UFC on FOX 12: Lawler vs. Brown

Date: Saturday, July 26th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 15:15 LP.net / 1:15pm PST / 4:15pm EST
Preliminary Card (FOX): 17:00 LP.net / 3pm PST / 6pm EST
Main Card (FOX): 19:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (FOX)

Robbie Lawler (23-10) vs. Matt Brown (19-11) (Welterweight Championship title eliminator)
Anthony Johnson (17-4) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (21-5) (Light Heavyweight)
Clay Guida (31-14) vs. Dennis Bermudez (13-3) (Featherweight)
Josh Thomson (20-6) vs. Bobby Green (22-5) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (FOX)

Jorge Masvidal (26-8) vs. Daron Cruickshank (15-4) (Lightweight)
Kyle Kingsbury (11-5) vs. Patrick Cummins (5-1) (Light Heavyweight)
Hernani Perpetuo (17-4) vs. Tim Means (20-6-1) (Welterweight)
Michael De La Torre (12-4) vs. Brian Ortega (8-0) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Akbarh Arreola (22-7-1) vs. Tiago dos Santos (18-4-2) (Lightweight)
Steven Siler (23-12) vs. Noad Lahat (7-1) (Featherweight)
Andreas Stahl (9-0) vs. Gilbert Burns (7-0) (Welterweight)
Juliana Lima (6-1) vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk (6-0) (Women's Strawweight)

Other

- Viscardi Andrade was briefly scheduled to face Andreas Stahl at the event. However, Andrade was replaced on the card by promotional newcomer Gilbert Burns.
- Michael Johnson was expected to face Josh Thomson at the event. However, on July 11, Johnson pulled out of the bout and was replaced by Bobby Green.
- Due to programming needs, the televised preliminaries have been shifted to Fox instead of being aired on Fox Sports 1 or Fox Sports 2.

First thoughts:

• Lawler > Brown
• Johnson > Nogueira
• Bermudez > Guida
• Thomson > Green
• Masvidal vs. Cruickshank (dunno yet)
• Kingsbury > Cummins
• Means > Perpetuo
• Torre > Ortega
• Arreola vs. Santos (dunno yet)
• Siler > Lahat
• Stahl vs. Burns (dunno yet)
• Lima > Jedrzejczyk

Ortega > Torre

Dun fuck wit T-City

matt brown 1 time!!!

On July 21 2014 18:26 JonnyCosMo wrote: Ortega > Torre Dun fuck wit T-City

If Ortega had better stand up and didn't need to win via submission, I'd agree with you.

From the tape that I watched, I think Torre will win via decision if he can stop Ortega's take downs/trips, which don't seem all that great. If Torre follows the game plan provided to him by the MMA Lab, he should win, imo.

Any reason for your Bermudez pick? I don't disagree completely I'm just completely torn and kind of think Guida is a value as a dog. Bermudez win streak is not impressive in that he probably lost to Holloway and maybe even Grice.

I also think Cruikshank Masvidal is a toss up

Tim Means looked like dog shit vs Magny so I wouldn't touch him but I love the dirty bird.

Lawlor should win but at this point making the odds any further would just be disrespectful to Brown's 'it' factor so I'll prolly just not touch that one either.

On July 21 2014 19:36 soberstone wrote: Any reason for your Bermudez pick? I don't disagree completely I'm just completely torn and kind of think Guida is a value as a dog. Bermudez win streak is not impressive in that he probably lost to Holloway and maybe even Grice. I also think Cruikshank Masvidal is a toss up Tim Means looked like dog shit vs Magny so I wouldn't touch him but I love the dirty bird. Lawlor should win but at this point making the odds any further would just be disrespectful to Brown's 'it' factor so I'll prolly just not touch that one either.

Bermudez is younger, stronger, has better wrestling, striking, and is getting better with each fight. Guida continues to struggle at 145, as he can't get anything done if he can't employ his wrestling and land his wild overhand right hand, and is getting relatively "old." IMO, Bermudez is a better version of Guida in every department, minus the big hair that flops around and makes it look like he's actually doing something when he's on top or in the clinch with his opponent.

Most people, myself included, have forgotten that Bermudez is on a 6-fight winning streak, and would be on a 7-fight win streak if he didn't get reckless against Brandao. Brandao was getting his but kicked prior to getting a submission.

Edit: Bermudez opened up at -140 at Bookmaker. I like -140, but I'm gonna see where Guida's name carries the line during the next 2 days. I wouldn't be surprised if Bermudez is -125 or better on fight day.

Fair enough, I don't agree but I think you make fine points.

I think Guida looked pretty exceptional vs Kawajiri (who could be declining himself so that's not a flawless point) but that's still probably better than any win than D.B. has ever had). That said, it is all about assessing their career trajectory's and the matchup itself (skillset vs skillset) - but I personally think Guida as a dog is a value.

Another point, I guarantee you Guida looks fresher and probably wins the third round, and this one has a high chance of going to decision.

I would say Bermudez can take a better shot and hit harder than Guida, so when they inevitably slug it out, B prolly takes the advantage but I think Guida will be stronger in the scrambles and in the cardio, that + experience = good play.

Yeah, Guida does have a chance to win. Bermudez won't go out there and smoke Guida, I just think Bermudez is the better fighter in this stage of their careers. Guida by decision would be a good hedge bet to Bermudez' money line, but I'll be live betting this match anyway, so I will bet Bermudez pre-fight and then live bet the rest.

The fight I'm gonna look to try and put a big bet on is Kingsbury vs. Cummins.Kingsbury hasn't fought in 1.5 years, but he should have enough skill, cardio, and chin to defeat Cummins. Kingsbury is a longtime member of team AKA, home of Cain Velasquez and Daniel Cormier, and as you remember, Cormier owned Cummins. Kingsbury is a former high school football player and wrestler, and college football player, so he's big and strong. I'm hoping Kingsbury's long layoff and his 3-fight losing streak will open him up as the underdog here. I'm not sure what bettors think about Cummins, and nobody has even mentioned this fight in the betting thread that I frequent, so I'm interested to see the opening lines and eventual line shift.

The only fight I'm actually interested in betting on from the Fight Pass prelims is Siler vs. Lahat. I like Siler in this one. As always, there's no live betting on Fight Pass fights.

Prolly you haven't seen Joanna Jedrzejczyk fights as she fought almost all the time in Poland. She is really, really good (esp stand up) - top in the world in this weight class I would say.

so, Lima < Jedrzejczyk

Sick free card. One of the best ever probably. Better than almost every PPV this year.

Picks

lawler
Johnson
Guida
Thomson.

I think while obviously a solid underdog, I don't think Brown is drawing dead like most people think.

I think if Brown can make Lawler fight backing up, pressure him get him against the cage and use his nasty clinch work, and throw lots of kicks, he might be able to wear Lawler down and beat him. Gonna be hard to do though without Lawler taking his head off. Or more likely crumpling him with some nasty body shots.

Can't wait, so pumped.

Not to derail thread, but I can't help myself, 178 is already STACKED.

Gus vs Jones II
Porier vs McGregor
Dominick Cruz (finally) vs Mizugaki
Kennedy vs Romero
Wonderboy vs Cote (who should be drawing dead in this fight)
Cat Zingano vs Amanda Nunes
John Howard vs Ebersole (stupid fight but w/e)

So excited. UFC interest kinda mini re-surging amid a dry spell right now I feel like, and it's Rousey, Weidman and McGregor doing the heavy lifting.

mcgregor is GSP cutting weight and growing a beard

On July 22 2014 04:26 repo86 wrote: Prolly you haven't seen Joanna Jedrzejczyk fights as she fought almost all the time in Poland. She is really, really good (esp stand up) - top in the world in this weight class I would say. so, Lima < Jedrzejczyk

I just watched her fights against Karla Benitez and Rosi Sexton, and I agree that Joanna will probably beat Juliana Lima. Lima has the same style as Benitez and Sexton, and while she is tall for the weight class, she isn't a physically strong woman.

Joanna opened at -280 on 5dimes, so there's no real value in her line. Once it gets to Bookmaker, I might add her to a parlay, but not sure yet. Lima opened at +200. I'll probably wait for people to bet on Lima before I make my decision about adding Joanna to a parlay or not.

looks like johnson is a good name for a poster

FUCKING DC VS JONES

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

as for this event..........................one of the 4 main card fight is gonna be an upset

Not that Noad Lahat is looking past Steven Siler, whom he meets at UFC on FOX 12 in San Jose Saturday night…but Lahat is looking past Steven Siler.

Lahat’s Sunday commitment, win or lose, will be rejoining his friends in the Israeli army and taking a stand against the Palestinians who are again butting heads with the Israelis in overlapping conflict zone of Gaza. In the brutal, complicated, generation’s old conflict, Lahat, who spent three-and-a-half years in the army, will put prizefighting on hold. He flies out Sunday for the other fight.

"I have to do it morally, I don’t have to do it legally," he says. "The thing is, the whole last month and a half it’s been crazy. My family has about 15 seconds every time an alarm goes off to take a shelter from missiles. And for us, it’s not some faraway war on the other side of the world. It’s by my home. I need to go protect my family, protect my country, protect my future."

"As soon as they call my unit, I’m in," Lahat says. "I’m going to join my brothers, the same people I served with for years. And there’s no other way for me. And for me to be here, not at home right now, it’s something that…it’s beyond miserable. For me to be here and not at home right now, not being at home with my people. To be fighting in sunny California, it’s a horrible feeling."

Lahat served for three-and-a-half years in the Israeli army as part of a paratrooper unit. His mother (intelligence) and father (special forces) are former generals. His friends, whom he served with before pursuing a career in MMA and now work in high fields, are steadying themselves back in Israel. They have all been put on warning to be ready. When the call officially comes, they will step out of their everyday lives and re-enter the war block.

Since the conflict got started, Lahat has been distracting himself in training for his fight with Siler. He says his teammates at AKA have been empathetic to what’s going on, and have helped him by "punching me as hard as they can."

"The only time I could take my mind off of that was in the gym sparring," he says. "Other than that, I am watching news or on the phone with friends and family all the time. It’s been a hard camp."


Source: http://www.mmafighting.com/2014/7/23/...to-israel-sunday-for-the-fight-beyond

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Siler is already the favorite for this match, and knowing that Lahat doesn't care if he wins or loses because he's going to fight in a war the very next day, there's no way you can take Lahat in this fight.