The bankroll management and variance guide - Page 2

post of the year !! :D

On December 15 2006 06:31 tere here wrote: Show nested quote + On December 15 2006 02:22 Catyoul wrote: Errr.... so you have a negative winrate in PT right ? :D Are you sayin I calculated it wrong or are you saying I suck? If you're saying I calculated it wrong I am going to be deeply offended.

let's say I didn't say anything !

Really nice post!

Just as a note
Often when it comes to statistics, the questions are often more important then the answers.

So instead of asking:
Whats my winrate with say 98% confidence?

a much more relavant quesiton is:
With what confidence am i a winning player?
x= winrate/(SD/sqrt(sample size/100))

Confidence is determend by checking x in some table, like this one:
http://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tabell_%...tiva_normalf%C3%B6rdelningsfunktionen

Example:
Leaving NL50 now(hopefully forever )
Was I a winning player?
Sample size: 22k, SD: 29,5, Winrate: 5 ---> x= 2.51

A quick look at the table says that i can be 99,396% sure that i was a winning player.

Keep up the good work, really like your posts!

Thank you for the kind words squip !

About your remark, it was already in my post actually, although only in excel form :

On December 14 2006 14:50 Catyoul wrote: You might be interested in the probability you're a winning player with a certain confidence. If so, use this formula in Excel :       =1-NORMDIST(0,winrate,SD/sqrt(hands/100),true)

It was a bit lost in the mass I guess, and people without excel will appreciate your contribution.

On December 14 2006 19:45 Yugless wrote: PITF=queen of poker

11 over 10 post
really good jobs

nice one sir.

best post I read here so far - great job!

this is too much

yes very interresting reading of high quality thank you!

On December 15 2006 04:17 Baal wrote: Show nested quote + On December 14 2006 19:45 Yugless wrote: PITF=king of poker

baal = king of mexico

and archduke of argentina

edit: nice guide btw i think we had a thread discussing this already and the formula but that may have been on a different forum... nonetheless it should be read by everyone so gj ty etc

hawt

love it.

ty

awful long post to explain some pretty simple equations
still a very good post though!

thanks Catyoul, this is great.

they didn't have this on my g.e.d. test

i like that too

i like

very nice post, we should try to translate it in french for the french version of tlpoker:
http://www.tlpoker.fr

i like