gryzzlybearr Bulgaria. Feb 27 2015 08:00. Posts 129
I decided to take a shot at this card.
Parlay of four- Rousey-Cat under1.5 ,Kos-Jake over 1.5 ,Tony Ferguson to win and Lewis to win.
And also i have a single bet on Ronda-Cat under 1,5 rounds.I think it is the best bet for the whole card.Odds- 1,61
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 27 2015 09:18. Posts 13050
After I thought about it for a bit, and after doing some research to go with my feeling, I currently have Tibau +185 $15 for $27.75, and Tibau +205 $30 for $61.50, which totals Tibau $45 for $89.25.
I'm going to treat this fight like I did with RDA vs. Henderson, and Reneau vs. Andrade, which means I'm going big on the underdog whom I think has ways to win, and then live betting after/during round 1.
Explanation: I think this fight will be close in round 1, probably Tibau even winning round 1 do to him usually getting a take down within the first 5 minutes. After round 1, the odds will be near even, and I can hedge my bet or just go with my gut feeling from there. Also, Tibau has never been finished in the first round in his 43-fight career.
Ferguson lost the first round in his last two fights, which were both a step up in competition when compared to the people he was fighting before that. He got dropped versus Abel Trujillo and then subbed Trujillo in round 2 after Trujillo gassed. He spent 8+ minutes on the ground after Castillo took him down, but Castillo lost a split-decision because he only tried to wrestle-fuck Ferguson for the win (both had the same number of significant strikes at the end of the fight, and Castillo's 8+ minutes of top control didn't matter)
Rekrul is a newb
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 27 2015 09:21. Posts 13050
gryzzlybearr Bulgaria. Feb 27 2015 15:47. Posts 129
I just watched embedded 4 i think and saw Holy Holm has very muscular hands.Maybe the biggest in the women's division.
I have not seen her fight but she looks strong.
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 27 2015 17:06. Posts 13050
Walsh posted this in the betting thread at Sherdog:
"For this camp, I trained around 2 weeks at Team Alpha Male as well as spent time at Dominance MMA where I trained with Jake Matthews and Dan Kelly.
In terms of BJJ, I worked extensively with my head coach on countering the rubber guard and with some of Australia's best talent with mostly black/brown belts as my training partners. I know wrestling isn't Australia's strong point but I also worked on that with Gary Jones who once wrestled with Edgar as well as of course the crew at Team Alpha Male.
For me, personally, I like to think of my strong points and what I'm going to do rather than my opponent's strengths and his gameplay. When you start to overthink about your opponent, you fall into playing his game."
Rekrul is a newb
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flounder44 United States. Feb 27 2015 18:05. Posts 916
Joke card except for main. I dont see Cat surviving 2 rounds, Honda is just a diff type of cat she never seen. But if it goes to 5 rounds anything goes with cat.
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 27 2015 20:20. Posts 13050
Ronda Rousey (135) vs. Cat Zingano (134.5) – for women’s bantamweight title
Holly Holm (135.5) vs. Raquel Pennington (135.5)
Jake Ellenberger (171) vs. Josh Koscheck (170.5)
Alan Jouban (170.5) vs. Richard Walsh (171)
Tony Ferguson (156) vs. Gleison Tibau (155)
Roan Carneiro (184.5) vs. Mark Munoz (187.25)*
Roman Salazar (135) vs. Norifumi Yamamoto (136)
Dhiego Lima (170) vs. Tim Means (170)
Derrick Lewis (262) vs. Ruan Potts (253)
James Krause (155) vs. Valmir Lazaro (155.5)
Masio Fullen (145) vs. Alexander Torres (145.5)
* Munoz has two hours to cut to the middleweight max of 186 pounds.
IMO, Munoz looked bad, especially since he missed weight. Ellenberger had to strip to make weight, and he didn't look that great imo. The person who looked the best on the scale was Richard Walsh.
Rekrul is a newb
Last edit: 28/02/2015 01:57
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 28 2015 02:59. Posts 13050
4 free Invicta prelim fights that start in 1 hour from now (7pm PST/10pm EST). The main card will be at 9pm PST/12am EST. There's only one prelim fight that I'm interested in, which is the Jamie Moyle fight.
I only have 3 big bets right now, as I plan to live bet everything else. Some of my single bets contrast with my parlays because I made my parlays right when the lines were released, and I didn't put much thought into the actual match-ups. Kid Yamamoto's line is sitting around -150 right now, which is a big drop from -330 or whatever it was. People are fading Yamamoto's losing streak + inactivity, but his opponent isn't good. If I can get Yamamoto at -145 or better, I'll place a bet on him and then live bet the rest.
- As mentioned before, I'm betting Tibau big pre-fight, and will live-bet Ferguson after round 1, or when/if I feel it's needed.
- I originally picked Lazaro to win, but I forgot that I had made parlays with Krause, so I only have $5 on Lazaro's decision line as a hedge to the Krause parlays. This fight is on Fight Pass, so I can't live bet it, which is why I only made the $5 bet as a hedge.
- As for the Koscheck fight, I still think he's the better overall fighter here, and he didn't look bad on the scale yesterday like Ellenberger did. I'd still bet Koscheck at +100, so +170 is a no-brainer for me.
Holm/Pennington u2.5 +140 $5 for $7
Josh Koscheck +170 $20 for $34
Koscheck/Ellenberger u1.5 +145 $5 for $7.25
Richard Walsh +355 $10 for $35.50
Gleison Tibau +185 $15 for $27.75
Gleison Tibau +205 $30 for $61.50
Roan Carneiro +245 $10 for $24.50
Roan Carneiro by submission +1075 $2 for $21.50
Munoz/Carneiro u2.5 -110 $11 for $10
Norifumi Yamamoto by submission +1525 $2 for $30.50
Yamamoto/Salazar u1.5 +145 $5 for $7.25
Tim Means -110 $33 for $30
Valmir Lazaro by decision +450 $5 for $22.50
PuertoRican United States. Mar 01 2015 03:17. Posts 13050
Damn... Sucks for Kid Yamamoto...
He came back after 3 years to have his fight turned into a No Contest.
Rekrul is a newb
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soberstone United States. Mar 01 2015 03:36. Posts 2662
Wow. Munoz is absolutely done. That was embarrassing.
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PuertoRican United States. Mar 01 2015 03:36. Posts 13050
Roan Carneiro +245 $10 for $24.50
Roan Carneiro +3.5 +101 $10 for $10.10
Roan Carneiro by submission +1075 $2 for $21.50
Munoz/Carneiro u2.5 -110 $11 for $10
Carneiro +140 1u (live bet after he got on top of Munoz)
Rekrul is a newb
Last edit: 01/03/2015 03:37
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soberstone United States. Mar 01 2015 03:37. Posts 2662
On March 01 2015 02:36 PuertoRican wrote:
Roan Carneiro +245 $10 for $24.50
Roan Carneiro +3.5 +101 $10 for $10.10
Roan Carneiro by submission +1075 $2 for $21.50
Munoz/Carneiro u2.5 -110 $11 for $10
Easy money. Good shit.
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soberstone United States. Mar 01 2015 03:43. Posts 2662
Munoz giving that up makes me feel shittier about my Ellenberger picks, the Reign under-achievers and mental midgets.
Still, feel pretty good.
Last edit: 01/03/2015 03:43
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soberstone United States. Mar 01 2015 04:08. Posts 2662
Let's go Ferguson, make it pretty.
Gleison is a good prospect to piss hot in 2k15.
And he somehow weighed 155 yesterday. That's just insane at his age and size.
