UFC on FOX 12: Lawler vs. Brown

Date: Saturday, July 26th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 15:15 LP.net / 1:15pm PST / 4:15pm EST
Preliminary Card (FOX): 17:00 LP.net / 3pm PST / 6pm EST
Main Card (FOX): 19:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (FOX)

Robbie Lawler (23-10) vs. Matt Brown (19-11) (Welterweight Championship title eliminator)
Anthony Johnson (17-4) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (21-5) (Light Heavyweight)
Clay Guida (31-14) vs. Dennis Bermudez (13-3) (Featherweight)
Josh Thomson (20-6) vs. Bobby Green (22-5) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (FOX)

Jorge Masvidal (26-8) vs. Daron Cruickshank (15-4) (Lightweight)
Kyle Kingsbury (11-5) vs. Patrick Cummins (5-1) (Light Heavyweight)
Hernani Perpetuo (17-4) vs. Tim Means (20-6-1) (Welterweight)
Michael De La Torre (12-4) vs. Brian Ortega (8-0) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Akbarh Arreola (22-7-1) vs. Tiago dos Santos (18-4-2) (Lightweight)
Steven Siler (23-12) vs. Noad Lahat (7-1) (Featherweight)
Andreas Stahl (9-0) vs. Gilbert Burns (7-0) (Welterweight)
Juliana Lima (6-1) vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk (6-0) (Women's Strawweight)

Other

- Viscardi Andrade was briefly scheduled to face Andreas Stahl at the event. However, Andrade was replaced on the card by promotional newcomer Gilbert Burns.
- Michael Johnson was expected to face Josh Thomson at the event. However, on July 11, Johnson pulled out of the bout and was replaced by Bobby Green.
- Due to programming needs, the televised preliminaries have been shifted to Fox instead of being aired on Fox Sports 1 or Fox Sports 2.

First thoughts:

• Lawler > Brown
• Johnson > Nogueira
• Bermudez > Guida
• Thomson > Green
• Masvidal vs. Cruickshank (dunno yet)
• Kingsbury > Cummins
• Means > Perpetuo
• Torre > Ortega
• Arreola vs. Santos (dunno yet)
• Siler > Lahat
• Stahl vs. Burns (dunno yet)
• Lima > Jedrzejczyk

Ortega > Torre

Dun fuck wit T-City

matt brown 1 time!!!

On July 21 2014 18:26 JonnyCosMo wrote: Ortega > Torre Dun fuck wit T-City

If Ortega had better stand up and didn't need to win via submission, I'd agree with you.

From the tape that I watched, I think Torre will win via decision if he can stop Ortega's take downs/trips, which don't seem all that great. If Torre follows the game plan provided to him by the MMA Lab, he should win, imo.

Any reason for your Bermudez pick? I don't disagree completely I'm just completely torn and kind of think Guida is a value as a dog. Bermudez win streak is not impressive in that he probably lost to Holloway and maybe even Grice.

I also think Cruikshank Masvidal is a toss up

Tim Means looked like dog shit vs Magny so I wouldn't touch him but I love the dirty bird.

Lawlor should win but at this point making the odds any further would just be disrespectful to Brown's 'it' factor so I'll prolly just not touch that one either.

On July 21 2014 19:36 soberstone wrote: Any reason for your Bermudez pick? I don't disagree completely I'm just completely torn and kind of think Guida is a value as a dog. Bermudez win streak is not impressive in that he probably lost to Holloway and maybe even Grice. I also think Cruikshank Masvidal is a toss up Tim Means looked like dog shit vs Magny so I wouldn't touch him but I love the dirty bird. Lawlor should win but at this point making the odds any further would just be disrespectful to Brown's 'it' factor so I'll prolly just not touch that one either.

Bermudez is younger, stronger, has better wrestling, striking, and is getting better with each fight. Guida continues to struggle at 145, as he can't get anything done if he can't employ his wrestling and land his wild overhand right hand, and is getting relatively "old." IMO, Bermudez is a better version of Guida in every department, minus the big hair that flops around and makes it look like he's actually doing something when he's on top or in the clinch with his opponent.

Most people, myself included, have forgotten that Bermudez is on a 6-fight winning streak, and would be on a 7-fight win streak if he didn't get reckless against Brandao. Brandao was getting his but kicked prior to getting a submission.

Edit: Bermudez opened up at -140 at Bookmaker. I like -140, but I'm gonna see where Guida's name carries the line during the next 2 days. I wouldn't be surprised if Bermudez is -125 or better on fight day.

Fair enough, I don't agree but I think you make fine points.

I think Guida looked pretty exceptional vs Kawajiri (who could be declining himself so that's not a flawless point) but that's still probably better than any win than D.B. has ever had). That said, it is all about assessing their career trajectory's and the matchup itself (skillset vs skillset) - but I personally think Guida as a dog is a value.

Another point, I guarantee you Guida looks fresher and probably wins the third round, and this one has a high chance of going to decision.

I would say Bermudez can take a better shot and hit harder than Guida, so when they inevitably slug it out, B prolly takes the advantage but I think Guida will be stronger in the scrambles and in the cardio, that + experience = good play.

Yeah, Guida does have a chance to win. Bermudez won't go out there and smoke Guida, I just think Bermudez is the better fighter in this stage of their careers. Guida by decision would be a good hedge bet to Bermudez' money line, but I'll be live betting this match anyway, so I will bet Bermudez pre-fight and then live bet the rest.

The fight I'm gonna look to try and put a big bet on is Kingsbury vs. Cummins.Kingsbury hasn't fought in 1.5 years, but he should have enough skill, cardio, and chin to defeat Cummins. Kingsbury is a longtime member of team AKA, home of Cain Velasquez and Daniel Cormier, and as you remember, Cormier owned Cummins. Kingsbury is a former high school football player and wrestler, and college football player, so he's big and strong. I'm hoping Kingsbury's long layoff and his 3-fight losing streak will open him up as the underdog here. I'm not sure what bettors think about Cummins, and nobody has even mentioned this fight in the betting thread that I frequent, so I'm interested to see the opening lines and eventual line shift.

The only fight I'm actually interested in betting on from the Fight Pass prelims is Siler vs. Lahat. I like Siler in this one. As always, there's no live betting on Fight Pass fights.

Prolly you haven't seen Joanna Jedrzejczyk fights as she fought almost all the time in Poland. She is really, really good (esp stand up) - top in the world in this weight class I would say.

so, Lima < Jedrzejczyk

Sick free card. One of the best ever probably. Better than almost every PPV this year.

Picks

lawler
Johnson
Guida
Thomson.

I think while obviously a solid underdog, I don't think Brown is drawing dead like most people think.

I think if Brown can make Lawler fight backing up, pressure him get him against the cage and use his nasty clinch work, and throw lots of kicks, he might be able to wear Lawler down and beat him. Gonna be hard to do though without Lawler taking his head off. Or more likely crumpling him with some nasty body shots.

Can't wait, so pumped.

Not to derail thread, but I can't help myself, 178 is already STACKED.

Gus vs Jones II
Porier vs McGregor
Dominick Cruz (finally) vs Mizugaki
Kennedy vs Romero
Wonderboy vs Cote (who should be drawing dead in this fight)
Cat Zingano vs Amanda Nunes
John Howard vs Ebersole (stupid fight but w/e)

So excited. UFC interest kinda mini re-surging amid a dry spell right now I feel like, and it's Rousey, Weidman and McGregor doing the heavy lifting.

mcgregor is GSP cutting weight and growing a beard

On July 22 2014 04:26 repo86 wrote: Prolly you haven't seen Joanna Jedrzejczyk fights as she fought almost all the time in Poland. She is really, really good (esp stand up) - top in the world in this weight class I would say. so, Lima < Jedrzejczyk

I just watched her fights against Karla Benitez and Rosi Sexton, and I agree that Joanna will probably beat Juliana Lima. Lima has the same style as Benitez and Sexton, and while she is tall for the weight class, she isn't a physically strong woman.

Joanna opened at -280 on 5dimes, so there's no real value in her line. Once it gets to Bookmaker, I might add her to a parlay, but not sure yet. Lima opened at +200. I'll probably wait for people to bet on Lima before I make my decision about adding Joanna to a parlay or not.

looks like johnson is a good name for a poster

FUCKING DC VS JONES

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

as for this event..........................one of the 4 main card fight is gonna be an upset

Not that Noad Lahat is looking past Steven Siler, whom he meets at UFC on FOX 12 in San Jose Saturday night…but Lahat is looking past Steven Siler.

Lahat’s Sunday commitment, win or lose, will be rejoining his friends in the Israeli army and taking a stand against the Palestinians who are again butting heads with the Israelis in overlapping conflict zone of Gaza. In the brutal, complicated, generation’s old conflict, Lahat, who spent three-and-a-half years in the army, will put prizefighting on hold. He flies out Sunday for the other fight.

"I have to do it morally, I don’t have to do it legally," he says. "The thing is, the whole last month and a half it’s been crazy. My family has about 15 seconds every time an alarm goes off to take a shelter from missiles. And for us, it’s not some faraway war on the other side of the world. It’s by my home. I need to go protect my family, protect my country, protect my future."

"As soon as they call my unit, I’m in," Lahat says. "I’m going to join my brothers, the same people I served with for years. And there’s no other way for me. And for me to be here, not at home right now, it’s something that…it’s beyond miserable. For me to be here and not at home right now, not being at home with my people. To be fighting in sunny California, it’s a horrible feeling."

Lahat served for three-and-a-half years in the Israeli army as part of a paratrooper unit. His mother (intelligence) and father (special forces) are former generals. His friends, whom he served with before pursuing a career in MMA and now work in high fields, are steadying themselves back in Israel. They have all been put on warning to be ready. When the call officially comes, they will step out of their everyday lives and re-enter the war block.

Since the conflict got started, Lahat has been distracting himself in training for his fight with Siler. He says his teammates at AKA have been empathetic to what’s going on, and have helped him by "punching me as hard as they can."

"The only time I could take my mind off of that was in the gym sparring," he says. "Other than that, I am watching news or on the phone with friends and family all the time. It’s been a hard camp."


Source: http://www.mmafighting.com/2014/7/23/...to-israel-sunday-for-the-fight-beyond

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Siler is already the favorite for this match, and knowing that Lahat doesn't care if he wins or loses because he's going to fight in a war the very next day, there's no way you can take Lahat in this fight.

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something is wrong
nogueira is in the card and he still hasn't pulled out

I mean record-wise Rogerio is not nearly as washed up as his brother.
But he had to sit out quite a while and only fought 2 times in the past 3 years.
If I try to imagine the fight it seems like Anthony Johnson is just so much bigger, stronger, younger and aggressive...
I expect this to be brutal

+ Show Spoiler +

On July 24 2014 06:50 PuertoRican wrote: $500 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/join/30269...orency-black-on-ufc-on-fox-12-T-free/ $150 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/join/30318...reeroll-game-on-ufc-on-fox-12-T-free/

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[OT] dana was angry after schaub arlovski fight, he said it shouldn't even been on the main card, and now they put arlovski vs silva as a main event for ufc fn, wtf [/OT]

That was a weird as fuck staredown.

Lawler $375 at -250 I could crossbet that to get a freeroll of like $30 on Lawler or $90 on Brown. Not sure what to do with that yet.

Cummins $150 at -150 and Bermudez $147 at -147. I could get mini-freerolls on both but that is probably not worth it.

Trained with Bobby Green for awhile. Really nice and friendly guy and super entertaining. It's awful what happened to him recently. San Bernardino and Ontario are pretty rough places to live and grow up in.

Hope Bobby puts on a great performance tonight and wins lots of fans and gets some fat bonus money. Gonna be cheering for him hard.

Story for anyone who hasn't read it.

http://www.foxsports.com/ufc/story/not-without-scars-ufc-s-bobby-green-emerges-from-life-filled-with-pain-072214

im not a boxing expert but, isnt Golovkin ITD @-260 a sick line to put in parlays ?

The prelims start in 1 hour and 50 minutes.

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Here's my bets pre-live betting:

+ Show Spoiler +

http://www.foxsports.com/ufc/story/no...ges-from-life-filled-with-pain-072214

On July 26 2014 13:46 Nazgul wrote: http://www.foxsports.com/ufc/story/no...ges-from-life-filled-with-pain-072214

Look at 3 posts above yours. Same link.

My bad it's a great read regardless. Added Johnson by decision at +198.

haha polish names are killing joe's tongue

Fight Pass prelims: http://www.ufc.tv/video/lawler-vs-brown-exclusive-fight-pass-prelims

stream sucks dick, anyone have alternate streams?

On July 26 2014 15:25 milkman wrote: stream sucks dick, anyone have alternate streams?

http://ifirstrowus.eu/sport/boxing-wwe-ufc.html
http://www.stopstream.com/11-.html
http://live.drakulastream.eu/

I'm watching on Fight Pass.

is the schedule off? Or did i miss the womens straw weight fight?

On July 26 2014 15:41 milkman wrote: is the schedule off? Or did i miss the womens straw weight fight?

They switched it after the weigh-ins. Women's fight is next

Nice debut for Joanna. She just needs to work on not getting stuck against the cage. She seemed like she didn't know how to get out of that spot until round 2, when Lima was gassed.

nice fight so far from cummins

Blue corner is winning so far.

----------

Kingsbury with that BJ Penn 2014 performance...

I thought he would have been better prepared for this fight, but I guess not.

Sad to say, but Josh Thomson totally gave that fight away by not doing much. He'll know he lost when he goes back and watches the fight.

I expect Josh Thomson to retire during the post-fight press conference.

Luckily for me, Green was at plus odds the entire match. They were even offering +136 for Green right before the score cards were read.

fucking bullshit wtf was josh doing

Guida's fastball punch that he throws with his right hand is being thrown very slow when compared to in his prime.

On July 26 2014 18:21 PuertoRican wrote: Blue corner is winning so far.

2 more fights left...

Im big on Lawler, just can't see Brown winning, Lawler is much better technical striker, with a superb TDD and especially, really strong mentally, he will never quit as Erick Silva did in the last fight

On July 21 2014 19:34 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On July 21 2014 18:26 JonnyCosMo wrote: Ortega > Torre Dun fuck wit T-City If Ortega had better stand up and didn't need to win via submission, I'd agree with you. From the tape that I watched, I think Torre will win via decision if he can stop Ortega's take downs/trips, which don't seem all that great. If Torre follows the game plan provided to him by the MMA Lab, he should win, imo.

Dun

Fuck

Wit

T City

damn. i almost dont wanna see someone lose! both are great and exciting fighters which the UFC need right now!

whats wrong with lawler in the 2nd ??
he barely threw any punches, wtf

I didn't pay attention to the first 2 rounds, but Lawler won round 3.

Round 4 = Robbie won via LnP.

gtfo with the womens straw weight. some fights that need to happen will get bumped off by midget fights of men and women nobody cares about

stream just died in the fifth! FML

awesome fight, just wish this fight had 10 more rounds and Brown didnt break his hand lol

Lawler needs to win, but a rematch of these two would be great as well

I'm disappointed with Lawler's performance in this fight. He gassed a little earlier than his last 5-round fight, and even if he gassed around the same time, that still shows he didn't improve his cardio.

He barely threw any body shots, he was content with using the same strategy he used against Johny Hendricks. Anyway, I'll take Hendricks over Lawler when they fight again.

Made some nice money live betting Lawler -200 during the fight, too bad I missed the -170 in round 1. Either way, I lost a lot of dough today, mostly cuz of live betting tennis this morning...

Thomson losing cost me 5 parlays that would have paid from 3-1 to 6-1.

Good card overall.

lawler almost got knocked down at the first, that's why he "gassed" after

On July 26 2014 19:44 PuertoRican wrote: Sad to say, but Josh Thomson totally gave that fight away by not doing much. He'll know he lost when he goes back and watches the fight. I expect Josh Thomson to retire during the post-fight press conference. Luckily for me, Green was at plus odds the entire match. They were even offering +136 for Green right before the score cards were read.

He has a tendency to kinda throw fights away by fighting dumb. He did in the 2nd melendez fight. He would out strike melendez for most of the round and then just brawl a bunch and get dropped. He seems more concerned with putting on a good fight than winning sometimes.

On July 26 2014 20:40 JonnyCosMo wrote: Show nested quote + On July 21 2014 19:34 PuertoRican wrote:   On July 21 2014 18:26 JonnyCosMo wrote: Ortega > Torre Dun fuck wit T-City If Ortega had better stand up and didn't need to win via submission, I'd agree with you. From the tape that I watched, I think Torre will win via decision if he can stop Ortega's take downs/trips, which don't seem all that great. If Torre follows the game plan provided to him by the MMA Lab, he should win, imo. Dun Fuck Wit T City

Brian Ortega tested positive for drostanolone following UFC on FOX 12; suspended for 9 months and fined $2500. Ortega is linked to the same gym as another fighter who recently was flagged for drostanolone. “The Ultimate Fighter 17” veteran Kevin Casey failed a test following his first-round KO of Bubba Bush at this past month’s UFC 175 and is temporarily suspended pending a hearing.

http://mmajunkie.com/2014/08/csac-bri...-drostanolone-following-ufc-on-fox-12

Dun

Fuck

Wit

Drostanolone