UFC FN 61: Bigfoot vs. Mir

Date: Sunday, February 22nd
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 16:30 LP.net / 2:30pm PST / 5:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 17:00 LP.net / 3pm PST / 6pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 19:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Antonio Silva (18-6-1) vs. Frank Mir (16-9) (Heavyweight)
Edson Barboza (15-2) vs. Michael Johnson (15-8) (Lightweight)
Cezar Ferreira (8-3) vs. Sam Alvey (24-6) (Middleweight)
Rustam Khabilov (17-2) vs. Adriano Martins (26-7) (Lightweight)
Iuri Alcantara (31-5) vs. Frankie Saenz (9-2) (Bantamweight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio (19-2) vs. Sean Strickland (15-0) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Jessica Andrade (12-3) vs. Marion Reneau (5-1) (Women's Bantamweight)
William Macario (7-2) vs. Matt Dwyer (7-2) (Welterweight)
Tiago Trator (19-4-2) vs. Mike de la Torre (12-4) (Featherweight)
Douglas Silva de Andrade (22-1) vs. Cody Gibson (12-5) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Ivan Jorge (25-4) vs. Josh Shockley (11-3) (Lightweight)

Other

- T.J. Waldburger fainted in the sauna, fight with Wendell Oliveira pulled from UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs. Mir.
- A light heavyweight bout between Rashad Evans and Glover Teixeira was expected to serve as the event headliner. However, on January 7, Teixeira was forced out of the bout as his knee, injured in his last fight, was slow to heal and he was unable to resume the proper training to prepare for the fight in that time frame. Evans is expected to be rebooked at a different event with possibly a new opponent.

First impression of the match-ups:

- Silva vs. Mir (dunno, but I'm leaning Mir at +220 or better.)
- Barboza > Johnson
- Ferreira > Alvey
- Khabilov > Martins
- Alcantara > Saenz
- Ponzinibbio > Strickland
- Reneau > Andrade
- Macario > Dwyer
- Trator vs. Torre (dunno)
- Oliveira > Waldburger
- Gibson > Andrade
- Jorge > Shockley

Any fights you like besides the top two?

On February 17 2015 05:14 Nazgul wrote: Any fights you like besides the top two?

At the moment, my biggest play on the card will be a parlay of Khabilov and Alcantara.

I'm waiting for people to pound Jessica's line so I can get a better price on Marion. Marion has better technical striking and BJJ and is taller, while Jessica is an in-your-face brawler that wins via aggression. It seems like a good place to go big on Marion pre-fight, then live bet Jessica after round 1 or 2. +190 was a juicy line, but the line isn't released yet on Bookmaker.

I will definitely bet on Bigfoot, Mir has no chance against like anybody in the division right now. It may be my only bet in this event I will investigate Reneau and decide if I should bet on her.

Pretty decent main card imo.

I actually think Bigfoot is pretty bad. I mean his only "real" win in the past couple years was that Overeem win, but as I've said before, Overeem is total garbage so it's not like thats much. I'm leaning towards betting Mir. Mir is quick enough to catch him on the chin, Bigfoot is just really slow with his striking. Weather or not Mir has enough power to put him away is another story, but I feel good about Mir's chances in this fight.

I like the odds on Mir, I think its a good matchup for him. I think its really around 50/50,unless hes completely out of it.

Bigfoot post TRT is like the biggest downslide I've seen. I expect Vitor to be similar. I think this fight is a pickem. Lovin the Mir odds.

Alcantara and Khabilov opened at over 3.5 to 1 on Bookmaker, so parlaying them like I originally wanted to isn't worth much now.

I bet the Macario fight to go o1.5 rounds. Waiting for additional line movement before I bet anything else.

On February 18 2015 00:48 PuertoRican wrote: Alcantara and Khabilov opened at over 3.5 to 1 on Bookmaker, so parlaying them like I originally wanted to isn't worth much now. I bet the Macario fight to go o1.5 rounds. Waiting for additional line movement before I bet anything else.

Yah I'm really thinking about moving to 5-dimes. I'm on bookmaker too and loved the Khabilov opening line but the juice isn't worth the squeeze now. I don't much about Frankie Saenz but doubt he has much for Alcantara who is definitely a fringe top 10 guy, but at -350 Alcantara has been through a lot of wars and I wouldn't love it vs some up and comer. I was on the same parlay as you when Rustam was at -210 or w/e and Alcantara was like -300.

Not touching the Mutante fight because he's chinny and Alvey hits hard but he should win handily.

I think I like Mir and Michael Johnson where they are at right now but will probably just let it play out until fight day.

Also, Cody Gibson I really like, he should probably smoke this Douglas Silva guy but I gotta watch me some tape because I can't keep these shitty undercard Brazilians in my memory bank.

On February 18 2015 01:21 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On February 18 2015 00:48 PuertoRican wrote: Alcantara and Khabilov opened at over 3.5 to 1 on Bookmaker, so parlaying them like I originally wanted to isn't worth much now. I bet the Macario fight to go o1.5 rounds. Waiting for additional line movement before I bet anything else. Yah I'm really thinking about moving to 5-dimes. I'm on bookmaker too and loved the Khabilov opening line but the juice isn't worth the squeeze now. I don't much about Frankie Saenz but doubt he has much for Alcantara who is definitely a fringe top 10 guy, but at -350 Alcantara has been through a lot of wars and I wouldn't love it vs some up and comer. I was on the same parlay as you when Rustam was at -210 or w/e and Alcantara was like -300. Not touching the Mutante fight because he's chinny and Alvey hits hard but he should win handily. I think I like Mir and Michael Johnson where they are at right now but will probably just let it play out until fight day. Also, Cody Gibson I really like, he should probably smoke this Douglas Silva guy but I gotta watch me some tape because I can't keep these shitty undercard Brazilians in my memory bank.

The only reason I moved from 5dimes to Bookmaker almost a year ago is because Bookmaker has true live betting, while 5dimes only offers in between round live betting. If there was no live betting, nobody would ever leave 5dimes because it's easily the best website.

I miss being able to get lines early, reduced juice lines, +3.5 lines pre-fight, good prop lines that are released early, being able to parlay props where I can turn $3 into $50-$100, etc.

On February 18 2015 02:35 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On February 18 2015 01:21 soberstone wrote:   On February 18 2015 00:48 PuertoRican wrote: Alcantara and Khabilov opened at over 3.5 to 1 on Bookmaker, so parlaying them like I originally wanted to isn't worth much now. I bet the Macario fight to go o1.5 rounds. Waiting for additional line movement before I bet anything else. Yah I'm really thinking about moving to 5-dimes. I'm on bookmaker too and loved the Khabilov opening line but the juice isn't worth the squeeze now. I don't much about Frankie Saenz but doubt he has much for Alcantara who is definitely a fringe top 10 guy, but at -350 Alcantara has been through a lot of wars and I wouldn't love it vs some up and comer. I was on the same parlay as you when Rustam was at -210 or w/e and Alcantara was like -300. Not touching the Mutante fight because he's chinny and Alvey hits hard but he should win handily. I think I like Mir and Michael Johnson where they are at right now but will probably just let it play out until fight day. Also, Cody Gibson I really like, he should probably smoke this Douglas Silva guy but I gotta watch me some tape because I can't keep these shitty undercard Brazilians in my memory bank. The only reason I moved from 5dimes to Bookmaker almost a year ago is because Bookmaker has true live betting, while 5dimes only offers in between round live betting. If there was no live betting, nobody would ever leave 5dimes because it's easily the best website. I miss being able to get lines early, reduced juice lines, +3.5 lines pre-fight, good prop lines that are released early, being able to parlay props where I can turn $3 into $50-$100, etc.

Really? I didn't even realize the live betting on Bookmaker was legit... I thought I had checked that out and never saw anything. I'll look for that on Sunday. Nonetheless, I'll probably have money on both sites in the near future. The early lines really are just juicy as fuck.

Even last weekend for instance, which Thatch killed all my parlays so it wouldn't have made a difference, you had Borg who moved from -360 to -1000, Magny who moved from -305 to -900, and Holloway from -350 to -420, and Skelly from -170 to -240... all lines I wanted to jump on (even though I think the Skelly bet turned out to be a bad one, despite the win). That's an insane leap in value. I don't know if that's normal but holy shit those early lines were such easy money.

The Borg line was especially insane. He wins that 99/100 times, hindsight being 20/20 and all.

On February 18 2015 02:47 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On February 18 2015 02:35 PuertoRican wrote:   On February 18 2015 01:21 soberstone wrote:   On February 18 2015 00:48 PuertoRican wrote: Alcantara and Khabilov opened at over 3.5 to 1 on Bookmaker, so parlaying them like I originally wanted to isn't worth much now. I bet the Macario fight to go o1.5 rounds. Waiting for additional line movement before I bet anything else. Yah I'm really thinking about moving to 5-dimes. I'm on bookmaker too and loved the Khabilov opening line but the juice isn't worth the squeeze now. I don't much about Frankie Saenz but doubt he has much for Alcantara who is definitely a fringe top 10 guy, but at -350 Alcantara has been through a lot of wars and I wouldn't love it vs some up and comer. I was on the same parlay as you when Rustam was at -210 or w/e and Alcantara was like -300. Not touching the Mutante fight because he's chinny and Alvey hits hard but he should win handily. I think I like Mir and Michael Johnson where they are at right now but will probably just let it play out until fight day. Also, Cody Gibson I really like, he should probably smoke this Douglas Silva guy but I gotta watch me some tape because I can't keep these shitty undercard Brazilians in my memory bank. The only reason I moved from 5dimes to Bookmaker almost a year ago is because Bookmaker has true live betting, while 5dimes only offers in between round live betting. If there was no live betting, nobody would ever leave 5dimes because it's easily the best website. I miss being able to get lines early, reduced juice lines, +3.5 lines pre-fight, good prop lines that are released early, being able to parlay props where I can turn $3 into $50-$100, etc. Really? I didn't even realize the live betting on Bookmaker was legit... I thought I had checked that out and never saw anything. I'll look for that on Sunday. Nonetheless, I'll probably have money on both sites in the near future. The early lines really are just juicy as fuck. Even last weekend for instance, which Thatch killed all my parlays so it wouldn't have made a difference, you had Borg who moved from -360 to -1000, Magny who moved from -305 to -900, and Holloway from -350 to -420, and Skelly from -170 to -240... all lines I wanted to jump on (even though I think the Skelly bet turned out to be a bad one, despite the win). That's an insane leap in value. I don't know if that's normal but holy shit those early lines were such easy money. The Borg line was especially insane. He wins that 99/100 times, hindsight being 20/20 and all.

Yeah, the live betting at Bookmaker is legit. I pretty much depend on it these days, since all of the cool lines at 5dimes aren't available on Bookmaker like I already mentioned.

Michael Johnson was at +200 earlier today on 5dimes, but only a few people got it. After that, the lines shifted and now he's only +115. I'll lay a nice sized bet on Barboza when he gets to -135 or better.

I've just started trying to learn fighting a couple days ago.

Seems to me lesnar could have got out of that submission or at least resisted it a little longer but he didn't react at all and moved the worst way possible against the direction mir was turning his foot/leg. Seems like if Lesnar had rolled the other way and used his arms to throw his body around onto his stomach his leg would have turned with the submission and then he would have had plenty of leverage from that position to yank his leg out. Mir could try taking it back the other way but i think if lesnar made it to his stomach he could snap pull out of that. am i wrong was he doomed soon as mir got the leg?

ok nevermind i watched the rest of the video and saw it more clearly. I was looking at it wrong. Mir was hyperextending lesnar's knee not twisting it and looked like once mir's foot was hooked to his other leg brock was fucked

On February 17 2015 05:01 PuertoRican wrote: First impression of the match-ups: - Silva vs. Mir (dunno, but I'm leaning Mir at +220 or better.) - Barboza > Johnson - Ferreira > Alvey - Khabilov > Martins - Alcantara > Saenz - Ponzinibbio > Strickland - Reneau > Andrade - Macario > Dwyer - Trator vs. Torre (dunno) - Oliveira > Waldburger - Gibson > Andrade - Jorge > Shockley

Why you think Ponzinibbio will defeat Strickland?

On February 18 2015 17:15 alejandicto wrote: Show nested quote + On February 17 2015 05:01 PuertoRican wrote: First impression of the match-ups: - Silva vs. Mir (dunno, but I'm leaning Mir at +220 or better.) - Barboza > Johnson - Ferreira > Alvey - Khabilov > Martins - Alcantara > Saenz - Ponzinibbio > Strickland - Reneau > Andrade - Macario > Dwyer - Trator vs. Torre (dunno) - Oliveira > Waldburger - Gibson > Andrade - Jorge > Shockley Why you think Ponzinibbio will defeat Strickland?

Strickland is undefeated, but he hasn't impressed me yet in the UFC. He beat McDaniels, but that guy sucks. Most people thought he lost against Barnatt, including me. This time, he'll 've fighting in Brazil where he won't be gifted any decisions against Ponz. Ponz has the better striking imo, and Strickland doesn't have amazing take downs or anything. Also, Ponz improves with each fight I've seen of his.

I should've just said I pick and bet Ponz to win, even though Strickland is more established and I guess the rightful favorite. Ponz +160 or better for me.

The Michael Johnson vs Barboza fight is literally the only fight on the card that has any kind of immediate ramifications as far as their respective divisions go and is the people's main event. I'm excited for this fight.

Heard Michael Johnson talking about how the Blackzilians brought in Nikki Holtzken who is probably the best pure kickboxer in the world near Johnson's weightclass and he said by the end of it he was able to hold his own in the pure kickboxing department. I highly doubt that's completely true but I still like the fact that he was training with that beast. Dude is insanely good. If that's even remotely true Barboza isn't gonna seem so scary. All that said if I had a gun to my head I'd pick Barboza, but I really did like Johnson at big + odds. He strikes well and has power and isn't gonna be an idiot like Bobby Green was, plus he has very good footwork so he can possibly stay out of kicking range and then get into the pocket where he will excel, decent wrestling (although I think this one stays on the feet the whole time as I doubt he can take down Edson at this point), and if you touch Barboza clean its over - he's chinny as fuck. Gonna be a fun one I hope.

In the Mir fight, I just think there is a really good chance you see the worst, slowest Bigfoot ever. If not, you can probably bet good money he's on something as this is in Brazil.

Khabilov should be able to rag-doll Martins and not fall into any submissions, I don't even know if a single Dagistani has been submitted in the UFC besides when Benson jumped on the gassed Khabilov in the 4th round of their fight after a sick lead uppercut.

Still don't know shit about Saenz but Alcantara is very good and well-rounded.

On February 18 2015 08:26 traxamillion wrote: ok nevermind i watched the rest of the video and saw it more clearly. I was looking at it wrong. Mir was hyperextending lesnar's knee not twisting it and looked like once mir's foot was hooked to his other leg brock was fucked

Yah it's basically an armbar but with the knee so the way to defend is by scooting closer / rolling over to put pressure back on the joint.

Coming into that fight, Brock Lesnar was literally just a monster of a human being who was a very good wrestler with power in his hands and absolutely no other technique to speak of. It was a cool moment because it was like a throwback to the early UFC's where Royce Gracie would just choke out dudes that outweighed him by like 100 lbs.

The funny part about Jiu-Jitsu though is that it takes thousands of hours of intense training to master offensive transitions and submissions but only like blue-belt level training + insane athleticism / wrestling to be able to defend pretty much everything in MMA (unless you are going against a top tier black-belt like Jacare or Damian Maia).

That's why in Brock Lesnar's later fights he dominated everybody until he ran into Cain. (than roided out Overeem)

That's also why pretty much all submissions in MMA these days are a result of:

A) Being hurt from strikes first
B) Being gassed out
C) Just slipping on the banana peel and making a huge mistake like leaving your neck exposed for a guillotine while shooting for a takedown

I love seeing submissions that result from stuff other than these 3 because they are rare and awesome and artistic as hell

Just placed 2 more bets:

Frank Mir +250 $15
Marion Reneau +190 $20

I didn't realize the fight was in Brazil. In Brazil I think its closer to 66/33 Silva.
He can use steroids, and Brazilian crowds are mean.

Bigfoot Silva really did look like a different fighter the one time I saw when he was supposedly off steroids.

Anyone cares to explain how steroids usage works in matter of location of fights? Or gimme a link to read about it ? How come are steroids legal at XXX location,but not at YYY considering they are all fighting for the UFC which should have interior regulations ? Or are they allowed by the UFC, but not by XXX's rules?

did u guys see that beast of a card that got announced with jones and johnson.

On February 19 2015 03:00 [GiTM]-Ace wrote: did u guys see that beast of a card that got announced with jones and johnson.

Jon Jones vs. Anthony Johnson [LHW Title]
Chris Weidman vs. Vitor Belfort [MW Title]
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Donald Cerrone
Travis Browne vs. Andrei Arlovski
Joseph Benavidez vs. John Moraga
Islam Makhachev vs. Leo Kuntz

Gonna be sick.

If 187 goes down as planned I'll jizz the pants.

189 also has Lawler v McDonald UNDER Aldo v McGregor. #wow.

On February 19 2015 01:33 Spitfiree wrote: Anyone cares to explain how steroids usage works in matter of location of fights? Or gimme a link to read about it ? How come are steroids legal at XXX location,but not at YYY considering they are all fighting for the UFC which should have interior regulations ? Or are they allowed by the UFC, but not by XXX's rules?

Steroids, or more accurately, banned substances under the WADA code, are against the rules of the UFC period. The UFC, however, until today ironically (see their press conference), deferred to local commissions to enforce rules against PED's via testing under the premise that it was not their responsibility to regulate as that is the whole point of the commissions. Certain commissions, Nevada, California, New Jersey, choose to do out of competition testing at random. Other commissions don't. As anyone who follows this stuff knows, the commissions are a joke and unless the UFC takes the onus upon themselves to police their own 'league', no one will do it adequately for them.

Today, the UFC announced that it will be partnering with 3rd parties to pay for random drug testing year round for all of their fighters. This is a good thing in theory if you are for a clean sport, but it means more dirty tests, and logistical nightmares for the UFC. It is a very complex issue that has many layers and the casual fan doesn't understand or really care about any of it.

In the short run, cleaning up the sport will be a bad thing for the UFC - which is why they have never done it in the past - but they have finally realized that in the long run, it's worth the short term profit loss of the expensive testing, and more expensive loss of big fights, and big fighters that will inevitably pop if they really go through with this.

Furthermore, the UFC fighters are still 'independent contractors', and subjecting them to random drug tests year round is going to be very difficult and could have legal ramifications. The UFC already has a uniform code, pays health insurance, uses fighters in video games, has exclusive contracts, and conducts business with their fighters that many would argue is not 1099 (independent contractors) - but rather W2 (employees). This would mean a lot more taxes, liabilities, etc. for the UFC.

UFC 187 and 189 are gonna be insane.

Holy Shit, UFC 187 is fucking sick.

I will only bet a Parlay: Silva + Barboza (+130)

$50 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/join/38591...fight-night-61-bigfoot-vs-mir-T-free/

On February 19 2015 01:14 Minsk wrote: Bigfoot Silva really did look like a different fighter the one time I saw when he was supposedly off steroids.

I think he actually medically needed it. His gigantism makes his t levels naturally much lower. Though I do think he got surgery to correct that or something.

On February 19 2015 22:34 Stim_Abuser wrote: Show nested quote + On February 19 2015 01:14 Minsk wrote: Bigfoot Silva really did look like a different fighter the one time I saw when he was supposedly off steroids. I think he actually medically needed it. His gigantism makes his t levels naturally much lower. Though I do think he got surgery to correct that or something.

Than unfortunately he doesn't belong in the sport. Can't bend the entire rule-book for 1 guy with Gigantism. May sound harsh, but I'm not the kinda guy who wants to build transgender bathrooms in every school because .01 % of girls think they should have a dick, etc.

But yah, surprised the odds have only gotten juicier for Mir. Starting to lean towards Bigfoot as far as who I'm picking, but I doubt the odds are correct.

Watched some Frankie Saenz... if he gets to +500 or better I'll put a flyer on him. He's a good wrestler with good cardio and a solid clinch game. He could grind out an ugly decision. He'll probably get hurt if not KO'd coming in wild but he shouldn't be worse than +500.

Than again it is Brazil so if it's close we know how that'll probably go anyway. I'd actually only do it if it gets to maybe +550

Maybe Mir's just completely out of it. It's hard to realize its not the same Mir that you have a memory in your head. Its easy to expect a memory.

I took
Mir ML
Silva de Andrade ML
Barbosa ML

almost all the fights are pitting Brazillian vs non-Brazilian.

Sum1 needs to make a Mayweather Paquio thread, it's official now.

Antonio Silva (264) vs. Frank Mir (261)
Edson Barboza (156) vs. Michael Johnson (155)
Cezar Ferreira (185) vs. Sam Alvey (186)
Rustam Khabilov (156) vs. Adriano Martins (156)
Iuri Alcantara (136) vs. Frankie Saenz (136)
Santiago Ponzinibbio (171) vs. Sean Strickland (171)
Jessica Andrade (135) vs. Marion Reneau (134)
William Macario (168) vs. Matt Dwyer (170)
Tiago dos Santos (146) vs. Mike de la Torre (146)
Douglas Silva (135) vs. Cody Gibson (135)
Ivan Jorge (155) vs. Josh Shockley (155)


T.J. Waldburger fainted in the sauna, fight with Wendell Oliveira pulled from UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs. Mir.

Everyone in thread likes Mir

...(goes all in on Bigfoot)...

I don't understand Mir coming in at 261 and with that fat on him for a 5 round fight where he's not gonna over-power the other guy at any point any way. Not happy bout that weight.

Also hilarious that Cezar Mutante is already weening off that juice just like his protege Vitor, still shredded but weighs in at 185 and clearly has lost some of the super-human roidedness - as Vitor goes he goes.

Sucks for Waldburger... I like him.

Thanks, soberstone that made many things clear. It's quite natural that they wouldn't go with an offensive strategy towards PEDs though considering they would only have to lose from it
I'm guessing boxing federations work the same way hence Klitschko being such a beast and basically having tests only when he would be clean

My bets pre-live betting:
+ Show Spoiler +

quick question since its the first time i can bet o/u on rounds.
If i bet Mir/BF under 2,5 does that mean i lose if round 3 starts or does that really mean 2:30 of the 3rd is still my win?

On February 22 2015 22:46 ERASA wrote: quick question since its the first time i can bet o/u on rounds. If i bet Mir/BF under 2,5 does that mean i lose if round 3 starts or does that really mean 2:30 of the 3rd is still my win?

u2.5 rounds means 2 rounds + half of another round. So, as long as the fight ends before the first 2:30 of round 3, you're okay. u2.5 is also known as the fight ending within 12 minutes and 30 seconds.

As far as I know, Mir/Bigfoot is u1.5 rounds, which is what I bet them at. Some European bookies have different totals for fights, but most bookies stick to one total like u1.5/u2.5 for 3-round fights.

Thanks.

HOLY FUCK!

That KO by Dwyer, LOL

lmao... This card is seriously cursed.

I lost like $90 in the previous two fights, and then decided to take it slow in the Macario fight. I saw that Macario left himself open to get hit by the overhand right, and then I made a small bet. He then gets KO`ed by a Super Man punch of all things... rofl...

My fantasy picks are fucking ruined already.

im gonna play around with small bets on props this card.. just tuned in, i got
1 unit 1605 Reneau wins inside distance +622*
1 unit 1629 Reneau wins by TKO/KO +1150*
2 units 1601 Marion Reneau +240*

I hope i dont have any fundamentally contradicting bets there, but from the 10 sec clip i saw of reneau i liked her striking

Fuck ya MArion! Making up that Gody Gibson bullshit for me.

She is sick.

Marion Reneau +190 $20 for $38
Marion Reneau +245 $7.25 for $17.76

I'm back~

That other girl was just dumb.

Ponz +192 @ Bookmaker.

Can't figure out if I should take a 10% arbitrage on Mir

Finally making some money.

Santiago Ponzinibbio +180 $10 for $18
Santiago Ponzinibbio +192 $10 for $19.20

Live bets:
S Ponzinibbio (NHL GRAND SALAMI) 10.00 for 14.40
S Ponzinibbio (NHL GRAND SALAMI) 16.80 for 14.12
S Ponzinibbio (NHL GRAND SALAMI) 25.00 for 15.62

Think I'm going to. Although it ruins all my anticipation for today.

On February 23 2015 01:35 Minsk wrote: Think I'm going to. Although it ruins all my anticipation for today.

Might as well cover your ass as best you can. Today is a crazy, which means you will probably lose most of your pre-fight bets/parlays, and have the chance to make a lot of money via live betting.

I just placed a bet on Frankie Saenz +3.5 points @ +356. If Alcantara doesn't win in the 1st round, he will begin to slow down, especially in this Brazilian arena that has 95% humidity at the moment. Also, if Saenz survives the first round, his wrestling will come into play and he'll be able to tire out Alcantara.

I can see why Iuri Alcantara wasnt happy with this fight now. Pretty shitty opportunity for him career-wise. The line on Saenz was ridiculous.

Saenz at +600. Best flyer I've picked in a while. Unless the robbery comes.

F Saenz +3.5 (NHL GRAND SALAMI) 10.00 for 35.60
F Saenz (NHL GRAND SALAMI) 10.00 for 12.00
F Saenz (NHL GRAND SALAMI) 10.00 for 10.10
F Saenz (NHL GRAND SALAMI) 36.50 for 25.00
F Saenz (NHL GRAND SALAMI) 23.00 for 20.00
F Saenz (NHL GRAND SALAMI) 23.60 for 20.00

So far today

2/22/2015 2/22/2015 Reneau > Andrade SU $10.00 230 23
2/22/2015 2/22/2015 Ponzinibbio > Strickland SU $10.00 181 18
2/22/2015 2/22/2015 Ponzinibbio > Strickland - 3.5 Live Bet $20.00 -300 6.75
2/22/2015 2/22/2015 Saenz > Alcantara SU $10.00 600 60
2/22/2015 2/22/2015 Saenz > Alcantara Live Bet $10.00 -120 8.7

Up $116

Fucking sight didn't even accept my $35.00 Gibson bet.... no clue why, preciate it though.

Martins +3.5 points @ +147

I think the underdog streaks ending here unless Martins can stuff some early TD's, which I'll be watching for that cuz Khabilov can gas.... but if he can ragdoll Martins, there's no chance of a slick submission from the black belt. with how sweaty they are.

Got Martins at +210 live after he got the TD. They both look they are scared of gassing out.

Should have taken Martins, because of the conflict in Ukraine.

On February 23 2015 02:31 Minsk wrote: Should have taken Martins, because of the conflict in Ukraine.

LOl, that meta game

What a shit fight, I think the upsets continue though.

Round 1: Khabilov 7 ss's vs. Martins 6 ss's with 36 seconds of top control via take down.
Round 2: Khabilov 18 ss's vs. Martins 6 ss's.
Round 3: Khabilov 7 ss's vs. Martins 7 ss's with 1:18 of top control via 2 take downs.


Martins 2-1 imo.

Shoot it. Fucking Khabilov, what a terrible fight for him. And Martins just an ultra smart and simultaneously shitty performance.

A MARTINS (NHL GRAND SALAMI) $10 for $32.60
A MARTINS (NHL GRAND SALAMI) $10 for $23.00
A MARTINS +3.5 (NHL GRAND SALAMI) $10 for $14.70

Alvey +3.5 points +140 @ Bookmaker.

I have Alvey at +305. Let's keep the upsets coming.

In the 3 remaining fights, the favorites are guys who have been said to have bad chins by some bettors. Kinda interesting when you think about how the night has went thus far.

LOLolool,oLOLOL this is so awesome

Sam Alvey +305 $10 for $30.50
Sam Alvey +3.5 +140 $10 for $14

Wtf is up with alvey, why does he smile so muchc? Lol

Wouldn't you with that Game Show Host grill?

On February 23 2015 03:02 soberstone wrote: Wouldn't you with that Game Show Host grill?

Speaking of game shows, his wife won America's Next Top Model. She's the red head who manages him and is in his corner.

----------

Pre-fight:

Edson Barboza by decision +210 $20 for $42
Michael Johnson +127 $20 for $25.40

Think I'll live bet Johnson after his points go up a little bit from Barboza landing early kicks. This night has been crazy, and I think Barboza is gonna get clipped.

Not touching this next fight, just gonna enjoy the best fight on the card and it's a close one to call.

Edson Barboza by decision +210 $20 for $42
Michael Johnson +127 $20 for $25.40

Live bets
M Johnson (NHL GRAND SALAMI) 25.00 for 28.25
M Johnson (NHL GRAND SALAMI) 28.40 for 20.00

Grats,

Johnson's a gangster. Interested to see who he fights next.

I couldn't help thinking how far above either guy Anthony Pettis is in striking, and that's a couple of top LW strikers in the world. Pettis is insane.

I'm not sure that Michael Johnson won that fight. If he did its by an inch, not a mile.

On February 23 2015 03:38 Minsk wrote: I'm not sure that Michael Johnson won that fight. If he did its by an inch, not a mile.

I keep track of the fights.

Round 1: Barboza with 18 ss's vs. Johnson's 32 ss's.
Round 2: Barboza with 17 ss's vs. Johnson's 39 ss's with 36 seconds of top control via take down.
Round 3: Barboza with 16 ss's vs. Johnson's 18 ss's with 22 seconds of top control via take down.

Johnson 3-0 imo.

Edit: ss's = significant strikes

Those body kicks dont equal a punch. They equal like 4 punches.

Barboza let johnson dictate the fight way too much.

On February 23 2015 03:41 Minsk wrote: Those body kicks dont equal a punch. They equal like 4 punches.

If you say so.

I know for a fact that kicks are worth more than punches.

A kick to the head has like a 50% KO rate.
A punch to the head has like a 5% KO rate.

On February 23 2015 03:49 Minsk wrote: I know for a fact that kicks are worth more than punches. A kick to the head has like a 50% KO rate. A punch to the head has like a 5% KO rate.

Ok.

I just saw bacne on Bigfoot and am betting him because of it, no joke.

LOL!!!!

Bigfoots chin is officially done. Great win for Mir.

Not really his chin, they are heavyweights and hit hard. He is just soooo slow

No joke, I was down -9 units ($90) to start the card, and ended up +48 units in profit for the day. My best MMA betting day in awhile.

Grats. Saw you guys were crushing once the underdogs winning with Saenz.
I think I've arbitraged like 3 underdogs that have won in a row.

I feel bad for Silva. Like what do you do if you're one of the best heavyweights int he world, have done that your whole life, and cannot take a punch AT ALL.

On February 23 2015 03:59 JonnyCosMo wrote: Not really his chin, they are heavyweights and hit hard. He is just soooo slow

Chin... overall condition with TRT, whatever you want to call it.

Did you see Bigfoots fight with Hunt?

He took literally 50+ shots harder than that single left hook.

He's done. Needs to retire.

I would pick any top HW to ko him.

Lets get brendan schaub vs bigfoot.. just a little something to get him back in the ring

Aside from the Mir fight, this week was a bunch of guys who started at minus odds and than shifter to rediculous odds, much like last week. But it was clear before both weeks, that the favorites in those other fights were much better and the line movement was justified.

This week followed and its a reasonable theory to say the favorites had become overvalued based on that trend, I don't know if it's coincidence or not.

Nonetheless, I doubt its coincidence that that many dogs won and were for the most part, big time dogs. They should have been closer odds on all these fights.

On February 23 2015 04:21 milkman wrote: Lets get brendan schaub vs bigfoot.. just a little something to get him back in the ring

I'm sure it's a fight Schaub would love to take a win.

I'd laugh hysterically if Bigfoot KO'ed him.

DAMN SO MANY UPSETS OMG thank god only -$50

Give him Struuuuuuuuuuuve

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/1...dalv-takes-beating-ufc-fight-night-61

This makes me pretty happy :D