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ETF/stocks discussion anyone?

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YoMeR   United States. Aug 27 2013 19:10. Posts 12431
Hey all,

Being poker players eventually a lot of us are looking for transition out of this grind into other grinds. I'm looking into investments as a possible venture out of poker. Anyone care to start up a discussion with me here on investments namely ETFs, stocks, and index funds?

I guess I'll start it off by saying I'm lookin into these kinds of funds to be as diverse as possible without having to invest huge amounts into many different individual stocks. Just looking to invest a few thousand as an experiment and potentially start to build my portfolio.

Heard from a buddy of mine he's feelin some nuclear ETFs anyone care to comment on this?

As for more generalized questions if you are currently investing, which sites offer the most competitive rates? I'm researching on my own now but getting different opinions and perspectives on things never hurts.

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eZ Life. 

YoMeR   United States. Aug 27 2013 19:14. Posts 12431

Also if anyone knows about this or care to comment...

About investing in the "popular etfs" aka the ones with the highest trading volume etc.

For example here's a list of them.

http://etfdb.com/compare/volume/

eZ Life. 

mnj   United States. Aug 27 2013 19:35. Posts 3848

u got in at the most inopportune time. the sp500 hit 1700 about 2-3 weeks ago and is down from that.

housing starts are pretty good, so the fed is going to stop keeping interest rates so low.

higher interest rates = more highly discounted future cash flows = the entire market is going to be falling for a bit.

all the e.z money has been made.

bill gross:Never have investors reached so high in price for so low a return. Never have investors stooped so low for so much risk.

look at the index fund for hedge funds, they have been getting murdered out there.

SP500 has grown wat like 18% annually since the lowest point? gdp growth has been wat, 1.5%? does no one else feel the disconnect in that?

i think u should look to invest, and i like that you said as diversified as possible. but unfort europe is lagging like 2-3 years behind of US, and if u check out the emerging markets' growth rates you will see that the IMF have just released more pessimistic world growth predictions.

in conclusion, keep piling in the money, wait for stocks to fall a bit, and go invest in Vangaurds Total World, which is not only equities but bonds as well across the globe. can't think of a more diversified index.

since u are young though, u should be taking on more risk, i would say to invest aggressively if you have the funds for it. since u are younger, you have more time for ur fund to hit EV on riskier investments (10-15%). if you're an old fart, maybe look for 5-6%


Endo   United States. Aug 27 2013 20:00. Posts 952

I'm a trader working at a prop shop.

From someone working as a "pro in the industry", I don't recommend you (as an amateur) generally invest in stocks/ETF's unless you just want to hold them longterm.

If that's the case just do your research, dump cash in, and sit on them.

If you're planning on doing short term trading....good luck....

Retail investors (aka casual investors) are the fish at the table

 Last edit: 27/08/2013 20:00

YoMeR   United States. Aug 27 2013 20:15. Posts 12431


  On August 27 2013 19:00 Endo wrote:
I'm a trader working at a prop shop.

From someone working as a "pro in the industry", I don't recommend you (as an amateur) generally invest in stocks/ETF's unless you just want to hold them longterm.

If that's the case just do your research, dump cash in, and sit on them.

If you're planning on doing short term trading....good luck....

Retail investors (aka casual investors) are the fish at the table



100% agree with you there. I'm very aware of the fact that i'm just some fish looking to punt money into the investment community. But as you said I'm looking for longterm investments. I feel short term investment aka hit and running is just gambling...noone truly knows which short term investments will pan out and which will not. Just looking for a steady/reputable fund to invest into.

Was just reading an interesting article from forbes about looking into investing into ETFs that have low "cost efficiency" aka how much it costs to have money sit in there. the link to the article can be here.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/baldwin/2013/06/05/the-best-etfs-for-investors/

thoughts on this matter?

eZ Life. 

YoMeR   United States. Aug 27 2013 20:19. Posts 12431


  On August 27 2013 18:35 mnj wrote:
u got in at the most inopportune time. the sp500 hit 1700 about 2-3 weeks ago and is down from that.

housing starts are pretty good, so the fed is going to stop keeping interest rates so low.

higher interest rates = more highly discounted future cash flows = the entire market is going to be falling for a bit.

all the e.z money has been made.

bill gross:Never have investors reached so high in price for so low a return. Never have investors stooped so low for so much risk.

look at the index fund for hedge funds, they have been getting murdered out there.

SP500 has grown wat like 18% annually since the lowest point? gdp growth has been wat, 1.5%? does no one else feel the disconnect in that?

i think u should look to invest, and i like that you said as diversified as possible. but unfort europe is lagging like 2-3 years behind of US, and if u check out the emerging markets' growth rates you will see that the IMF have just released more pessimistic world growth predictions.

in conclusion, keep piling in the money, wait for stocks to fall a bit, and go invest in Vangaurds Total World, which is not only equities but bonds as well across the globe. can't think of a more diversified index.

since u are young though, u should be taking on more risk, i would say to invest aggressively if you have the funds for it. since u are younger, you have more time for ur fund to hit EV on riskier investments (10-15%). if you're an old fart, maybe look for 5-6%



Thanks for the response.

Even if that 18% growth is a bit off from the GDP who knows what will happen in the next few years right? All we know is that the stock market WILL grow at an X% over next 10 years...that's what i'm trying to bank a big portion of my assets on. obviously I will try to go look into more riskier investments..who doesn't want to hit that homerun? :D

Any advice on which broker company will be best for noob players that will be investing less than 100k? I know that vanguard has some sweet deals for people with 100k+ (rich get richer) accounts to induce action for them. Obviously low costs, and passively managed funds are best for me at the moment. I don't want people fucking around with the money so much...just let the market even out and make the money for us. Not looking for a homerun bet for this first round of investments...just some solid long term ones.

eZ Life. 

Endo   United States. Aug 27 2013 22:04. Posts 952


  On August 27 2013 19:15 YoMeR wrote:
Show nested quote +



100% agree with you there. I'm very aware of the fact that i'm just some fish looking to punt money into the investment community. But as you said I'm looking for longterm investments. I feel short term investment aka hit and running is just gambling...noone truly knows which short term investments will pan out and which will not. Just looking for a steady/reputable fund to invest into.

Was just reading an interesting article from forbes about looking into investing into ETFs that have low "cost efficiency" aka how much it costs to have money sit in there. the link to the article can be here.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/baldwin/2013/06/05/the-best-etfs-for-investors/

thoughts on this matter?


I'd buy blue chip stocks and hold them.

TSLA for short-midterm play, AMZN is an institutional moneymaker, and other blue chips will do you well.

Generally (on average) stocks will do you better than ETF's. Sure the best ETF's do better than S&P but a lot of them do a lot worse too. Plus the fees on ETFs are sometimes outrageous.

Personally I'm really bullish on TSLA for the short-term. The stock/company can do no wrong.


Gnarly   United States. Aug 27 2013 22:25. Posts 1723

Buy and hold dollars for a few decades, short gold at 1500-1600 and exit at 440. I think you could also short Aud and the Yen for a long while, too. America will be selling more and more and more oil to China.

But best thing is to provide liquidity to retail investors, if you're not super rich.

Diversify or fossilize! 

phexac   United States. Aug 28 2013 01:40. Posts 2563


  On August 27 2013 19:19 YoMeR wrote:
Show nested quote +



Thanks for the response.

Even if that 18% growth is a bit off from the GDP who knows what will happen in the next few years right? All we know is that the stock market WILL grow at an X% over next 10 years...that's what i'm trying to bank a big portion of my assets on. obviously I will try to go look into more riskier investments..who doesn't want to hit that homerun? :D

Any advice on which broker company will be best for noob players that will be investing less than 100k? I know that vanguard has some sweet deals for people with 100k+ (rich get richer) accounts to induce action for them. Obviously low costs, and passively managed funds are best for me at the moment. I don't want people fucking around with the money so much...just let the market even out and make the money for us. Not looking for a homerun bet for this first round of investments...just some solid long term ones.


Empirically speaking, managed funds will tend to under perform passively managed ones that track the index, especially once you take expenses and taxes (where applicable) into account. Looks at some Vanguard index ETFs, spread your money among those and forget about it for some time, adding periodically as you can. Vanguard total stock market ETF (symbol VTI) has 0.05% expense ratio is a good start. If you want to deal with bonds, Vanguard Total Bond market ETF (BND) is good with 0.10% expense ratio, though I personally don't think right now is a good time to have any money in bonds. Be wary of index funds that are more esoteric since any company can create an index. For example, there are a lot of emerging markets ETFs out there, and they track often very different things. It helps to examine what the fund actually holds and whether you actually want to hold it. Yahoo finance is a good place to read about the funds. VXUS is Vanguard total international ETF. It's also somewhat arbitrary, but probably provides the most complete coverage. Hope this helps.

Nitting it up since 2006 

thewh00sel    United States. Aug 28 2013 02:16. Posts 2733

If you're looking to "punt in money" you should go with Vanguard "total world" or whole stock market etfs.Low fees are your friend and it only takes 3k to open an account and start investing and you don't get eaten up with fees. Then just put money in every month on a budget and save as much as you can.

Disclaimer- I think the market is overpriced and that the entire WORLD financial markets are going to come crashing down within the next 1-5 years and am into physical silver and gold with all my investments as of late. I've even pulled a lot of money out of my brokerage accounts and plunked them into physical metal. You can get started very cheap in silver especially at these prices, so your small capital of a few thousand will go a long way. Also, there's nothing like holding real money in your hands.

I would also pick up some Bitcoin, and if you still want some exposure to the financial markets, you can still be diversified with a Stock-market tracking ETF. Ex: Say you have 3k to invest and you want to do a little of each of what's advised above. I might pick up 2-3 btc (bitcoin) for ~375. Grab 50oz or so of silver coins from apmex.com or a similar sites for ~1300-1400 depending on the coins and the spot price, and then either save up rest until you have enough to get started in a vanguard fund (if you like) or fire it into another market-tracking ETF with low fees. Then decide on your outlook of the world and continue to invest accordingly.

Metals are a great hedge for societal and/or economic collapse as they will retain value in an inflationary environment. Think: More money gets printed, dollar value goes down, metal value goes up. Also, just an advertisement for silver: We use more silver every year than is mined and yet somehow it is available to us at $25 per ounce. It is used in over 1000 products, and makes a perfect money.

Some gold/silver videos to check out:
Mike Maloney talking Currency vs Money


Mike Maloney on why our financial system is going to collapse


Ex-trader/analyst who follows silver vs the broader markets and also finds good prices on physical silver and shows them on his channel. He releases a couple videos a week and is pretty accurate/realistic with his predictions compared to other silver bulls who all say "Silver going to 500!" Here's one of his latest videos where he talks about a pick to buy:

A government is the most dangerous threat to man’s rights: it holds a legal monopoly on the use of physical force against legally disarmed victims. - Ayn Rand 

nlloser60   . Aug 28 2013 10:13. Posts 304

This is all you need to start: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/30/business-finance-investing/

Read, read, read, think, read more, think again, start a discussion (optional), decide, buy.

 Last edit: 28/08/2013 10:15

YoMeR   United States. Aug 28 2013 17:48. Posts 12431


  On August 27 2013 21:25 Gnarly wrote:
Buy and hold dollars for a few decades, short gold at 1500-1600 and exit at 440. I think you could also short Aud and the Yen for a long while, too. America will be selling more and more and more oil to China.

But best thing is to provide liquidity to retail investors, if you're not super rich.



Forex seems quite lucrative but I personally wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole...I've seen how sick the variance is going to be here and also the fact that i'm directly competing with the other sick ballers/geniuses/veterans seems pretty daunting as well. I'm just some noob nobody trying to swim with those monsters.

Kinda like some casual player hops into a 100/200 NL game online with pretty much any lineup would just get his face smashed inwards.

eZ Life. 

YoMeR   United States. Aug 28 2013 17:51. Posts 12431


  On August 27 2013 21:04 Endo wrote:
Show nested quote +



I'd buy blue chip stocks and hold them.

TSLA for short-midterm play, AMZN is an institutional moneymaker, and other blue chips will do you well.

Generally (on average) stocks will do you better than ETF's. Sure the best ETF's do better than S&P but a lot of them do a lot worse too. Plus the fees on ETFs are sometimes outrageous.

Personally I'm really bullish on TSLA for the short-term. The stock/company can do no wrong.



been hearing a lot of good things about TSLA...love their cars too. I agree that bluechip stocks and holding onto them (assuming they have a durable advantage in their sector) is probably optimal. I remember reading up about that in a book Buffet's daughter wrote...always gotta go for the long term in most cases.

I think I"ll probably stick with ETFs for now until i get comfortable enough to put some real $$ into this thing...I want to keep things diverse as possible and it's hard to do with individual stocks unless i'm putting away mad bank.

eZ Life. 

YoMeR   United States. Aug 28 2013 17:57. Posts 12431


  On August 28 2013 00:40 phexac wrote:
Show nested quote +



Empirically speaking, managed funds will tend to under perform passively managed ones that track the index, especially once you take expenses and taxes (where applicable) into account. Looks at some Vanguard index ETFs, spread your money among those and forget about it for some time, adding periodically as you can. Vanguard total stock market ETF (symbol VTI) has 0.05% expense ratio is a good start. If you want to deal with bonds, Vanguard Total Bond market ETF (BND) is good with 0.10% expense ratio, though I personally don't think right now is a good time to have any money in bonds. Be wary of index funds that are more esoteric since any company can create an index. For example, there are a lot of emerging markets ETFs out there, and they track often very different things. It helps to examine what the fund actually holds and whether you actually want to hold it. Yahoo finance is a good place to read about the funds. VXUS is Vanguard total international ETF. It's also somewhat arbitrary, but probably provides the most complete coverage. Hope this helps.



Thanks for the advice. I've been doing my own homework and seems like vanguard offers some of the most competitive rates for the fees they charge. I'm aware of the fact why most mutual funds etc suck due to the highway robbery going on via huge management fees and commissions.

I'm starting to get annoyed by a lot of companies they don't actually list a lot of relevant stats on their ETFs very openly...hard to find if it's actively or passively managed, what kinda commission/vigs they charging etc. I will def check out the yahoo fiance to get some more details on the funds.

seems like a tell that if they openly post their commission fees and management fees etc...that it's pretty good in terms of industry standards no? And if it's hard to get the actual numbers then might not be so hot...

eZ Life. 

YoMeR   United States. Aug 28 2013 18:01. Posts 12431


  On August 28 2013 01:16 thewh00sel wrote:
If you're looking to "punt in money" you should go with Vanguard "total world" or whole stock market etfs.Low fees are your friend and it only takes 3k to open an account and start investing and you don't get eaten up with fees. Then just put money in every month on a budget and save as much as you can.

Disclaimer- I think the market is overpriced and that the entire WORLD financial markets are going to come crashing down within the next 1-5 years and am into physical silver and gold with all my investments as of late. I've even pulled a lot of money out of my brokerage accounts and plunked them into physical metal. You can get started very cheap in silver especially at these prices, so your small capital of a few thousand will go a long way. Also, there's nothing like holding real money in your hands.

I would also pick up some Bitcoin, and if you still want some exposure to the financial markets, you can still be diversified with a Stock-market tracking ETF. Ex: Say you have 3k to invest and you want to do a little of each of what's advised above. I might pick up 2-3 btc (bitcoin) for ~375. Grab 50oz or so of silver coins from apmex.com or a similar sites for ~1300-1400 depending on the coins and the spot price, and then either save up rest until you have enough to get started in a vanguard fund (if you like) or fire it into another market-tracking ETF with low fees. Then decide on your outlook of the world and continue to invest accordingly.

Metals are a great hedge for societal and/or economic collapse as they will retain value in an inflationary environment. Think: More money gets printed, dollar value goes down, metal value goes up. Also, just an advertisement for silver: We use more silver every year than is mined and yet somehow it is available to us at $25 per ounce. It is used in over 1000 products, and makes a perfect money.

Some gold/silver videos to check out:
Mike Maloney talking Currency vs Money


Mike Maloney on why our financial system is going to collapse


Ex-trader/analyst who follows silver vs the broader markets and also finds good prices on physical silver and shows them on his channel. He releases a couple videos a week and is pretty accurate/realistic with his predictions compared to other silver bulls who all say "Silver going to 500!" Here's one of his latest videos where he talks about a pick to buy:



Nice post! Very insightful~

I was thinking a little about gold/silver/hard money kinda stuff...I didn't really look into it much since I don't really understand much about it.

I get so many differing opinions about hard cash stocks that I really didn't want to touch it either. The consensus among most of my friends and the research i've done is just don't be a moron, use common sense, and use proper asset allocation/diversification.

You seem to be one of the fellas that really believe in the gold thing. And you're starting to get me sold on it to look more into it.

Just curious tho what would be the potential arguments against investing in hard money vs stocks and other things of the like?

eZ Life. 

YoMeR   United States. Aug 28 2013 18:05. Posts 12431


  On August 28 2013 09:13 nlloser60 wrote:
This is all you need to start: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/30/business-finance-investing/

Read, read, read, think, read more, think again, start a discussion (optional), decide, buy.



nice, thanks for the link. So hard to sift through all that info tho. hard work ;p

eZ Life. 

cariadon   Estonia. Aug 28 2013 18:43. Posts 4014

Ray Dalio - How the economic machine works
Ray Dalio, the founder of the largest fund in the world, has written this piece.
Active value investing - V.Katsenelson
Katsenelson makes a well-argued case for range-bound markets and jams everything you would want to know about or learn in an university in three years into like 270 pages of easy to read text. There is no substitute for reading and his book is the place i recommend starting from.

Cliffs: Having a portfolio of 15-20 stocks is the way to go because stocks historically outperform other instruments. Your portfolio should be manageable. Each stock should be important enough for You to care but You need to have a few to ride out variance. Diversification by currencies, countries, sectors etc. is important.
There will always be the doomsday prophets hugging their gold, pessimists saying shit is rigged, conservative investors with their small profits. Read a lot, use your brain and bulldoze.

I don't understand why anyone would prefer 2+2 investing forum to books written by outstanding investors with decades of experience. The best thread over there is the one that recommends books, rest can be regarded as noise.
Take advantage of the option to create playmoney accounts for trading/investing, zero cost learning. If you are hesitant to risk your money just yet there is no argument why you shouldn't experiment with playmoney.


phexac   United States. Aug 28 2013 19:34. Posts 2563

One point that it seems didn't come across in my post was that funds underperform the market not primarily due to fees, but due to the fact that their returns actually underperform the market. Fees just make it that much worse. Specific market advice and predictions in general have a very poor track record, and people who give them tend to have no idea what they are talking about and have a smaller success rate than a monkey throwing darts at a list of stock and pick them that way. And this goes for the people who made stock or specific investment recommendations in this thread as well (and likely especially for them). The gold/silver advice was particularly horrid in its presentation as well as underlying analysis.

Nitting it up since 2006 

Gnarly   United States. Aug 28 2013 21:25. Posts 1723


  On August 28 2013 17:43 cariadon wrote:
Ray Dalio - How the economic machine works
Ray Dalio, the founder of the largest fund in the world, has written this piece.
Active value investing - V.Katsenelson
Katsenelson makes a well-argued case for range-bound markets and jams everything you would want to know about or learn in an university in three years into like 270 pages of easy to read text. There is no substitute for reading and his book is the place i recommend starting from.

Cliffs: Having a portfolio of 15-20 stocks is the way to go because stocks historically outperform other instruments. Your portfolio should be manageable. Each stock should be important enough for You to care but You need to have a few to ride out variance. Diversification by currencies, countries, sectors etc. is important.
There will always be the doomsday prophets hugging their gold, pessimists saying shit is rigged, conservative investors with their small profits. Read a lot, use your brain and bulldoze.

I don't understand why anyone would prefer 2+2 investing forum to books written by outstanding investors with decades of experience. The best thread over there is the one that recommends books, rest can be regarded as noise.
Take advantage of the option to create playmoney accounts for trading/investing, zero cost learning. If you are hesitant to risk your money just yet there is no argument why you shouldn't experiment with playmoney.



The thing about those guys writing the books... Why would they write them? To help out us plebians? Naw, cause that would hurt them and how they make money. Is it because they want to write a book for fun? Naw, cause writing a finance based book isn't fun. It's for money, because they can't make it as a trader.

I also advise using play money only for learning how to get in and out of trades, what it looks like to have to pay commission, but never to actually try to test out strategies and whatnot. The main reason is because the playmoney isn't being accounted for in real life, and while a small little retail account isn't much in the ocean of liquidity, one little account can make a retail brokerage have to dump their risk, causing the tides to change.

Diversify or fossilize! 

Endo   United States. Aug 28 2013 21:49. Posts 952

Best advice I can give you is to not trust anything anyone tells you. The moment you start buying into other people's beliefs as your own, you're gonna lose.

Personally I have a very different view on gold/silver (and I'm not at liberty to disclose positions/thoughts bc of my firm's positions and strategies) but I will say that most people don't consider all there is to consider when they go bull/bear on gold. The desk trading gold and silver is HUGELY profitable at my firm


 
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