- A welterweight bout between Ramazan Emeev and Shavkat Rakhmonov was expected to take place at the event, but Rakhmonov was forced to withdraw due to injury on July 2 and replaced by Niklas Stolze on July 5.
- Umar Nurmagomedov was expected to face Nathaniel Wood in a bantamweight bout at this event. However, he pulled out on July 3 after his uncle, Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov (also the father of current UFC Lightweight Champion Khabib Nurmagomedov), died from complications related to COVID-19. He was replaced by promotional newcomer John Castaneda on July 9.
- Justin Tafa was expected to face Raphael Pessoa in a heavyweight bout at this event. However, he pulled out on July 15 due to unknown reasons and was replaced by Tanner Boser that same day.
Rekrul is a newb
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PuertoRican United States. Jul 22 2020 03:21. Posts 13044
I got Whitaker. I don't think Till can lean way far back like Adesanya... Till gonna get caught with something like a 2 - 1 followed by Whitaker's right snapping high kick. I think... Dunno. And Till's not really battle tested vs the top guys his size at MW.
I like Esparza. I think Rodriguez is gonna have trouble with the takedowns.
Here's where I'm having trouble. I feel it's Sobotta. He has a good jab and fairly decent striking and Oliveira gets hit. And I think he edges Oliveira on the ground, who's prone to make mistakes.
I also got some random over - under bets: Over 1.5 for Rua vs Nog, under 4.5 for the main event, over 2.5 for Gus vs Werum and the under 1.5 for Craig vs Antigulov.
On July 22 2020 09:15 captainhook wrote:
How's Trinaldo's cardio?
Good enough for this matchup.
Jai Herbert is KO or bust.
Yeah dunno... Trinaldo looked good in his last match. This is gonna be a big test for Herbert imo. He could prolly also stick and move and win on a dec tho. I can't imagine Herbert doing what he does on the old guy. Dunno... Skipping that one.
Anyway, what's your take on Till?
Last edit: 23/07/2020 05:58
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PuertoRican United States. Jul 23 2020 08:30. Posts 13044
On July 22 2020 09:15 captainhook wrote:
How's Trinaldo's cardio?
Good enough for this matchup.
Jai Herbert is KO or bust.
Yeah dunno... Trinaldo looked good in his last match. This is gonna be a big test for Herbert imo. He could prolly also stick and move and win on a dec tho. I can't imagine Herbert doing what he does on the old guy. Dunno... Skipping that one.
Anyway, what's your take on Till?
Trinaldo is currently -140. I'm waiting to see where the line goes to lay enough to win $100 on Trinaldo.
Herbert is Trinaldo's easiest opponent in years. If Herbert doesn't land a big shot, it's a clear win for the old man.
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As for Whittaker vs. Till, Whittaker is the better fighter, but this matchup won't allow Whittaker to land a ton of strikes like he is used to doing. If Till is able to do what he wants to do, then this will be a low output strike for both guys, which is why I am avoiding it on DraftKings and FanDuel. If this fight ends early, it will be Till landing something big.
I think the smart play is Whittaker at even odds, but I'm going with Till because I think his career is going up, while Whittaker's career is going down (already been champ and defended his belt), and Till has more hunger/fire/reason to win this fight.
I've seen most bettors on Whittaker, yet his money line has only moved from -110 to -125 in the past 5 days. I'm sure his odds will go back near -110 as we get closer to the fight.
On July 23 2020 04:52 captainhook wrote:
^ I'll copy that parlay but add another over - under favorite... Any suggestions?
Nope.
It's kind of a tough card for betting, imo. Weird, since there are 15 fights.
The August 1st card might only have 11 fights, and there is no value on the card from what I can see. All of the fighters who I think will win are at least -210, except for one who is -170. It'll probably be a card where I make a few parlays and hope several underdogs don't win.
Rekrul is a newb
Last edit: 23/07/2020 08:34
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PuertoRican United States. Jul 24 2020 01:12. Posts 13044
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Fabricio Werdum won’t renew UFC contract after Gustafsson fight: ‘The cycle is over’
- Whittaker KO 25 to win 80
- Whittaker ML 50 to win 88.5
- Whittaker + Rua + Gustafsson 30 to win 100
I was going to bet for Sparza but regret it as her wrestling hasnt been the same in a long time, also Marina has a nice Muay thai. I dont think Sparza can wrestle her into a decision, I was also tempted to bet on Rodriguez by KO (+400) but I decided to not bet at this fight
Last edit: 24/07/2020 17:51
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PuertoRican United States. Jul 24 2020 23:01. Posts 13044
Robert Whittaker (186) vs. Darren Till (186)
Mauricio Rua (206) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (206)
Fabricio Werdum (242) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (240)
Carla Esparza (116) vs. Marina Rodriguez (115.5)
Paul Craig (206) vs. Gadzhimurad Antigulov (206)
Alex Oliveira (171) vs. Peter Sobotta (171)
Khamzat Chimaev (171) vs. Rhys McKee (170.5)
Francisco Trinaldo (160)* vs. Jai Herbert (156)
Nicolas Dalby (171) vs. Jesse Ronson (171)
Tom Aspinall (248) vs. Jake Collier (264)
Movsar Evloev (146) vs. Mike Grundy (146)
Tanner Boser (235) vs. Raphael Pessoa (264)
Bethe Correia (235) vs. Pannie Kianzad (136)
Ramazan Emeev (171) vs. Niklas Stolze (170.5)
Nathanial Wood (136) vs. John Castaneda (136)
*Francisco Trinaldo misses weight by 4 lbs.
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Fabricio Werdum weigh-in results
• 242 vs. Gustafsson in July 2020 (TBD)
• 243 vs. Oleinik in May 2020 (decision loss)
• 249 vs. Volkov in March 2018 (KO loss)
• 249 vs. Tybura in November 2017 (decision win)
• 247 vs. Harris in October 2017 (submission win)
• 239 vs. Overeem in July 2017 (decision loss)
Tybura isn't great at anything, and the fight against Harris (pure striker) was on less than 1 day short notice after Lewis pulled out.
I expect Gustafsson/Werdum to go the distance, unless Werdum gets a trip or a body-lock take down and gets a submission.
On July 25 2020 23:22 PuertoRican wrote:
Well, Ronson dropping Dalby in R1 and getting a submission win is the last thing anyone thought would happen...
Fuck.
Yup. Lost my parlay because of that.
Last edit: 26/07/2020 03:11
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PuertoRican United States. Jul 26 2020 03:11. Posts 13044
On July 24 2020 22:01 PuertoRican wrote: Fabricio Werdum weigh-in results
• 242 vs. Gustafsson in July 2020 (R1 submission win)
• 243 vs. Oleinik in May 2020 (decision loss)
• 249 vs. Volkov in March 2018 (KO loss)
• 249 vs. Tybura in November 2017 (decision win)
• 247 vs. Harris in October 2017 (R1 submission win)
• 239 vs. Overeem in July 2017 (decision loss)
Tybura isn't great at anything, and the fight against Harris (pure striker) was on less than 1 day short notice after Lewis pulled out.
I expect Gustafsson/Werdum to go the distance, unless Werdum gets a trip or a body-lock take down and gets a submission.
Updated.
So, Werdum has won 3 out of his last 6 fights, and those 3 wins were against easy competition.
The will be the first and last time we see Gustafsson at heavyweight.
^ Lol. For sure. Wipe that smirk off your face Jon Jones.
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PuertoRican United States. Jul 26 2020 03:39. Posts 13044
R1: Shogun
R2: I missed most of it, but Nog seemed like the aggressor
R3: Shogun (he sealed the deal with the TD with 1:05 left in the round and was busy on top.)
PuertoRican United States. Jul 26 2020 04:15. Posts 13044
R1: Till
R2: Whittaker
R3: Whittaker (Close round. I think it depends on the judge, even though I think Whittaker landed more strikes.)
Rekrul is a newb
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PuertoRican United States. Jul 26 2020 04:28. Posts 13044
R1: Till (Till dropped Whittaker.)
R2: Whittaker (Whittaker dropped till.)
R3: Whittaker (Close round. I think it depends on the judge, even though I think Whittaker landed more strikes.)
R4: Till (Closest round of the fight. I lean with Till landing the better shots, while Whittaker landed a few more shots.)
R5: Till (The commentators are biased af. Whittaker took the round off, imo. Till was the only fighter landing the decent/good shots this round. The quick TD at the end of the round meant nothing, as Till got back up, and Whittaker didn't attempt any damage.)
Darren Till 3-2, imo.
Rekrul is a newb
3
PuertoRican United States. Jul 26 2020 04:30. Posts 13044
The judges had the scores ready the fastest I've ever seen in a UFC fight.
Rekrul is a newb
3
PuertoRican United States. Jul 26 2020 04:38. Posts 13044
On July 22 2020 09:15 captainhook wrote:
How's Trinaldo's cardio?
Good enough for this matchup.
Jai Herbert is KO or bust.
Yeah dunno... Trinaldo looked good in his last match. This is gonna be a big test for Herbert imo. He could prolly also stick and move and win on a dec tho. I can't imagine Herbert doing what he does on the old guy. Dunno... Skipping that one.
Anyway, what's your take on Till?
Trinaldo is currently -140. I'm waiting to see where the line goes to lay enough to win $100 on Trinaldo.
Herbert is Trinaldo's easiest opponent in years. If Herbert doesn't land a big shot, it's a clear win for the old man.
----------
As for Whittaker vs. Till, Whittaker is the better fighter, but this matchup won't allow Whittaker to land a ton of strikes like he is used to doing. If Till is able to do what he wants to do, then this will be a low output strike for both guys, which is why I am avoiding it on DraftKings and FanDuel. If this fight ends early, it will be Till landing something big.
I think the smart play is Whittaker at even odds, but I'm going with Till because I think his career is going up, while Whittaker's career is going down (already been champ and defended his belt), and Till has more hunger/fire/reason to win this fight.
I've seen most bettors on Whittaker, yet his money line has only moved from -110 to -125 in the past 5 days. I'm sure his odds will go back near -110 as we get closer to the fight.
On July 23 2020 04:52 captainhook wrote:
^ I'll copy that parlay but add another over - under favorite... Any suggestions?
Nope.
It's kind of a tough card for betting, imo. Weird, since there are 15 fights.
The August 1st card might only have 11 fights, and there is no value on the card from what I can see. All of the fighters who I think will win are at least -210, except for one who is -170. It'll probably be a card where I make a few parlays and hope several underdogs don't win.
As I mentioned before, there were 15 fights, but the card was a tough one to bet on.
Only 4 bets, but lost them all.
I scored the fight 3-2 for Darren Till, but he didn't throw enough strikes, I guess.
PuertoRican United States. Jul 27 2020 09:08. Posts 13044
On July 27 2020 07:02 captainhook wrote:
Will you be on the next Rent Free podcast?
Maybe.
The guy who posts the videos has been busy with his new business, and I will start to return to my normal life of working in early August when school starts -- I have been on vacation for almost 2 months.
Once I go back to work, I will still watch UFC every weekend, but I won't have time to research fights, aside from 1-2 fights on a card that I really like and want to make a big bet on in Las Vegas (most of my betting bankroll is in Vegas, which is why I spent half of my summer there).
I'll basically just be watching fights and playing on DraftKings/FanDuel for the next month, since there are no fights I want to go big on until August 29 (Giga Chikadze vs. Alex Caceres). There is the DC vs. Stipe fight on August 15, but I already made a bet for that a few weeks ago ($575 for $500 on Daniel Cormier), so I won't need to travel or bet on any fights until August 29.
