this was the thought I put into the hand with the info I had available
Preflop: I flat vs an unknowns CO raise, I think this is standard enough
Flop: A shortstack donks. I think his range can consist of what the hell ever. Lots of 1pair hands or random draws.
Aguli1 Flat called the donk which he can do very wide since its a minbet.
I think I have the best hand when the action comes to me very often. I raise because calling the minbet gives them ridiculous odds on draws or overcards. I get two calls, one from the shortstack (who I basically throw out as irrelevant at this point), and the full stack.
The fullstack's out of position flat call on 4s6h8h indicates to me that he does not have a monster (2p+). I believe this to be the case because the board is very wet and its extremely likely that he would re-raise me with strong hands.
On the turn, the shortstack donkshoves for 1/4th of the pot. I think its totally standard to expect to be in good shape vs the shortstack (VERy likely fish). The fullstack calls again, and action is on me. The fullstack's call here really clinched the deal for me; if he had a monster there is no way he would give me these sick odds by the turn and there is no reason to expect me to bluff into him on a 2c.
So I put him on a draw or a one pair hand that is confused. I jam for value.
That was my thought process. Here is a stove reflecting what I was thinking/expected to be up against.
301,014 games 0.067 secs 4,492,746 games/sec
Board: 6h 4d 8h 2c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.550% 28.91% 00.64% 87015 1935.50 { TcTh }
Hand 1: 51.746% 51.36% 00.39% 154597 1165.00 { 88+, 66, 44, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, A8s, Ah7h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, Kh9h, Q8s, J8s, Th9h, T8s, Th7h, 98s, 86s, 84s, 75s, 64s, A8o, Q8o, J8o, T8o, 98o, 86o, 84o, 75o, 64o }
Hand 2: 18.704% 18.12% 00.58% 54553 1748.50 { QQ-99, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, A8s, Ah7h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, Th9h, T8s, Th7h, 98s, 5h4h, A8o, T8o, 98o }
HU I am about 50:50 with the shortstack's range here (Hand 1 in the stove).
I am trying to understand, maybe my head is just rock-hard, IDK.
I REALLy, truly deeply want to know what part of my logic is not accounting for realistic hand ranges, so that I can start playing well. If I just start 'trying not to overplay' or something, I always end up playing super weakly post flop
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