UFC FN 37: Gustafsson vs. Manuwa

Date: Saturday, March 8th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 11:55 LP.net / 9:55am PST / 12:55pm EST
Main Card Time (UFC Fight Pass): 14:00 LP.net / 12pm PST / 3pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Alexander Gustafsson (15-2) vs. Jimi Manuwa (14-0) (Light Heavyweight)
Michael Johnson (14-8) vs. Melvin Guillard (31-12-2) (Lightweight)
Brad Pickett (23-8) vs. Neil Seery (13-9) (Flyweight)
Gunnar Nelson (11-0-1) vs. Omari Akhmedov (12-1) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Cyrille Diabate (19-9-1) vs. Ilir Latifi (7-3) (Light Heavyweight)
Luke Barnatt (7-0) vs. Mats Nilsson (11-2-1) (Middleweight)
Brad Scott (9-2) vs. Claudio Henrique da Silva (9-1) (Middleweight)
Igor Araujo (24-6) vs. Danny Mitchell (14-4-1) (Welterweight)
Phil Harris (22-11) vs. Louis Gaudinot (6-3) (Flyweight)

Other

- Ross Pearson was expected to face Melvin Guillard in a rematch at the event. However, Pearson pulled out of the bout citing a knee injury and was replaced by Michael Johnson.
- Brad Pickett was expected to make his Flyweight debut against Ian McCall on this card. However, on February 13, it was announced that McCall had pulled out of the bout and was replaced by promotional newcomer Neil Seery.
- Davey Grant vs. Roland Delorme was cancelled after Grant tore his meniscus sometime after the weigh-in. Both fighters were awarded their show-money.

First thoughts:

• Gustafsson > Manuwa (I'll bet betting Manuwa)
• Johnson > Guillard
• Pickett > Seery
• Nelson > Akhmedov
• Latifi > Diabate
• Barnatt > Nilsson
• Scott vs. da Silva (dunno)
• Grant > Delorme
• Araujo vs. Mitchell (dunno)
• Gaudinot > Harris

manuwa is a really good striker and has good top position GNP, but terrible conditioning and has never fought anyone. 5 round fight i think gus finishes him a lot.

Super excited for this card, been waiting to see gunnar for a long time.

No idea why People pick Johnson over Guillard? What am I missing? Sure it's a somewhat even fight but Guillard seems really hard to win over standing unless you're Cowboy or better and Johnson just straight up isn't.

On March 04 2014 23:15 Daut wrote: manuwa is a really good striker and has good top position GNP, but terrible conditioning and has never fought anyone. 5 round fight i think gus finishes him a lot.

I have a whole bunch of random bets including straight bets and parlays that needs Gus to finish Manuwa by sup, preferably in round 3 or later...

michael johnson has a really long reach and is a pretty good striker. i thought really highly of tony ferguson's striking and johnson handled him. was one of those fights where i thought it was a clear mismatch and was completely wrong so it stands out in my mind. basically has only lost when he gets outgrappled. not sure he can deal with guillards speed, but he can definitely win a decision outboxing him or maybe by dropping and finishing him as well.

i like gus by sub. think he gets it to the ground and finishes him a lotttt.

A lot of bias in this video, but hey, I didn't expect anything less. Always good to hear pro's picks though.

On March 05 2014 11:16 Daut wrote: michael johnson has a really long reach and is a pretty good striker. i thought really highly of tony ferguson's striking and johnson handled him. was one of those fights where i thought it was a clear mismatch and was completely wrong so it stands out in my mind. basically has only lost when he gets outgrappled. not sure he can deal with guillards speed, but he can definitely win a decision outboxing him or maybe by dropping and finishing him as well. i like gus by sub. think he gets it to the ground and finishes him a lotttt.

Johnson also excels in the cage when he doesn't have to worry about being taken down. Johnson is the wrestler in this fight, with better striking and movement. Guillard hits hard but his chin is suspect these days. Also, these two used to be on the same team (Blackzilians), so Johnson knows what to expect from Guillard, especially since Guillard hasn't improved over the years.

As for Gustafsson/Manuwa, I'll be taking Manuwa at +360 or better, along with over 2.5 rounds at +115 or better. Both bets cover Manuwa, while I think Gustafsson will avoid Monica's power early, which means it will go to round 2 at least. Manuwa doesn't go deep in fights, but that's cuz he easily beats the guys he's supposed to beat.

Managed to get $762.50 on Gus a long time ago at -305. Just ended up betting Manuwa +360 for the $38 freeroll on Gus. That's a really nice freeroll on a -450 favorite.

I also bet Diabate -110 against Latifi for $220. Rather big bet considering I don't know more about Latifi than what I saw against Mousasi. I actually think that even though he is 40 years old Diabate is quite underrated and I like him in this fight.

On March 05 2014 21:17 Nazgul wrote: Managed to get $762.50 on Gus a long time ago at -305. Just ended up betting Manuwa +360 for the $38 freeroll on Gus. That's a really nice freeroll on a -450 favorite. I also bet Diabate -110 against Latifi for $220. Rather big bet considering I don't know more about Latifi than what I saw against Mousasi. I actually think that even though he is 40 years old Diabate is quite underrated and I like him in this fight.

I'm not gonna pretend like I know much about Latifi, cuz I don't. However, I do know that he took the fight versus Mousasi on a few days notice, which meant he didn't have a full camp and had to cut a lot of weight at a fast rate.

For this weekends UFC event, both Latifi and Gustafsson have had full camps and they have trained together that entire time, and Latifi's weight loss is on schedule and he only needs to lose 12 more pounds or so (this is what I read a couple days ago).

I expect Latifi to be aggressive in this fight, as he has less to worry about here. From what I've been reading, people are hyping up Diabate a lot, and keep mentioning his ground game, as if he's some slick grappler... Kinda sad, but whatever.

Yea I knew that too so that was included in the evaluation. I just was entirely unimpressed even considering the short notice.

Yea the main thing with Latiff in the Mousasi fight is he looked like he had zero idea how to close the distance. And Diabeetus has even longer reach than Mousasi and moves better as well so closing that reach should be even harder. So I like the bet on cyrile, but then again im an mma betting whale.

just saw manuwa's fight records, all TKOs and 1 sub

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jimi_Manuwa

Also has home advantage vs gustaffson.

Any analysis on why gustaffson is a heavy fav? PR

I think I've more or less single handedly bet down Gustafsson by Sub from 5.5 to ~4 or so on Unibet. Assuming he wins by sub and some of the favorites actually win I'll make a ton of money. If he doesn't I'll probably lose like 1k or something.

Gustafsson is better then Manuwa at everything. Manuwa might bench a bit more and he might kick or strike harder, but I'm not sure about that.

Gus should have a big advantage in wrestling and BJJ and he has better footwork and probably cardio so I assume it'll go like this.

Round 1-2, Gus runs around jabbing Manuwa in the face while trying to steal rounds, possibly by takedowns.

Round 3+, Manuwa has no power left, Gus finishes him. Probably by a RNC.

On March 05 2014 21:17 Nazgul wrote: Managed to get $762.50 on Gus a long time ago at -305. Just ended up betting Manuwa +360 for the $38 freeroll on Gus. That's a really nice freeroll on a -450 favorite. I also bet Diabate -110 against Latifi for $220. Rather big bet considering I don't know more about Latifi than what I saw against Mousasi. I actually think that even though he is 40 years old Diabate is quite underrated and I like him in this fight.

Think a guy I used to train BJJ with had been to the gym Latifi used to work out with. A bunch of very big guys who liked to grapple. New gym: Allstars with actually MMA-fighters rather then amateur wrestlers and BJJ-bluebelts.

@MMAjunkieMatt 3m
Spent time w/ Cyrille Diabate earlier, who told me his fight at UFC Fight Night 37 in London will be his last. Story soon at MMAjunkie.

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This should make everyone backing Latifi more confident in their bets. Statistically speaking, MMA fighters rarely retire after winning a fight. Aside from Chris Lytle, I can't remember the last guy who did so.

On March 06 2014 14:35 jvilla777 wrote: just saw manuwa's fight records, all TKOs and 1 sub http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jimi_Manuwa Also has home advantage vs gustaffson. Any analysis on why gustaffson is a heavy fav? PR

I don't like writing breakdowns, so I'll just write down some pros and cons for both guys:

Gustafsson

• Better cardio
• Better MMA boxing
• Average kicks
• Above average MMA wrestling
• Knows what it's like to go 5 rounds without stopping
• Height & Reach advantage: 6'5 feet tall, 81 inch reach
• Faced the better competition

Manuwa

• Better kickboxer imo
• More power in his strikes
• Above average take down defense
• He's the hometown boy, which gives him a slight edge if it's a close fight that goes to a decision, and he won't have to travel
• Has shown to slow down in the second round, and this will be his first 5-round fight
• Height & Reach disadvantage: 6'1 feet tall, 79 inch reach
• He's apparently terrible when someone puts him on his back, but I haven't judged this for myself
• He's black
• If you take Manuwa, you might as well bet his ITD line at +485, or his KO/TKO line at +545. His money line is +375, but it's highly unlikely he'll be able to win a 5-round decision here.

Yea he probably has better kicks. Gus has some awkward ass kicks. Although they're getting better too.

ppl are betting gustaffson/johnson

Delorme vs. Grant is off. Grant somehow tore his meniscus after the weigh-ins.

as much as I want gus to win, I think I will bet on manuwa and johnson.

Is this the fight for title shot contender ?

Starts in 35 minutes.

PuertoRican final predictions? Tips? Hints? HELP I LOST ALOT LAST FIGHT!

On March 08 2014 11:47 milkman wrote: PuertoRican final predictions? Tips? Hints? HELP I LOST ALOT LAST FIGHT!

This isn't the easiest card to predit imo. Cards that are only available on Fight Pass will always be like this, cuz they put all of the new talent on FP now, which means there's guys from all over the world we've never seen, and many of them don't have fights on YouTube, like last weeks TUF China card.

These are my final predictions:

First thoughts:

• Gustafsson > Manuwa (I bet on o2.5 rounds at plus money, as well as Manuwa +425. Many European websites offer the o1.5 rounds.)
• Johnson > Guillard (I have a bet on o1.5 rounds. Other people like this fight to end ITD. I like Johnson to win, but I'm waiting for his line to get back to even money.)
• Pickett > Seery (This is supposed to be the most one-sided fight on the card, but Seery is at +725 on 5dimes, so I might bet him.)
• Nelson > Akhmedov (I bet o1.5 rounds.)
• Latifi > Diabate (I have a bet on Latifi's ML. I made this a few days ago, which was before Diabate said he will retire after this fight no matter what.)
• Barnatt > Nilsson (Everyone likes Barnatt and say that Nilsson is just a good pure-grappler, not good for MMA just yet. I haven't bet this yet. If I do, I'll pick the Over.)
• Scott vs. da Silva (dunno. Other people like Scott to win, but I have no bet on it yet.)
• Araujo vs. Mitchell (dunno. Other people like this fight going the distance, but I have no bet on it yet.)
• Gaudinot > Harris (ALL of the first fights on UFC cards for 2014 have been won by the underdog, so I bet on Harris at plus money. Harris is also the hometown favorite.)

Prelims: http://www.bestsportgo.tv/20140308/vv-765895--531b527df20a88.05675373.html

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Quick submission win for Gaudinot. Not surprised, as Harris sucks, but I thought it'd go longer than that...

wow, the british announcers are incredible. better than anyone else with maybe the exception of brian stann.

cant stress enough how nice it is to hear just the action with some analysis instead of a bunch of overused catchphrases.

On March 08 2014 12:20 Daut wrote: wow, the british announcers are incredible. better than anyone else with maybe the exception of brian stann. cant stress enough how nice it is to hear just the action with some analysis instead of a bunch of overused catchphrases.

So, you're telling me you don't miss... IT'S ALL OVERRRRRRRRRRR!!!

how low are teh chances the main goes to decision

To be fair anyone you listen to for more than 100 hours is going to be repeating the same stuff a bunch.

I like Rogan's hyperbole . I like that he gets as excited as I do.

Forgot these start so early. MMA on a saturday morning is awesome.

On March 08 2014 12:36 Zadan wrote: how low are teh chances the main goes to decision

Depends on what game plan Manuwa shows up with, and how well he conserves his energy. He needs to attack Gus's legs so that he won't have as much energy to keep shooting for take downs. Manuwa also needs to avoid getting taken down in Round 1, or else he'll be tired as fuck if he makes it to Round 2.

Basically, unless Manuwa has improved his cardio, this fight isn't likely to go the full 5 rounds.

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btw, I placed a bet on Brad Scott at -225.

Barnatt > Nilsson (Everyone likes Barnatt and say that Nilsson is just a good pure-grappler, not good for MMA just yet. I haven't bet this yet. If I do, I'll pick the Over.)

PR when you say this, what do you mean the over? The o2 1/2 at -120 ?
and if so, why not just go fight goes 3 rounds for -110?


side note, im go glad i bet against the retard walking out with the mask on, win or lose.

On March 08 2014 12:40 milkman wrote: Barnatt > Nilsson (Everyone likes Barnatt and say that Nilsson is just a good pure-grappler, not good for MMA just yet. I haven't bet this yet. If I do, I'll pick the Over.) PR when you say this, what do you mean the over? The o2 1/2 at -120 ? and if so, why not just go fight goes 3 rounds for -110? side note, im go glad i bet against the retard walking out with the mask on, win or lose.

If the o2.5 rounds and "fight goes the distance" are only separated by such a close margin, I'd rather take the -120 bet instead of the -110 bet. There's always a chance the losing fighter will try to go hard in the 3rd round since he knows it's do-or-die.

Ugh super ugly win for Silva.

And the Brazilian wins a decision... Pretty sad considering how terrible he looked, but that just means Brad Scott looked worse...

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Main card: http://www.vipboxus.co/boxing/199846/...s-jimi-manuwa-live-stream-online.html

is that the same guy?

Wow Brad got saved. How is this dude whos 13-9 doing so well?

Too bad Seery can't stop the TD's.

Great fight. Anyone else score the fight for Neil? I know picket got the takedowns but I feel neil was way more effective on the feet than brad was on the ground. He was landing big shots in r2 & r3 and Pickett didn't do much on the ground. I dunno I was cheering hard for neil after the first round so i could be way biased.

On March 08 2014 14:49 Stim_Abuser wrote: Great fight. Anyone else score the fight for Neil? I know picket got the takedowns but I feel neil was way more effective on the feet than brad was on the ground. He was landing big shots in r2 & r3 and Pickett didn't do much on the ground. I dunno I was cheering hard for neil after the first round so i could be way biased.

I had a bet on Seery, but I felt he lost cuz he couldn't stop the take downs. Seery had the better stand up, but it wasn't devastating one-sided striking imo, which meant the TD's sealed the deal for Pickett.

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Johnson/Guillard: I originally liked Johnson here, but the odds are way out of wack. I grabbed Guillard at +160, but he's +170 at some sites. I also have o1.5 rounds.

On March 08 2014 12:42 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On March 08 2014 12:40 milkman wrote: Barnatt > Nilsson (Everyone likes Barnatt and say that Nilsson is just a good pure-grappler, not good for MMA just yet. I haven't bet this yet. If I do, I'll pick the Over.) PR when you say this, what do you mean the over? The o2 1/2 at -120 ? and if so, why not just go fight goes 3 rounds for -110? side note, im go glad i bet against the retard walking out with the mask on, win or lose. If the o2.5 rounds and "fight goes the distance" are only separated by such a close margin, I'd rather take the -120 bet instead of the -110 bet. There's always a chance the losing fighter will try to go hard in the 3rd round since he knows it's do-or-die.

lol, hope the guy with yellow paper in the back is not a judge, because he is not even watching the fight

WAR GUILLARD!



have a big bet on him @ +150

damn, wtf Guillard is doing, he's just walking back the entire fight
never seen him fighting like that

What a terrible UFC card... There's been 1 good fight, while the rest were mostly boring as hell.

Hopefully Guillard gets cut after this, there's no reason to keep him around, as he's just getting worse with each fight and can't stay at the same camp for more than a year these days.

terribad. I'm still not sold on Johnson.

On March 08 2014 15:32 SeanBam wrote: terribad. I'm still not sold on Johnson.

lmao...

Melvin isn't good when he's forced to chase a target. MJ's movement was all over the place. With someone like Pearson, he will always come forward with a plodding stance that is usually in a straight line and makes it easier for Melvin to move around and land 1-2 big counter shots.

Melvin just got outclassed this time, and he wasn't able to adjust at all.

UFC eye poke 37

I mean, aside from all of us being excited that Gustafsson won and it won some people some money, this event sucked dick overall. The only good fight was Pickett/Seery.

Only saw Main Card, and Pickett/Seery was somewhat fun but Guillard was boring as hell - you could really see Johnson's frustration. But the latter played it well, not making any rush decisions and mistakes.

Too bad Gustafsson ended Manuwa that soon. Good thing we'll see a new title match soon... I guess? Or Jones fighting someone else first?

Finished bets:






Pending bets:

Gustafsson vs. Manuwa won FOTN... How???

Gustafsson was on top of Manuwa for most of the first round, and then the finish came after the first minute of the second round. This makes no phucking sense.

I'm glad 5dimes cancelled the FOTN bets.

On March 08 2014 16:16 SpasticInk wrote: Only saw Main Card, and Pickett/Seery was somewhat fun but Guillard was boring as hell - you could really see Johnson's frustration. But the latter played it well, not making any rush decisions and mistakes. Too bad Gustafsson ended Manuwa that soon. Good thing we'll see a new title match soon... I guess? Or Jones fighting someone else first?

Jon Jones vs. Glover Teixeira set for April 26 at UFC 172 in Baltimore

Oh ok thanks

Damn Zadan nice plays. Too bad you put so much on the over in the first fight. Still a greaat night.

How the hell didnt the fight between pickett and seery won FOTN. Gustafsson vs Manuwa? WTF

Its easy
they're still compensating Gustafsson for the title fight :D

jon jones sayin somthin like "gus and cormier should fight for the no.1 contender" lol

On March 09 2014 06:40 jvilla777 wrote: jon jones sayin somthin like "gus and cormier should fight for the no.1 contender" lol

well Jones is right, they have both defeated nobodies in their last fight

On March 08 2014 12:42 PuertoRican wrote:

Are they fucking serious, wtf is that shit ffs, why doesnt he just heel hook him when he is busy throwing sloppy girly punches?

The guy on bottom kept going for heel hooks the entire fight, almost like it was the only submission he knew. Both guys are BJJ fighters with terrible striking.