EV math help

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Smuft Canada. Jun 11 2015 20:28. Posts 633

if we XR the flop and bet the turn with the intention of bluffing the river every time, what combination of turn/river calling frequencies create a profitable bluff?

Let's look at a common BB v BTN XR scenario:

2.5x pre so 5.5bb to the flop

2.75bb cbet and XR to 10.5bb, villain calls

26.5bb to the turn, 88.5bb remaining

now the stack sizes are kind of awkward to get it all in by the river without some slight overbets but w/e we'll use the sizings commonly seen in practice

turn barrel 20bb, villain calls

66.5bb to the river, 68.5bb remaining

Pot'ish sized shove for 68.5bb

let's say villain folds 30% of the time on the turn and 50% of the time on the river, is this a profitable 0 equity bluff?

0.3(26.5) + 0.7(0.5(46.5) - 0.5(88.5))

= -6.75 (pretty sure this is right, confirmed w/ representative scenario in CREV)

So a 0 equity bluff with those conditions is not profitable, lets say our bluff has 10% equity. So we plan to shove all rivers as a bluff and lose 90% of the time when called and win 10% when called, whats our EV now?

0.3(26.5) + 0.7(0.5(46.5) + 0.5(0.1(135) - 0.9(88.5)))

= 1.0725 (not so sure about this one, the represntative scenario i came up with in CREV says 0.37... not sure if i setup the CREV scenario wrong or if this EV math is wrong)

0 votes

Last edit: 11/06/2015 23:11

Joe Czech Republic. Jun 11 2015 22:10. Posts 5987

Its 0.3725.

You have a small mistake there, when you win when called, its 115, not 135. (= 26.5 pot + 20 turn bet + 68.5 river bet)

0.3(26.5) + 0.7(0.5(46.5) + 0.5(0.1*115 - 0.9*88.5)) = 0.3725

there is a light at the end of the tunnel... (but sometimes the tunnel is long and deep as hell)

ReDDcaFFe Bulgaria. Jun 11 2015 22:20. Posts 1172

Why would you c/r half pot cb to 3x?
4x that bitch!

I cant wait to take their money

TalentedTom This user is a quality poster

Canada. Jun 11 2015 22:29. Posts 20070

if you CR to 9bb and he calls w/ 5.5 originally in the pot, the turn pot size should be 9+9+5.5=23.5 not 26.5
if you are adding 9bb to his c-bet size then it would be 2.75x2 + 9x2 + 5.5 = 29

in either case the 26.5 is incorrect

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Smuft Canada. Jun 11 2015 23:07. Posts 633

On June 11 2015 21:10 Joe wrote:
Its 0.3725.

You have a small mistake there, when you win when called, its 115, not 135. (= 26.5 pot + 20 turn bet + 68.5 river bet)

0.3(26.5) + 0.7(0.5(46.5) + 0.5(0.1*115 - 0.9*88.5)) = 0.3725

okay nice looks like that was it

Smuft Canada. Jun 11 2015 23:11. Posts 633

ty for pointing that out as well Tom, flop XR should be to 10.5 bb instead of 9, edited to reflect that

Highcard Canada. Jun 12 2015 03:03. Posts 5428

my answer is no

I have learned from poker that being at the table is not a grind, the grind is living and poker is how I pass the time

Highcard Canada. Jun 12 2015 03:04. Posts 5428

wonder why I am wrong, hmm

I have learned from poker that being at the table is not a grind, the grind is living and poker is how I pass the time

Highcard Canada. Jun 12 2015 03:06. Posts 5428

oh, I see why

I have learned from poker that being at the table is not a grind, the grind is living and poker is how I pass the time

Highcard Canada. Jun 12 2015 03:08. Posts 5428

either way, yes your 10% equity barrel off makes more money than if you check fold river 100%

I have learned from poker that being at the table is not a grind, the grind is living and poker is how I pass the time

Highcard Canada. Jun 12 2015 03:23. Posts 5428

0.3(26.5) + 0.7(0.5(46.5) + 0.5(0.1*115 - 0.9*88.5)) = 0.3725
I don't understand why you are winning 26.5 30% of the time he folds turn bet but only winning 46.5 50% of the 70% total frequency. Shouldn't it be 66.5 based on the semantics

I have learned from poker that being at the table is not a grind, the grind is living and poker is how I pass the time

Highcard Canada. Jun 12 2015 03:28. Posts 5428

either way, between giving up on turn or barreling off, I got 0.7925 profit for barreling off vs turn check and losing 100%

I have learned from poker that being at the table is not a grind, the grind is living and poker is how I pass the time

Last edit: 12/06/2015 03:30

Smuft Canada. Jun 12 2015 03:38. Posts 633

On June 12 2015 02:23 Highcard wrote:
0.3(26.5) + 0.7(0.5(46.5) + 0.5(0.1*115 - 0.9*88.5)) = 0.3725
I don't understand why you are winning 26.5 30% of the time he folds turn bet but only winning 46.5 50% of the 70% total frequency. Shouldn't it be 66.5 based on the semantics

I think it would be 66.5 if we look at the river bet in isolation but we are looking at the EV of the turn + river bet

so we can't include the money we put into the pot in the turn as profit we gain on the river when he folds

Last edit: 12/06/2015 03:43

Highcard Canada. Jun 12 2015 03:53. Posts 5428

oh right I see how you writing it

I have learned from poker that being at the table is not a grind, the grind is living and poker is how I pass the time

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United States. Jun 12 2015 16:18. Posts 2734

I'd rather just have it

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Smuft Canada. Jun 13 2015 11:21. Posts 633

On June 12 2015 15:18 thewh00sel wrote:
I'd rather just have it

your troll intuition is actually spot on

EV of betting river only when we hit:

0.3(26.5) + 0.7(0.1((0.5(115)) + 0.5(46.5)) - 0.9(20))
= 1.0025

vs 0.3725 when we bet every time

SuperCardUser United States. Jun 23 2015 19:52. Posts 83

Are there certain textures you use this line on?