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UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje

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PuertoRican   United States. Oct 21 2020 05:17. Posts 12370

Date: Saturday, October 24
Main Card (ESPN+): 19:00 LP.net / 11am PST / 2pm EST
Preliminary Card (ESPN2/ESPN+): 17:00 LP.net / 9am PST / 12pm EST
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 15:30 LP.net / 7:30am PST / 10:30am EST
Live Streams: http://crackstreams.com/mma/2/




Main Card (ESPN+)

Khabib Nurmagomedov (28-0) vs. Justin Gaethje (22-2) (Lightweight Championship)
Robert Whittaker (21-5) vs. Jared Cannonier (13-4) (Middleweight)
Alexander Volkov (31-8) vs. Walt Harris (13-8) (Heavyweight)
Jacob Malkoun (4-0) vs. Phil Hawes (8-2) (Middleweight)
Lauren Murphy (13-4) vs. Liliya Shakirova (8-1) (Women's Flyweight)
Magomed Ankalaev (13-1) vs. Ion Cutelaba (15-5) (Light Heavyweight)

Preliminary Card (ESPN2/ESPN+)

Stefan Struve (29-12) vs. Tai Tuivasa (9-3) (Heavyweight)
Alex Oliveira (22-8-1) vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov (12-0) (Welterweight)
Da Un Jung (13-2) vs. Sam Alvey (33-14) (Light Heavyweight)
Sergey Morozov vs. TBA

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Nathaniel Wood (17-4) vs. Casey Kenney (15-2-1) (Catchweight - 140 lbs)
Liana Jojua (8-3) vs. Miranda Maverick (7-2) (Women's Flyweight)
Joel Alvarez (17-2) vs. Alexander Yakovlev (25-10-1) (Lightweight)

Other

- Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos was expected to face Shavkat Rakhmonov in a welterweight bout at the event. However, Zaleski pulled out in late September due to a knee injury that will require surgery. He was replaced by Alex Oliveira on October 7.
- Cynthia Calvillo and former Invicta FC Bantamweight Champion Lauren Murphy were scheduled to meet in a women's flyweight bout at the event. However on October 15, Calvillo was forced to withdraw the bout after testing positive for COVID-19 and she was replaced by promotional newcomer Liliya Shakirova that same day.

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Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Oct 21 2020 05:26. Posts 12370

First impression of the match-ups:

• Gaethje > Nurmagomedov
• Whittaker > Cannonier
• Volkov > Harris
• Hawes > Malkoun
• Murphy > Shakirova
• Ankalaev > Cutelaba
• Tuivasa > Struve
• Rakhmonov > Oliveira
• Jung > Alvey
• Kenney > Wood
• Jojua vs. Maverick (dunno)
• Alvarez > Yakovlev

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Oct 21 2020 05:28. Posts 12370



Rekrul is a newb 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 21 2020 06:29. Posts 400

Cos 2020 is weird, Gaethje via sub!!!

Kinda a tough debut for Rakhmonov. If that line keeps improving for the Brazilian Cowboy, I might end up picking him. It's -115 right now. It could be plus money by weigh ins.

I gamble on Shakirova on 9 days notice vs Murphy at +200. It's the first bet I made. She got good hands, good movement, more tools and Murphy gets hit a lot.

I like Volkov but I'm not sure if -185 is still good. What do you think?

I love both Cannonier and Whitaker. But dunno... I feel like it's Cannonier. Whitaker getting dropped by Till in the first round is a concern. He could get dropped by Cannonier and wouldn't be given enough time to recover.

 Last edit: 21/10/2020 06:39

captainhook   Canada. Oct 21 2020 06:44. Posts 400

Oh.. And don't you think both Kenney and Alvarez are overvalued? Wood is not Alateng. I don't think Wood will be giving Kenney all the opportunites to hit him.

As for Alvarez, a win vs a Duffy who looked like he didn't want to be in there anymore. And the win before that doesn't really say anything. Fade?


PuertoRican   United States. Oct 21 2020 06:51. Posts 12370


  On October 21 2020 05:29 captainhook wrote:
Cos 2020 is weird, Gaethje via sub!!!

Kinda a tough debut for Rakhmonov. If that line keeps improving for the Brazilian Cowboy, I might end up picking him. It's -115 right now. It could be plus money by weigh ins.

I gamble on Shakirova on 9 days notice vs Murphy at +200. It's the first bet I made. She got good hands, good movement, more tools and Murphy gets hit a lot.

I like Volkov but I'm not sure if -185 is still good. What do you think?

I love both Cannonier and Whitaker. But dunno... I feel like it's Cannonier. Whitaker getting dropped by Till in the first round is a concern. He could get dropped by Cannonier and wouldn't be given enough time to recover.


Side note: I'll be in Vegas for this card, and I can't bet until I get there, so I am missing all of the best odds for many of these fights... I might end up with Oliveira at evens or dog odds.

Also, notice the SPECIAL start time for this event. The first prelim fight starts at 7:30am in California. The PPV starts at 11am in California.

Lastly, I have always done my worst betting on PPV cards. IIRC, I have only made profit off of 2 PPV cards since 2013? Maybe a little more, but I only remember 2 events where it was noticeably profit, and not just a few bucks. Even during the last PPV card with Israel Adesanya, I decided to "play it safe" by not betting either guy in the 2 title fights, and taking the OVER in both fights cuz most title fights and main events in 2020 have went OVER the total -- what happened? Both fights were identical in how they played out, and both fights ended once one guy decided to let his hands go, which was near the end of Round 2... WTF??? Leg kicks for all 4 fighters until 1 guy lets his hands go then we see a quick TKO??????????????

- I like Khabib/Gaethje decision +175 (waiting for it to get better). I also like Gaethje +270. Even if Gaethje wins, I think Khabib can survive.
- Oliveira will likely be my bet. Rakhmonov is a decent underdog on DraftKings, so that's interesting. I don't want to pay any juice on Rakhmonov, as he hasn't beat anyone good, and he's making his debut against a seasoned veteran who knows how to handle inexperienced fighters.
- Murphy won't give Shakirova the space to let her strikes go. Murphy will eventually clinch and/or get the TD. Then again, it's women's MMA. No bet for me on the UFC newcomer.
- Volkov = I think he'll own Walt Harris most of the time they fight, as Harris is only a 3-minute fighter and mentally gives up if he can't get a fast finish, and his cardio kinda sucks, too. If I could get a good line on Volkov, I'd bet big on him, but his line keeps getting worse and worse... I'll likely end up with him in a 2-team parlay for $500 or so.
- I am passing on Cannonier and Whittaker on DraftKings. I think this fight goes to a decision most of the time, and whoever wins won't score much. Cannonier is TKO or bust in this fight, as Whittaker has better movement, is faster, and has more output + knows how to win rounds. Cannonier's run is overrated, imo, even though he's good.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Oct 21 2020 06:53. Posts 12370


  On October 21 2020 05:44 captainhook wrote:
Oh.. And don't you think both Kenney and Alvarez are overvalued? Wood is not Alateng. I don't think Wood will be giving Kenney all the opportunites to hit him.

As for Alvarez, a win vs a Duffy who looked like he didn't want to be in there anymore. And the win before that doesn't really say anything. Fade?


Remember that when I give my "first impression," it's only who I think will win at that very moment and without doing any tape study or deep thought about the fight. It has nothing to do with who I am going to bet on, or if I am going to bet on the fight at all.

Also, I always have a "final impression," after I watch tape and see how lines move. I often switch sides as we get closer to the fight.

Kenney should be favored, but I like Wood at +160. I will pass on the Alvarez fight, unless I find a juicy prop in Vegas.

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 21/10/2020 06:54

PuertoRican   United States. Oct 21 2020 06:54. Posts 12370


Rekrul is a newb 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Oct 21 2020 08:03. Posts 9383

Did I miss something or why are you guys picking Gaethje ?


captainhook   Canada. Oct 21 2020 10:42. Posts 400


  On October 21 2020 07:03 Spitfiree wrote:
Did I miss something or why are you guys picking Gaethje ?



Nope, nothing really. It's just PuertoRican's first impression. It could change.

As for me, I'm just gambling. Gaethje has more than a puncher's chance imo.


captainhook   Canada. Oct 23 2020 12:00. Posts 400

Walt Harris 10 lbs lighter, Volkov 10 lbs heavier. Fade Volkov?


captainhook   Canada. Oct 23 2020 16:14. Posts 400

Just helping out.

And watch the guy manning the scale while Khabib was weighing in. Is there anything suspect about it?





Khabib Nurmagomedov (155) vs Justin Gaethje (155)
Jared Cannonier (185) vs Robert Whittaker (186)
Walt Harris (254) vs Alexander Volkov (265)
Phil Hawes (186) vs Jacob Malkoun (186)
Lauren Murphy (126) vs Liliya Shakirova (126)
Magomed Ankalaev (205) vs Ion Cutelaba (205.5)
Stefan Struve (265) vs Tai Tuivasa (265)
Casey Kenney (140) vs Nathaniel Wood (140)
Alex Oliveira (173*) vs Shavkat Rakhmonov (171)
Sam Alvey (206) vs Da Un Jung (206)
Liana Jojua (126) vs Miranda Maverick (126)
Joel Alvarez (159.5*) vs Alexander Yakovlev (155.5)

*Missed weight


PuertoRican   United States. Oct 23 2020 17:12. Posts 12370


People who respond to Ariel's tweet provide pictures as evidence.


Of course Khabib had to cheat to make weight. Such BS. Just like his teammate, Daniel Cormier, and him cheating on the scales. And the UFC won't say shit.

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Oct 23 2020 21:06. Posts 12370

Alexander Volkov's weigh-in history:

• 265 vs. Harris (TBD in October 2020)*
• 247 vs. Blaydes (loss in June 2020)
• 251 vs. Greg Hardy (win in November 2019)
• 251 vs. Lewis (loss in October 2018)
• 246 vs. Werdum (win in March 2018)
• 251 vs. Struve (win in September 2017)
• 245 vs. Roy Nelson (win in April 2017)
• 249 vs. Tim Johnson (win in November 2016)

* Side note: Alexander Volkov will be celebrating his birthday on the day he fights Walt Harris.

----------

Walt Harris' weigh-in history:

• 254 vs. Volkov (TBD in October 2020)*
• 264.5 vs. Overeem (loss in May 2020)
• 256 vs. Oleinik (win in July 2019)
• 258 vs. Spivak (win in May 2019)
• 258.5 vs. Arlovski (No Contest in December 2018)
• 253 vs. Spitz (win in June 2018)
• 251.8 vs. Godbeer (DQ loss in November 2017)
• 251 vs. Werdum (loss in October 2017)
• 249 vs. Asker (win in June 2017)
• 254 vs. Sherman (win in January 2017)
• 254 vs. Abdurakhimov (loss in October 2016)
• 255.5 vs. East (win in April 2016)
• 250.5 vs. Palelei (loss in November 2014)
• 241 vs. Krylov (loss in January 2014)
• 244 vs. Rosholt (loss in November 2013)

* Side note: Walt Harris was heavy in this last fight, which was his first fight back after the murder of his stepdaughter.

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 24/10/2020 00:28

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Oct 23 2020 23:07. Posts 9383

I went through the comments but still don't get what happened, it seemed like his hands are up at the time he was getting weighted, did the judge just NOT put the correct weight on the scale intentionally or what ?


PuertoRican   United States. Oct 24 2020 00:30. Posts 12370


  On October 23 2020 22:07 Spitfiree wrote:
I went through the comments but still don't get what happened, it seemed like his hands are up at the time he was getting weighted, did the judge just NOT put the correct weight on the scale intentionally or what ?


Khabib was overweight the entire time. The weigh-in judge quickly moved the weight over to the right side and said he made weight, when the pictures on Twitter clearly show the metal pointer on the left of the scale shows Khabib missed weight.

The pointer needs to be in the middle of the line, not below it.

Rekrul is a newb 

captainhook   Canada. Oct 24 2020 01:22. Posts 400

The question now comes down to if Khabib really tried to lose the extra weight..?

I think he didn't cos he was first on the scale. The towel thing and needing to kneel down to drink water as if dehydrated was drama. This fucking Russian is cheating.


captainhook   Canada. Oct 24 2020 12:40. Posts 400

Anybody awake? Lol.


PuertoRican   United States. Oct 24 2020 16:25. Posts 12370

Gaethje ML +265 $200 for $530 Westgate
Gaethje/Khabib O4.5 +185 $150 for $277.50 Circa
Cannonier/Whittaker O2.5 +105 $100 for $105 Circa
Hawes/Malkoun U1.5 +120 $100 for $120 Circa
Jung decision +300 $20 for $60 Westgate
Jojua submission +900 $5 for $45 Westgate
Oliveira submission +850 $5 $42.50 Circa
Alex Oliveira ML +110 $50 for $55 Westgate
Yakovlev decision +400 risk $10 Westgate

Parlay: Ankalaev ML, Murphy ML $320 for $300 Westgate

Rekrul is a newb 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Oct 24 2020 18:01. Posts 9383

Oh now that the fights are in UAE they're actually during a reasonable time where I could watch live


 
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