So this blog post has been a long long time in the making. I have wondered and wondered why it was I couldn't win post 2007 in poker and what it was I used to do that I no longer had been able to do. Many had told me how I just "ran very lucky" over a small (100k) sample, and I really didn't want to believe it. What I know now is that 100k is a VERY small sample LOL, and a lot can actually happen in that frame of hands.
LOL first of all, what's funny about this is how good I actually thought I was. I seriously thought there were maybe 2 or 3 others that played 3/6 that were even close to my skill level. It's absolutely laughable how good I thought I was compared to how good I actually was. I'm going to post some hands for fun from back then, it should be enjoyable for anyone who has been around to hear me whine/pout/brag/trash talk during my "career".
What sparked this post was my interest in my EV adjusted from those previous hands, so I e-mailed PS and requested they send me all my hands from 2007. It's taken quite a while to input them all into my HEM, but I started realizing the specific reasons I began to lose.
So before HEM was created, no one actually knew anything about 3bet/4bet %. Some players were 3betting something ridiculous OTB and no one was the wiser. Apparently HEM came out, and everyone got it except me. My entire strategy relied on 3betting, calling 3bets and 4betting. I used to 4b to half my stack, I'd make it 16, 3bettor would make it 52, boom, 200. LOL. I think I even ended up 4betting to 200 then folding sometimes!!! So pretty soon everyone began to learn the proper 3betting/4betting frequencies, and I'm sitting there wondering why people don't call my 3bets anymore and 4bet me so much... I tried to adjust by 5b bluff shoving, but even my weaker opponents knew correct 4betting frequencies, I was sitting there in the dark. That's probably a big reason I started getting stomped on.
Also, it was a lot easier to read hands back then, when people didn't know how to balance their ranges, they would be so scared about getting drawn out on that there was so much raising and 3betting all in on the flop, it was much much easier to figure out what someone had. If I 3bet or called a 3bet (LOL calling 3bets, I guess I used to call 50% of them?... this comes into play a bit later), I'd almost just be raising and getting in any pair, any draw... people would stack off with 2nd pair so I guess it seemed good. Oh, and if they ever called an open, I'd just triple barrel my entire range, because without balance, they end up making it so obvious what they had that it was easy to move them off it or merge and value bet them.
Oh here's another reason ... I was so awful fundamentally in the first place. I played so many of these hands SOOOOOOOOOO bad. I can't put into words how silly I feel for thinking I was so good, because now I realize I'm not very good and I make a ton of mistakes, but I am probably 5x the player I was then. I have trouble even believing that I won money, but then again, I suppose most others weren't very good either.
For as bad as I was fundamentally, there were some things I was good at, which were newer concepts at the time, but now to most people they seem very standard. I.E. the difference between a merged and polarized range. Most people didn't really know what that was about and I definitely used it to exploit people a lot. Bet sizing and timing tells were other things I exploited decently well, though people are much better at figuring those things out, just hand reading in general has improved a ton, even some fish seem to have decent hand reading skills nowadays. Since I've begun winning again, I've really only found a few instances where I've been able to exploit timing at all. These few things I believed I did well are so far outweighed by the drastic fundamental mistakes I made that it just wasn't enough to keep me afloat.
I always used to think that the best players were the ones who induced the most mistakes from their opponents, and I still believe that to an extent, but I think of it in a different way now. I think the best ones are the ones who don't need to do anything extremely negative EV to accomplish this. They tilt their opponents by never making a mistake, then eventually their opponent makes a mistake, and it begins to compound on itself. Solid play always trumps the guy trying to induce action in the long run.
People don't really auto tilt anymore after losing a buy in by getting coolered or whatever because they are so much more used to losing buy ins and are much better at dealing with it in general. Very few play scared money anymore either. Those are other things I used to try to prey on that don't really work too well now.
Anyways, to some of these hands, GOD, they are so ugly LOL....
Submitted by : MARSHALL28
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: z8eldred $885.25 USD
Seat 2: schoolato $2211.00 USD
Seat 3: Marshall28 $1025.00 USD
Seat 4: johnnykran $615.00 USD
Seat 5: gp333 $1189.50 USD
Seat 6: gusse10 $1891.65 USD
schoolato posts small blind [$3.00 USD].
Marshall28 posts big blind [$6.00 USD].
Holecards
Dealt to Marshall28  
johnnykran folds
gp333 folds
gusse10 folds
z8eldred calls [$6.00 USD]
schoolato calls [$3.00 USD]
Marshall28 raises [$24.00 USD]
z8eldred folds
schoolato calls [$24.00 USD]
Flop (Pot : $54.00)
  
schoolato checks
Marshall28 checks
Turn (Pot : $54.00)
schoolato checks
Marshall28 bets [$42.00 USD]
schoolato raises [$2181.00 USD]
Marshall28 calls [$953.00 USD]
River (Pot : $2,044.00)
schoolato shows  
schoolato wins $2053.00 USD from main pot
Marshall28 doesn't show
schoolato wins $1186.00 USD from main pot
So, I'm guessing I felt my check behind on the flop induced this guy to c/r overbet shove for 150bb on the turn as a bluff. Nice read.
Submitted by : MARSHALL28
eat 2: Marshall28 $1222.85 USD
Seat 3: Sweet.kr $792.00 USD
Seat 4: johnnykran $772.00 USD
Seat 5: jacksintheho $126.50 USD
Seat 6: F r ta n k $517.35 USD
johnnykran posts small blind [$3.00 USD].
jacksintheho posts big blind [$6.00 USD].
Holecards
Dealt to Marshall28 
F r ta n k folds
Marshall28 raises [$24.00 USD]
Sweet.kr raises [$84.00 USD]
johnnykran folds
jacksintheho folds
Marshall28 calls [$60.00 USD]
Flop (Pot : $177.00)
 
Marshall28 checks
Sweet.kr bets [$144.00 USD]
Marshall28 raises [$1138.85 USD]
Sweet.kr calls [$564.00 USD]
Turn (Pot : $1,593.00)
River (Pot : $1,593.00)
Marshall28 shows
Sweet.kr shows  
Sweet.kr wins $1591.00 USD from main pot
Marshall28 wins $430.85 USD from main pot
Obv standard call of the 3bet oop w/ the 84s. I'm not sure whether I'm turning my middle pair into a bluff, or if I'm semi bluffing, but it's extremely doubtful I realized I had a backdoor flush or backdoor straight draw, who thought of those things back then? I guess I thought the % he folds + the % equity I have when he called was enough to make the play +EV, besides, what good player would try to see a flop and play poker? It's much easier to just go all in. But clearly, if I call a 3bet with an 8 and a 4 this flop must have just been too good for me to fold. Well played, nice pot.
Submitted by : MARSHALL28
Seat 1: Rizen $636.55 USD
Seat 3: klotzinger $725.45 USD
Seat 4: vadgisil $331.65 USD
Seat 5: Marshall28 $820.05 USD
Seat 6: MT UR Wallet $111.00 USD
klotzinger posts small blind [$3.00 USD].
vadgisil posts big blind [$6.00 USD].
Holecards
Dealt to Marshall28  
Marshall28 raises [$24.00 USD]
MT UR Wallet folds
Rizen raises [$84.00 USD]
klotzinger folds
vadgisil folds
Marshall28 raises [$242.00 USD]
Rizen calls [$182.00 USD]
Flop (Pot : $517.00)
  
Marshall28 bets [$554.05 USD]
Rizen calls [$370.55 USD]
Turn (Pot : $1,258.10)
River (Pot : $1,258.10)
Marshall28 shows
Rizen shows  
Rizen wins $1280.10 USD from main pot
Marshall28 wins $183.50 USD from main pot
Not sure I played this one too bad or anything, but just another testament to the games those days, I like how Rizen decided to call off half his stack before making sure an ace or a king didn't flop to get it in. I suppose if I was able to get him to do that, then 4betting half my stack was a good idea and I owned him. Too bad it's not that easy anymore, LOL.
Submitted by : MARSHALL28
Seat 1: nsd4eva $952.00 USD
Seat 2: Marshall28 $694.25 USD
Seat 3: needfood $2655.65 USD
Seat 4: johnnykran $600.00 USD
Seat 6: F r ta n k $670.35 USD
Marshall28 posts small blind [$3.00 USD].
needfood posts big blind [$6.00 USD].
Holecards
Dealt to Marshall28
johnnykran folds
F r ta n k folds
nsd4eva folds
Marshall28 raises [$15.00 USD]
needfood raises [$82.00 USD]
Marshall28 raises [$234.00 USD]
needfood raises [$2567.65 USD]
Marshall28 calls [$442.25 USD]
Flop (Pot : $1,352.50)
Turn (Pot : $1,352.50)
River (Pot : $1,352.50)
Marshall28 shows
Marshall28 wins $1386.50 USD from main pot
needfood doesn't show
needfood wins $1961.40 USD from main pot
A8o? Good enough for me, 4b huge, call. SHIP. E-Z game obv.
--Okay so on these other hands, I have like, somewhat of an idea of what I was thinking at the time and why I did what I did... not that they were good reasons or anything, but this next one ... I can't quite figure out what was going on in my head....
Submitted by : MARSHALL28
Seat 2 is the button
Seat 2: Marshall28 $1713.00 USD
Seat 3: FastEddie267 $2800.00 USD
Seat 4: Paulus_rus $1226.00 USD
Seat 5: kingsofcards $1396.00 USD
FastEddie267 posts small blind [$5.00 USD].
Paulus_rus posts big blind [$10.00 USD].
Holecards(Odds)
Dealt to Marshall28
kingsofcards folds
Marshall28 raises [$30.00 USD]
FastEddie267 calls [$25.00 USD]
Paulus_rus folds
Flop(Odds) (Pot : $70.00)
 
FastEddie267 checks
Marshall28 bets [$54.00 USD]
FastEddie267 raises [$170.00 USD]
Marshall28 calls [$116.00 USD]
Turn(Odds) (Pot : $410.00)
FastEddie267 bets [$320.00 USD]
Marshall28 raises [$695.00 USD]
FastEddie267 raises [$1883.00 USD]
Marshall28 calls [$818.00 USD]
River (Pot : $3,436.00)
FastEddie267 shows  
Marshall28 shows
Marshall28 wins $3434.00 USD from main pot
FastEddie267 wins $690.00 USD from main pot
On the flop: So I guess I thought I could hit a 7 170bb deep and win a big pot on a 4 card straight board w/ the bottom end of it? Suppose I thought it was enough equity to float, wait, gimme a break, I doubt the idea of how much equity I actually had in the pot even crossed my mind. Maybe I thought his range was only flush draws so if the flush didn't come, maybe I thought I could rep a flush? I honestly can't figure it out.
On the turn: So I improve to an oesd, villain bets the turn here, and I decide to rep absolutely nothing by raising him a little over minimum. Clearly I'm supposed to make him believe I slowplayed a monster on the 985cc flop, LOL. So now he shoves and I'm guessing this must have been part of my plan to induce him to go all in so I could call w/ 6 high. Better to be lucky than good, but this definitely wasn't my finest hour.
--So I went looking through this database to see the spot I got it in the worst and sucked out, here's the winner. I remember thinking about this one and thinking "I had top pair and a Q kicker, how could I fold?
Submitted by :
I think I'm gonna conclude this post with that one, if anybody thought this was funny enough to do another installment, I can go through these and I'm sure find plenty just as atrocious, some of them maybe even worse. So lastly, here's the graph and the stats from this 100k sample....
|
Contact Users: 623 Active, 0 Logged in - Time: 19:42
,
,
,
,