shove combo draw on turn?

Villain is 33/18, we did have some agressive dynamic on previous hands.

Submitted by : rozyboy

PokerStars Game #41024605524: Holdem No Limit ($0.25/$0.50 USD) - 2010/03/12 2:44:50 EET [2010/03/11 19:44:50 ET]
Table Triglav IV 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: wanillo25 ($132.15 in chips)
Seat 2: Hero ($50 in chips)
Seat 3: blego151 ($63.80 in chips)
Seat 4: Hermaion ($225.25 in chips)
Seat 5: LS773 ($48.25 in chips)
blego151: posts small blind $0.25
Hermaion: posts big blind $0.50

Holecards
Dealt to Hero
LS773: folds
wanillo25: folds
Hero: raises $1 to $1.50
blego151: folds
Hermaion: calls $1

Flop (Pot : $3.25)

   
Hermaion: checks
Hero: bets $2
Hermaion: raises $6 to $8
Hero: calls $6

Turn (Pot : $19.25)

   
Hermaion: bets $15.50

call seems bad, 15 outs seems a little optimistic. not sure what the right play is though.

if u think he mighta been v.light on the flop a ships fine, but a call at least is mandatory here, you can't expect him not to go broke on any river practically.

How does 15 outs seem optimistic? (oh maybe 14 cos he's got one of our cards)

The raise just well... its ok i prefer it to folding definately, its tough to say if its the best play or not cos I don't know how often he's folding to the ship, but he doesnt have to fold very often for it to be the best play (if that makes any sense) I think call >> raise here though

i doubt you have any fold equity and he will probably stack off river with this line so.. call?

if you've got an aggressive dynamic with this kid wouldnt he be 3betting JJ/AK/KK/AA pre? His line is probably 77 , KJ , 910dd or a LOT of combo draws.

Calling here is pretty bad because you'll look absolutely retarded on a blank river, plus your hand is face up as a medium hand by then. To be honest I'd probably fold turn .versus a strong range, that 8 probably brings what, 30% to equity? Bottom line is you should know exactly what to do BEFOREclicking the call button on flop.

call and shove are both 100% fine here, i say this many times, but theres no wrong way to play hands like this

On March 11 2010 23:57 vegable wrote: if you've got an aggressive dynamic with this kid wouldnt he be 3betting JJ/AK/KK/AA pre? His line is probably 77 , KJ , 910dd or a LOT of combo draws. Calling here is pretty bad because you'll look absolutely retarded on a blank river, plus your hand is face up as a medium hand by then. To be honest I'd probably fold turn .versus a strong range, that 8 probably brings what, 30% to equity? Bottom line is you should know exactly what to do BEFOREclicking the call button on flop.

on that note, there is 1 wrong way to play the hand, and that is folding... NEVER fold here. If you fold here, it bascially means you have absolutley no concept of the mathematics of poker. I would highly recommend learning some simple / common EV spots, cause that's a very significant thing that occurs several times per session

oh hellz yes clear jam if for nothing else than da lulz

wut a delicious draw

wow after running this on stove i can't believe I guesstimated our equity so closely :D

I say calling in this situation versus an aggro player is bad because he can't be barreling and expecting you to fold after you proceed with the turn. With a 450bb stack you'd think he knows a thing or two? Yes, if you're going to play this shove the turn or fold. I'm leaning toward fold because a majority of the time you're shoving into a polarized range thats mostly weighted toward nutter butters. You'd be coinflipping between HIS combo draws and way behind the rest of the time. Most players at this stake are NOT playing hands weaker than yours this aggressively often enough, and definitely not pure bluffing. You're playing into his over aggressive game scheme like a puppet. But, clearly, it is up to you to choose. Just in my personal experience, I've just found that shoving here loses me more money than I need to.

On March 11 2010 23:57 vegable wrote: Calling here is pretty bad because you'll look absolutely retarded on a blank river, plus your hand is face up as a medium hand by then.

what's so retarded about hitting the nuts and getting paid/checking back air cuz we have no fold equity?

you may have calculated your equity correctly but you still ended up with the wrong answer. we call 15 to win the pot plus the rest of his stack which is $60 total. we're getting 3:1 implied and our equity is 2.3:1 (we need 25% pot equity to break even but we have 30%), thus we should never be folding here.

On March 12 2010 01:53 vegable wrote: With a 450bb stack you'd think he knows a thing or two?

lol what

i generally shove here just because i see folds sometimes lol results oriented!!!!!!!!!!

On March 12 2010 01:53 vegable wrote: a majority of the time you're shoving into a polarized range thats mostly weighted toward nutter butters.....Most players at this stake are NOT playing hands weaker than yours this aggressively often enough, and definitely not pure bluffing

So then wouldnt calling and hitting on the river result in a nice payoff?

You'd be coinflipping between HIS combo draws and way behind the rest of the time.

What combo draws are you worried that he has here?

well I shipped it, Villain showed Ad7d, for a pair and a FD. river was a blank and I lost the hand.
it got me to think- if I would have just called the turn, he might have checked a blank river and allow me to bluff shove (although I doubt I would actually go for it).
what do you guys think about this thought process?

also if I just missed and he shoves I lose 25$ less on river.
so isn't flatting slightly better?

huh

when u get in these spots nobody is folding anything ever what planet r u from?

On March 12 2010 05:06 rozyboy wrote: also if I just missed and he shoves I lose 25$ less on river. so isn't flatting slightly better?

issue being that he may very well have a marginal draw heavy hand as well. also, a lot of hands that he could have here he wouldn't get it in on a river when u hit your draw.

On March 12 2010 01:53 vegable wrote: wow after running this on stove i can't believe I guesstimated our equity so closely :D I say calling in this situation versus an aggro player is bad because he can't be barreling and expecting you to fold after you proceed with the turn. With a 450bb stack you'd think he knows a thing or two? Yes, if you're going to play this shove the turn or fold. I'm leaning toward fold because a majority of the time you're shoving into a polarized range thats mostly weighted toward nutter butters. You'd be coinflipping between HIS combo draws and way behind the rest of the time. Most players at this stake are NOT playing hands weaker than yours this aggressively often enough, and definitely not pure bluffing. You're playing into his over aggressive game scheme like a puppet. But, clearly, it is up to you to choose. Just in my personal experience, I've just found that shoving here loses me more money than I need to.

Wow, I don't normally say aynthing harsh but you're an idiot.

I think here w/out reeds call>shove>fold

"With a 450bb stack he knows a thing or two?" LOL this is 25c/50c. We're drawing to the nuts (practically) both ways, so what, if a club hits he's gonna think "oh the club hit, I've got a 450 bb stack and am obviously very clever so realise he must have a club so wont continue my value/bluff"

"You're playing into his overaggressive game scheme like a puppet" What a troll, I imagine you don't know anything about poker, and if indeed you are the guy who I played 5/10 hu with occasionally back on ongame with I think the same name then if I remember correctly then you did indeed know nothing about poker.

"I say calling in this situation versus an aggro player is bad because he can't be barreling and expecting you to fold after you proceed with the turn. With a 450bb stack you'd think he knows a thing or two?" - What, so he's never going to push 2 pairs/sets on the river when we hit our card, and going to check fold giving us no implied odds? I don't think so... If so, why not just call and then shove any club/diamond/straight/Backdoor anything draw because he has a 450bb stack he knows we're gonna have a draw and is going to fold - lol.

Your post was one of the most retarded I've ever seen, not because it was wrong because everyone makes mistakes but you felt compelled to sound smug and superior when everything you say is absolute bs.

AND LOL to your first post where you narrowed his range down to 3 hands with the following info - he called preflop, c/r'd the flop and bet the turn. You're an expert obv.

On March 12 2010 05:06 rozyboy wrote: also if I just missed and he shoves I lose 25$ less on river. so isn't flatting slightly better?

Yes, but if he's bluffing or has a weak hand and does find a pass on the turn a very small percentage of the time it'll show an overall profit greater than calling and getting it in when we hit. Not going to do the maths now but I'm sure you can manage it.

The issue here is how often is he passing to our re-ship on the turn and I can't say for certain (obviously lol) But I have a suspicion it's probably going to be less than is necessary for this ship to be more profitable than the call here.

As the stakes increase and the opponents get more tricky and less willing to stack off (cos its like 600 bucks instead of 50) the push on the turn becomes better and better, I think in this spot he practically only releases a stone cold bluff or real weak holdings so I think its close but as I said a few times already I think I lean towards the call.

On March 12 2010 05:03 rozyboy wrote: well I shipped it, Villain showed Ad7d, for a pair and a FD. river was a blank and I lost the hand. it got me to think- if I would have just called the turn, he might have checked a blank river and allow me to bluff shove (although I doubt I would actually go for it). what do you guys think about this thought process?

I think most of the time he ships or check/calls river whatever rolls out so I don't necessarily think a bluff shove would be good on a blank river here I think you're overthinking and looking at ways as to how you could possibly have won the hand lol

So lets be clear, when you're calling the turn in general here w/out a stellar read you're doing it for the implied odds you have on the river, as the vast majority of the time you're going to get paid on the river here.

The push on the turn is if you think his range is wide enough and you think he might pass enough of the time to make it more profitable than the call..

As I said you might have to do some maths.



You stated that you coulda won the pot if you just called the turn and he checked and you could bluff shove.. HOWEVER I believe the fact that he cr'd the flop and barrelled the turn with his combo draw he's practically always just putting it in on the river anyway, so to ease your mind i'm pretty sure if you did just call the turn he'd have put it on the river and you'd have passed anyway.

call turn, hes not folding if we shove so we are drawing
shoving can be fine but in that spot flatting is better imo
shove river if checked to, fold if he bet and you miss
and you know what to do if you hit striahgt or flush
;oP

On March 12 2010 08:36 KeyleK_uk wrote: Show nested quote + On March 12 2010 05:03 rozyboy wrote: well I shipped it, Villain showed Ad7d, for a pair and a FD. river was a blank and I lost the hand. it got me to think- if I would have just called the turn, he might have checked a blank river and allow me to bluff shove (although I doubt I would actually go for it). what do you guys think about this thought process? I think most of the time he ships or check/calls river whatever rolls out so I don't necessarily think a bluff shove would be good on a blank river here I think you're overthinking and looking at ways as to how you could possibly have won the hand lol You stated that you coulda won the pot if you just called the turn and he checked and you could bluff shove.. HOWEVER I believe the fact that he cr'd the flop and barrelled the turn with his combo draw he's practically always just putting it in on the river anyway, so to ease your mind i'm pretty sure if you did just call the turn he'd have put it on the river and you'd have passed anyway.

first of all thanks, I really like ur comments, this thought process is why I posted this hand (though u were a bit too harsh on the other guy imo).

ur explanation does have one leak imo:
if ur saying he just shoves river most of the time, in this specific hand, we lose a lot of value if a Q or a 10 comes on river and we just fold to a shove.
that's 4 outs (not counting Qd and Td), and that's alot of equity we're missing.
we still need him to fold to our turn shove 33% of the time for it to be better EV than calling, but we lose like 10% by flatting, and also we might not get paid sometimes on river (I agree he shoves most rivers, but u can never really know).

god this is so close, I guess there just isn't a significantly supirior play here...

I don't think Q or T are outs here...

call vs nits
shove vs agro

On March 12 2010 10:33 rozyboy wrote: Show nested quote + On March 12 2010 08:36 KeyleK_uk wrote:   On March 12 2010 05:03 rozyboy wrote: well I shipped it, Villain showed Ad7d, for a pair and a FD. river was a blank and I lost the hand. it got me to think- if I would have just called the turn, he might have checked a blank river and allow me to bluff shove (although I doubt I would actually go for it). what do you guys think about this thought process? I think most of the time he ships or check/calls river whatever rolls out so I don't necessarily think a bluff shove would be good on a blank river here I think you're overthinking and looking at ways as to how you could possibly have won the hand lol You stated that you coulda won the pot if you just called the turn and he checked and you could bluff shove.. HOWEVER I believe the fact that he cr'd the flop and barrelled the turn with his combo draw he's practically always just putting it in on the river anyway, so to ease your mind i'm pretty sure if you did just call the turn he'd have put it on the river and you'd have passed anyway. first of all thanks, I really like ur comments, this thought process is why I posted this hand (though u were a bit too harsh on the other guy imo). ur explanation does have one leak imo: if ur saying he just shoves river most of the time, in this specific hand, we lose a lot of value if a Q or a 10 comes on river and we just fold to a shove. that's 4 outs (not counting Qd and Td), and that's alot of equity we're missing. we still need him to fold to our turn shove 33% of the time for it to be better EV than calling, but we lose like 10% by flatting, and also we might not get paid sometimes on river (I agree he shoves most rivers, but u can never really know). god this is so close, I guess there just isn't a significantly supirior play here...

I don't think we really lose any value folding to a shove on the river if we make a Q or a T, yes in his specific hand you do, but I think you just have to fold if he ships, you're not good the 25% required to make a crying call on the river with those pairs, not by a long shot imo.

Yes I was harsh to the other guy, but for his own good, he has to realise how fundamentally flawed his reasoning is there...
Whether to shove the river and it bricks and he checks... I think thats close, I don't think you should call if you pair up.

Ya exactly we need him to fold too much to the turn jam for it to be profitable at these stakes so I think heros)engage summed it all up pretty well earlier, the only decision is whether to shove a brick river or not if he checks I think...

we have to shove a brick on the river if he check to
we wont win by checking behind
we have no FE on the turn
we have FE if he check river
lets shove when we have FE ?

On March 12 2010 13:03 HeRoS)eNGagE wrote: we have to shove a brick on the river if he check to we wont win by checking behind we have no FE on the turn we have FE if he check river lets shove when we have FE ?

exactly.
and KEYLEK, you are right- we CAN'T call if a Q or a ten comes on the river. that's why this is value we lose by just flatting instead of shoving. this kinda evens out the FE we lose by shoving that Heros)engage is talking about. that's why I think it is a close one...

We dont necessarily have FE on the river just because he checks. I really hate the idea that "you cant win if you check!" logic. Sometimes you just ARENT going to win no matter what.

On March 12 2010 14:35 rozyboy wrote: Show nested quote + On March 12 2010 13:03 HeRoS)eNGagE wrote: we have to shove a brick on the river if he check to we wont win by checking behind we have no FE on the turn we have FE if he check river lets shove when we have FE ? exactly. and KEYLEK, you are right- we CAN'T call if a Q or a ten comes on the river. that's why this is value we lose by just flatting instead of shoving. this kinda evens out the FE we lose by shoving that Heros)engage is talking about. that's why I think it is a close one...

lol how is that value you lose? if he shoves the river your Q/T outs are not good.

lol internets. I thought I was being quite reasonable with my post

Reading a bit further I suppose calling for implied odds can be good. You'd just have to do the math to see if calling that monstrous turn bet is actually worth it. To any good reg, by not shoving the turn he'd get pretty suspicious especialy in an aggressive dynamic.

The thing about not going further with this hand is that implied odds are there. But so are reverse implied odds. Villain's combo draws might have a hold of many of your outs such as 9d, Ad. WHen he has KJ or 77 you have to make a non-club K or J. Theres so many ways for you to get reverse-fucked that your equity is probably closer to 25% on turn.

So when the decision to proceed has clearly been put on you, let the math speak for itself.

On March 12 2010 15:36 vegable wrote: lol internets. I thought I was being quite reasonable with my post Reading a bit further I suppose calling for implied odds can be good. You'd just have to do the math to see if calling that monstrous turn bet is actually worth it. To any good reg, by not shoving the turn he'd get pretty suspicious especialy in an aggressive dynamic. The thing about not going further with this hand is that implied odds are there. But so are reverse implied odds. Villain's combo draws might have a hold of many of your outs such as 9d, Ad. WHen he has KJ or 77 you have to make a non-club K or J. Theres so many ways for you to get reverse-fucked that your equity is probably closer to 25% on turn. So when the decision to proceed has clearly been put on you, let the math speak for itself.

no not really

On March 12 2010 13:03 HeRoS)eNGagE wrote: we have to shove a brick on the river if he check to we wont win by checking behind we have no FE on the turn we have FE if he check river lets shove when we have FE ?

I don't think we have to shove a brick river cos i think if the opponent is relatively good and has a top pair/2p type hand he might well try to check to get us to shove our missed draws or w/e. This is where experience and reads come into it.

And Vegable, he may be suspicious when the straight/clubs hit on the end but that doesnt mean he's not going to shove/chk/call his good hands cos he is. Maybe you never ship this river if checked to without a flush or a straight (assuming it hits) But I guarantee you most players at nl50 don't play like (cos they're impatient and want to win the pot) that and if he has any type of 2p/set he's putting his money in on the river, AND i think he'd be correct to do so, so implied odds are definately there. Yes often he has an Ace, or a nine, or even a club but thats not gonna make that much difference trust me, say he has one of those half the time, thats 1% less equity we have in the pot.

ok I think this hand has been talked about plenty lol

On March 12 2010 14:57 NewbSaibot wrote: We dont necessarily have FE on the river just because he checks. I really hate the idea that "you cant win if you check!" logic. Sometimes you just ARENT going to win no matter what.

who check raise flop bet turn and check river???
you check raise a set on flop bet turn check call river?
youc heck raise the nut bet turn check blank river?????

On March 13 2010 10:34 KeyleK_uk wrote: Show nested quote + On March 12 2010 13:03 HeRoS)eNGagE wrote: we have to shove a brick on the river if he check to we wont win by checking behind we have no FE on the turn we have FE if he check river lets shove when we have FE ? I don't think we have to shove a brick river cos i think if the opponent is relatively good and has a top pair/2p type hand he might well try to check to get us to shove our missed draws or w/e. This is where experience and reads come into it.

well its depend of the vilain obv, like always ;oP

On March 13 2010 10:57 HeRoS)eNGagE wrote: Show nested quote + On March 12 2010 14:57 NewbSaibot wrote: We dont necessarily have FE on the river just because he checks. I really hate the idea that "you cant win if you check!" logic. Sometimes you just ARENT going to win no matter what. who check raise flop bet turn and check river??? you check raise a set on flop bet turn check call river? youc heck raise the nut bet turn check blank river?????

People level themselves into calling/making odds moves all the time. They overplay TP types hands, or turn their showdown value into a bluff b/c they dont want to see a river, but then call anyway just to see how bad they run. It goes on and on. I'm just saying I rarely give anyone the credibility to fold after the turn, at least at these stakes.