UFC 180: Werdum vs. Hunt

Date: Saturday, November 15th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 18:00 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 19:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 21:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (PPV)

Fabricio Werdum (18-5-1) vs. Mark Hunt (10-8-1) (Interim UFC Heavyweight Championship)
Jake Ellenberger (29-8) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (9-0) (Welterweight)
Ricardo Lamas (14-3) vs. Dennis Bermudez (14-3) (Featherweight)
Augusto Montano (13-1) vs. Chris Heatherly (8-2) (Welterweight)
Edgar Garcia (14-3) vs. Hector Urbina (16-8-1) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Yair Rodriguez (3-1) vs. Leonardo Morales (4-0) (TUF Latin America Featherweight Final)
Alejandro Perez (14-5) vs. Jose Alberto Quinonez (3-1) (TUF Latin America Bantamweight Final)
Jessica Eye (10-2) vs. Leslie Smith (7-5-1) (Women's Bantamweight)
Gabriel Benitez (16-4) vs. Humberto Brown (4-4) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Enrique Briones (15-4-1) vs. Guido Cannetti (6-1) (Bantamweight)
Marco Beltran (5-3) vs. Marlon Vera (6-1-1) (Bantamweight)

Other

- The event was expected to be headlined by a UFC Heavyweight Championship bout between the current champion Cain Velasquez and top contender Fabrício Werdum. However, on October 21, it was announced that Velasquez was forced to pull out of the bout due to an injured knee and was replaced by Mark Hunt. That also changed the originally planned title fight into an interim title bout.
- Also featured on the card will be the featherweight and bantamweight finals of the inaugural installment of The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America.
- Norman Parke was expected to face Diego Sanchez at the event. However, Parke pulled out of the bout in early October citing a knee injury and was briefly replaced by Joe Lauzon. In turn, injuries to both Sanchez and Lauzon led to the pairing being scrapped altogether.
- Erik Perez was expected to face Marcus Brimage at the event. However, Perez pulled out of the bout due to a shoulder injury. In turn, Brimage was then pulled from the card as well and was subsequently matched up with Jumabieke Tuerxun at UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Bisping.

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First impression of the match-ups:

• Werdum > Hunt (Rooting for Hunt.)
• Gastelum > Ellenberger
• Bermudez > Lamas
• Smith > Eye (Should be a close and competitive fight where Eye will look good in the first round, and then start to lose focus like usual and lose the next two rounds. If Eye loses the first round, she has no chance to win the fight since Smith has the better gas tank, non-stop pressure over 3 rounds, better BJJ, and better mental state. If Jessica Eye was able to fight her best in every fight without wilting, she would easily be the #3 woman at bantamweight, just behind the grapplers Rousey and Zingano. Smith is also a crowd-pleaser, and she will instantly win the crowd with her Diaz-like fighting style and attitude in the cage.)

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Werdum > Hunt - Cardio advantage will be as big as the Jitz advantage, and those are two MASSIVE gaps. After about 7 minutes he'll be the more effective striker too unless Mark rocks him early and he survives. Pretty sure anything below -400 is parlayable very profitably. Slightly rooting for Hunt but I like Werdum too and either guy gets mauled by a healthy Cain so w/e.

Gastelum > Ellenberger - Line seems right, wouldn't touch it. If Ellenberger looks better I gotta give big props to the Armenian coach in Glendale - Edmund, because Jake has really not improved in forever.

Bermudez > Lamas - Line seems right, wouldn't touch it

No clue about any of the shitty TUF fighters except that they are really awful and behind the curve

On November 11 2014 21:28 soberstone wrote: Eye > Smith - Rican probably knows these better but from what I've seen, I don't understand this. I only saw Leslie Smith fight on the show and my God she looked terrible, and I thought Eye beat Alexis Davis at a larger weight class.

Which show? TUF? Leslie Smith was never on a season of The Ultimate Fighter.

Its a shame for Hunt that the fight will be at over 2,000m of altitude, his already short tank wont last more than 1.5 rounds, that being said I think Hunt is a bad matchup for Werdum, he is too powerful and diverse for Werdum to ever let himself go loose on his feet, however if Werdum manages to take him down its all over, regardless if he submits Hunt or not, he simply wont have the cardio to do anything after a takedown.

On November 12 2014 00:02 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On November 11 2014 21:28 soberstone wrote: Eye > Smith - Rican probably knows these better but from what I've seen, I don't understand this. I only saw Leslie Smith fight on the show and my God she looked terrible, and I thought Eye beat Alexis Davis at a larger weight class. Which show? TUF? Leslie Smith was never on a season of The Ultimate Fighter.

Yup, I knew our assessments couldn't be so off. It was Lisa Ellis I was thinking of. No wonder. I thought Jessica Eye was moving down and fighting her, and I was like, wtf, Eye is gonna smash this bitch. Never mind that pick then, editing.

On November 12 2014 01:07 Baalim wrote: Its a shame for Hunt that the fight will be at over 2,000m of altitude, his already short tank wont last more than 1.5 rounds, that being said I think Hunt is a bad matchup for Werdum, he is too powerful and diverse for Werdum to ever let himself go loose on his feet, however if Werdum manages to take him down its all over, regardless if he submits Hunt or not, he simply wont have the cardio to do anything after a takedown.

I honestly think once Hunt gasses he we will be very exploitable on the feet. Werdum's striking is definitely not on Hunt's level, but once he gasses, if Werdum wants to pick him apart on the feet, I think he'll be able to without fear of getting KO'd. That said, ofcourse he'll try and get him down sub him, its just so hard to get that short fat ass to the ground if you can't get a hold of 1 of his legs.

On November 12 2014 01:07 Baalim wrote: Its a shame for Hunt that the fight will be at over 2,000m of altitude, his already short tank wont last more than 1.5 rounds, that being said I think Hunt is a bad matchup for Werdum, he is too powerful and diverse for Werdum to ever let himself go loose on his feet, however if Werdum manages to take him down its all over, regardless if he submits Hunt or not, he simply wont have the cardio to do anything after a takedown.

I think the reason why the lines are so much in Werdum's favor is because people expect him to win striking in the later rounds. Hunt had trouble striking with Bigfoot where Werdum didn't at all. This isn't about MMA math it's about a certain level of striking that Werdum possesses. Once fatigue sets in he can win the exchanges.

He can win them before fatigue sets in imo.

He's 6 inches taller and has developed a pretty darn good jab, has decent low kicks he can throw with impunity, has a very good straight right, and Hunto has to worry about the takedown.

Werdums striking has impressed me a lot lately. Only thing it lacks really is power.

I put a small bet on Hunt, he can win 1/3 here. Probably a losing bet but I wanna believe

On November 12 2014 14:05 Stim_Abuser wrote: He can win them before fatigue sets in imo. He's 6 inches taller and has developed a pretty darn good jab, has decent low kicks he can throw with impunity, has a very good straight right, and Hunto has to worry about the takedown. Werdums striking has impressed me a lot lately. Only thing it lacks really is power.

Agree in principle but I think Werdum will be smart and be all the way in or all the way out (certainly the jab is a huge part of that, just don't expect combinations or kicks early) for the first round+ until Hunt gasses and we really won't see a straight striking match either way until Hunt gasses. With a smart strategy it seems to lock a win for him, whereas he'd still probably win like you say if he decided to really put on a show. At some point tho, there will be bombs thrown, and breath will certainly be held. After about 6-7 minutes, Fabricio will pick him apart with the range and excellent striking, or take him down and sub him. Or he very well may just take him down early and sub him quick, but I wouldn't bet on that, because Hunt is very tough to get down and Fabricio has some slick trips but isn't a great wrestler.

WTF Werdum outstriking Hunt without fatigue? Let me remind you that Werdum trains chute boxe style, his striking is sloppy, wild and lacks any resemblance of defense, he has no head movement and he is easy to hit.

The only two good strikers Werdum has faced in the last years have been Overeem and Dos Santos and he lost both of those fights, he does very poorly against superior strikers that arent easy to take down.

I think that if Werdum doesnt manage to take Hunt to the ground he will be easily knocked out, that being said Hunt wont be hard to take down especially if he is tired.


Do this shit against Hunt and you are done:

On November 12 2014 12:52 Nazgul wrote: Show nested quote + On November 12 2014 01:07 Baalim wrote: Its a shame for Hunt that the fight will be at over 2,000m of altitude, his already short tank wont last more than 1.5 rounds, that being said I think Hunt is a bad matchup for Werdum, he is too powerful and diverse for Werdum to ever let himself go loose on his feet, however if Werdum manages to take him down its all over, regardless if he submits Hunt or not, he simply wont have the cardio to do anything after a takedown. I think the reason why the lines are so much in Werdum's favor is because people expect him to win striking in the later rounds. Hunt had trouble striking with Bigfoot where Werdum didn't at all. This isn't about MMA math it's about a certain level of striking that Werdum possesses. Once fatigue sets in he can win the exchanges.

A big part of that was because Hunt broke his left hand, and instead of throwing his best punch, the counter left hook he had to throw some awkward elbows, and yeah I think everybody is aware that Hunt has shitty cardio and Werdum showed an insane cardio against Browne almost at Cains level.

The difference is that unlike Cain, Werdum cant force you easily to fight at his pace as we saw on his fight against Overeem

On November 12 2014 20:55 Baalim wrote: WTF Werdum outstriking Hunt without fatigue? Let me remind you that Werdum trains chute boxe style, his striking is sloppy, wild and lacks any resemblance of defense, he has no head movement and he is easy to hit. The only two good strikers Werdum has faced in the last years have been Overeem and Dos Santos and he lost both of those fights, he does very poorly against superior strikers that arent easy to take down. I think that if Werdum doesnt manage to take Hunt to the ground he will be easily knocked out, that being said Hunt wont be hard to take down especially if he is tired. Do this shit against Hunt and you are done:

Did you watch his fight with Travis Browne? Much, much improved striking. Browne was overrated coming into that fight but now he is being underrated due to what Fabricio did to him. Werdum barely even resembles the same striker he did back in the first JDS or Overeem fights. And obviously him getting wild vs Mike Russow and a battered Big Country doesn't look technical, but that's probably because he didn't need to be technical. I don't disagree though, Hunt is the superior striker in a vacuum, and has much more power, but all in all its just a case of a smart fight by Werdum can make Hunt look really bad in altitude on late notice. Werdum, with a conservative gameplan early, probably enters the danger zone a couple of times max where he loses his range and is open to the big hook or uppercut, and the probability that even a very good striker like Hunt times it perfectly and puts his lights out in those couple of instances is not all that great. Other than that he's drawing dead. He's not gonna have KO power past mid round 2, that I'd bet on (you never know).

Actually, looking at the lines, over 1 1/2 rounds at -120 seems like an amazing bet. Werdum will be conservative, do we really think the combination of him subbing Hunt in rd 1.5 or him getting KO'd in rd 1.5 is that big? I absolutely dont.

Yes I obv watched his fight vs Browne and his striking was very similar, what you saw was him being able to pour it on on a less dangerous opponent, if he fights aggressive like that against somebody like JDS or Reem he is going to get knocked out on the first sloppy flurry he tries, why do you think he only kept jabbing and throwing non-committing 1-2s at Reem?

The same applies to Hunt, if Werdum is stupid enough to open up and go chute boxe on him he isnt going to pass the 1st round.

Notice his left hand... look after jabbing its as low as his waist, he always kees his hand low after punches and has no head movement, if Brown had thrown a right hook it would have landed clean, (no idea why he is slipping with no intentions of countering wtf)





Look this other secuence where Werdum tries to overwhelm Browne, again, no head movement, hands low, puts BOTH of his hands at waist heigh to throw a kick in punching range and eats a left hook counter, literally the best punch Hunt has




I think people underestimate how easily Hunt would KO Werdum

God damn... That was really hard to watch, especially toward the end. Granted, he is in the middle of weight cutting, so he is easily annoyed + pissed off + family issues at home + general issues he deals with on a daily basis.

After seeing this video, I really hope he beats Werdum and gets a shot at the title. After losing to Cain, I'd like to see Hunt retire, that way his mind can be at peace. (He sounds like one of those people who takes their own life because the world is just too much to handle. Hopefully I'm wrong.)

poor dude, i hope he somehow converts that into strenght

That was a tough watch.