PuertoRican   United States. Apr 13 2014 15:10. Posts 13049
Date: Wednesday, April 16th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 14:15 LP.net / 12:15pm PST / 3:15pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 16:00 LP.net / 2pm PST / 5pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 18:00 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)
- Steve Bosse was expected to make his UFC debut against Ryan Jimmo at this event. However, Bosse was forced to pull out of the bout citing an injury. He was replaced by UFC newcomer Sean O'Connell.
- A bantamweight bout between Alex Caceres and Erik Perez was announced for this card in February 2014, but was later cancelled when Caceres suffered an injury in March.
- Shayna Baszler was originally scheduled to make her UFC debut on this card against Sarah Kaufman. However, she had to pull out of the bout due to injury and was replaced by Amanda Nunes. Five days later, Nunes also pulled out of the bout with a thumb injury. Kaufman will now face Leslie Smith in a rematch from their bout at Invicta FC 5: Penne vs. Waterson which ended in a controversial split decision.
- Evan Dunham was expected to face Mark Bocek at the event. However, Dunham pulled out of the bout in the week leading up to the event with an undiscosed injury. Bocek will now face UFC newcomer Mike De La Torre at the event.
Rekrul is a newb
Last edit: 16/04/2014 04:09
3
PuertoRican   United States. Apr 13 2014 15:20. Posts 13049
First thoughts:
• Bisping > Kennedy
• Cote > Noke (Cote is Canada's second favorite fighter, and Noke hasn't fought since September 2012)
• Westcott vs. Theodorou (TUF contestants, no idea)
• Laprise vs. Mercier (TUF contestants, no idea)
• Poirier > Corassani (dunno why Poirier is even fighting this guy)
• Stout > Noons (Stout has actually improved his skill set over the past year or so, while Noons is still a boxer. Stout is the hometown fighter)
• Kaufman vs. Smith (undecided. Smith is taking this fight on less than 1 weeks notice, but she put up a good fight against Kaufman before. Kaufman is the hometown fighter here)
• Jimmo > O'Connell (O'Connell is a late replacement fight with 2 weeks notice or so)
• Roop vs. Kimura (undecided, but I'm leaning towards Roop is Kimura gets overrated by the bookies again)
• Bocek > Torre (Torre is a late replacement fight with 1 weeks notice or so)
• Taleb vs. Grujic (TUF contestants, no idea)
• Walsh vs. Indich (TUF contestants, no idea)
• Gagnon > Gorman
Daut   United States. Apr 13 2014 16:21. Posts 8955
i thought bisping > kennedy too in a 5 rounder due to the trajectory of the chael fight as the 3rd round closed, but a guy i respect a lot is convinced kennedy should be the clear favorite. interesting fight and wanna hear some other thoughts
NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut
3
PuertoRican   United States. Apr 13 2014 17:02. Posts 13049
On April 13 2014 15:21 Daut wrote:
i thought bisping > kennedy too in a 5 rounder due to the trajectory of the chael fight as the 3rd round closed, but a guy i respect a lot is convinced kennedy should be the clear favorite. interesting fight and wanna hear some other thoughts
Well, I'm not going to try to persuade you, all I can say is to watch the last 5 fights from both guys, pay attention to their own skill sets/cardio/movement/TD/TDD/striking, and pay attention to who their opponents are and what type of skill set their opponents possess.
The great thing about this card is, we'll be able to live bet 9 out of the 13 fights.
Bisping - returning from injury (detached retina), ring rust 354 days
Kennedy - fought Natal with torn quad
Cote - ring rust 396 days
Noke - returning from shoulder injury 2012, ring rust 571 days
Westcott - fought with knee and neck injuries
Corassani - returning from broken nose in 5 places
Smith - UFC debut, short notice in for Shayna Baszler (4 days)
Jimmo - returning from rolled ankle
O’Connell - UFC debut, short notice in for Steve Bossé (1 month)
Roop - returning from TKO loss
Bocek - returning from undisclosed injury, ring rust 515 days
Torre - UFC debut, short notice in for Evan Dunham (4 days)
Gorman - UFC debut, returning from calf injury, ring rust 511 days
PuertoRican   United States. Apr 14 2014 11:26. Posts 13049
Considering Kennedy went 5 rounds with Rockhold and Jacare, I might just take Kennedy at +165 or better, and then live bet Bisping after rounds 1, 2, or 3, since I assume Kennedy will win at least one of those rounds.
Kennedy vs. Jacare: Jacare won via decision (48-47, 49-46, 48–47)
Kennedy vs. Rockhold: Rockhold won via decision (49–46, 49–46, 49–46)
I'm not blind to Bisping's fighting style, TDD, cardio, etc. But he is returning to the UFC after having been away for 1 year due to an eye injury. Since Bisping can't KO Kennedy, I think it's best to take the guy with more ways to win at plus-odds, and then live bet Bisping when you see a good spot.
----------
I keep going back and forth on how to bet this fight. My final decision is that I will wait until fight-day to make my pick. I want to see which way the lines shift.
Rekrul is a newb
Last edit: 14/04/2014 21:00
3
PuertoRican   United States. Apr 14 2014 20:38. Posts 13049
The Sam Stout-KJ Noons fight on Wednesday's UFC show will be contested at welterweight instead of original 155 designation.
"The lightweight bout originally scheduled between Sam Stout and KJ Noons for UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Kennedy has been changed to a welterweight contest. The fighters approached the UFC to request the change in weight class, and it was subsequently approved by both the UFC and the Quebec athletic commission."
----------
Sounds like one guy couldn't make weight for whatever reason, and the other guy agreed to still take the fight, but at welterweight instead. One guy MIGHT be sick or injured, or else changing the weight class doesn't make sense on short notice.
If one guy couldn't fight, neither guy would get paid their show-money. The only way either guy would get their show money is if one of the guys got sick/injured the day before the weigh-ins, or after the weigh-ins. A fight would usually be cancelled altogether or moved to a later date when there's 2-3 days notice.
Basically, this was the best way for one or both fighters to not get in trouble, and still get to fight. They'll get their show-money, win-money, and most likely FOTN bonus.
(Just my opinion, not 100% facts)
Rekrul is a newb
3
PuertoRican   United States. Apr 15 2014 20:28. Posts 13049
Rekrul is a newb
Last edit: 15/04/2014 21:57
1
Stim_Abuser   United States. Apr 15 2014 20:43. Posts 7499
On April 13 2014 15:21 Daut wrote:
i thought bisping > kennedy too in a 5 rounder due to the trajectory of the chael fight as the 3rd round closed, but a guy i respect a lot is convinced kennedy should be the clear favorite. interesting fight and wanna hear some other thoughts
Is it the brown belt wrestler? that dude has made a lot of sick calls iirc.
Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete
1
Stim_Abuser   United States. Apr 15 2014 20:48. Posts 7499
On April 14 2014 10:26 PuertoRican wrote:
Considering Kennedy went 5 rounds with Rockhold and Jacare, I might just take Kennedy at +165 or better, and then live bet Bisping after rounds 1, 2, or 3, since I assume Kennedy will win at least one of those rounds.
Kennedy vs. Jacare: Jacare won via decision (48-47, 49-46, 48–47)
Kennedy vs. Rockhold: Rockhold won via decision (49–46, 49–46, 49–46)
I'm not blind to Bisping's fighting style, TDD, cardio, etc. But he is returning to the UFC after having been away for 1 year due to an eye injury. Since Bisping can't KO Kennedy, I think it's best to take the guy with more ways to win at plus-odds, and then live bet Bisping when you see a good spot.
----------
I keep going back and forth on how to bet this fight. My final decision is that I will wait until fight-day to make my pick. I want to see which way the lines shift.
Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete
3
PuertoRican   United States. Apr 15 2014 21:57. Posts 13049
On April 15 2014 19:28 PuertoRican wrote:
30:25 of the video is where they show Bisping and his eye. I didn't know it still looked like that. I wonder if he has taken many shots to the face in sparring, or if he told his guys to not hit him in the face as much so his eye can continue to heal.
Rekrul is a newb
4
JonnyCosMo   United States. Apr 15 2014 23:03. Posts 7292
Kennedy should destroy Bisbing
Everyone needs to see that you are king of the castle - PoorUser
3
PuertoRican   United States. Apr 15 2014 23:56. Posts 13049
On April 15 2014 22:03 JonnyCosMo wrote:
Kennedy should destroy Bisbing
Put your headphones on.
Also, thinking Kennedy will destroy Bisping is kind of a reach. I keep thinking something bad will happen to Bisping's eye at some point, still not sure how to bet the fight, so I'll wait till tomorrow.
Rekrul is a newb
1
soberstone   United States. Apr 16 2014 00:29. Posts 2662
Real value on Kennedy @ +180 on Sportbet. How can Bisping be favored more than slightly?
I also think Noons is a value @ a pickem against Stout, sucks cuz I like Stout way better. I dont know why Stout agreed to fight @ WW. Clearly favors Noons and the odds didn't change much.
I don't know shit about any of the TUF guys.
3
PuertoRican   United States. Apr 16 2014 00:55. Posts 13049
Added 2 units on Bisping/Kennedy u4½ at +210. I used my Bookmaker FreePlay money on it, so not a big loss either way.
Middle Easy tweeted this out (and after fact-checking, it's 100% true), Michael Bisping, perennial top 10 MW, has 0 wins against active UFC fighters. Dan Miller is the closest thing, as he fought last March (at welterweight, and lost), and Bisping beat Miller in 2010.
Noke ML
Jimmo / O'Connel over 2.5 (my biggest bet)
Kaufman via Dec.
Bocek ITD.(2nd biggest play)
Bocek, Poirier, Jimmo Kaufman / Smith Over 2.5 for a parlay at -110.
Poirier ITD is -200.. I'm not really sure about this seems pretty steep. i think Poirier wins this easily but i don't know if I'm willing to pay that price.
3
PuertoRican   United States. Apr 16 2014 14:58. Posts 13049
I think Gagnon relies a little too much on his guillotine attempts. However, I was pleasantly surprised by his striking and offensive / defensive takedowns.
Rd 1 - 10-9 Walsh Walsh 5/6 or so on TD's. Unable to hold Indich down at all though. Indich had some good chances with guillotine attempts from full guard.
Walsh comes out and swarms Indich with a nice flurry and traps him against the cage. Walsh throughout the round chooses to stand up vs Indich with great success obviously showing he is the faster of the two fighters, tagging Indich often. Finishes with hard shots on the chin of Indich. Takeway: Walsh is the faster striker and better wrestler, Indich is incredibly durable taking and eating hard shots. 20-18 walsh
30-27 Walsh more of the same for Rd.3 Indich needs to drop down to 155. Couldn't handle the bigger Walsh strength was constantly against the fence eating shots in the clinch or getting taken down briefly.
3
PuertoRican   United States. Apr 16 2014 16:09. Posts 13049
On April 16 2014 14:49 SeanBam wrote:
Want the PBP?
wayyy to close of a round. Torre got caught early with a right and stayed on his feet. Torre take down defense is awesome. And he's faster on the feet. I'm nervous.
Well Bocek toughed it out with experience in the 3rd round. I'm quite impressed with Torre. I lost one of the biggest bets I've made tonight Bocek ITD -131. However, I had Bocek in a bunch of parlays. So it eases the pain a bit.
3
PuertoRican   United States. Apr 16 2014 17:26. Posts 13049
wooow there goes my over 2.5... holy shit im getting crushed on my straight bets,
3
PuertoRican   United States. Apr 16 2014 17:57. Posts 13049
On April 16 2014 16:45 SeanBam wrote:
wooow there goes my over 2.5... holy shit im getting crushed on my straight bets,
Don't trip. The 5 fights before that went to a decision, and Jimmo is known for decision fights. However, Jimmo has been way more aggressive in all of his UFC fights when compared to his fights in the MFC.
Bookmaker just opened up live betting, so I'll be doing that now.
Kaufman cruising at this point. I opted to play the over and kaufman via dec small. I thought Smith would have contested Kaufman more. I'm upset I didn't bet more on Kaufman
PuertoRican   United States. Apr 16 2014 18:31. Posts 13049
On April 16 2014 17:27 SeanBam wrote:
PuertoRican do you have a lean on Stout / Noons?
I have $20 on Stout at +110 before the fight starts, and will live bet the rest.
Noons hasn't improved over the years, and his boxing doesn't look as slick as it used to. Noons was going to retire from MMA if he lost his last fight, but he won it, so that's why he's still fighting. Stout can attack with his hands + kicks + take downs + has hometown advantage.
Also, just like the TV announcer just said, Canadians are 5-0 on tonights card thus far.
Rekrul is a newb
Last edit: 16/04/2014 18:33
3
PuertoRican   United States. Apr 16 2014 18:35. Posts 13049
Well fuck, that was the least expected outcome for this fight... Everyone thought this would go the distance 99% of the time.
Edit: I didn't make many bets on this card, cuz I mainly focused on live betting the non-Fight Pass matches. There hasn't been much to live bet as of yet.
I'm thinking about throwing a flier on corassani. I think the odds are ridiculous and everyone put poirier in as a parlay fodder. I don't know where I cap Corassani though. But at +700 you never know. I'm trying to catch myself into thinking is this a good bet, or are you just chasing...
3
PuertoRican   United States. Apr 16 2014 18:54. Posts 13049
If my guesstimate is correct, Poirier won't finish this fight in the first 2 rounds, unless he can easily get Corassani's back.
You might want to take a stab at that juicy over then
3
PuertoRican   United States. Apr 16 2014 18:58. Posts 13049
On April 16 2014 17:49 SeanBam wrote:
I'm thinking about throwing a flier on corassani. I think the odds are ridiculous and everyone put poirier in as a parlay fodder. I don't know where I cap Corassani though. But at +700 you never know. I'm trying to catch myself into thinking is this a good bet, or are you just chasing...
Are you asking me if you should bet Corassani? I only have a small bet on him because his odds (aka to gamble), which I clearly stated in my post. Poirier should win this fight most of the time.
On April 16 2014 17:56 SeanBam wrote:
You might want to take a stab at that juicy over then
I do have a bet on the Over as well, it's listed in my post.
----------
To be perfectly clear, I don't have a strong feeling on any of the remaining fights. The remaining bets I listed above are only because I want to gamble and/or see value in the plus odds.
I will focus on live bets for the remaining fights, which is where most my money goes.
No I wasn't asking. I'm trying to catch myself to see if I'm chasing. Oh missed the over 2.5 bet. GL man~ I think I'm going to stay away from the fight and just enjoy Corassani getting beat up a bit. I like the over on the OAM vs Laprise fight though.
1
soberstone   United States. Apr 16 2014 19:04. Posts 2662
Throwing a flyer on Corrasani @ +800... up good so far on Roop and Noons, anyone have any strong feelings on the TUF guys? I didn't watch the show and I haven't seen Noke's fights.... def don't think Cote is a world beater though.
3
PuertoRican   United States. Apr 16 2014 19:07. Posts 13049
On April 16 2014 18:04 soberstone wrote:
Throwing a flyer on Corrasani @ +800... up good so far on Roop and Noons, anyone have any strong feelings on the TUF guys? I didn't watch the show and I haven't seen Noke's fights.... def don't think Cote is a world beater though.
None of us have any strong leans for the rest of the fights.
I finally came to the conclusion that Bisping would be my pick, but his eye looked terrible in the promo video he did for this fight, and I'm not sure how well he'll fight with it. Hopefully he comes out with a lot of aggression like he did against other people who talked shit to him in the past.
On April 16 2014 18:04 soberstone wrote:
Throwing a flyer on Corrasani @ +800... up good so far on Roop and Noons, anyone have any strong feelings on the TUF guys? I didn't watch the show and I haven't seen Noke's fights.... def don't think Cote is a world beater though.
None of us have any strong leans for the rest of the fights.
I finally came to the conclusion that Bisping would be my pick, but his eye looked terrible in the promo video he did for this fight, and I'm not sure how well he'll fight with it. Hopefully he comes out with a lot of aggression like he did against other people who talked shit to him in the past.
Yah I feel pretty strongly that he shouldn't be a 2-1 fav vs Kennedy right now but we'll see :D
We all can't complain even though our flyers on Corassani flopped.... we came close lol, what a fucking fight.... Poirier messed up that Peruvian Neck Tie or it woulda been lights out in the first.
4
Daut   United States. Apr 16 2014 19:23. Posts 8955
On April 16 2014 18:19 SeanBam wrote:
Hit the under 2.5 at +110 in between rounds.
good bet. i was on a few minutes delay due to running out but was clear at about the 4 minute mark that despite akira winning up to that point that poirier would finish him
NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut
I couldn't pull the trigger either way on the lb. I think Leprise takes it and deserves it. OAM you need to not drop to your knees and show the judges you are hurt or exhausted in a split decision fight.
1
soberstone   United States. Apr 16 2014 20:20. Posts 2662
On April 16 2014 18:58 SeanBam wrote:
I couldn't pull the trigger either way on the lb. I think Leprise takes it and deserves it. OAM you need to not drop to your knees and show the judges you are hurt or exhausted in a split decision fight.
That would have been a pretty awful robbery, I had it 30-27, he got outstruck every round and did no damage, near sub, or even top position with the TDs
1
soberstone   United States. Apr 16 2014 20:32. Posts 2662
Jesus Elias, can you learn a submission and put this guy out of his misery? Oh, there goes the ref right as I'm typing this.
Everyone needs to see that you are king of the castle - PoorUser
3
PuertoRican   United States. Apr 16 2014 21:21. Posts 13049
On April 16 2014 20:18 SeanBam wrote:
verry nice. Where did you get -130 and -150 after Rd 1?
I switched to Bookmaker a month ago, cuz of the "real" live betting they have. You can live bet in the middle of a round on Bookmaker, while on 5dimes, you can only bet after each round is over.
I got Cote at -130 and -150 in the middle of round 2.
Jeez I'm going to look into that. Those are some awesome odds. I was actually surprised two judges had it 29-28 in Canada. I figured 2/3 would have it 20-18 going into the third.
3
PuertoRican   United States. Apr 16 2014 21:24. Posts 13049
The only guy at #1 luckboxed with his pick on Theodoru. Many people thought he'd win via decision, instead, his opponent came out and blew his load in round 1 and was a walking target afterward.
On April 16 2014 20:23 SeanBam wrote:
Jeez I'm going to look into that. Those are some awesome odds. I was actually surprised two judges had it 29-28 in Canada. I figured 2/3 would have it 20-18 going into the third.
Yeah, live betting is the only reason I switched to Bookmaker. 5dimes owns Bookmaker in every other facet.
Also, Bookmaker had Cote at -130 in round 2 cuz they probably assumed the knee to his head did more damage than it actually did. They were still offering -150 after he got the take down.
Rekrul is a newb
Last edit: 16/04/2014 21:25
1
soberstone   United States. Apr 16 2014 21:24. Posts 2662
On April 16 2014 20:18 SeanBam wrote:
verry nice. Where did you get -130 and -150 after Rd 1?
I switched to Bookmaker a month ago, cuz of the "real" live betting they have. You can live bet in the middle of a round on Bookmaker, while on 5dimes, you can only bet after each round is over.
I got Cote at -130 and -150 in the middle of round 2.
In the middle of the rd? That's sick, doubt you can even do that in Vegas.
1
soberstone   United States. Apr 16 2014 21:25. Posts 2662
The only guy at #1 luckboxed with his pick on Theodoru. Many people thought he'd win via decision, instead, his opponent came out and blew his load in round 1 and was a walking target afterward.
He def shot his load, terrible fight IQ, but I still have my doubts he'd have hung for 3 and gotten a decision.
3
PuertoRican   United States. Apr 16 2014 21:40. Posts 13049
longple: ur missing the point! this is an attempt to get away from the bumhuntmentality!
Last edit: 16/04/2014 21:57
1
Stim_Abuser   United States. Apr 16 2014 22:02. Posts 7499
Wow how much of this is Kennedy looking great on the ground and Mike not being himself after the eye injury and layoff?
Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete
3
PuertoRican   United States. Apr 16 2014 22:09. Posts 13049
On April 16 2014 21:02 Stim_Abuser wrote:
Wow how much of this is Kennedy looking great on the ground and Mike not being himself after the eye injury and layoff?
Kennedy is known as a good Lay n Prayer. Bisping does look a little off, but it's hard to say what is what. Either way, Kennedy is winning.
Rekrul is a newb
1
soberstone   United States. Apr 16 2014 22:15. Posts 2662
Kennedy won, not impressive, Bisping not himself might be declining, shoot that shit.
1
soberstone   United States. Apr 16 2014 22:15. Posts 2662
If they gift Bping a decision here I'll go kill Levine myself for that gift standup lol
3
PuertoRican   United States. Apr 16 2014 22:19. Posts 13049
Kennedy clearly won, but that one judge giving it 50-45 to Kennedy is pretty bad. Too bad Bisping couldn't stop the LnP from Kennedy, and too bad Kennedy's striking sucks or else he would have been able to get the finish.
Rekrul is a newb
4
JonnyCosMo   United States. Apr 16 2014 22:21. Posts 7292
Well thank God for live betting tonight. Lost 3 / 3 big bets. Lost my two parlays with Stout getting KTFO. And ended up down 1.1 units. I'm as happy right now as if I had won 10 units