I am just a casual PLO player having played 125k hands in the past 2 1/2 years or so mostly at 50PLO. I want to play more and actually take a real shot at becoming good. Sessions like today are just mind-bogglingly frustrating. Stuck 6 buy-ins today and although my all-in EV was terrible I feel like for the first time in a long time I played very poorly regardless. Lots of small mistakes that added up over the course of the session + a couple high variance lines.
Anyways here is my All-in EV for the day as calculated for my winning and losing hands based on the percentage chance to win each hand at the point where all the money was put in the middle. Killahenri thinks he runs worse than me. It's hilarious because if I take all 125k hands I can almost guarantee I am between 30-40k below where I should be in terms of percentage to win the pot x money in the point at the point of All-in when it's just simple math. Today alone I'm stuck almost 12 buy-ins in All-in EV. Disgusting.
The Pacific aka Band of Brothers 2. Is finally here. The first episode aired last night on HBO and it was really good. If anyone on LP likes these kind of series this one is a must watch. It will probably be the best thing on television this year.
Canada and the USA just played one for the ages. It was a great back and forth game and I think each team had a 50/50 shot of winning. The two teams took turns carrying the play and it was a very even game. Although the Americans tied it up in the third it was the Canadians who hit the post twice, had a breakaway, and just overall the better quality chances in the final frame. The Canadians should have buried the game there but got it done regardless. In the overtime the Canadians corrected the mistakes made at the World Jr. Championships by controlling the play and creating loads of scoring chances chances without giving anything up.
Canada comes through in the clutch and once again reminds everyone who's game you're all playing! GO CANADA GO!
The Canadians really made that game far too close for comfort. In complete control for 50 minutes and then just simply not enough of a response when the Slovaks made their push. That being said they got the win. Really got the feeling as the game went on with Canada getting so many good chances that if they didn't bury the 4th or 5th goal it might come back to haunt them. A soft goal to get the Slovak comeback started and they really just turned it up. Canada tried to hang on instead of pushing back and almost regretted the mistake. Hopefully we won't see a repeat of that on Sunday.
Full marks to the Slovaks. Excellent speed, incredible defensive stick position all game long, and incredible defensive tenacity combined with blinding speed counter-attacks. They truly were all the Canadians could handle and then some. Ironically I would say Slovakia and the USA are very similar. Lots of speed a couple of very skilled guys sprinkled throughout the lineup plus a strong amount of speed and grit. One of the biggest similarities I notice between the two teams is the insanely active sticks in terms of getting in the passing lanes and second efforts. Really good job by the Slovaks and Americans of taking away the ice. Canada will have to be hard and fast on the puck in order to prevent giving up turnovers and losing battles the way they did in the last 10 minutes vs. the Slovaks.
The Americans haven't really been tested by a good team on their game since playing Canada. Hopefully the hard road will benefit the Canadians and we'll play our best game of the tournament when it counts the most. You know the Americans are going to be highly motivated with Salt Lake in the back of their minds. It's gonna be a dandy!
Team USA has sent a message stunning the Fins in a semi-final game they currently lead 6-0. Most people including myself felt this game would probably be a tight low scoring affair based on the Fins goaltender and defensive prowess but it's proved to be anything but. The fins haven't showed up very well but full marks to the Americans for simply overpowering them with speed, size, and skill. Miller has once again looked exceptional as he has all tournament long. He continues to prove he's the best in the world at his position.
If Canada beats Slovakia tonight I expect the Gold medal game to be a toss up 50/50 vs. the USA.
One distinct advantage the Americans will have is that they played 4/5 games at noon and Canada has played all of its games at 4:30PM. Routine can be big for these players and the Gold medal game will be played at noon which could really throw the Canadians off. Canada's depth is better but the Americans have more than enough pop to get the job done. Should be a great close game between both teams where anyone can win.
Also I'd like to say that team USA has made a statement in this tournament. They've got a lot of skill, size, and speed in their young forwards. These kids are really coming into their own. Most of all they've showed they have quite a bit more heart than the Russians or the Swedes who clearly have more skill. Team USA's desire to win at all costs is starting to rival that of the Canadians. Hopefully we'll have a lot of great games for years to come. I for one am hoping for a best of seven super-series during a summer at some point.
I still feel the Canadians are the stronger team overall but the goaltender position counts for everything in these one-game playoffs situation and there is no question that Miller has been a step above everyone at these Olympics. It's going to be a toss up but holy crap is it ever going to be exciting to watch!
Just as I predicted. The Americans struggled in their quarterfinal against a weaker but decently defensive Swiss team. It should be kept in mind that the Americans struggled to bury the Swiss even though the Swiss were forced to play a qualification game the night before.
The Canadians have just defeated the mighty Russians 7-3 even though we were forced to play the qualification game yesterday. In large part Canada won big because of a Russian roster spotted with only 11 healthy forwards and too many lousy players from the KHL. I expected a closer game because of how many snipers the Russians have but Canada simply dominated from the drop of the puck. Great game and a great effort all around.
Chance of Gold:
1. USA 40%
2. Canada 35%
3. Sweden 25%
USA remains the favorite for Gold because Canada and Sweden are forced to play each other. The Americans earned their excellent draw and have the easiest path to gold. I still expect the Americans to struggle in their semi-final. The physical beating Canada put on the USA clearly showed its toll in their game vs. the Swiss which should have been much more of a cakewalk than it was.
Go Canada Go! Awesome hockey being played in this tournament!
Edit: Shocking upset for Sweden changes everything. The draw is now wide open for Canada to walk to the Gold. I'm sure the Slovaks will bring a tough defensive game but they should be easily over-matched if Canada brings the A-Game. Really surprising and uninspired effort from Sweden. Although the Slovaks didn't have a lot of shots they created perhaps 1/2 or 3/4's the A-Quality scoring chances that Sweden did because they managed to earn 5 PP's and scored on two of them. Hard earned win.
Chance for Gold:
Canada 50%
USA 40%
Finland/Slovakia 5%
Well I'm sure Nolan is feeling overjoyed right now but I'd like to take a few moments on this blog to recap the game.
1. Miller was excellent. He is easily the best goalie in the NHL right now, and that's nothing new.
2. Brodeur was not very good. His scrambling style, stick flailing, pad stacking bullshit was atrocious to watch. He used to feel unbeatable now I feel nervous watching his poor play. Luongo should start from here in.
3. Canada badly outplayed the Americans and spent most of the game in the Americans end of the rink.
4. The officials were clearly afraid to give the Canadians PP's until the Americans put the game out of reach. How is it possible to out-shoot the opposition 30-15 through 40 minutes, out-chance them 19-6, play the entire game in their end of the rink, and only get one measly PP? My personal feeling is that with the tournament on Canada's home soil the officials are afraid of appearing biased and don't feel comfortable giving Canada PP's. It's looking like home field disadvantage as far as the officials doing their job properly.
5. I estimate based on the above. If the game was called properly Canada would have had 10-12 PP's to the American's 4.
6. It was very clear that the Americans had no answer for the strength and skill of the Canadian players when they keep the game simple and work the puck down low. Absolute dominance by Canada for 60 minutes.
7. The reality is that in a tournament like this it's one game playoffs and anybody can win if they get lucky. The Americans were absolutely dominated for 60 minutes tonight. In a 7 game series Canada would win easily. It's not close. As a Canadian fan my only anger is the play of Brodeur, Pronger, and Neidermayer. Seabrooke should be given more ice with Keith and Neidermayer should be the 7th guy because he's been downright awful on the defensive side of the puck.
8. The Americans are unlikely to make the finals, and if Canada consistently played the way they did tonight they're the favorite to win it all despite the Russians being so deep in skill.
9. Much will be made of the Canadians having to play 4 games in 6 days. The game against Germany should be a walk so the extra game won't be any excuse. It's nothing these guys aren't used too. On top of that with two extra bodies in the lineup and lower average on ice time for just about everybody there will be no excuse about the amount of games.
I think that about sums it up. Anybody else with any thoughts? TLDR ?
Well I was sick for a good 3 weeks, and then had tons of school work to do. Now I'm back to grinding but I haven't had the chance to grind up some of the entry fees for the SCOOP PLO tournaments.
So I'm making this post to ask if anyone felt like staking me/buying a significant amount of my action in the PLO215[1R+1A] 200k guaranteed. The link below is to my OPR stats. Not a large sample but I'm quite confident I'm a +EV investment in this tourney.
February was a pretty intense poker month for me. I moved up to PLO100 for the first time and played very well, and then very poorly to finish up only 5 or so buy-ins for the month. I do however expect to be able to establish myself and consistently win 50+ buy-ins per month at this limit and continue my trek up to the higher stakes. After analyzing my game it can be said that I have lots of room to improve and that my downswing in the past 15 days or so has been largely self-inflicted.
However I did manage to achieve some of my goals posted in that February goals thread a while back.
1. Establish myself as a PLO100 Regular [x]
2. FT the weekly PLO215 [x] (Took a 3-Way chop for a 4.75k Score)
3. Have my first ever 5K month [x]
All and all not a bad month and I look to re-double my dedication to this game and keep getting better. Good luck LP run good in March one time!
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