A year ago I made predictions

Something tells me Puerto will not respond in this one!!

Predicting the future is fun.

Jacques attali thinks that there will be no government/laws left in the world by 2050. The world will be run by insurance companies and the super rich. everything will be a commodity, including humans.

How do you suggest investing into gold ?
Through ETFs or buying stocks of goldmining companies ?

Sry about maybe the stupid Q but newbie in this stuff

Am starting a new account because was on perma-lurker status until your post caught my attention again.

Distinctly recall you warning people a year ago and the lambasting that ensued by those who did not know better. Ironically, if any of those people had lived [or been affected in any way] in any of the countries that have been economically [Greece, Cyprus, etc.] eviscerated in the last few years, then they wouldn't have thought so lightly of your post.

In any case, when it comes to topics like this it sucks balls to be prescient but there is a lot more at stake than most realize so pointing out there's smoke where there is fire is something that should be paid great heed too.

With that said, do you think Cyprus will be patched over for the time being? What are your thoughts of them actually playing their hand 'face up' and telling populace what they were about to do even though they had no deal struck? Does it not seem nefarious that every damn time in similar instances in the past, they would do nigh everything possible to not have the words bailouts, haircuts et. al. bandied about in the media, yet this time it just so happens that they do the very thing they avoided like the plague in the past?

Also, what are your thoughts on limiting counter party risk and holding bullion in physical form? Started in paper assets myself and took profits and rolled them into physical due to all the overwhelming counter party risk that's plastered all across the system. With the looting of MFGlobal and PFGBest, where assets were essentially stolen outright it sure doesn't seem that the system is out to protect the average joe. Then again, the rule of law is bifurcated and the laws that apply to the average folk are surely not the same that apply to those criminal banking cabal & co.

On March 25 2013 07:46 N1GhtFoX wrote: How do you suggest investing into gold ? Through ETFs or buying stocks of goldmining companies ? Sry about maybe the stupid Q but newbie in this stuff

I think ETF's suck. Gold miners are fairly bombed out now so it might be a decent point to join the party. You need to do some serious stock picking though because a lot of the miners are just crap.

Find stuff that has the following:

1. A good, proven board of directors. Management is really important.
2. Cash flow, it's hard to find financing right now.
3. Mines in good jurisdictions (google a list).

I love Sandstorm Gold (ticker: SSL.TO/SAND), but that's just me.

On March 25 2013 09:07 NexusZero wrote: Am starting a new account because was on perma-lurker status until your post caught my attention again. Distinctly recall you warning people a year ago and the lambasting that ensued by those who did not know better. Ironically, if any of those people had lived [or been affected in any way] in any of the countries that have been economically [Greece, Cyprus, etc.] eviscerated in the last few years, then they wouldn't have thought so lightly of your post. In any case, when it comes to topics like this it sucks balls to be prescient but there is a lot more at stake than most realize so pointing out there's smoke where there is fire is something that should be paid great heed too. With that said, do you think Cyprus will be patched over for the time being? What are your thoughts of them actually playing their hand 'face up' and telling populace what they were about to do even though they had no deal struck? Does it not seem nefarious that every damn time in similar instances in the past, they would do nigh everything possible to not have the words bailouts, haircuts et. al. bandied about in the media, yet this time it just so happens that they do the very thing they avoided like the plague in the past? Also, what are your thoughts on limiting counter party risk and holding bullion in physical form? Started in paper assets myself and took profits and rolled them into physical due to all the overwhelming counter party risk that's plastered all across the system. With the looting of MFGlobal and PFGBest, where assets were essentially stolen outright it sure doesn't seem that the system is out to protect the average joe. Then again, the rule of law is bifurcated and the laws that apply to the average folk are surely not the same that apply to those criminal banking cabal & co.

I like physical Gold, but it's annoying to store (I don't think storing in banks is the greatest of ideas) so I mostly go for gold stocks. Due diligence is key both when you pick whatever platform you buy on and what stocks to buy.

Good work making some profit. I've lost money on my stocks the last few months...Duh.

As far as Cyprus and Greece I think the cat might be out of the bag. No one will trust banks in Southern Europe for a while and while the news might shift to whatever other country is the newest fuck up I don't think anything will be better until they leave the Euro zone and get their own currency.

Definitely. So do you think its only a matter of time before a country [whichever it may be] becomes the first domino to fall in respect to the Euro?

The 'recovery' that gets talked about is so mindnumbing is insane man. John William's Shadow Stats was one of the first sites that helped me assess what really was taking place instead of what they want you to see. There are definitely a lot of great sites out there.

Don't worry about Gold too much, because that's probably the safest 'bet' you can make. We see precious metals more as savings then investing, but to each their own right? We prefer Silver, but the beauty of this conundrum is that as long as people have done their research and looked into what's taking place, and figure out what seems prudent and what is comfortable for them, its 'all good' in a sense. In the long run, or at least while the Governments continue to print money like its going out of style, the effects of QEInfinity will continue to aid tangible assets such as Gold/Silver.

Will indeed add the book you recommended by Nigel Farage to my buy list. Always looking for something good to read. Just begun reading The Web Of Debt by Ellen Hodgson Brown. You should take a gander at the reviews and see if its something that might interest you.
http://www.amazon.com/Web-Debt-Shocki...p;sr=8-1&keywords=THe+web+of+debt

What do you think of Bitcoin and it making new highs and the Euro tanking at this moment? Its pretty easy to see that some people are searching for alternatives to fiat-paper currencies, especially when their being hijacked in broad daylight.

Great post dusty, I normally TLDR these long blogs but you kept me engaged from the start. Ill post some more thoughts when my session is over

Oh, and another interesting development in respect to Cyprus is the fact that the world's first Bitcoin ATM was just announced:

http://dollarvigilante.com/blog/2013/...-announced-first-location-cyprus.html

Hopefully it aids people in not getting financially raped, but we'll see.

On March 25 2013 11:18 NexusZero wrote: Definitely. So do you think its only a matter of time before a country [whichever it may be] becomes the first domino to fall in respect to the Euro? The 'recovery' that gets talked about is so mindnumbing is insane man. John William's Shadow Stats was one of the first sites that helped me assess what really was taking place instead of what they want you to see. There are definitely a lot of great sites out there.

Yea, it might take a couple of years but they just can't hold this together. People are waking up and it's starting to become an example of how you can't fool all the people all the time. UKIP is getting big, some German organisations is starting up, most southern countries including France, Italy and Spain is really not doing well at all and Germany can't bail people out forever without losing support. They'll say that everything is good right up until the point when it all breaks down and someone leaves, and then it'll fall apart within a couple of years.

Shadow Stats is a very important web site.

On March 25 2013 11:18 NexusZero wrote:Don't worry about Gold too much, because that's probably the safest 'bet' you can make. We see precious metals more as savings then investing, but to each their own right? We prefer Silver, but the beauty of this conundrum is that as long as people have done their research and looked into what's taking place, and figure out what seems prudent and what is comfortable for them, its 'all good' in a sense. In the long run, or at least while the Governments continue to print money like its going out of style, the effects of QEInfinity will continue to aid tangible assets such as Gold/Silver.

Yea, I just "stack". I buy on dips and then I don't really watch it. Been doing so-so in predicting short term movements but I'm kind of excited right now. Could be a fun few months, or it could be really boring a while longer.

On March 25 2013 11:18 NexusZero wrote: Will indeed add the book you recommended by Nigel Farage to my buy list. Always looking for something good to read. Just begun reading The Web Of Debt by Ellen Hodgson Brown. You should take a gander at the reviews and see if its something that might interest you. http://www.amazon.com/Web-Debt-Shocki...p;sr=8-1&keywords=THe+web+of+debt

Booked seemed to touch on a bunch of subjects that's important. Did you learn a lot from it or is it just the same thing that the Austrians has been talking about a while?

On March 25 2013 11:18 NexusZero wrote: What do you think of Bitcoin and it making new highs and the Euro tanking at this moment? Its pretty easy to see that some people are searching for alternatives to fiat-paper currencies, especially when their being hijacked in broad daylight.

Not sure, kind of like the idea but without being read up enough about it it seems a little bit unsafe. Also, as far as I know it's not backed by anything, so it seems like it's basically fiat money without a traditional central bank? Seems to be really high variance in it too and while that doesn't scare me for the most part I just haven't put enough time into understanding it.

On March 25 2013 11:20 TalentedTom wrote: Great post dusty, I normally TLDR these long blogs but you kept me engaged from the start. Ill post some more thoughts when my session is over

Thanks! I'll try to keep it up so that when I in fact post stuff that's not about poker it should be easy to read and fairly interesting.

I mean to be fair you're kinda predicting the obvious. Problems in the financial sector? More bailouts? Was this any surprise to anybody? Like predicting that there will be a "great storm in the future. Many lives will be lost". Yeah no shit.

I like physical Gold, but it's annoying to store (I don't think storing in banks is the greatest of ideas) so I mostly go for gold stocks. Due diligence is key both when you pick whatever platform you buy on and what stocks to buy.

Make sure your physical gold is actual gold and not that other stuff.

So much false and shady advice in here.

You should be more responsible than to give blanket financial advice on topics you have no specialization in without an ounce of any analysis.

Sure, buyer beware.

Dusty, why dont you like ETFs? What makes them bad in your opinion?

On March 25 2013 12:26 NewbSaibot wrote: I mean to be fair you're kinda predicting the obvious. Problems in the financial sector? More bailouts? Was this any surprise to anybody? Like predicting that there will be a "great storm in the future. Many lives will be lost". Yeah no shit.

True. Although, a year ago I got some flack for what I wrote. Basically what I write is; "Shit is in collision course with the fan. Prepare accordingly."

On March 25 2013 13:23 mnj wrote: So much false and shady advice in here. You should be more responsible than to give blanket financial advice on topics you have no specialization in without an ounce of any analysis. Sure, buyer beware.

I dunno what's false or shady but the only "advice" I've come with is the following:

1. Be careful, shit is happening and it's good to have some cash, some food and some other stuff at home just in case.
2. Be careful with Euro and USD.

I've written that I haven't made money on my stocks the last year or so and while I did mention a gold related company I don't think I've advised anyone to buy anything. I've stated some things I like and then I've said that people should do Due Diligence and don't buy companies in "bad" countries, with unproven management and without cash flow.

While I do agree that a lot of the stuff I'm predicting is more "negative" then what most people say I don't see how it can be considered shady to say that people should probably try to be on the safe side of things. I'm not telling everyone to put their money into gold (although, in one way or another I'll admit that I have to a lot of my money in it), but rather to keep some cash at hand and be careful.

On March 25 2013 13:44 greenbastard wrote: Dusty, why dont you like ETFs? What makes them bad in your opinion?

Well, again I'm no expert but for the most part anything constructed by a bank is made for the bank to make money rather then for any other reason. I think that in the long run buying that stuff is like playing without rakeback, sure, it could work out but in the end you'll probably be suffering from the rake while the house (in this case a bank) laughs all the way to the, ehh, bank.

Fun anecdote: Had a fair bit of money in a Swedish bank, one of the biggest, they call me up and tell me I'll get a personal banker or something like that. I go "uhh, ok" and I walk to the meeting. They ask me a bunch of questions and I tell them I'm saving up to buy a house so I don't want any risk what so ever and I want to be able to withdraw the money within 2 years. Fine, they say, and bring in another advisor. I ask them to give me a bunch of suggestions along those lines and tell them that I'll be back when I've read them. I get about 3cm of random papers with different kinds of crap. It's like 15 different things they feel would be right for me. Not one, not a single one, managed to come close to my suggestions about no risk and being able to withdraw it within 2 years. Since then I consider anything a bank tries to do with my money highly suspect until proven otherwise.

to much of an apocalyptic tone to your "advice" and "predictions".

Your basically grasping for straws to confirm your "predictions".


And i'm on the pessimistic side when it comes to the global financial system, and think it is broken and can implode at any time. But there is still hope of fixing it, getting back on track, i just have lack of confidence in humanity as a whole and disbelief in the (poor) application of neoclassical economic models, specifically Keynesian theories.

Good post. I think to a lot of people who are well read on the world economy as a whole the stuff you predicted might seem obvious; but to the majority of people who read blogs on LP, and to the average Joe, seeing the prediction followed by a synopsis of how things have unfolded over the past year is really helpful in the awakening process.

I've woken up a lot over the past 6 months myself and although I am not a fan of investing in any mining stocks, I am very bullish on precious metals in general. Silver, in particular, has the highest upside potential imo and anything other than the physical metal in your hands is a waste of money. Do you really think that if the dollar collapses that you will be eligible to get your silver from the SLV etf you bought it from? There is a LOT of controversy as to whether or not precious metals ETFs even have as much metal as they claim. For example there was a day in January where the SLV added 572 TONS of silver (more than was added in all of 2012) available for purchase overnight. source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01...572-tons-silver-one-day-more-all-2012

If you dig around on youtube you can find some videos showing just how difficult it would be to take delivery of that much silver; that is the primary reason not to be invested in the ETFs of precious metals and to just get the physical. If the investment is meant to protect you, then it won't do you a bit of good if you can't get to it if the economy comes crashing down.

I'm also in agreement that you should have some food/water/other preps as well. Even if you aren't someone who thinks the world is going to come crashing down in the next 10 years, ask yourself if a hurricane/earthquake/flood happened and you had to do without power/grocery store for more than a week would you be able to survive? What about 2 weeks? In New York after Hurricane Sandy rolled through, people were already digging through dumpsters for food after two days.

Anyways, that's my two cents on the world economy/general defensive investments. I'm not all-in on silver/gold/guns/food/water, but I think those things are a great hedge and defensive diversification investment to make in these uncertain times.

ps: Dusty do you follow Kyle Bass at all, I haven't read through a lot of your blogs but I know he is highly respected and comes off as a very smart guy. He's very bearish on fiat as well and is predicting that Japan is the next to fall before the Euro zone. You can find a lot of his videos/interviews on youtube.

On March 25 2013 23:39 thewh00sel wrote: Good post. I think to a lot of people who are well read on the world economy as a whole the stuff you predicted might seem obvious.

Regardless - still a very nice post - thanks for the read swedeman

On March 25 2013 10:07 DustySwedeDude wrote: Show nested quote + On March 25 2013 07:46 N1GhtFoX wrote: How do you suggest investing into gold ? Through ETFs or buying stocks of goldmining companies ? Sry about maybe the stupid Q but newbie in this stuff I think ETF's suck. Gold miners are fairly bombed out now so it might be a decent point to join the party. You need to do some serious stock picking though because a lot of the miners are just crap. Find stuff that has the following: 1. A good, proven board of directors. Management is really important. 2. Cash flow, it's hard to find financing right now. 3. Mines in good jurisdictions (google a list). I love Sandstorm Gold (ticker: SSL.TO/SAND), but that's just me.

Investing into a miners is not exactly investing into gold. It's investing in a company. That's why , for example, you see things like gold rising, miners stagnating/going down. The only 100% sure way to invest in gold is to buy physical gold. When you own it physically, you have it.

On March 25 2013 14:56 uiCk wrote: to much of an apocalyptic tone to your "advice" and "predictions". Your basically grasping for straws to confirm your "predictions". And i'm on the pessimistic side when it comes to the global financial system, and think it is broken and can implode at any time. But there is still hope of fixing it, getting back on track, i just have lack of confidence in humanity as a whole and disbelief in the (poor) application of neoclassical economic models, specifically Keynesian theories.

If you were a poker player you'd know hope in this case is EV- .