A year ago I made predictions - Page 2

On March 25 2013 11:18 NexusZero wrote: What do you think of Bitcoin and it making new highs and the Euro tanking at this moment? Its pretty easy to see that some people are searching for alternatives to fiat-paper currencies, especially when their being hijacked in broad daylight.

Not sure, kind of like the idea but without being read up enough about it it seems a little bit unsafe. Also, as far as I know it's not backed by anything, so it seems like it's basically fiat money without a traditional central bank? Seems to be really high variance in it too and while that doesn't scare me for the most part I just haven't put enough time into understanding it.

Read about it then before saying it's a fiat money. It's not. It's not backed, but how about gold? So it's a currency on it's own. Supply is limited, it's not debt based and not controlled.
The only problems I see with it: it's easy to delete and gvnmt can still push it to the underground. So huge variance for now.
Gold for me is a storage of wealth, bitcoin is a currency.

How many countries are in Europe vs how many have had bailouts? And you think you're half right...lol.
I predict that a country in the middle east will overthrow it's long-term fascist dictator in the next year...Is that really all that insightful?

On March 25 2013 14:56 uiCk wrote: to much of an apocalyptic tone to your "advice" and "predictions". Your basically grasping for straws to confirm your "predictions". And i'm on the pessimistic side when it comes to the global financial system, and think it is broken and can implode at any time. But there is still hope of fixing it, getting back on track, i just have lack of confidence in humanity as a whole and disbelief in the (poor) application of neoclassical economic models, specifically Keynesian theories.

Well, if decent part of the stuff I said would happen actually happens in less then a year I'd say it's more then straws. Give it a year or two and I'm fairly sure QE will not have ended, riots will probably happen at least in a few more Euro countries and the US debt will probably be even higher.

I think we'll get back on track too, it's just that the Euro zone has to break up or be completely reformed first. I think it's a good chance it'll break and very little chance it'll be reformed. I also think that guys like Rand Paul, Nigel Farage and other who actually have the right idea and some small chance of getting some real power might make a big difference. However, it'll probably be much worse before it gets better.

On March 26 2013 11:43 nlloser60 wrote: Investing into a miners is not exactly investing into gold. It's investing in a company. That's why , for example, you see things like gold rising, miners stagnating/going down. The only 100% sure way to invest in gold is to buy physical gold. When you own it physically, you have it.

True that. Not going to argue with that.

In theory I'd say it should be a decent correlation but then you look at reality and, yea.. Not going to argue with it.

On March 26 2013 11:56 nlloser60 wrote: Read about it then before saying it's a fiat money. It's not. It's not backed, but how about gold? So it's a currency on it's own. Supply is limited, it's not debt based and not controlled. The only problems I see with it: it's easy to delete and gvnmt can still push it to the underground. So huge variance for now. Gold for me is a storage of wealth, bitcoin is a currency.

Fair enough, not fiat by definition. Still kinda of weird though, it's not backed by anything as far as I can see and while I do see the point of it being limited I'm not read up enough on the subject to say anything more. Gold is backed by itself, kind of. I guess that's true for this too but gold feels more solid then a bunch of numbers on a screen.

On March 26 2013 13:01 Zep wrote: How many countries are in Europe vs how many have had bailouts? And you think you're half right...lol. I predict that a country in the middle east will overthrow it's long-term fascist dictator in the next year...Is that really all that insightful?

27 member states, 17 (I think) has the Euro.

Greece got a new (third) bail out in 2012 a couple of months after my post.

Ireland got emergency loans from the European Union a year or two before my post.

Portugal got bailed out in 2011.

Around the time for my post Spain got bailed out for about €100 billion (can't take credit though, fairly sure this happened a week before my post). However, the ECB started its bond buying a couple of months after.

Now Cyprus is getting it. So at least 2 countries (Cyprus and Greece) got classic bail outs, that's a little more then 11% of the Euro-countries. If you count "just" bond buying Portugal and Spain can be added which would make this over 22%.

Counting the whole union 6 countries, according to: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_sovereign-debt_crisis, are receiving some kind of support from a bail out fund or similar. That's 6 out of 27 or just over 22%.

On March 26 2013 01:29 devon06atX wrote: Show nested quote + On March 25 2013 23:39 thewh00sel wrote: Good post. I think to a lot of people who are well read on the world economy as a whole the stuff you predicted might seem obvious. Regardless - still a very nice post - thanks for the read swedeman

Yeah, it was more a lead-in to my post and response to the other person who said all the stuff he predicted was obvious. I don't think it's obvious to the average person, and I think it's important that all this information becomes obvious to allow for change. I'm pessimistic on that front though.

Show nested quote + [B]On March 25 2013 11:18 NexusZero wrote: Will indeed add the book you recommended by Nigel Farage to my buy list. Always looking for something good to read. Just begun reading The Web Of Debt by Ellen Hodgson Brown. You should take a gander at the reviews and see if its something that might interest you. http://www.amazon.com/Web-Debt-Shocki...p;sr=8-1&keywords=THe+web+of+debt Booked seemed to touch on a bunch of subjects that's important. Did you learn a lot from it or is it just the same thing that the Austrians has been talking about a while?

In a sense yeah; except that she adds a lot more historical depth & perspective regarding the banking system and such while also touching upon gold and a few other aspects of economics. Learned lots from it at the time since it was kinda the beginning of my search into this topic. If you’ve researched banking etc. then you will know a lot of this. Due to the nature of the information provided it’s kind of like fusing The Secrets Of The Federal Reserve with The Shock Doctrine while sprinkling in other undertones.

Show nested quote + [B]On March 25 2013 11:18 NexusZero wrote: What do you think of Bitcoin and it making new highs and the Euro tanking at this moment? Its pretty easy to see that some people are searching for alternatives to fiat-paper currencies, especially when their being hijacked in broad daylight. Not sure, kind of like the idea but without being read up enough about it it seems a little bit unsafe. Also, as far as I know it's not backed by anything, so it seems like it's basically fiat money without a traditional central bank? Seems to be really high variance in it too and while that doesn't scare me for the most part I just haven't put enough time into understanding it.

It indeed seems analogous to fiat money except it seems decentralized. Am cautiously optimistic about it. Main concern regarding it is counter party risk and trying to stick to tangible assets makes it seem rather risky. My affinity to it stems from concerns regarding capital controls and being able to move money outside of the US if it seems the guillotine is about to drop. If this was two years back would probably dump some fiat into it but at this stage is a watch and learn as it goes process yah know?

Cool. Yea I think it might turn out ok too, but I'm not about to dumb any "money" into it in the near future.

all of these were pretty obvious advice to make at that time, also you exaggerated quite a bit and was wrong in most cases. so im sorry, no credit for being nostradamus from me :o(

sorry, didnt read all the previous comments, seems this has already been pointed out eh!