I think shoving the turn was probably bad..villian was an average reg if i remember correctly, so not some aggrofish spewing. I put him on 66 or 22 given that 99 only has 1 combo. So that means I have 13 outs on the river

Board: 9h6c2cQd
Equity Win Tie
MP2 29.55% 29.55% 0.00% { Qc9c }
MP3 70.45% 70.45% 0.00% { 66, 22 }

pot odds are slightly higher 34%, but I think I couldve called and gotten his stack if I hit, folded if I didnt, saving me 2.95$. good plan?

edit: yeah it was 2.95, my bad. added some calculations

0.2955x21.80 = 6.44
0.7045x70.5 = 5.25
net won = 1.19

he only had $2.95 left... 105% standard

folding at any point after turn hit would be a big mistake

youre saying its standard for me to shove or call?

shove is standard but u can call if u think hes got pure air and will fold to a shove (essentially u'd be slowplaying the nuts instead of forcing him to fold his air, with no intention of folding any river)

calling turn and folding to a $3 into $16 river shove with ur hand would be absurd

So youre saying hes going to have more than 18% air in his range (3 into 16), making folding the river a bad move? I donno about that, I feel like im wasting money knowing that he has a set. His stats werent super aggressive

Actually I just looked up his stats on pokertracker, he seems to be a nit, so yeah thats why I didnt think he had any air

over 3k hands hes 12/6/2, reraises flop 11% of the time, barrels turn 40%. still a bad move to call and fold missed river?

This hand is standard and you cant play it different than you did.
On the turn you have plenty of outs even with the worst possible setup(vs 99,QQ pretty unlikely for him).
He ,on the other hand,might have some hands here and there that you dominate and that he will check fold on the river.
Even nits do spew at times.And given preflop action ,he might very well hold hands like Acxc,7c8c,3c4c,4c5c,JcTc.
Ive seen AA in these spots as well at times.Misclicks happen preflop.

nh

he can still have hands u beat, even if he can't have pure air: value hands like 62s, 96s, missed combo draws

if u think u're literally never good on turn, then yeah u can make an insane fold on river. it's basically a spot where u'll win a tiny bit if u're right, but lose a lot if u're wrong, so it depends on ur confidence. u'll also get no information if u fold, so u won't know if u're right or wrong which can hurt a lot if u're making incorrect assumptions

also it's 3 into 19 i think? since his 3 counts towards the pot. im actually not sure, which is embarrassing cause it seems like a simple problem
so pot is 16, we each have 3 left. if we win, we win the pot plus the opponent's 3. if we lose, we lose our 3. so i think it's 3 into 19?
break-even point = bet / (pot + bet)? someone correct me if i'm wrong

maybe better equation is Amount to call / Total pot

yeah its 19, i was just copying your 3/16 and didnt look at the hand again lol. Well I really doubt a huge nit is going to have crap like 96s and 62s, but he could have AA or KK misplayed I guess..

aight so verdict is if hes ever bluffing or has something other than a set, I should be shoving turn. thnx 4 the replies

well, he's sb in an already 4-way pot that may go 5way with the BB, so discounting the other 2pairs because "hes a nit" may not be accurate. nits may have some sense of implied odds with sketchy hands

also i wanna reiterate how shoving turn is never a big mistake. even if he always has a set (which is a hyperbole unless he's an actual robot with predetermined plays) u're practically breaking even given the odds. it's just always going to be a good play. on the other hand, folding river, or even a turn shove because u're just barely not getting the right odds against a range that consists purely of sets, can very possibly be a _big_ mistake.

however, i do encourage you to make player-specific reads and appropriate counter-measures. u are right that if opponent has the exact range u put him on, u are indeed better off calling turn and folding blank rivers. still, it comes with a big caution sign because if u are incorrect, u are very much burning money and losing much more than what u would win if u're right

flatting pf as default is bad imo

On November 23 2014 23:23 dogmeat wrote: flatting pf as default is bad imo

u squeeze as default?

i think folding is kinda meh

why is it bad? I can get squeezed or something? would it be better if I was cold calling 1 player? Im trying to become less nitty but I still play a lot tighter than most players I see, this is near the bottom of my flatting range

you cant squeeze every single one cute looking suited hand, so i think this is a fold... def vs 3.5x, its proly disciplined fold even vs minraise

you can get squeezed or oop vs 3 players with dominated hand, flatting is the worst option even hu
this is your equity hu vs random co ranga i just pulled out of my ass
MP2 57.71% 56.50% 1.21% 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, 54s, A8o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo
MP3 42.29% 41.08% 1.21% Q9s
not good and you are not even gonna realise that equity


if you want do up your vpip, you can do that by flatting more ip, not forcing urself into really questionable spots by flatting on sb

uhm Im on the button here..what are u talking about OOP lol. if I was in the SB i would definitely fold yeah

sry
calling otb with this hand is close to 0ev imo, sounds crazy but these hands dont do that well as one might think
i like squeezing ip more than squeezing oop with this particular hand

anyways its always up to your judgement, if you think you can make it work, have reads, players involved are bad etc
QTs is call for sure

i almost contradicted myself w/ whole 'flatting more ip' but that was meant for hu pots mostly, multiway you need strong draws or hands flopping strong , Q9s is somewhat in between - too strong to fold, too weak to call comfortably