U.S Open 2014 Tennis

http://www.usopen.org/index.html

I know there are some tennis fans on this site. Let's get the discussion going. Federer looked pretty damn good against Matosevic yesterday. Djokovic cruising but will face a tough draw. Nadal is at home watching Kyrgios beating top10 guys in the first round. Maybe a bit bitter about Wimbledon still.

I hope Olderer has 1 more left in him

I hope Dimitrov starts serving well so he wont lose to the first top10 opponent he faces

Tennis is my 2nd favorite sport behind MMA. If you use Bookmaker, there's a ton of live betting going on everyday for most of these matches.

The WTA section has a lot of interesting stuff going on right now cuz Serena was put in a super easy section and the bottom half was relatively stacked prior to a couple favorites getting knocked out already.

Would be such a treat to see Federer win using the tactic of coming to the net a lot. Breaching the gap between the previous era (or the one before?) and today. WTA is pretty unpredictable imo. Even the top seeds struggle for a set and a half and then get their shit together or just lose it and never recover. Also Monfils one time !!

That dude Serena Williams has a strong serve.

Fed looked great the other day. Backhand was looking vicious. Not as fast as he used to be but am excited to watch him compete this year.

Djok looked pretty damn good too.

I have not been following much tennis recently but seems like I always have to U.S. Open Labor Day weekend.

Perhaps a dark horse will win.

On August 29 2014 12:27 cariadon wrote: Perhaps a dark horse will win.

You mean the Williams sisters or Tsonga?

Dimitrov, Monfils, Nishikori.

Tsonga is really good lately.
I think he might have a chance to win this year.
Also,it looks like we might get Federer vs Dimitrov soon.
This will be a great match to watch...and I think it will be possible for Dimitrov to win vs Fedex this time.

Nishikori vs Cilic in the finals. So happy for Nishikori, guy is really good. Disappointed in Federers game.. Cilic just pounded big serves and groundstrokes. Fun fact Djokovic won more points but ended up losing against Nishikori.

On August 31 2014 08:47 TalentedTom wrote: Show nested quote + On August 29 2014 12:27 cariadon wrote: Perhaps a dark horse will win. You mean the Williams sisters or Tsonga?

ROFL

Nishikori vs Cilic Finals???

who?

I'm rooting for Nishikori. Cilic is playing out of this world, it can't be sustainable forever. He is just going for every shot full power.

On August 28 2014 02:51 cariadon wrote: Would be such a treat to see Federer win using the tactic of coming to the net a lot. Breaching the gap between the previous era (or the one before?) and today. WTA is pretty unpredictable imo. Even the top seeds struggle for a set and a half and then get their shit together or just lose it and never recover. Also Monfils one time !!

Federer is great at the net, but getting there is the problem. His approach shots were terrible during the last few rounds. He can serve and volley well in general, but failed against cilic. 6'6 with infinite wingspan to get to every serve and he hit every return perfect all day .

CILIC was ripping the ball.

also crazy how good nishikori is at 5'10" 150 lbs. Like a better ferrer.

monfils was surprisingly good but man; dude is pounding sodas at the changeover and gets unreal tilted the instant things go wrong.

hmm I was hoping Raonic would get further; if he had a better return game/speed/backhand he would be unstoppable.145 mph aces all day.

going to go check who is favored in the finals. kinda hard to say. If cilic plays like he did today he wins but nishikori has been a stud also and had a much harder route to the finals. hopefully all those tough matches don't drain him for the end.

guessing cilic -130?

nope i had it backwards. Nishikori -130

figured one of them was around there

throwing a little something on cilic based on how he has been playing and his physical advantages even though i do think nishikori is probably the better player overall.

nishikori is basically an out of shape djokovic. they play really similar, hes just a gigantic pussy who bitches out mid match a lot. i remember a match a few months ago where he was destroying nadal, then midway through set 2 his back gives out and he couldnt play a point afterwards. but when hes fresh and not injured its so impressive how he is able to keep 6'2 175 pound guys who should hit harder 8 feet behind the baseline. hes not some speed demon who runs down every ball like monfils/djoker, but hes very quick and seems to get into position to hit balls in range better than anyone.

cilic is a very clear roider. pretty sure hes been busted before and definitely cycled before the tournament. he played unbelievable vs fed, there wasnt really much fed could do. every ground stroke was perfect and his serve was on.

kei is 5-2 vs cilic lifetime and won 5 of last 6 but i dont think he would beat the cilic that played yesterday. not to mention, have to favor cilic in a longer match with kei's fitness troubles. i think the line should be reversed like you trax.

Naysayers were questioning Kei's fitness before the US Open started. Then he went 5 sets vs Raonic and Wawrinka. He's also 9-3 career in 5 setters. He will be fine.

On September 07 2014 00:39 Daut wrote: Show nested quote + On August 28 2014 02:51 cariadon wrote: Would be such a treat to see Federer win using the tactic of coming to the net a lot. Breaching the gap between the previous era (or the one before?) and today. WTA is pretty unpredictable imo. Even the top seeds struggle for a set and a half and then get their shit together or just lose it and never recover. Also Monfils one time !! Federer is great at the net, but getting there is the problem. His approach shots were terrible during the last few rounds. He can serve and volley well in general, but failed against cilic. 6'6 with infinite wingspan to get to every serve and he hit every return perfect all day .

I'd just like Federer to win another slam and even better if he achieves that coming to the net a lot. He's the only guy who can concievably do it at the moment. He has a venomous chip slice, he reads the game well and has great hands. Djokovic is terrible to watch at the net, always prefering the dropshot over other options and terrible position/hands for a No.1 player.

I'd pick Nishikori to win because i like him more. He can create some funky angles and is interesting to watch. Because he lacks a killer serve he finds creative ways to solve points. Just look at Simon... guy is 70kg. Djokovic, Ferrer and Simon are best at absorbing oncoming power and not blinking in highpaced rallies.

How Cilic played is unsustainable even Federer said Cilic was just too good and he felt like he should've had some chances. Cilic blasting winners from every corner of the court. Impossible to get into a rhythm and pick him apart when he is constantly all-in every shot win or lose. It just boils down to serve, return and first shot pretty much. This reminds me how Dimitrov beat Nadal in Wimbledon. Nadal was really pissed in the post match press conference because Dimitrov kept going allin on second serves aswell on clutch points and making them. If someone is feeling like a demigod there is not much you can do.

Overall i'm very happy about how things turned out. If there was Djokovic or Federer in the final he would take all the spotlight. This way whoever wins will be the focus of the story and maybe the early start of a new era or generation of tennis where guys just rip it all day. Brown, Dimitrov, Raonic, Goffin, etc. Lots of up and coming guys with unbelievable sustainability in crazy shots. Also Monfils is playing different in the sense of being more agressiv and arguably moving even better and not so reckless.

On September 07 2014 11:10 urasofty wrote: Naysayers were questioning Kei's fitness before the US Open started. Then he went 5 sets vs Raonic and Wawrinka. He's also 9-3 career in 5 setters. He will be fine.

http://tennis.matchstat.com/PlayerInjuries/8806

kei has retired or given his opponents a walkover 18 times. hes 24 years old. cilic has never retired and only given 2 walkovers in his career. and hes older.
notable players retire/walkover numbers:
federer 2
djokovic 13 (but none since 2011)
murray 7
nadal 9
lleyton hewitt 9 (posted cause hes had a long career)

kei has more than any of them, and >=2x most.


not to mention, kei called the trainer multiple times vs raonic, called the trainer vs stan and looked like he couldnt move in the 5th set, looked like he was dying at different points of the 2nd/3rd sets yesterday vs djokovic. no matter how you slice it, the guy's fitness is not up to par. he has lots of heart and fights through it, but he needs to work on his physical toughness and endurance.

Sometimes you go god mode.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3COpP_Kgo0

Cilic will win it for sure

To me Cilic is clearly the favorite.
Nishikori slight favorite for most bookmakers.
Wozniacki to beat Williams...one time!!( got some nice money in on semi finals Nishikori and Cilic+Wozniacki to win the final, combo bet...)

I like thise numbers daut, iirc federer never ret in a match. I think that "2" comes from wo which is impressive since hes been playing since 98 or 99

On September 07 2014 16:37 Raidern wrote: I like thise numbers daut, iirc federer never ret in a match. I think that "2" comes from wo which is impressive since hes been playing since 98 or 99

correct. fed never retired, cilci hasnt either.

now, thats not really an indicator of how someone will perform in the finals, but i do think kei thinks physical pain is worse than it is somehow. and he did retire in a finals a few months ago against nadal after dominating him for 1.5 sets.

i definitely agree that cilic's play is unsustainable. the way he played vs fed i think he would have been a favorite over anyone in history. served high percentage, returned every ball perfectly, hit winners against every mediocre approach shot. just really cant do better than that.

even if his play deteriorates a little, i still think he should be favored. i still think kei is the better player until cilic proves he can do this for a longer period of time, but if the last few rounds are an indicator im making cilic favorite. if this match were happening in 4 months id say kei -150.


definitely not going to bet it. its a case where all of the info conflicts:
-kei beat a somewhat similar player in raonic who is higher ranked
-kei has won 5 of their last 6 meetings
-cilic is the fitter man with an easier road
-cilic is currently playing the better tennis

not sure what factors outweigh the others. really interested to see the match today. would not be surprised by almost any outcome: kei winning in 3, cilic winning in 3, kei winning in 5, cilic winning in 5, kei retiring, anything. exciting

I think the "big game" is mainstream and the idea more easily reinforced by such performances like Cilic displayed in the semi. Playing such a big game is vulnerable to the same sort of fragility N. N. Taleb is preaching. It applies to most models and basically means that if you modify the conditions e.g. wind, rain, slower playing conditions, perhaps a rain delay, some randomness then Nishikori should be favoured in such situations. Nadal, Djokovic, Murray all excel at being really consistent while playing near their limits. Very consistent players who occasionally get stunned by hard hitters. The way Federer was moving, playing and the attitude after the first set i was sure he would get and take his chances. When Federer is "on" he can do whatever he wants but he has to get in the right mindset for this to happen.

I still favor Nishikori, at the end of the day the nerves of the finals will get to Cilic and he will beat himself. Nishikori es less vulnerable to going 0:1 or 1:2 down in sets i feel. We'll see. Hopefully it will atleast be an interesting mach that goes 4 or 5 sets.

any value in Monfils at 100:1 to win the Australian Open?

The books seem to be big on Kyrgios. Looks like they have him as a top 10 player already

anyone want to make a wager? ill give u cilic at +110 and i'll take nishikori at -110 for any amount. plz pm me if ur interested.

Kyrgios is young and hasn't established himself. Monfils to win Australian Open 100:1 pfft, i just love the man and i'd say he is good for it. Predicting the winner of Australian and US Open is very hard and a rare event i don't really see any monetary value in making such bets. Wimbledon and Roland Garros much easier.

Cilic looking strong (prob roid like Daut said) and seems to have shook off the nerves faster

I know testing for tennis players is piss poor but how can one tell, or prophecise about whether someone is taking roids. What are the clues? Besides playing like a madman, i went and watched Puerta in 2005 RG finals.

Well this guy actually tested positive for a banned stimulant last year

On September 08 2014 17:14 cariadon wrote: I know testing for tennis players is piss poor but how can one tell, or prophecise about whether someone is taking roids. What are the clues? Besides playing like a madman, i went and watched Puerta in 2005 RG finals.

here are my reasons:
-he has been caught before
-in his match with simon he was the fresher player in set 5. simon is the kind of guy who never tires
-he is getting stronger as the tournament goes

if i play 2 sets of tennis my body hurts for days. i work out every day, play sports, and am in good shape, but i am seriously beaten up by a few sets playing against guys who suck. these guys are playing intense 3-5 sets every other day along with 1-2 hour practice sessions each day. i just dont see how a non roiding human makes it through 14 days of that without his body breaking down. and hes actually getting stronger....

i would guess hes taking some form of testosterone and has very high T levels which allows for really quick recovery, increased speed/strength and great endurance.

Also fake injuries to run their cycles

Guys playing like he shot straight testosterone right before the match

imagine we had really basic assumptions:
-cilic will win 75% of his service points
-kei will win 65% of his service points

i suspect if we simulated a match 10000 times based on those assumptions cilic would win >80%. this disparity in serving ability is the reason why a guy like raonic is top 10. pretty average player overall, but wins a super high % of his service points, so he wins lots of matches.

of course there are other factors at play: tilt, tightening up, one player getting tired, serving more inaccurately than usual, etc. but given what we knew going into this match from the last 4-5 days, i think cilic probably should have been at least -250. we just couldnt believe that it was sustainable play and that kei had an edge due to their matches in the past

That sounds spot on. Books were way off