UFC on FOX 11: Werdum vs. Browne

Date: Wednesday, April 19th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 14:30 LP.net / 12:30pm PST / 3:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 16:00 LP.net / 2pm PST / 5pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 19:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (FOX)

Fabricio Werdum (17-5-1) vs. Travis Browne (16-1-1) (Heavyweight title eliminator)
Miesha Tate (13-5) vs. Liz Carmouche (9-4) (Women's Bantamweight)
Donald Cerrone (22-6) vs. Edson Barboza (13-1) (Lightweight)
Brad Tavares (12-1) vs. Yoel Romero (7-1) (Middleweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Rafael dos Anjos (20-6) vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov (21-0) (Lightweight)
Thiago Alves (19-9) vs. Seth Baczynski (19-10) (Welterweight)
Jorge Masvidal (25-8) vs. Pat Healy (29-18) (Lightweight)
Estevan Payan (14-5) vs. Alex White (9-0) (Featherweight)
Caio Magalhaes (7-1) vs. Luke Zachrich (13-2) (Middleweight)
Jordan Mein (27-9) vs. Hernani Perpetuo (17-3) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Dustin Ortiz (12-3) vs. Ray Borg (6-0) (Flyweight)
Mirsad Bektic (7-0) vs. Chas Skelly (11-0) (Featherweight)
Derrick Lewis (9-2) vs. Jack May (7-0) (Heavyweight)

Other

- Estevan Payan was expected to face Sean Soriano at this event. However, Soriano was forced to pull out due to injury and was replaced by Mike Brown. In turn, Brown was forced out of the bout and was replaced by promotional newcomer Alex White.
- Santiago Ponzinibbio was expected to face Jordan Mein at this event. However, Ponzinibbio was removed from the bout and was replaced by Hernani Perpetuo.
- Caio Magalhães was expected to face Josh Samman at the event. However on April 8, Samman pulled out of the bout citing a hamstring injury and was replaced by promtional newcomer Luke Zachrich.

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First thoughts:

• Browne > Werdum
• Carmouche > Tate
• Cerrone vs. Barboza (dunno yet, leaning toward Barboza)
• Tavares > Romero
• RDA vs. Nurmagomedov (dunno yet)
• Alves > Baczynski
• Masvidal > Healy
• Payan vs. White (dunno yet)
• Magalhaes vs. Zachrich (dunno yet)
• Mein > Perpetuo
• Ortiz > Borg
• Bektic > Skelly
• Lewis > May

Werdum = good bet +200, I think it's a pickem and there's value there

I'm surprised lines on other fights aren't out yet that I can see. Gonna be the sickest card in a minute possibly.

Pretty confident in Khabib to get it done vs RDA, agree about Masvidal - great match up for him and poor Healy gonna be on the chopping block, I hope Romero ktfo of Tavares and I he think he might - sure hope so, but would be a little surprised.

My first impression was this was a really bad fight for Werdum because Brownes TDD is so good. I was looking back on some of Brownes fights and I wouldn't be surprised is Werdum out strikes him. He's very athletic and lean but he's pretty sloppy and not that great on the feet and has pretty bad defense.

Yo, PR, this is a longshot but I figure if anyone will know what I'm talking about it's you...

I recently reinstalled my computer, and forgot to save my bookmarks... Anyway, there was this website (I think I found it off BloodyElbow or Sherdog) of some MMA sportsbetting guy, real simple design (just white-black-green I think), with just his upcoming picks and his history of betting (recent % of correct picks, overall, how much money would have been made if X money was bet on each pick ETCETC). As far as I remember the site wasn't selling anything and didn't have much content aside from the stats.

Anyway, chances are you have no idea what I'm talking about but maybe you do? :D

On April 16 2014 02:58 TianYuan wrote: Yo, PR, this is a longshot but I figure if anyone will know what I'm talking about it's you... I recently reinstalled my computer, and forgot to save my bookmarks... Anyway, there was this website (I think I found it off BloodyElbow or Sherdog) of some MMA sportsbetting guy, real simple design (just white-black-green I think), with just his upcoming picks and his history of betting (recent % of correct picks, overall, how much money would have been made if X money was bet on each pick ETCETC). As far as I remember the site wasn't selling anything and didn't have much content aside from the stats. Anyway, chances are you have no idea what I'm talking about but maybe you do? :D

Nah, not sure what website you're referring to. If he has a YouTube page, I might know who it is. The only guy I remember who uses green in their YouTube picks is CSFightOdds.

Wow, pretty few Blockbuster names on that card, still I like it more than most cards.
There are not many washed up fighters with high name recognition, instead those are some of the up and coming people that could be future prospects. Hoping for good fights but I know I will watch at least a few (which hasn't been true for most UFC cards recently)!

Not gonna bet but I would suspect:

• Browne > Werdum - Hmm, Werdums stand up has still improved, ground game obv world class, I just think Browne is way too underrated and improved more lately, he is very athletic and slowly his power and stand up skillz come together in a scary way
• Carmouche > Tate - tough to tell and I will watch but don't really care
• Cerrone =. Barboza - Really believe it depends on which Cerrone shows up
• Tavares < Romero - Romero is a rough diamond, not sure if he can become a higher LvL powerhouse, but I sure hope so, his movement is between creative/great and awkward/wrestler-who-moved-over-and-needs-time
• RDA < Nurmagomedov - Loved Nurmagomedov so far and he is even more underrated than Renan Barao, I hope he hasn't hit his sealing and is showing more of his skillz. Also helps with getting more exposure for eastern european fighters!
• Alves > Baczynski - I think Alves is more or less done, he had so many injuries and is not gonna be a contender anymore, add in his other issues and you have someone who I really appreciate in the sport but I doubt he can archive much anymore.
Lost like 2-4 in past fights, granted he looked very good vs Kampmann but that fight was 2 years ago. Ring rust and being 30 now, I hope he does well but there is no strong argument for it
• Masvidal > Healy - Hope for Healy but Masvidal is strong

• Payan = White - dunno, don't care
• Magalhaes = Zachrich - same same
• Mein > Perpetuo - Not enough knowledge, just by what I know so far
• Ortiz > Borg - same same
• Bektic, Skell, Lewis,May are not on my radar

wat.. I was waiting on this to bet on Browne thinking the line was going to favour Werdum... damn oddsmakers are better every day

On April 16 2014 23:21 Baalim wrote: wat.. I was waiting on this to bet on Browne thinking the line was going to favour Werdum... damn oddsmakers are better every day

I guess people agree with you because the gap has widened since the line came out. I really don't agree, Werdum is really smart and doesn't just try to put his head down and muscle double legs so I don't see those elbows being a huge issue, which is how Brown beat Gonzaga and Barnett (not discrediting him it was super impressive just saying I don't think it will be a factor here).

The Overeem fight he should have lost, let's get real... he showed a lot of heart but Overeem gassed and stood there and ate front kicks until one put him out.... Than you have Werdum who is the best submission grappler in the world in his weightclass and has only gotten better on his feet, and has not taken too much damage in his career.

I think this fight is a pickem but I love the line for Werdum.

Carmouche @ +170 might be the best line on the card..... I just think she's gonna muscle Tate around and since KO's are literally a non-factor in women's MMA, atleast at this point, it's extremely likely to come down to takedowns and position. Miesha doesn't seem as hungry to me as Liz either, which is just kinda icing on the cake for this bet.

On April 17 2014 00:24 soberstone wrote: Carmouche @ +170 might be the best line on the card..... I just think she's gonna muscle Tate around and since KO's are literally a non-factor in women's MMA, atleast at this point, it's extremely likely to come down to takedowns and position. Miesha doesn't seem as hungry to me as Liz either, which is just kinda icing on the cake for this bet.

Yep. Carmouche is my current favorite line on the card. She is much stronger, the harder hitter, and their cardio is about the same afaik. Carmouche just needs to avoid giving up her back at all costs, and not turn into a "deer in the headlights" like she did in her last fight where she basically lost due to a ton of low leg kicks that stopped her from bull rushing in with her punches.

Tate is on her way out, she's just being kept around because of her looks + name value + weak division. If Julie Kedzie didn't have a brain fart, she would have beat Tate in Strikeforce and Tate would be on a 4-fight losing streak right now.

I was gonna go really big on Tavares, but Bookmaker gets lines so late. Tavares opened at +100 on 5dimes, now he's -160. If I can get Tavares at -140 or better, I will make a big bet on him. I'm not sure how live betting will work out between Tavares and Romero, since Romero is a slow starter, which means Tavares' line most likely won't get any better unless he gets rocked/knocked down.

On April 16 2014 03:14 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On April 16 2014 02:58 TianYuan wrote: Yo, PR, this is a longshot but I figure if anyone will know what I'm talking about it's you... I recently reinstalled my computer, and forgot to save my bookmarks... Anyway, there was this website (I think I found it off BloodyElbow or Sherdog) of some MMA sportsbetting guy, real simple design (just white-black-green I think), with just his upcoming picks and his history of betting (recent % of correct picks, overall, how much money would have been made if X money was bet on each pick ETCETC). As far as I remember the site wasn't selling anything and didn't have much content aside from the stats. Anyway, chances are you have no idea what I'm talking about but maybe you do? :D Nah, not sure what website you're referring to. If he has a YouTube page, I might know who it is. The only guy I remember who uses green in their YouTube picks is CSFightOdds.

Managed to un-lazy myself and found it in my backsup skype logs ;d

http://predictfights.com/

I hope girl on the left wins.

On April 17 2014 00:19 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On April 16 2014 23:21 Baalim wrote: wat.. I was waiting on this to bet on Browne thinking the line was going to favour Werdum... damn oddsmakers are better every day I guess people agree with you because the gap has widened since the line came out. I really don't agree, Werdum is really smart and doesn't just try to put his head down and muscle double legs so I don't see those elbows being a huge issue, which is how Brown beat Gonzaga and Barnett (not discrediting him it was super impressive just saying I don't think it will be a factor here). The Overeem fight he should have lost, let's get real... he showed a lot of heart but Overeem gassed and stood there and ate front kicks until one put him out.... Than you have Werdum who is the best submission grappler in the world in his weightclass and has only gotten better on his feet, and has not taken too much damage in his career. I think this fight is a pickem but I love the line for Werdum.

I agree, I just tought Werdum was gong to be like -160 or something, at +200 I think its a bet on Werdum, despise his great run I dont think many people have taken him to deep waters and Werdumis very durable and he can possibly grind a win.

On April 17 2014 00:48 TianYuan wrote: Show nested quote + On April 16 2014 03:14 PuertoRican wrote:   On April 16 2014 02:58 TianYuan wrote: Yo, PR, this is a longshot but I figure if anyone will know what I'm talking about it's you... I recently reinstalled my computer, and forgot to save my bookmarks... Anyway, there was this website (I think I found it off BloodyElbow or Sherdog) of some MMA sportsbetting guy, real simple design (just white-black-green I think), with just his upcoming picks and his history of betting (recent % of correct picks, overall, how much money would have been made if X money was bet on each pick ETCETC). As far as I remember the site wasn't selling anything and didn't have much content aside from the stats. Anyway, chances are you have no idea what I'm talking about but maybe you do? :D Nah, not sure what website you're referring to. If he has a YouTube page, I might know who it is. The only guy I remember who uses green in their YouTube picks is CSFightOdds. Managed to un-lazy myself and found it in my backsup skype logs ;d http://predictfights.com/

Ah, ic. I've never heard of that website before.

His next two bets are RDA > Nurmagomedov and Rockhold > Boetsch. RDA is currently +175 or so, while Rockhold is -800 at the cheapest book and -1000 at the most expensive. The website owner doesn't list a breakdown of why he's picking his fights, which is weird. And, while he has good stats, he's only picking 1 fight per card and is picking the obvious favorite (literally). The only fighter he picked at plus odds in his last 30 picks is Anthony Pettis over Benson Henderson, which was a popular pick at the time, especially since Pettis beat him before.

I can tell why he doesn't charge for his picks, as it's pointless. I could use the same strategy as him and have the same record, if not better.

I'm not really familar with the site, I just was reminded of it and dug it up. However, Iooking through the archives he seems to have more than 1 pick some of the time, and provides reasoning usually. Still, pretty tiny sample with how few fights he actually picks ;/

Example:
http://predictfights.com/josh-barnett-frank-mir-87/
http://predictfights.com/chad-mendes-clay-guida-81/

Seems in the beginning he posted his picks for more of the card, guess he got lazy.

Would anyone be interested in a few of us taking one fight each and watching extensive tape on each fighter and coming up with an analysis of the fight?

On April 17 2014 21:05 SeanBam wrote: Would anyone be interested in a few of us taking one fight each and watching extensive tape on each fighter and coming up with an analysis of the fight?

There's already a betting thread on Sherdog that does what you want to do. There's a bunch of people who offer various information for each event, and then others who just troll: http://forums.sherdog.com/forums/f2/my-ufc-fox-11-bets-post-yours-2717679/

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$1000 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/draft/2458...-game-on-ufc-on-fox-11-T-free/199905/

$500 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/draft/2474...urney-on-ufc-on-fox-11-T-free/204840/

$200 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/draft/2475...ox-11-on-ufc-on-fox-11-T-free/203041/

IMO the reason people are favoring Browne over Werdum is because:

*Better record
*Better recent opponents
*Weighs more, is taller, has slightly longer reach
*Is younger
*Is more hungry for the belt, Werdum has been around the block and probably not as passionate
*His average fight time is 5:40 versus 9:24, which obviously means he finishes fights
*Most of his wins are T/KO
*100% takedown defense

My prediction: They will exchange, Browne slowly chips away, Werdum goes in for the takedown, gets stuffed and countered, rinse and repeat and GG. 20% for werdum to finish via miracle sub or KO.

Werdum has no wrestling, as long as Browne stays out of the clinch he'll be good to go.

road to the octagon was pretty good

Fabricio Werdum's weight

UFC on FOX 11 (April 18, 2014): 232.5
UFC on Fuel TV 10 (June 7, 2013): 242
UFC 147 (June 22, 2012): 246
UFC 143 (February 3, 2012): 246

Holy shit Werdum is in way better shape than normal.

why is he 4kg lighter for this fight? seems 245ish was working fine for him

5 round fight. Also doesn't seem like he lost any muscle mass, just extra fat.

Werdums been pretty inconsistent with his shape and his cardio. Sometimes he goes 3 rounds hard and his cardio looks good ( Roy fight ) and sometimes he gasses like in the Overeem fight. So his cardio should be pretty good in this fight.

He was 238 in the Fedor fight.

Losing that fat can't be anything but a good thing.

travis browne for the win

Joe Rogan will commentate this fight correct?

On April 18 2014 18:55 Stim_Abuser wrote: 5 round fight. Also doesn't seem like he lost any muscle mass, just extra fat. Werdums been pretty inconsistent with his shape and his cardio. Sometimes he goes 3 rounds hard and his cardio looks good ( Roy fight ) and sometimes he gasses like in the Overeem fight. So his cardio should be pretty good in this fight. He was 238 in the Fedor fight. Losing that fat can't be anything but a good thing.

Yeah he is inconsistent, it proably didnt help on his Overeem fight that he was constantly tense waiting for Overeem to unload and he never managed to relax for a second tough.

Fight Network $1000 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/draft/2458...-game-on-ufc-on-fox-11-T-free/199905/

BloodElbow $500 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/draft/2474...urney-on-ufc-on-fox-11-T-free/204840/

MMA Oddsbreaker $500 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/join/24742...-500-tourney-on-ufc-on-fox-11-T-free/

Luca Fury $200 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/draft/2475...ox-11-on-ufc-on-fox-11-T-free/203041/

On April 18 2014 22:09 milkman wrote: Joe Rogan will commentate this fight correct?

Yes, him and Mike

What do you guys think about Dos Anjos +235 vs Khabib?

As well as Alvez vs Bacynski -435?

I have Bacynski and RDA. Also a flier on Bacynski via submission and RDA via 3 rd dec.

On April 19 2014 11:09 Nazgul wrote: What do you guys think about Dos Anjos +235 vs Khabib? As well as Alvez vs Bacynski -435?

Alvez should win, but I have small bets on Seth +320 and Seth by submission +1200.

I'm just unsure who will win the RDA/Khabib fight, so I have a small bet on RDA at +220. I'll post my bets when I get out of bed.

My bets pre-live betting:

+ Show Spoiler +

Potential upsets this fight:
Werdum
Healy
Carmouche

My picks that I'm willing to bet on:
Browne (not too confident)
Tate (not too confident)
Tavares
Khabib
Masvidal (not too confident)
Mein
Alves

On April 19 2014 13:52 Zadan wrote: Masvidal (not too confident)

As long as Masvidal does what he usually does, you will be surprised at how bad Healy looks.

I'm all-in on Kountermove. Wish me luck

On April 19 2014 14:21 JonnyCosMo wrote: I'm all-in on Kountermove. Wish me luck

I'm in 5 KM events. 4 of them are the free rolls, and the last one is a 1 vs. 1 KM.

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Fight Network $1000 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/draft/2458...-game-on-ufc-on-fox-11-T-free/199905/

BloodElbow $500 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/draft/2474...urney-on-ufc-on-fox-11-T-free/204840/

MMA Oddsbreaker $500 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/join/24742...-500-tourney-on-ufc-on-fox-11-T-free/

Luca Fury $200 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/draft/2475...ox-11-on-ufc-on-fox-11-T-free/203041/

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Fight Pass prelims: http://www.vipboxus.co/boxing/222998/...-pass-prelims-live-stream-online.html

Lewis landed a HELLBOW and hurt Jack May, which eventually led to a finish.

On April 19 2014 11:09 Nazgul wrote: What do you guys think about Dos Anjos +235 vs Khabib? As well as Alvez vs Bacynski -435?

I like it. I though it's gonna be a close fight. RDA should have an edge in the striking & BJJ, and Khabib an advantage in the wrestling. Khabib isn't really a hold you down top game guy though, he's very aggressive and active and lets people back up all the time so I expect there to be lot's of scrambles and RDA possibly getting the better of the striking enough to win 2 rounds.

Worst rule in the UFC. I really hate that rule.

Joe Rogan was trying to make it sound like Skelly was taking over during the last 1.5 minutes.

3-0 for Bektic, not counting the extra point.

War Bektic, that fight honestly shoulda been stopped after the illegal knee in the second

Straight Wager 04/19/14 02:18 ET
bet 39.00 to win 33.91 Result: Pending
UFC on FOX 11 - Featherweight Matchup
Chas Skelly
Mirsad Bektic 04/19/14(15:30 ET)
Mirsad Bektic -115

Edit: Wow whoever scored that a draw. You are a JOKE. thank god the other 2 got it right.

Good scrap.

lol the only stream has an "internet security" issue..

On April 19 2014 15:24 PuertoRican wrote: Joe Rogan was trying to make it sound like Skelly was taking over during the last 1.5 minutes. 3-0 for Bektic, not counting the extra point.

Most people scored the 2nd for Skelly including me and had in 9-9.

Bektic was definitely winning the 3rd and Skelly was mounting a lil bit of a comeback and he definitely could of taken the round which was exciting.

Next bet $35 on Ortiz... if Borg is great I wouldn't be shocked based on the hype, but Ortiz is really good, great wrestler, robbed against Moraga. War Ortiz.

Borg gave the fight away in round 3... Pretty sad.

Shoot it. That was a bad bet though, way too close.

Thank you Joe Rogan "we are seeing some pretty sketching scoring here tonight". Another split decision that they ultimately got right but that couldn't have been possibly scored for the loser by a drunk Stevie Wonder....

Ended up betting $50 on Dos Anjos and $50 on Healy (also +235). Never been all that into Masvidal.

Let's go Alex White! I know nothing about you but heard you were good and crafty on a podcast and Payan is really terrible and you are an underdog. Good enough rationale for a lil 1 unit play.

Shoot it.

Hit the under, but ruined my $1 hail mary parlay.

dammit, just accidentally bet against a home town hero.. oh well..

Always love watching Masvidal strike. Good movement and very slick.

Now that Healy is facing someone well rounded and not undersized, Healy looks like an amateur. Ronda Rousey literally throws harder punches than what Pat Healy is throwing in this fight.

On April 19 2014 17:41 PuertoRican wrote: Now that Healy is facing someone well rounded and not undersized, Healy looks like an amateur. Ronda Rousey literally throws harder punches than what Pat Healy is throwing in this fight.

Yah dude those punches looked like he was warming up before sparring. It was that bad, and I was actually worried the judges would fuck it up just because of "Octagan control" bs. Healy is done, I'm 100 % sure of that, and this actually makes me second guess taking Bobby Green in the Jim Miller fight. I think Healy just made him look more like a world-beater than he is.

On April 19 2014 17:31 Stim_Abuser wrote: Always love watching Masvidal strike. Good movement and very slick.

Agree but I think his performance wasn't that impressive only because I know he would have been capable of staying off the fence all together and putting on a clinic.

Healy looked pretty bad I would agree, and Masvidal didn't look too hot either Joe hyped that up way more than he should have. Ended up betting $460 on Alves -460.

My leg is hurting from watching round one. If Alves really woke up at 171 this morning I would love to see him at 155.

Great outing by both guys, Thiago looks legitimately back, not sure if he can hang with the top couple tiers anymore but i def feel better about it now.

Thiago Alves looked great tonight, especially after having not fought for 2 years and coming back to face a much taller/longer fighter.

Great scrap. Every fights been pretty awesome so far.

RDA is at +263 on Bookmaker.

On April 19 2014 18:27 PuertoRican wrote: RDA is at +263 on Bookmaker.

I'm so mad at myself. I wanted to bet Khabib so bad but the odds have just gtten worse and worse. I bet him anyway now at horrible odds (-300) but I really think he's a sure thing is this fight. We'll see, I'm stoked.

On April 19 2014 18:27 PuertoRican wrote: RDA is at +263 on Bookmaker.

Added $30 on Dos Anjos at +255. Excited to see Alves tonight I hope he fights again soon.

On April 19 2014 18:31 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On April 19 2014 18:27 PuertoRican wrote: RDA is at +263 on Bookmaker. I'm so mad at myself. I wanted to bet Khabib so bad but the odds have just gtten worse and worse. I bet him anyway now at horrible odds (-300) but I really think he's a sure thing is this fight. We'll see, I'm stoked.

Khabib is very good but I'm a fan of Dos Anjos. Great tdd, submissions and standup. I have a hard time seeing him this big of an underdog. Sick fight though.

I love Khabib. Both these guys are awesome.

I have no idea who will win between RDA/Khabib, but both guys are good and RDA shouldn't be such a big underdog.

I can't believe this dumb Romero fight is main card over this. Seriously unreal. This is a fight between two top ten guys who if anything only seem to be on their way up. Entertaining styles too.

On April 19 2014 18:35 PuertoRican wrote: I have no idea who will win between RDA/Khabib, but both guys are good and RDA shouldn't be such a big underdog.

Through rounds 1-2 he looks like a pretty big underdog. lol - khabib's wrestling is the best in lightweight, period.

On April 19 2014 18:41 Nazgul wrote: I can't believe this dumb Romero fight is main card over this. Seriously unreal. This is a fight between two top ten guys who if anything only seem to be on their way up. Entertaining styles too.

Well, now you can see why it was the main event of the prelims, and not on the main card. It's not entertaining enough, and FOX wants entertaining fights.

Dos Anjos looks incredible already happy with this bet. He arguably even won that round although I'm not sure the refs see it that way.

On April 19 2014 18:48 Nazgul wrote: Dos Anjos looks incredible already happy with this bet. He arguably even won that round although I'm not sure the refs see it that way.

Are you trolling?

That's as clear a 30-27 as there is.

On April 19 2014 18:53 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On April 19 2014 18:48 Nazgul wrote: Dos Anjos looks incredible already happy with this bet. He arguably even won that round although I'm not sure the refs see it that way. Are you trolling? That's as clear a 30-27 as there is.

First round he spent very little time on the mat, got up relatively easy, and won every striking exchange. Obviously second is a clear loss. Try not to let Joe influence you too much. Also they just finished round two kind of hard for it to be 30-27.

Agree first round was pretty close although I still gave it to Khabib.

On April 19 2014 18:55 Nazgul wrote: Show nested quote + On April 19 2014 18:53 soberstone wrote:   On April 19 2014 18:48 Nazgul wrote: Dos Anjos looks incredible already happy with this bet. He arguably even won that round although I'm not sure the refs see it that way. Are you trolling? That's as clear a 30-27 as there is. First round he spent very little time on the mat, got up relatively easy, and won every striking exchange. Obviously second is a clear loss. Try not to let Joe influence you too much.

Yah well unaminous 30-27 judges didn't hear Joe either... although the judges are awful so that doesn't prove anything, but usually unanimous 30-27's aren't very controversial. I bet if you polled everyone watched that fight very few people would have given RDA any rounds though. maybe 1 from a minority percentage.

I gave it 30-27 to Khabib. I think Khabib hurt RDA when RDA went in for a take down and ran into a small punch in round 3.

But my bad if I sounded like a dick, I think I read your post after round 2 so that's why I was like '?'

Khabib's wrestling and sick aggression and ability to close the distance is pretty ridiculous.

I don't think anyone at LW is a favorite over him. Maybe him vs pettis/melendez is close to a flip.

I doubt Pettis has fixed all the weaknesses he showed vs Guida I'm with you on that one. If Pettis and Khabib are even in odds I would definitely bet Khabib. Melendez though is an animal I don't recall seeing anyone taking him down ever and I don't really think Khabib would be able to do it over five rounds either.

Throwing 2 units on Romero cuz the odds have moved and he's one of my top 5 fav fighters. With that said, I'm betting with my heart on this one, not my head.

On April 19 2014 19:04 Nazgul wrote: I doubt Pettis has fixed all the weaknesses he showed vs Guida I'm with you on that one. If Pettis and Khabib are even in odds I would definitely bet Khabib. Melendez though is an animal I don't recall seeing anyone taking him down ever and I don't really think Khabib would be able to do it over five rounds either.

I think Melendez has a better chance to beat Khabib than Pettis. Melendez will push the pace and come forward, which is what Khabib doesn't like. Pettis is too long and thin/light to stay up on his feet for a long period of time, but I hope I'm wrong.

On April 19 2014 19:02 Stim_Abuser wrote: Khabib's wrestling and sick aggression and ability to close the distance is pretty ridiculous. I don't think anyone at LW is a favorite over him. Maybe him vs pettis/melendez is close to a flip.

I think Benson Henderson matches up well to beat him.

I think Pettis would get rag-dolled if he didn't land a huge counter-shot - problem for Khabib is Pettis is likely to land a huge counter-shot in that fight. Even then though, Khabib is so tough. I think I'd favor him over Pettis by a bit and have him a dog vs Benson by a bit.

I'd bet him pretty big vs Melendez if he was a dog.

On April 19 2014 19:04 Nazgul wrote: I doubt Pettis has fixed all the weaknesses he showed vs Guida I'm with you on that one. If Pettis and Khabib are even in odds I would definitely bet Khabib. Melendez though is an animal I don't recall seeing anyone taking him down ever and I don't really think Khabib would be able to do it over five rounds either.

Well I think Pettis has at least improved a lot. Bendo couldn't take him down in the first round. He's been training with Askren since that Guida fight.

I would expect Khabib to be able to get plenty of takedowns though. But Pettis is the best striker in the division and should be able to create lots of scrambles and do much better on the feet than RDA.

Khabib isn't like Guida in the sense that he's very aggressive on the ground and gives a lot of opportunities to scramble back up. Though he did a pretty good job keeping RDA there in rounds 2 & 3. I think Pettis on another level than RDA.

Khabib might be a favorite but I think it's close.

OMG Romero looks like a BEAST in the 1st. It is the biggest shame he's 36 man.....

On April 19 2014 19:14 Stim_Abuser wrote: Show nested quote + On April 19 2014 19:04 Nazgul wrote: I doubt Pettis has fixed all the weaknesses he showed vs Guida I'm with you on that one. If Pettis and Khabib are even in odds I would definitely bet Khabib. Melendez though is an animal I don't recall seeing anyone taking him down ever and I don't really think Khabib would be able to do it over five rounds either. Well I think Pettis has at least improved a lot. Bendo couldn't take him down in the first round. He's been training with Askren since that Guida fight. I would expect Khabib to be able to get plenty of takedowns though. But Pettis is the best striker in the division and should be able to create lots of scrambles and do much better on the feet than RDA. Khabib isn't like Guida in the sense that he's very aggressive on the ground and gives a lot of opportunities to scramble back up. Though he did a pretty good job keeping RDA there in rounds 2 & 3. I think Pettis on another level than RDA. Khabib might be a favorite but I think it's close.

Yea pretty much my thinking. Clearly Guida and Khabib are not the same fighters, but some weaknesses against both styles carry over and they're not entirely gone for Pettis. If even the smallest bit of them remains it seems Khabib will be able to get him to the mat. Khabib just has a great skillset to fight Pettis although it would not be an easy fight by any means. I really think Melendez would be a bad matchup stylistically for him.

This is the most wrestling Romero has used in his Strikeforce and UFC fights, and Tavares usually has good TDD.

Romero finally showing the wrestling we've always expected from him. Good performance.

Feed TRT-less Belfort to Romero. Please!!! I know Vitor would likely knock him out but it would be so fucking dope if Romero just demolished him

soldier of god lol

Rogan is saying some ridiculous shit tonight.

I like Romero but he was handily getting beat in his last fight down 2 rounds before his opponent gassed. Tavares isn't even top 15. Romero vs Weidman? Wut?

Romero is a huge dog against anyone in the top 5. And that's coming from someone who's been on the hype train since he joined strikeforce.

On April 19 2014 19:44 Stim_Abuser wrote: Rogan is saying some ridiculous shit tonight. I like Romero but he was handily getting beat in his last fight before his opponent gassed. Tavares isn't even top 15. Romero vs Weidman? Wut? Romero is a huge dog against anyone in the top 5. And that's coming from someone who's been on the hype train since he joined strikeforce.

Tavares was #12. Romero is legit and I think they should put him vs Kennedy, a legit top 10 fight.

YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEE
EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

LOL!!!!!!! WTF - Where's your chin Edson, Cerrone just flash ko'ed him with a jab! What a great finish after, so sick.

That just goes to show you how important chin is.

Edson hit Cerrone with massive, massive bombs and Cerrone was fine. Cerrone hits him with a jab and game over.

woooow. chinny as all hell. saw it in the castillo fight when he got rocked, didn't think it was that bad. Glad I finally bet the cowboy after doubting him for soo long.

On April 19 2014 19:47 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On April 19 2014 19:44 Stim_Abuser wrote: Rogan is saying some ridiculous shit tonight. I like Romero but he was handily getting beat in his last fight before his opponent gassed. Tavares isn't even top 15. Romero vs Weidman? Wut? Romero is a huge dog against anyone in the top 5. And that's coming from someone who's been on the hype train since he joined strikeforce. Tavares was #12. Romero is legit and I think they should put him vs Kennedy, a legit top 10 fight.

He might be #12 in UFC only rankings, but not overall middleweights. No chance.

For the majority of that fight I was regretting not betting Barboza he kind of looked like a class above. I love Cerrone though glad for him that he won. I wonder how much of that knockdown was balance and how much was being hurt.

Edit: Just saw the slowmotion replay seemed like he was quite hurt.

On April 19 2014 19:55 Stim_Abuser wrote: Show nested quote + On April 19 2014 19:47 soberstone wrote:   On April 19 2014 19:44 Stim_Abuser wrote: Rogan is saying some ridiculous shit tonight. I like Romero but he was handily getting beat in his last fight before his opponent gassed. Tavares isn't even top 15. Romero vs Weidman? Wut? Romero is a huge dog against anyone in the top 5. And that's coming from someone who's been on the hype train since he joined strikeforce. Tavares was #12. Romero is legit and I think they should put him vs Kennedy, a legit top 10 fight. He might be #12 in UFC only rankings, but not overall middleweights. No chance.

The UFC rankings are just a compilation of all the major media sources. I mean I agree it's stupid but else can we go on?... but hey, if you rank Tavares outside of the top 15 more power to you, I'd probably agree.

On April 19 2014 19:57 Nazgul wrote: For the majority of that fight I was regretting not betting Barboza he kind of looked like a class above. I love Cerrone though glad for him that he won. I wonder how much of that knockdown was balance and how much was being hurt.

Didn't bet on the fight because I had a last minute instinct to go with Barboza, looked at the odds, and he had become a -170 favorite. Honestly though, I thought he was gonna win.

Herb Dean refs, early stoppage incoming,

I have carmouche dec. and meisha +480 after 2nd round. Bookin a win!!

Such a joke. The crowd was so pro Tate, knew this would happen after round 3.

that decision made 0 sense to me, I should have put my whole roll on Meisha if that was an outcome that the 3 judges saw,

On April 19 2014 20:27 SeanBam wrote: I have carmouche dec. and meisha +480 after 2nd round. Bookin a win!!

Tate +480 after round two seems absurd. GJ on that.

I dunno I had a big bet on Carmouche but I scored it for Tate.... I was hoping for a split d win tho. I know Carmouche had more top time in rd 2 but Miesha had a close sub and landed the better (not by much) strikes. Well, if Verdum wins I'm up 30 units, if he loses I'm even. War Werdum!~

Naz I put it down in case meisha caught her in a sub in the 3rd. Not because of a decision win. If I knew the judges gave a round to Meisha I literally would have put 1/4 of my roll on meisha. If we are going by rounds how is it not Rd. 1 Liz Rd 2. Liz Rd 3. Meisha. If they said it was a draw, I would have accepted that rd 3 could have been 10-8 Meisha

On April 19 2014 20:30 Nazgul wrote: Show nested quote + On April 19 2014 20:27 SeanBam wrote: I have carmouche dec. and meisha +480 after 2nd round. Bookin a win!! Tate +480 after round two seems absurd. GJ on that.

Yah I was thinking the same thing. Insanely good bet.

10-9 the doom.

Werdum such fun to watch, much wow :D

werdum aka heavy weight ninja.. another bad bet on a favourite fml

Holy shit trooldoom might be my favorite fighter ever. I love it.

Werdum owning Browne hard!

hope Werdum doesnt get knocked out, Browne still dangerous
should've live bet Browne before the 4

Can't wait for trollface afterwards

Shoot that shit!

Yay can't stand Travis "illegal elbow" Browne

there it was!

Werdum looked fantastic during weigh-ins and in the fight! imo, his striking hasn't looked this good in awhile, so it was nice to see him own shit up like he did. He was actually at even money in round 2.

----------

T Browne +1015 $5
T Browne +462 $15
F Werdum +100 $15
Over 2.5 +155 $20
F Werdum +180 $10
FABRICIO WERDUM +170 $5

After all those bets today, I ended up with $32 profit from UFC, which puts me back to where I was yesterday before I lost a bet on Bellator. I still have a nice sized bet on Bernard Hopkins at -215, which starts in 1 or 1.5 hours from now on Showtime.

Considering how much I bet today, I'm pretty upset with myself. Hopefully Hopkins does his thing.

All told up $300 today. Only bet I lost was fucking Carmouche, and that was a contested decision.


Straight Wager 04/19/14 20:03 ET
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bet 25.00 to win 32.50 (paid 57.50) Result: Wager Won
UFC on FOX 11 - Middleweight Matchup
Brad Tavares 0
Yoel Romero 1 04/19/14(20:20 ET)
Yoel Romero +130

2) BET ID=439127281
Straight Wager 04/19/14 18:58 ET
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bet 75.00 to win 24.19 (paid 99.19) Result: Wager Won
UFC on FOX 11 - Lightweight Matchup
Khabib Nurmagomedov 1
Rafael dos Anjos 0 04/19/14(19:33 ET)
Khabib Nurmagomedov -310

3) BET ID=439109222
Straight Wager 04/19/14 15:47 ET
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bet 20.00 to win 8.51 (paid 28.51) Result: Wager Won
UFC on FOX 11 - Flyweight Matchup
Dustin Ortiz 1
Ray Borg 0 04/19/14(16:30 ET)
Dustin Ortiz -235

4) BET ID=439065807
Straight Wager 04/19/14 03:00 ET
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bet 50.00 to win 11.76 (paid 61.76) Result: Wager Won
UFC on FOX 11 - Welterweight Matchup
Thiago Alves 1
Seth Baczynski 0 04/19/14(19:00 ET)
Thiago Alves -425

5) BET ID=439065732
Straight Wager 04/19/14 02:55 ET
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bet 50.00 to win 22.73 (paid 72.73) Result: Wager Won
UFC on FOX 11 - Lightweight Matchup
Jorge Masvidal 1
Pat Healy 0 04/19/14(18:30 ET)
Jorge Masvidal -220

6) BET ID=439065554
Straight Wager 04/19/14 02:43 ET
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bet 10.00 to win 12.00 (paid 22.00) Result: Wager Won
UFC on FOX 11 - Featherweight Matchup
Estevan Payan 0
Alex White 1 04/19/14(18:00 ET)
Alex White +120

7) BET ID=439065230
Straight Wager 04/19/14 02:27 ET
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bet 25.00 to win 10.00 (paid 35.00) Result: Wager Won
UFC on FOX 11 - Flyweight Matchup
Dustin Ortiz 1
Ray Borg 0 04/19/14(16:30 ET)
Dustin Ortiz -250

8) BET ID=439065073
Straight Wager 04/19/14 02:18 ET
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bet 39.00 to win 33.91 (paid 72.91) Result: Wager Won
UFC on FOX 11 - Featherweight Matchup
Chas Skelly 0
Mirsad Bektic 1 04/19/14(16:10 ET)
Mirsad Bektic -115

9) BET ID=439062628
Straight Wager 04/19/14 00:07 ET
bet 100.00 to win 180.00 Result: Wager Lost
UFC on FOX 11 - Bantamweight Matchup
Miesha Tate 1
Liz Carmouche 0 04/19/14(21:20 ET)
Liz Carmouche +180

10) BET ID=439062627
Straight Wager 04/19/14 00:07 ET
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bet 100.00 to win 190.00 (paid 290.00) Result: Wager Won
UFC on FOX 11 - Heavyweight Matchup
Travis Browne 0
Fabricio Werdum 1 04/19/14(21:50 ET)
Fabricio Werdum +190

Dana shitting on Werdum in the post fight presser.

Fuck I'm tired of him.

B-Hop baby~~~

booom werdum puts me even for the night

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 19 2014 19:57 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On April 19 2014 19:55 Stim_Abuser wrote:   On April 19 2014 19:47 soberstone wrote:   On April 19 2014 19:44 Stim_Abuser wrote: Rogan is saying some ridiculous shit tonight. I like Romero but he was handily getting beat in his last fight before his opponent gassed. Tavares isn't even top 15. Romero vs Weidman? Wut? Romero is a huge dog against anyone in the top 5. And that's coming from someone who's been on the hype train since he joined strikeforce. Tavares was #12. Romero is legit and I think they should put him vs Kennedy, a legit top 10 fight. He might be #12 in UFC only rankings, but not overall middleweights. No chance. The UFC rankings are just a compilation of all the major media sources. I mean I agree it's stupid but else can we go on?... but hey, if you rank Tavares outside of the top 15 more power to you, I'd probably agree.

The UFC rankings ignore all other promotions tho.... dont they?

Also, Werdum might just have become my favorite HW fighter after this. I loooooooved the way he moved and his sense of distance.

Having absolutely zero fear of Browne's ground game allowed Werdum to get all up in his business standing, throwing those kicks at will almost daring to be taken down.