shove combo draw on turn? - Page 2

On March 12 2010 05:03 rozyboy wrote: well I shipped it, Villain showed Ad7d, for a pair and a FD. river was a blank and I lost the hand. it got me to think- if I would have just called the turn, he might have checked a blank river and allow me to bluff shove (although I doubt I would actually go for it). what do you guys think about this thought process?

I think most of the time he ships or check/calls river whatever rolls out so I don't necessarily think a bluff shove would be good on a blank river here I think you're overthinking and looking at ways as to how you could possibly have won the hand lol

So lets be clear, when you're calling the turn in general here w/out a stellar read you're doing it for the implied odds you have on the river, as the vast majority of the time you're going to get paid on the river here.

The push on the turn is if you think his range is wide enough and you think he might pass enough of the time to make it more profitable than the call..

As I said you might have to do some maths.



You stated that you coulda won the pot if you just called the turn and he checked and you could bluff shove.. HOWEVER I believe the fact that he cr'd the flop and barrelled the turn with his combo draw he's practically always just putting it in on the river anyway, so to ease your mind i'm pretty sure if you did just call the turn he'd have put it on the river and you'd have passed anyway.

call turn, hes not folding if we shove so we are drawing
shoving can be fine but in that spot flatting is better imo
shove river if checked to, fold if he bet and you miss
and you know what to do if you hit striahgt or flush
;oP

On March 12 2010 08:36 KeyleK_uk wrote: Show nested quote + On March 12 2010 05:03 rozyboy wrote: well I shipped it, Villain showed Ad7d, for a pair and a FD. river was a blank and I lost the hand. it got me to think- if I would have just called the turn, he might have checked a blank river and allow me to bluff shove (although I doubt I would actually go for it). what do you guys think about this thought process? I think most of the time he ships or check/calls river whatever rolls out so I don't necessarily think a bluff shove would be good on a blank river here I think you're overthinking and looking at ways as to how you could possibly have won the hand lol You stated that you coulda won the pot if you just called the turn and he checked and you could bluff shove.. HOWEVER I believe the fact that he cr'd the flop and barrelled the turn with his combo draw he's practically always just putting it in on the river anyway, so to ease your mind i'm pretty sure if you did just call the turn he'd have put it on the river and you'd have passed anyway.

first of all thanks, I really like ur comments, this thought process is why I posted this hand (though u were a bit too harsh on the other guy imo).

ur explanation does have one leak imo:
if ur saying he just shoves river most of the time, in this specific hand, we lose a lot of value if a Q or a 10 comes on river and we just fold to a shove.
that's 4 outs (not counting Qd and Td), and that's alot of equity we're missing.
we still need him to fold to our turn shove 33% of the time for it to be better EV than calling, but we lose like 10% by flatting, and also we might not get paid sometimes on river (I agree he shoves most rivers, but u can never really know).

god this is so close, I guess there just isn't a significantly supirior play here...

I don't think Q or T are outs here...

call vs nits
shove vs agro

On March 12 2010 10:33 rozyboy wrote: Show nested quote + On March 12 2010 08:36 KeyleK_uk wrote:   On March 12 2010 05:03 rozyboy wrote: well I shipped it, Villain showed Ad7d, for a pair and a FD. river was a blank and I lost the hand. it got me to think- if I would have just called the turn, he might have checked a blank river and allow me to bluff shove (although I doubt I would actually go for it). what do you guys think about this thought process? I think most of the time he ships or check/calls river whatever rolls out so I don't necessarily think a bluff shove would be good on a blank river here I think you're overthinking and looking at ways as to how you could possibly have won the hand lol You stated that you coulda won the pot if you just called the turn and he checked and you could bluff shove.. HOWEVER I believe the fact that he cr'd the flop and barrelled the turn with his combo draw he's practically always just putting it in on the river anyway, so to ease your mind i'm pretty sure if you did just call the turn he'd have put it on the river and you'd have passed anyway. first of all thanks, I really like ur comments, this thought process is why I posted this hand (though u were a bit too harsh on the other guy imo). ur explanation does have one leak imo: if ur saying he just shoves river most of the time, in this specific hand, we lose a lot of value if a Q or a 10 comes on river and we just fold to a shove. that's 4 outs (not counting Qd and Td), and that's alot of equity we're missing. we still need him to fold to our turn shove 33% of the time for it to be better EV than calling, but we lose like 10% by flatting, and also we might not get paid sometimes on river (I agree he shoves most rivers, but u can never really know). god this is so close, I guess there just isn't a significantly supirior play here...

I don't think we really lose any value folding to a shove on the river if we make a Q or a T, yes in his specific hand you do, but I think you just have to fold if he ships, you're not good the 25% required to make a crying call on the river with those pairs, not by a long shot imo.

Yes I was harsh to the other guy, but for his own good, he has to realise how fundamentally flawed his reasoning is there...
Whether to shove the river and it bricks and he checks... I think thats close, I don't think you should call if you pair up.

Ya exactly we need him to fold too much to the turn jam for it to be profitable at these stakes so I think heros)engage summed it all up pretty well earlier, the only decision is whether to shove a brick river or not if he checks I think...

we have to shove a brick on the river if he check to
we wont win by checking behind
we have no FE on the turn
we have FE if he check river
lets shove when we have FE ?

On March 12 2010 13:03 HeRoS)eNGagE wrote: we have to shove a brick on the river if he check to we wont win by checking behind we have no FE on the turn we have FE if he check river lets shove when we have FE ?

exactly.
and KEYLEK, you are right- we CAN'T call if a Q or a ten comes on the river. that's why this is value we lose by just flatting instead of shoving. this kinda evens out the FE we lose by shoving that Heros)engage is talking about. that's why I think it is a close one...

We dont necessarily have FE on the river just because he checks. I really hate the idea that "you cant win if you check!" logic. Sometimes you just ARENT going to win no matter what.

On March 12 2010 14:35 rozyboy wrote: Show nested quote + On March 12 2010 13:03 HeRoS)eNGagE wrote: we have to shove a brick on the river if he check to we wont win by checking behind we have no FE on the turn we have FE if he check river lets shove when we have FE ? exactly. and KEYLEK, you are right- we CAN'T call if a Q or a ten comes on the river. that's why this is value we lose by just flatting instead of shoving. this kinda evens out the FE we lose by shoving that Heros)engage is talking about. that's why I think it is a close one...

lol how is that value you lose? if he shoves the river your Q/T outs are not good.

lol internets. I thought I was being quite reasonable with my post

Reading a bit further I suppose calling for implied odds can be good. You'd just have to do the math to see if calling that monstrous turn bet is actually worth it. To any good reg, by not shoving the turn he'd get pretty suspicious especialy in an aggressive dynamic.

The thing about not going further with this hand is that implied odds are there. But so are reverse implied odds. Villain's combo draws might have a hold of many of your outs such as 9d, Ad. WHen he has KJ or 77 you have to make a non-club K or J. Theres so many ways for you to get reverse-fucked that your equity is probably closer to 25% on turn.

So when the decision to proceed has clearly been put on you, let the math speak for itself.

On March 12 2010 15:36 vegable wrote: lol internets. I thought I was being quite reasonable with my post Reading a bit further I suppose calling for implied odds can be good. You'd just have to do the math to see if calling that monstrous turn bet is actually worth it. To any good reg, by not shoving the turn he'd get pretty suspicious especialy in an aggressive dynamic. The thing about not going further with this hand is that implied odds are there. But so are reverse implied odds. Villain's combo draws might have a hold of many of your outs such as 9d, Ad. WHen he has KJ or 77 you have to make a non-club K or J. Theres so many ways for you to get reverse-fucked that your equity is probably closer to 25% on turn. So when the decision to proceed has clearly been put on you, let the math speak for itself.

no not really

On March 12 2010 13:03 HeRoS)eNGagE wrote: we have to shove a brick on the river if he check to we wont win by checking behind we have no FE on the turn we have FE if he check river lets shove when we have FE ?

I don't think we have to shove a brick river cos i think if the opponent is relatively good and has a top pair/2p type hand he might well try to check to get us to shove our missed draws or w/e. This is where experience and reads come into it.

And Vegable, he may be suspicious when the straight/clubs hit on the end but that doesnt mean he's not going to shove/chk/call his good hands cos he is. Maybe you never ship this river if checked to without a flush or a straight (assuming it hits) But I guarantee you most players at nl50 don't play like (cos they're impatient and want to win the pot) that and if he has any type of 2p/set he's putting his money in on the river, AND i think he'd be correct to do so, so implied odds are definately there. Yes often he has an Ace, or a nine, or even a club but thats not gonna make that much difference trust me, say he has one of those half the time, thats 1% less equity we have in the pot.

ok I think this hand has been talked about plenty lol

On March 12 2010 14:57 NewbSaibot wrote: We dont necessarily have FE on the river just because he checks. I really hate the idea that "you cant win if you check!" logic. Sometimes you just ARENT going to win no matter what.

who check raise flop bet turn and check river???
you check raise a set on flop bet turn check call river?
youc heck raise the nut bet turn check blank river?????

On March 13 2010 10:34 KeyleK_uk wrote: Show nested quote + On March 12 2010 13:03 HeRoS)eNGagE wrote: we have to shove a brick on the river if he check to we wont win by checking behind we have no FE on the turn we have FE if he check river lets shove when we have FE ? I don't think we have to shove a brick river cos i think if the opponent is relatively good and has a top pair/2p type hand he might well try to check to get us to shove our missed draws or w/e. This is where experience and reads come into it.

well its depend of the vilain obv, like always ;oP

On March 13 2010 10:57 HeRoS)eNGagE wrote: Show nested quote + On March 12 2010 14:57 NewbSaibot wrote: We dont necessarily have FE on the river just because he checks. I really hate the idea that "you cant win if you check!" logic. Sometimes you just ARENT going to win no matter what. who check raise flop bet turn and check river??? you check raise a set on flop bet turn check call river? youc heck raise the nut bet turn check blank river?????

People level themselves into calling/making odds moves all the time. They overplay TP types hands, or turn their showdown value into a bluff b/c they dont want to see a river, but then call anyway just to see how bad they run. It goes on and on. I'm just saying I rarely give anyone the credibility to fold after the turn, at least at these stakes.