NL100 - trips on river, overbet?

hello again. villain seems to be a kind of solid reg. we have some history: earlier in the session he called down flop+turn oop with KJ on K733 150bb deep in a 3-bet pot (i had A7o).

is this a good spot for an overbet shove?

Submitted by : cantonaa

** Spel-ID 3124437261 starting - 2010-02-02 16:30:00
** Amazon kingfisher 2 [Holdem] (0.50|1 NL - Cash Game) Real Money
AriesMu sitting in seat 1 with €121.10
check_lol sitting in seat 2 with €151.91
amateur_3 sitting in seat 3 with €103.00[Sit Out]
sizuma sitting in seat 4 with €100.00
Hero sitting in seat 5 with €107.13
mr-magic sitting in seat 6 with €20.00[Dealer]
AriesMu lade lilla mörken - €0.50
check_lol lade stora mörken - €1.00

Holecards
   
sizuma folded
Hero raised to €3.00
mr-magic folded
AriesMu folded
check_lol raised to €11.00
Hero called - €11.00

Flop (Pot : $22.00)

   
check_lol checked
Hero checked

Turn (Pot : $22.00)

   
check_lol checked
Hero bet - €13.50
check_lol called - €13.50

River (Pot : $49.00)

   
check_lol checked
Hero went all-in - €82.63

i like it

doesn't seem like this guy wants to fold and its not like he has a drawing hand on the turn. You own him if he was trapping with a bigger pair and you don't look nutted after checking the flop. if you 3bet him with a7o and plowed k high i think he will want to call here with maybe as bad as a9

transitioning your bet sizing from checking to half pot, to 2x pot is completley retarded
checking this flop is also terrible

in poker bet sizing is preety much the name of the game, what I discover from this hand (in terms of what hero is thinking and his overall game) he has no sence of value, scared to play big pots with JJ on perfect flops, / THE ONLY REASON YOU SHOVE THE RIVER IS BECAUSE YOU HAVE TRIPS, if river was 4x, you'd prob bet another vagina half pot IM 95%+ SURE OF THIS

Also that KJ v A7 hand you talked about earlier, you prob half pot vagina bet the flop and turn but no follow through on the river (which is the most important street) and now all of a sudden you think your some lag who overbet bluffs rivers and everyone will hero call you - shit dont work like that

Yes, your 2x overbet is going to get hero called for no reason...not.

And jesus, I don't think it's possible to misplay this hand worse than you did post-flop. Flop - I hate money, don't need any. Turn - must make sure I don't get too much money. River - shit, he's trying to give me money--better put a stop to that.

actually shit sometimes does work like that, if your playing against retards or multi-tabling robots
this play is probably not terrible vs the opponent type you are probably playing, but overall its a preety shitty play

On February 03 2010 00:48 TalentedTom wrote: actually shit sometimes does work like that, if your playing against retards or multi-tabling robots this play is probably not terrible vs the opponent type you are probably playing, but overall its a preety shitty play

At MSNL all mass tablers, and pretty much everyone in general, folds to overbets. I really cannot see this ever getting paid off without some aggro history.

wow, calm down guys :D

tom and phexac - whats so bad about checking back flop?
tom and phexac - whats wrong with my turn bet size?
tom - haha, i thought about barreling river too, but it was a bad card for me. and i dont think im a lag who will get hero called.
tom - afterwards i was thinking about overbet shoving this river if its a brick, and that would have been my next question here.
phexac - what hands will call down a <pot-bet that will fold to a shove?

lol vagina bet? tom ftw

ROFL Tom you are amazing.

On February 03 2010 03:34 cantonaa wrote: wow, calm down guys :D tom and phexac - whats so bad about checking back flop? tom and phexac - whats wrong with my turn bet size? tom - haha, i thought about barreling river too, but it was a bad card for me. and i dont think im a lag who will get hero called. tom - afterwards i was thinking about overbet shoving this river if its a brick, and that would have been my next question here. phexac - what hands will call down a <pot-bet that will fold to a shove?

Checking back flop = missing a value bet + not protecting your hand
Turn bet size = too little value + giving better odds for him to draw out

River I actually think could be okay if it were against some random moron, but if he's actually some solid reg this looks pretty bad. The odds of you bluffing there are probably 0%.

but since its unlikely that he will cc three streets, why cant we take value on turn + river?
yeah, i agree that my turn bet could have been a bit bigger.

well, i know im not bluffing here, but i cant see him have anything good here. i think this looks more wierd than if a make a 2/3-pot bet or w/e.

every1 realise its a 3bet pot right? =)

villain will have AK here or like a 3b bluff of 8x/9x/6x sooted like always?

depending on what type of villain he is imo, since his hand is somewhat faceup it dosnt make much sense for you to overbet here since his range is so weak, (like he will never take this line w QQ/KK/AA)

most of reg 100nl villains will never ever make a herocall here, even though an overbet makes no sense and some villains might read it like "you bet big to fold out his faceup range cuz it can never call so it could be a bluff" and click call cuz of that.

but most villains will just instamuck their T8 och spade here or w/e he has

and it makes no sense for you to overbet here, it wont get called that much and i dunno if u will make this play w AQ type hand to make him fold everytime his AK-weak 1pair hand then maybe it can be justified to do this for value aswell

bet small instead to get called by a ratio of 100% instead of shoving here when his range is superweak

MAKES NO SENSE GOT DAMN IT

its simple

WEAK RANGE - BET SMALL IF YOU WANT A CALL, BET BIG IF YOU WANT A FOLD

STRONG RANGE - BET BIG IF YOU WANT A CALL, NEVER BLUFF

vs most "tag smallstakesfish" as tom would call this type of villain i would assume

longples secret book of nlhe



obv we cant use this 100% vs a thinking guy

shoving river is ok

if you bet flop and turn correctly

xD

first of all to make this clear: do you guys think i should bet bet shove here? what hands in his 3-bet range will he cc three streets with?

and longpie - what hands will call my normal river bet? almost every hand he will 3-bet light with hits this flop (i also expect him to cbet those). if i thought that he would have more one pair-hands in his range i would have bet smaller.

dont check this flop IP in a 3 bet pot. QQ-AA/sets is not check raising this flop like 90 - 100% of the time since any 10, 7, or 5 kills action and helps improve your range.

Can't really tell these guys to calm down lol, these guys are blunt and honest (when they're not trolling), but their comments help a ton.

Especially for tag fishes like me.

I wonder if you did this because you just watched the first episode of the 500k Tom Dwan HU challenge : )

likeaset - i guess youre right about that he wont cr often here.. but im still looking for a good reason to bet flop rather than bet turn + river. im not claiming that this line is the most profitable, i just want an explanation. and no, i havent watched that episode :D hehe

and the part about calming the guys down - yes, their comments helps a lot, but it would be nicer if they could explain their thoughts instead of writing "omg you suck lol"

basically when most villains 3 bet here and check this flop they're either thinking "fuck i have AKo and this board helps this dudes calling range a ton so i'll just check to give up" or "looks like i've got away with 3 betting 67,87,910 etc., I'll check call this flop this flop because some turns strengthen my range and I don't want to get blown off if i have the best hand."
So most of the times when you bet, villain is going to fold because he checked to give up, or call down with a marginal hand with SD value. By not betting the flop you miss the chance to win a larger size pot if villain was planning on calling down on all safe looking cards.

But hey I could be wrong, and be getting owned by villain doing some fancy play syndrom...but not likely.

This is a good spot to bet the flop,turn and river. As played dont overbet the river, the guy has a weak range that is very hard for him to call even a small bet, much less an overbet.

On February 04 2010 02:58 EvilSky wrote: This is a good spot to bet the flop,turn and river. As played dont overbet the river, the guy has a weak range that is very hard for him to call even a small bet, much less an overbet.

That implies that we will be over betting 100% with a weak hand right?

On February 04 2010 04:26 LemOn[5thF] wrote: Show nested quote + On February 04 2010 02:58 EvilSky wrote: This is a good spot to bet the flop,turn and river. As played dont overbet the river, the guy has a weak range that is very hard for him to call even a small bet, much less an overbet. That implies that we will be over betting 100% with a weak hand right?

as i said, taking this kind of line w AQ wouldnt be to terrible vs a normal nit reg

but an overbet isnt even needed on the riv w an airball

On February 04 2010 04:26 LemOn[5thF] wrote: Show nested quote + On February 04 2010 02:58 EvilSky wrote: This is a good spot to bet the flop,turn and river. As played dont overbet the river, the guy has a weak range that is very hard for him to call even a small bet, much less an overbet. That implies that we will be over betting 100% with a weak hand right?

Fuck no, why would it imply that¿?

On February 04 2010 04:51 EvilSky wrote: Show nested quote + On February 04 2010 04:26 LemOn[5thF] wrote:   On February 04 2010 02:58 EvilSky wrote: This is a good spot to bet the flop,turn and river. As played dont overbet the river, the guy has a weak range that is very hard for him to call even a small bet, much less an overbet. That implies that we will be over betting 100% with a weak hand right? Fuck no, why would it imply that¿?

Well if you don't expect a call when you overbet (You said that he is much less likely to call an overbet) , then why not do it?

You don't value overbet because he never calls, but you wouldn't bluff overbet? Please elaborate.

On February 04 2010 05:48 LemOn[5thF] wrote: Show nested quote + On February 04 2010 04:51 EvilSky wrote:   On February 04 2010 04:26 LemOn[5thF] wrote:   On February 04 2010 02:58 EvilSky wrote: This is a good spot to bet the flop,turn and river. As played dont overbet the river, the guy has a weak range that is very hard for him to call even a small bet, much less an overbet. That implies that we will be over betting 100% with a weak hand right? Fuck no, why would it imply that¿? Well if you don't expect a call when you overbet (You said that he is much less likely to call an overbet) , then why not do it? You don't value overbet because he never calls, but you wouldn't bluff overbet? Please elaborate.

Apart from the fact it would be grossly imbalanced there is another reason why that wouldnt be optimal, just think about it, imagine you were deeper.

its obv a gross imbalanced play but after playing flop like he did and with a bad/aggro image I think shove will get called by some players. I just don't think his calling range changes much from a psb to shove (hes usually folding) if hes out to get leveld

rep being tilted and make this work

ok fuck i admit its terrible but i just figured disregarding balance might as well be opportunistic with the rivered nuts if this guy might station up on a shove a decent % of the time he would have called a regular bet

On February 04 2010 06:00 EvilSky wrote: Show nested quote + On February 04 2010 05:48 LemOn[5thF] wrote:   On February 04 2010 04:51 EvilSky wrote:   On February 04 2010 04:26 LemOn[5thF] wrote:   On February 04 2010 02:58 EvilSky wrote: This is a good spot to bet the flop,turn and river. As played dont overbet the river, the guy has a weak range that is very hard for him to call even a small bet, much less an overbet. That implies that we will be over betting 100% with a weak hand right? Fuck no, why would it imply that¿? Well if you don't expect a call when you overbet (You said that he is much less likely to call an overbet) , then why not do it? You don't value overbet because he never calls, but you wouldn't bluff overbet? Please elaborate. Apart from the fact it would be grossly imbalanced there is another reason why that wouldnt be optimal, just think about it, imagine you were deeper.

don't think it would be an optimal bluff cause you could get similar or even more folds out of a standard bet or slight overbet.... but what about being deep that doesn't have to do with balance? shitting on urself if he rivered a straight (!?!wtf? doubt it) or just calls with w/e. i mean shove gets worse and worse the deeper you get if it doesn't fold out more hands the more u put in

bet 16 flop 32 turn then shove river.

Im a tourney player trying to move into cash games which has been a bit rough for me in the past im not used to the deep stack play. Also new to poker forums. In my experience and in my research I dont understand why you would want to make a huge pot of this hand. On the flop I would have had to bet. But if you run down the hands that this guy might have had to reraise you pre flop barring complete bs then what may he have? Any pair AK AQ KQ?(Maybe a little loose on the last 2).

That flop looks pretty good for low pairs and he did check into you after the being the aggressor post flop. But betting the flop and checking the turn could slow him down and limit the size of the pot if he is holding a big pair AA KK QQ or if he flopped his set. 99 88 66. So I would think the wisest thing to do would be since you re in position, want to get AK or AQ out and half of the pairs out have you beat at this point.

REMEMBER YOU ONLY HAVE A PAIR OF JACKS so far.

Bet 3/4 up to the pot on the flop, charge the draws and see where he stands.

If called check the turn, dont make a huge pot out of a pair, you re leaning towards committing yourself if he does have you smashed at this point. You are either barely ahead or way behind.

So flop 22$ bet of 16-20$ called. ( 62 Blinds in the pot now, getting kind of big for only a middle pair, any pair for that matter.)

Check turn.

And yay river you outdrew any hand you could have pinned your opponent on. Had you not caught your jack you would have to play this street very cautiously and let it go for a big bet.

But you got lucky and caught a big hand, if he has a straight at this point then he got there in a weird way have to pay him off.

62 bets out there you have about 87 at this point and he 130 something, too lazy to scroll up. If he bets into you you can push it all in and if he check you can still get the majority of your chips in there, say a bet of 3/4 - Full pot again. push 50 and you controlled this pot from getting out of hand with just a pair and still get paid when you make it on the river.

... Thats my take on it atleast im far from experienced in cash games though.

Oh God, why does everyone think it's ok to thrash a guy as soon as Tom does?

Yea sure Tom is right on all accounts and the hand is played badly (although, I don't feel that the flopcheck is as bad as some people says, but it's still fairly bad). However, a lot of the comments here are as dumb or dumber then the original hand.

On February 06 2010 06:05 DustySwedeDude wrote: Oh God, why does everyone think it's ok to thrash a guy as soon as Tom does? Yea sure Tom is right on all accounts and the hand is played badly (although, I don't feel that the flopcheck is as bad as some people says, but it's still fairly bad). However, a lot of the comments here are as dumb or dumber then the original hand.

Mob mentallity. I hope my comments wen't interpreted as trashing :0 I'm very critical of a lot of hands, I think a lot of people play the hand like hero did, I see these kind of line very often - people betting half pot and then overbetting the river, and it's always some tight player with the nuts

On February 06 2010 06:05 DustySwedeDude wrote: Oh God, why does everyone think it's ok to thrash a guy as soon as Tom does? Yea sure Tom is right on all accounts and the hand is played badly (although, I don't feel that the flopcheck is as bad as some people says, but it's still fairly bad). However, a lot of the comments here are as dumb or dumber then the original hand.

It doesn't really matter if it's Tom; it's the second anyone that isn't at microstakes says, "LOL RUSRS"