time who hasn't loved the sport or trained seriously in probably 5 years and probably thinks hes just going to go in and KO Maldanado like it's nothing.
This is the guy who, in his prime, lost his belt to Forrest Griffin because he didn't have his shit together and couldn't check a leg kick. Pathetic. Dog or pass fight or your putting your money on a washed up headcase on 4 days notice.
You're deluding yourself. It seems that you think you have some idea of what Rampage has been up to, but it's clearly not the case. All I see is a few assumptions on what he probably has been doing, not what he actually has been doing.
If you see value in Maldonado, go for it, just don't make up random stuff to back up why you're betting on the underdog.
Don't think I'm deluding myself, I'm literally betting the fight the way I am because of the reasons that you emboldened. So if these are simply things I am making up to justify an underdog bet, than it's a terrible bet. I'm not betting this way because I think that all other things being equal Maldanado can beat Page anywhere near 1 out of 3 times.
I find it funny that you seem to think you know the logic I am employing on my bet better than I do. People make incorrect assumptions all the time and I'm no different, but when other people post things that I disagree with, I just disagree with them, I don't tell them they are deluding themselves into rationalizing a bet. That's a ridiculous assumption on your end.
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soberstone United States. Apr 23 2015 00:43. Posts 2662
On April 22 2015 21:27 soberstone wrote:
Just put a bet on Maldanado at +230. I expect Jackson to win but not more than half the time considering he's gonna very likely be in horrible shape which plays nicely for the cardio king Maldanado.
You can already get him at +250
I wouldn't be surprised of +280 on 5dimes after weight ins if Quinton looks good.
Yah, and what if Quinton looks bad? .
THen you immediatly bet maldanado as soon as the weight in happens. THe line won't drop massively in seconds.
My point is, I think there is value on Maldanado right now, so I'm betting him. It's not a large bet. If the line moves my way, I'll bet more, if not, atleast I laid a bet. I don't predict that come weigh-ins, the line is going to move massively in my favor, but if it does, I'll either have changed my mind by that time, or be happy to lay some more juice on good old Maldy. Really simple stuff here. I'm just not quite as confident as you in the line movement, but if it does move that way, hats off to you for predicting it and I'll likely be happy to put some more money on Fabio.
It'll be funny to flame me if Page just knocks him out in the 1st round - which I may also prop as a hedge anyway - but it'll be even funnier if Rampage looks like shit on his stool after round 1 and my tin foil antennas picked up some good intel.
On April 22 2015 21:27 soberstone wrote:
Just put a bet on Maldanado at +230. I expect Jackson to win but not more than half the time considering he's gonna very likely be in horrible shape which plays nicely for the cardio king Maldanado.
You can already get him at +250
I wouldn't be surprised of +280 on 5dimes after weight ins if Quinton looks good.
Yah, and what if Quinton looks bad? .
THen you immediatly bet maldanado as soon as the weight in happens. THe line won't drop massively in seconds.
My point is, I think there is value on Maldanado right now, so I'm betting him. It's not a large bet. If the line moves my way, I'll bet more, if not, atleast I laid a bet. I don't predict that come weigh-ins, the line is going to move massively in my favor, but if it does, I'll either have changed my mind by that time, or be happy to lay some more juice on good old Maldy. Really simple stuff here. I'm just not quite as confident as you in the line movement, but if it does move that way, hats off to you for predicting it and I'll likely be happy to put some more money on Fabio.
It'll be funny to flame me if Page just knocks him out in the 1st round - which I may also prop as a hedge anyway - but it'll be even funnier if Rampage looks like shit on his stool after round 1 and my tin foil antennas picked up some good intel.
If you think there's a good chance maldonaldo's line will get worse over time, then sure go ahead and bet him. But i personally think its much more likely people will bet on Rampage, thefore its more +EV to wait, thats all. I could be wrong tho, i'm not always right when trying to predict line movements.
Nordine Taleb (10-2) vs. Chris Clements (12-5) (Welterweight)
This fight confuse me.
On paper, Taleb has everything going for him:
Hes fightning in his home town, which is huge. Canada fighters fightning in their home town wins a lot more.
Hes 2 inch taller with 4 inch advantage
Hes 6 years younger, which is especially meaningfull with guys in their 30s.
He just went down from middleweight and is pretty huge for the weight class
BUT
After watching both fighters's recent fight, i can't help but think clements is the better fighter, and hes currently +220
Also, Clements's record is more impressive imo
james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;(
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PuertoRican United States. Apr 23 2015 08:01. Posts 13044
