BIGGEST BLOG POST EVER!! - Page 2

Remember

- Getting good at poker is about learning and not winning.

- Many players emphasize winning only, and their game stagnates. They are quickly passed by players who are focused on learning and view winning as a nice side benefit.

- Learning will occur one step at a time.

* Each chapter will outline an important poker concept.

* Try to understand it before you move on to the next.

* They're building blocks, give them time and focus.

- When we're new to poker, we don't perceive information well. Things like:

* Hand ranges
* Game-flow
* The effect of image
* Player types
* Tendencies etc.

Are all lost to us

The point is:

- The more information a player gathers and uses, the better he is at poker.

- The less information a player gathers and uses, the worse he is.


The following chapters will focus on

* Ways to both gather and use information
* What to look for
* What it means
* And what to do in response

Each concept build upon the one before it, so Chapter One is the most important.

- There are only three reasons for betting, and we need to rely on them.

The two first:

1) Value. This is defined as betting to get called (or raised) by a worse hand.

Betting just because you probably have the best hand is NOT sufficent to bet for value.


2) Bluff. This is defined as betting to get a better hand to fold.

Betting just because you can't win any other way is NOT sufficent to bet as a bluff.


- They rely on mistakes our opponents make

* Either calling too much
* Folding too much

- Human nature to call too much. We're curious beings and we want to see what the other guy holds, what the turn card will be, whether or not we hit our flush on the river.

- People are inclined to make the mistake of calling too much than the mistake of folding too much.

- Therfor, reasons #1 for betting will dominate our bets.


* Value-betting is, was, and always will be the best way to make money.

- As a general rule of thumb, the lower the stakes, the more people love to call. (At micro, people call absurdly much.)

- At high stakes people will be good enough to avoid paying off your valuebets too often, thus #1 decreases in utility and reason #2 becomes more important.

(In general though, even at high stakes, regulars are more likely to make bad calls than bad folds.)


3) Capitalization of Dead Money. This is defined as making the opponent fold, whether his hand is better or worse, and collecting the money in the pot.

a) We make him fold his equity in the pot. On a A75 flop, where we hold KQ, if the opponent holds JT, his six-outer still has a strong amount of equity to draw out. Making him fold that equity share is good.

b) The dead money more than compensates for the times when we're called and lose.

- As games get more aggressive, more people are bluffing and putting money in with weaker hands. That equates to the presence of more dead money in the pot.

* In higher stakes, more aggressive games, you'll need to capitalize on dead money if you want to turn a profit.

- Additionally, reason #3 is rarely (possibly never) a primary reason for betting. Often times it is used as a complimentary reason for reasons #1 and #2


What about betting for information ?

- The real problem with betting for information occurs when someone bets a hand like KK on an A22 board.

(If he calls we're behind, if he folds we were ahead.)

- If we're betting for information instead o one of the three reasons, we're usually isolating ourselves with better hands and folding out worse hands.

* In short, we're making mistakes and our opponent isn't. And that's bad.

- So now we have the three reasons. Any time you're betting, ask yourself, "Why am I betting?" Once you realize that there are only three answers, poker will suddenly make a lot more sense.

- Choose hands that have good postflop equity

1) Suited cards: A lot of people don't see their true strength because they think like this "But we only flop a flush a small % of the time"

- Which is true, but if we think about it in equity:

- (A6s vs A6o on a 2 spade flop). The suited hand has 35% more equity, which is huge.

- On flops with one spade Q high we c-bet get called, a spade hits the turn. We can stay aggressive with 12 more outs.


2) High cards have great equity:
- Flop a pair, usually the best hand. And if we don't, our hand is good enough to show aggression with our 6 overcards.


3) Connecting cards:
Not as strong as high/suited cards.

- Advantages in straights, among the most disguised hands in poker.

* Disadvantage too if flush draw on the table, makes our straight tainted.


- In general
- A2s - A5s stronger than A6s - A9s.
- Hands like 76s really strong despite no high card value
- KJo really strong despite no suited value.


Agression comes with a lot of advantages:

- We win bigger pots with our strong hands

- We make our opponent fold the best hand

- We collect dead money constantly

- Makes us difficult for our opponent to read our hand

Now we have the cards that lets us stay aggressive, we move on to common spots where we have equity and want to keep applying pressure.

POT EQUITY + FOLD EQUITY = AGGRESSION

- High cards on turn increase our fold equity.

- Low cards usually lowers it.


- Some cards that give you flush draw on the turn gives you great pot equity, but if the board was connected 973T our fold equity decreases.


When to check-raise rather than 2nd barrel?

- Board texture is critical in understanding when to bet out and when to check-raise.

- If our opponent flat calls a wet board, his range generally doesn't include monster hands like sets, two pairs and straights.

- However, if our opponent calls a dry board (862 rainbow). Check raising the turn gets significantly worse.


Evaluating pot equity is easy:

- Nut flush usually has between 40-50% equity
- A gutshot has about 18% on the flop

Evaluating fold equity can be a lot more difficult.


Factors that affect our fold equity:

1)Player type. By far the most significant factor.

- Against a bad player (Whether passive-bad or aggressive-bad), our fold equity is greatly reduced, simply because they won't fold very much of anything.

- The response is easy - we have a wider value bet range, but we can't continue aggression with weak hands that rely on fold equity.


2) Board Texture:

- On a 983r flop, an A lands on the turn, our fold equity increase. If a T peels off instead it decreases.

- Overcards increase fold equity, but low cards and coordinating cards doesn't.


3) Number of players:

- If there are more hands in play, there are more cards that could've connected with the board, and thus our fold equity goes down.


4) Image and Perceived Hand Range:

- If we have a loose and bluffy history, our fold equity decreases. If we have a tight, solid history, our fold equity increases.

- This is because our perceived hand range becomes either weaker or stronger.


Sometimes, these reasons play against eachother. The board might be very scary on the turn when an Ace falls, but the player type is loose-passive and thus we shouldn't continue our aggression. Other times, we'll be in a multiway pot, but the board will be dry and they'll both be tight players, so we'll want to be aggressive.

It's the job of the poker player to balance these factors.

- For a while, the mantra for bet sizing was pot on the flop, 2/3 - 3/4 on the turn, and between 1/2 and 2/3 on the river.

* The assumption was, "a smaller would be called more often than a larger bet."
"don't want to scare him away."

This is dumb!!


- Most players make the decision whether or not to call, raise or fold based of two main considerations:

1) Their cards. Most players won't fold AA on a JT9 board when facing a ton of action because they've got aces - even though they're relatively unlikely to be ahead.


2) The board texture. QQ is likely to get a lot of money in as an overpair, but shuts down as soon as an A or a K falls.

The size of the bet facing them, in most scenarioes, is a distant, distant third.


- So when we are trying to get value, bet bigger.


- This Value Betting:

Means making a bet to be called by worse hands, accepting that many better hands will also call the bet and understanding that the value obtained from worse hands will be more than the money lost to better hands.

- The "thinner" the bet, the smaller your bet size should generally be.

- The idea is to retain the very worst end of his range.


Value betting is the way to beat poker

- The more value we can squeeze out of hands that are likely ahead, the more money we're going to make in the long run.

- Understanding how to change your value bet sizes depending on the "thinness" of your bet will help you get the maximum amount of value with your entire range.

- A lot of players make handreading out to be far more difficult than it really is.

- Focus on one simple question:
* Is he aggressive or passive?

- If he's passive, hand reading is a piece of cake. If he raises, he has an extremly strong hand.


- The things that are really important.

* Player Identification. (This you can look for which will quickly and easily tell you whether or not someone at your table is aggressive or passive.)

* These things include:

1) Stack size. If someone is sitting with less than a full buy-in at a table, and they're not a pro - shortstacker, they're usually passive.

2) Limping. This treng generally applies to their entire game, both preflop and postflop.

3) Minraising: While an aggressive act, this is generally an indicator of a passive player who finally has a big hand - especially when he minraises postflop.
Additionally, a lot of passive players will minraise a wide range preflop and then play passively postflop.

4) Number of tables. If someone is sitting on 6 tables with a full stack, probably aggressive.
If on 1 or 2 and have limped / minraised / or not kept a full stack, they are usually passive.

5) 3-betting. If someone 3-bets you often and consistently, they're usually aggressive.

If someone has only 3-bet you once or twice, made the 3-bet unusually small or large, they're usually passive.


There are only 3 types of players

1) Passive bad: This type of player calls all the time and only raises with an extremly strong hand. They're easy to beat - you just value bet them all the time and fold when they raise.
The most common type of bad player.

2) Aggressive bad: Also calls all the time, but they sometimes make raises or bets that are inconsisted with any kind of strong holding.

* Example, the flop donkbet on 863 board

- Unlikely a strong hand, since he'd likely check-raise

- When their line doesn't make sense, we can call light


3) Aggressive-good. Plays aggressively, bluffing in spots where they could show up with big hands, and value betting in spots where they could have bluffs. Balances ranges good. We'll talk about how to beat these later.


- Important to note that both passive-bad and aggressive-bad are likely to make big calls, and thus bluffing them is in general, a bad strategy.

- The plan for each type of bad player is simple

* Against a passive-bad player we value bet them and we don't make big calls.

* Against an aggressive player, we value bet them, and we do make big calls. Easy Game

Isolation: To raise preflop in order to play a pot with a particular player or players.

Isolation is predicated on three advantages:

1) Card advantage: When weak players are playing hands like J7o, we get a ton of value out of hands like JT, AJ, KJ, QJ etc.

- We can't isolate with any two cards, but we can start to think about widening our range as our player advantage increases.


2) Positional Advantage:

- Our cards have inherently more value.

- Easier to get money in when we have a good hand.

- Easier to apply pressure when we want to bluff.

- Easier to control the size of the pot with average to weak hands.

- Easier to hand read.


Thus, we should be very inclined to isolate with a wide range of hands on the button, as we have the highest amount of positional advantage possible.

3) Player advantage:

Our ability to make mistakes less often than our opponents, and to force our opponents into making mistakes, increases the value of our hand.

- The worse they are, the looser we can isolate.


The least important of all advantages is card advantage. Position comes in 2nd. But importantly, skill advantage is by far the most important advantage in isolation.

- So what hands do we isolate with?
Answered in the previous chapters. Cards with good equity, high cards and suited cards. And if you want to start loosening up, start adding hands like Q7s, K8s etc, but avoid cards like 75o.

- At a poker table, we use isolation to control who we play against and the circumstances under which the battles occur.

- What factors do we need to consider to understand table dynamics?

1) Player types. If you got a loose aggro type on your left, you need to play tighter because you'll get a lot of action.

If you have a big fish on your right, you should play looser because you want to play a lot of pots with him.

If you get a pro short-stacker on your left, usually tighter again because he'll shove over your raises.

So forth.....


2) Stack sizes. If there are a number of shorter stacks at thet able, hands like 33 and 67s go down in value. On the flip side, hands like KJ and AT increase in value, because they lose reverse implied odds, but decrease in value with deeper stacks.


3) Positions. Having a good regular on your left and a fish on your right is very different than having a good regular on your right and a fish on your left.


How can we use table dynamics postflop ?

Example:

UTG raises, and sees 5 callers in a full ring game. We call in the blinds with 55, flop comes J52. In this scenario, we always check to the raiser, hoping for him to bet and get several calls, allowing us to trap the entire field for an extra bet.

On the other hand, let's say utg and 5 other players limp, and the button raises. We call with 55 in the blinds, as do all limpers. Flop is J52 again, except this time, leading into the field is correct.

This is the essence of table dynamics postflop.

- We want to do whatever we can to keep the fish in the pot

- As soon as the fish limps, we need to do everything we can to play pots with him.

- To make the best decisions, understanding table dynamics is critical.

- If we're going to perfect our game, we need to think about every decision, even the small ones. More important than you think.

- We can raise to one of three sizes:

1) Pot: Good default in general, creates dead money c-bets and putting stacks in play more easily.

- PSR can sometimes be too large if people 3-betting us light or by having a pro-shortstacker behind.

- We should reduce our raise size if there are good players playing back at us to collect dead money.


2) Less than pot:

If 2 shortstacks in the blind minraise, if a good reg and a shortstacker maybe x2 or x2,5. If a pro-shortstacker and a bad player x3 etc.


3) More than pot: With very bad players we can raise x5, x6, x7 so forth.

- As we can see, raise sizes doesn't need to be static. Not exploitable, because you're not making your decisions based on hidden information.


Two of the three advantages of isolation theory coming back:

1) Skill advantage.
We raise larger when we're better than our opponents, simply because they'll be creating more dead money by playing against us and making more mistakes.

2) Positional advantage. We generally prefer to raise smaller when we're in position because having more money behind magnifies the effect of acting last.


We can't use card advantage as a reason to change our raise preflop, because that would give away information about our hand. Instead we'll substitute stack size in place of card advantage.


3) Stack size. The shorter the stack size, the smaller we want to raise. The larger the stack the larger we want to raise, Easy Game.

- In any given spot we're trying to obtain between 0 streets and 3 + streets of value.

- However, that desired value changes street to street. Therfor, we need to be aware of two different types of value:

1) Static Value: This refers to the amount of value that we want on any given action. Thus, preflop with AA, we want 3+ streets of value.

If we have A2 on AQJ board, we may decide we want 1 street.


2) Dynamic value. This refers to the way that desired value changes throughout the course of a hand.

The ability to reevaluate value is what seperates good players from bad players and prevents us from becoming "married" to a weak hand.


- If you're thinking about how pot size changes, you can structure your bets on each street in order to maximize value by the river.

- Most small stakes players struggle most with this concept. They don't bet big enough on any street and then are left on the river with a pot that's too small to get stacks in.

- Fixing this problem will probably double your win-rate. (Double your bet-size, double your winrate.)

- The classic KK on an A22 flop, if we bet, get called, we're probably behind, if he fold, we might lose value.

- A portion of his hand range contains an Ace, but the portion is far overshadowed by hands like QJ, 76s, 88, and many, many others.

- Once the flop comes down A22, a small portion of his range has improved to beat us, but the majority of his range is still far, far behind.

So if we bet, we isolate ourselves with hands that beat us. If we check, we continue to play against a wider range - and a range we're ahead of.


When should I check behind?

1) You're unlikely to get called by a worse hand (or make a better hand fold).

2) You're unlikely to be outdrawn.


When should I bet?

1) You're likely to get called by a worse hand. (You're still probably unlikely to make a better hand fold).

2) You're likely to be outdrawn.


- If you can't justify a bet with one of the three reasons, you should probably cehck behind. If you want to slowplay with AA on an A22 board, that's fine, but it's pretty bad on an AQJ two clubs board.

- But, in general, if you think you can get called by worse, go ahead and make that bet.

- This is addressing showndown theory on it's most basic level.

- Monotone boards are tricky, our opponents will have a lot of pair + draw hands that will call our value bets.

- Our value bets are inherently thinner.

- A raise on a monotone board usually means an extremely strong hand.

- People don't really bluff these boards, because they're way too likely to have smashed the preflop raiser equity-wise.

- So, monotone boards are good places to make tough folds. (And not good places to make bluffs, because most good players won't be as good as we are making those tough folds.)

- The idea is relatively simple - whether or not you make the correct decision, i.e if you put in 100 dollars at 20% to win, you win a theoretical 20 dollars "Sklanszky buck".

- Galfond's idea, though, was that even if you get the money in at 20% to win, if you're 60% to win against his range, you actually win 60 dollars in the long - term, even though the result of the hand led you to a 20 dollar expectation.

I don't care for full ring, so just writing down the summary.

- Full-ring play isn't too much different from 6-max play. The existence of three extra players is usually irrelevant, as palyers play extremly tight from those positions and, when they fold, we're just playing 6-max anyway.

- The significant difference is one of context - the tighter context of a full ring game means that we play back more tightly to aggression.

- But also that we open our game more widely until we face aggression back at us.

- As a general rule of thumb, you never want to cold call a 3B oop if both players are 100BB deep in a small stakes game.

* People 3-betting rangse are tighter than we want to believe.

* Our equity with a hand like TT is much worse than we want to believe. (Vs QJ even, we're flipping.)

- If one of the blinds call, we have the correct ods to call with a pair and hope to hit a set.


What about 3-bets in position?

1) Peoples ranges are tighter than we want to believe here as well. Still have to play tightly in general unless somebody begins to 3-bet us noticeably too often.

2) Low cards are bad in 3-bet pots


- Being in position means taht we can call 3-bets, as opposed to being oop where we can't.

- Essentially we can defend with high cards and pairs. How low we can go depends on how lightly somebody is 3-betting us.

(If he can do it with 67s, we start to defend with 77+ and higher etc.)

- In short, ranges for 3-betting in small stakes games are usually significantly tight.

What's been outlined so far is what many would call an A-B-C game.

It preaches two key components of beating small stakes games.

1) Getting Value
2) Not paying off

Here's an anecdote to memorize:

People are bluffing you less often than you think. Take to heart, and remember that passive players will call often their whole stack with weak hands, but they won't raise without the nuts.

So make disiplined folds and maximize your value bets.