Lets calculate then:
Say I have button 3bet 8.5%, which might look sthg like this: TT+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo.
Furthermore say I will bet -> get it in with the following range (~3.5%)
Board: 3s 8s 5s
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.812% 20.47% 01.34% 7904 517.50 { JcJd }
Hand 1: 78.188% 76.85% 01.34% 29671 517.50 { JJ+, TcTs, TdTs, ThTs, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh, AsJc, AsJd, AsJh, AsTc, AsTd, AsTh }
He will only have about 22% equity vs such a range.
I will probably check back hands that have possible equity but are not good enough to get in. Like KxQs, KsQx, AxJs, ... Not sure exactly but I assume it is like 30% of the whole range. Lets discard any possible further betting in this scenario for simplification.
Then I will most likely bluff bet -> fold hands that I think have very little equity. I think that is the remaining ~30%. (most likely I will just check/give up some of the time but lets discard that for simplification)
So,
in about 41% of times he will be allin with 22% equity.
in about 30% of times it will probably gets checked to showdown and I will win like ~45% of times or so.
in about 29% of times I will bet/fold and he will win $124.
EV of c/r allin = 0.41 * (($1400 * 0.22) - 700) + 0.30 * (($129 * 0.55) - 60) + 0.29 * $124 = -161 + 3 + 36 = -$122.
EV of check/fold = -$60
Difference = $62
Obviously ranges may differ a lot and it may be even good vs some players. Its definately much closer than I thought it was before making this calculation.
(Edit: I didnt go over my calculations over again, so I am not claiming this is 100% correct.) |
(a pair of Jacks)
Czech Republic. Sep 17 2011 15:43. Posts 8915
