small sample size + bad luck = bad graph :)

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PplusAD Germany. Jun 18 2007 15:27. Posts 7182

Okay today i was running as bad as i run at everest Poker when i busted my 170$ roll. I run this bad for the first time at Pokerstars.

I only played 14 SNG ( not more time due to university stuff)
and i busted the first 9 sngs in a row without cashing always being #3-#5 in chips when the final table started.

I have not been running good ( ive been running rahter bad) the last 3 days either , but i still won money .

This time however it was impossible.
there are different types of bad luck

-> Not getting big preflop cards + not hitting flops with medium cards ( only matters for short sample sizes )
You just dont get big preflop cards and you dont hit with your medium cards like J9 9T K10s 87s then you reach the critical lower than 8 BB thing loosing your fold equity but having to push with shit like K8o cause youd blind out the next rounds anyway.

-> setups = you hit a monster good hand someone still has hit an even better hand ...
but your hand is just too good to not think you are the winner here the big majority of the time.
you are doomed to go broke with that hand.

-> bad beats
You push allin when you are ahead 70% + but get lucked away
by a stupid opponent who was way behind when he called.

If all 3 of this bad luck types come together frequently in 1 single session you could play perfect poker but you will still lose money.

Not that i played perfect. (I am far too newb to play perfect poker)
I played calm and decently and as always had a big edge over my 1.75$ opponents.

but over this small smaple size of 14 SNGs there was simply not to win money with the bad luck conditions.

after the first 10 SNG i was down - 17.50 $

my pockets(22-99) always lost to 6 and 3 outers
my dominating hands lost to wired stuff like backdorflushes and rivered straights
my AKs and AQs never hit anything vs the pockets of my villians
my dominating hands got lucked away .

in the last 4 SNG i still ran bad but not as bad as before.
I got it heads up in my 11th SNG for today to lose
AT vs T9 when he hit a pair of nines while we where about equal ammount of chips.
after that beat i blinded all in with K5 vs his Q4 and of course he hit a queen while i hit nothing

12th and 13th SNG i busted due to not getting cards and then running into monsters when i pushed all in 77 vs 88 QQ AA
and A9s vs QQ

14th SNG was funny though.
There was a guy having 100 VPIP !!
he called every hand preflop no matter the bet size and his own cards. What a maniac.

this was so absurd
when he had about 2500 chips 100/200 blinds 2 people push all in with 2k stacks and he calls with 82o ..
ROFL
but his 82o > AK + AQs cause he hit a 2 and others hit nothing.

believe it or not ... but the guy got heads up with me.
Funniest thing i experienced in a while.
He had incredible luck to overcame a field of 17 pla<x>yers
calling every preflop bet no matter the size and his cards.

This time i won the HU game i had about 15K and he 12K ^^
1st Hand i had AJ and he called with K3o

So all in all i reduced my losses for today to about 3 buy ins.

here is the graph

ON a side not i sharkscoped some of this maniacs and got a pretty decent smile over my face.
Most of them are down 200$ in 150 SNGS micro stakes

0 votes

U see what i did there with A8 ? He 4 bets and there we go insta jam A8 : ---booooom -- . hahahaha ( Krantz)