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Take A Shot? |
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k2o4 United States. Nov 27 2007 23:11. Posts 4803 | | |
Well NL50 6max has been going very fast. I basically haven't had a losing session yet, though most of the wins have been about 1-2 buyins. I haven't been leaving when I'm on top either, I try and always leave after losing a solid pot rather than when I'm winning big. Read something about that in Ace on the River and like doing it that way. Getting pretty used to leaving on a loss and don't feel a need to chase. Plus I'm seeing such a huge benefit to leaving after a loss, chilling for a bit, then coming back later. I think if I stayed after the loss I'd be more likely to lose money than win it back.
Anyway, rambling! The only losing sessions I had were yesterday when I got adventurous and tried playing some LAG, and then some maniac (60/40) to see how it went and get a feel for that perspective, especially since I NEVER do it. I actually did pretty well, but played 3 sessions and left each session after losing a big pot. Came out 3 buyins down from that experiment, then played a final session for the day and won it back playing my regular game. I like my regular game. I think it's ok. So I decided to stick to it.
Now I've hit $2,000. 20 Buyins for NL100. I was playing a 30 Buyin rule through NL25, but then I got inspired and took a shot at NL50 at 25 Buyins. It's gone well so far. Now I'm wondering if I should start taking shots at NL100. I think I want to wait a bit, till I have 23 or 24 buyins at least, so I have a bit more cushion. But maybe I'm just being too nitty. I do want to get out of the microstakes ASAP, but I also don't want to push it too hard and go backwards. I haven't played very many hands at NL50 and my success could just be a pretty good hot streak.
Actually, I know I'm running very well in big pots. That's been huge. I also think I'm playing an OK game, but not as good as my stats are saying. And who knows when the next downswing will come. I really don't want it to hit while I'm taking a shot with a short roll. Here's my Poker EV graph of my NL50 6max run so far...
And here's PT and a regular graph:
So what do you think this NewB should do?
1) Start taking shots now
2) Start taking shots at about $2,300 - $2,400
3) Stick to your 25 Buyin rule and wait till $2,500.
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BigRed0000  United States. Nov 27 2007 23:15. Posts 3554 | | | |
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sTrAtO Mexico. Nov 27 2007 23:46. Posts 5882 | | |
must be nice to run so good, I'd say take a shot at $2.2k  |
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| -Karla:Mira, tu película! -Yo: cuál? -Karla: Big Fish! jaja | |
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bohus04 Czech Republic. Nov 28 2007 00:18. Posts 536 | | |
wow, dunno about moving up but thats pokerev graph is the most "hot" or lucky i've ever seen.
What i have seen its always like the green line is under red and you have it vice-versa and by quite a big margin...
GL
Actually your running 10bi above expectation in 8,5k hands? Thats really sick heater imo... when i took a shot at nl50 i run exactly opposite way(like 6bi under in 4,5k hands). Im not an expert but i would recommend to stay on nl50 for a while yet. |
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| Trust me, I am a poker player. | Last edit: 28/11/2007 00:21 |
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k2o4 United States. Nov 28 2007 00:39. Posts 4803 | | |
Yeah, I guess I am running pretty overall hot. I think I hit a serious heater right at the start and got above the red line, and then I just have run quite well in the sense that I barely get sucked out on. Yesterday I sucked out a bit, but other than that I've been pretty consistently in with the best hand and just held up, coinflips included. Here's my EV graph from my entire poker career. This is the highest I've ever gotten above the red line. Think it's cause I gamble a bit more now than I used to.
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nomanirvana United States. Nov 28 2007 03:03. Posts 2523 | | |
You could take a shot, you are definitely running good though. Move down right away if you have a bad session. If you want a solid evaluation, I'd say play atleast 40,000 more hands at 50nl and see where you stand after that. If your winrate is still around or above 2-4ptbb then definitely move up.
I think you are playing a bit too tight. It cant be that bad at 50nl but at higher limits you could probably loosen up I think. Ive played tons of 50nl but I cashed out too much when I used to play, Im about ready to move up to 100nl so thats my thoughts on this. |
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| | Last edit: 28/11/2007 03:11 |
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Loco Canada. Nov 28 2007 08:32. Posts 21015 | | |
I would for 22-25 buy ins at the very least,possibly more if you don't feel comfortable or think you are mostly running hot |
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| fuck I should just sell some of my Pokemon cards, if no one stakes that is what I will have to do - lostaccount | |
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bigredhoss Cook Islands. Nov 28 2007 09:01. Posts 8649 | | |
it's just a psychological thing imo, you can definitely take a shot now if you don't tilt and have a solid step-down-loss. |
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JoeDeertay United States. Nov 28 2007 09:30. Posts 1730 | | |
By the looks of the EV graph you are definitely running well, and even though you are also playing well I think your results are a bit deceiving right now. I would wait until you hit 25 BI before taking a shot, and maybe even the 30 BI like you said your original plan was. If you take a shot now and stop running well, you are going to find out about it the harder way by dropping $100 stacks like vegable said instead of $50 stacks, and that is obv twice as hard to recover from. Just take your time and be patient and give yourself a cushion for the worst case scenario for when you actually get there. I'm not saying you can't win at 100NL, because in all reality it probably isn't even that much harder, but I think you should just wait it out before jumping the gun. |
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| Variance has a big brother named doomswitch. - edzwoo | |
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Benzooor United States. Nov 28 2007 10:13. Posts 630 | | |
I think you should take a shot, but make sure you have a stoploss at ~2-3 BI. If you run well it's a great bankroll boost, and if you run bad, well more time to learn 50NL |
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k2o4 United States. Nov 28 2007 23:23. Posts 4803 | | |
| | On November 28 2007 09:13 Benzooor wrote:
I think you should take a shot, but make sure you have a stoploss at ~2-3 BI. If you run well it's a great bankroll boost, and if you run bad, well more time to learn 50NL |
yeah I feel about the same. thinking that I'll aim to win 4 more buyins at NL50 and then take a shot and move back down if I lose 3 buyins. rinse and repeat. =)
thanks all for input |
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but you have my permission to do either. GL
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