- It was originally expected to be headlined by a welterweight bout between former UFC Lightweight Championship challenger Donald Cerrone and Tim Means. On February 3, it was announced that Means was informed of a potential USADA anti-doping policy violation stemming from an out-of-competition sample collection. Because there was insufficient time for a full review and proper promotion before the scheduled bout, Means was pulled from the fight by the UFC. The following day, Alex Oliveira was announced as his replacement.
- Sam Alvey was expected to face Daniel Sarafian at the event. Alvey pulled out of the bout in late December after sustaining a broken jaw and was replaced by Oluwale Bamgbose.
- Bryan Barberena was briefly linked to a bout with Jonavin Webb at the event. On January 22, Barberena was pulled from that fight in favor of a match-up with Sage Northcutt on January 30 at UFC on Fox 18, replacing an injured Andrew Holbrook. He was replaced by Nathan Coy.
- A welterweight bout between Brandon Thatch and Siyar Bahadurzada, originally slated for this event was rescheduled due to Thatch's inability to gain clearance for needed medication for the event. The bout will take place two weeks later at UFC 196.
Rekrul is a newb
Last edit: 21/02/2016 20:22
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 11 2016 04:28. Posts 13051
Minsk United States. Feb 11 2016 06:11. Posts 1558
Oliveira >>> Cerrone
I'm going to milk the odds until the last second.
Last edit: 11/02/2016 06:13
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iakim322 United States. Feb 11 2016 19:20. Posts 1335
Actually like Oliveira in this spot too
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 11 2016 22:01. Posts 13051
Oiveira holds his hands low iirc, which leaves himself open to the head kick. He'll also need to be prepared for Cerrone's power double-leg takedown that he uses against guys who aren't elite wrestlers.
I originally liked Oliveira, but I'd want better odds before I bet him.
On February 11 2016 05:11 Minsk wrote:
Oliveira >>> Cerrone
I'm going to milk the odds until the last second.
I wouldn't go as far as to say Oliveira >>> Cerrone, but i do agree he should be a good bet at +230.
james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;(
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soberstone United States. Feb 12 2016 03:18. Posts 2662
Sup guys. Had to take a little break after that horrific night (atleast for me) where Cruz beat TJ and Pettis sucked dicks.
Agree with pretty much every pick.
Cerrone > Oliveria - Odds seem right to me. I could see Brown Cowboy winning because Cerrone is a slow starter and he's not, but I don't expect it. I think he's under-rated but just matches up nicely for White Cowboy, who I just think is far more seasoned and diverse with that leg game. I also think he'll look better at 70, he was such a massive LW, although Oliveira is a big LW too. I like Oliveria's game but I don't see how he's gonna deal with Cerrone at range. 29-28 Cerrone.
Brunson > Carneiro - I'm high on Brunson and think its a great matchup for him so long as he doesn't make a huge mistake. Brunson via GnP after hurting him on the feet.
Garbrandt > Linekar - Nightmare matchup for Linekar if Garbrandt fights smart. He's got very good fightwork and plenty of reach on Linekar when you include their legs and frames. I really doubt Linekar wins a decision. I like the odds on Cody even though he under-performed last time out. He also has been training at Jackson's which is obv >>>>> Alpha Bad. Garbrandt via 29-28 decision.
Bermudez > Kawajiri - Kawajiri will probably gas and get finished unless he's able to catch Bermudez in a brawl because Bermudez can go a hard 3 and is pretty violent and despite his bad losses on paper, he hasn't looked bad in them. Bermudez via 2nd round KO.
Thatch > Siyar - They are giving Thatch a guy who is a WelterWeight slightly better Artem Lobov coming off multiple injuries and a layoff. If he loses this he's one of the bigger busts in recent memory. Thatch via 1st round KO.
Krause > Campbell - Threat of TD and all around MMA seasoning should get Krause by an equal or perhaps better pure striker. Krause via decision.
Garcia > Strickland - Can't be overly confident though even though I bet the odds will open at -350ish, Garcia looked awful vs Swick coming off the ACL and Strickland has managed to look terrible but also UFC level at the same time. Garcia via decision.
Camozzi > Riggs - Pretty big lock IMO. Camozzi isn't terrible and fights relatively intelligently, that's pretty much enough for me. Camozzi via 1st round TKO.
Bangbose > Sarafian - Just hoping. I like the crazy Jamaican. But I do think he can win if he's learned to grapple just a bit. Bangbose via 2nd round KO.
Murphy > Moraes (I can't believe she's still in the UFC) - Murphy via decision.
Good to see u back sober. I myself had an horrible night that time (i copy most of ur bets so.....) and i actually recently stopped betting on 5dimes, only did DK teams. Seems to work better for me so far, since it prevents me from tilting xD
soberstone United States. Feb 12 2016 06:49. Posts 2662
On February 12 2016 04:54 drone666 wrote:
Randleman passed away, damn dude was only 44
RIP
Damn. RIP Randleman. He was a troubled soul but seemed like a good enough dude.
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soberstone United States. Feb 12 2016 06:58. Posts 2662
On February 12 2016 03:35 Floofy wrote:
Good to see u back sober. I myself had an horrible night that time (i copy most of ur bets so.....) and i actually recently stopped betting on 5dimes, only did DK teams. Seems to work better for me so far, since it prevents me from tilting xD
TY Floofy.... and sorry. Humbling experience. Will be more selective, less arrogant and try to do better :D although I doubt you'll be tailing me now haha.
Either way, good to have the stink of losing and over-betting gone for now at least, I completely separated from the MMA-sphere out of pure disgust with myself (only because I was so overly confident).
I'm gonna start doing DK as well - I think the fish and lack of strategy make up for the juice - conceptually its all the same but it will take a while to figure out the best way to weigh upside vs consistency, how many lineups to make and what kind of contests certain lineups fit best in (if it even matters, I suspect it does), but I doubt its hard to get ahead of the curve.
I figure while DK may suck for fantasy football because well-funded think-tanks create like 100 optimal lineups based on advanced algorithms and consistently take a lions-share of the big money, I doubt anyone is doing that for MMA. Could be wrong though.
If you don't mind me asking whats your yield % guys ? PR and soberstone in particular, guessing you d share, considering you guys share pretty much every bet you make
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iakim322 United States. Feb 12 2016 23:16. Posts 1335
A fist fight between two really good athletes can always surprise you with variance once in awhile no matter how much we think we know...esp if you're involved in such volume. Just kinda keep that in mind so maybe you go all in a little less and you'll be good Sober
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iakim322 United States. Feb 12 2016 23:22. Posts 1335
I liked the odds on Cody too at first but I dunno. There's something about the way Cody fights and the way he is...that makes me think he won't fight the smartest plan against Lineker and will get caught a number of times if you were running this back several times. Still probably going to go with Cody but won't feel great about it
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iakim322 United States. Feb 12 2016 23:26. Posts 1335
On February 12 2016 03:35 Floofy wrote:
Good to see u back sober. I myself had an horrible night that time (i copy most of ur bets so.....) and i actually recently stopped betting on 5dimes, only did DK teams. Seems to work better for me so far, since it prevents me from tilting xD
You know what can be tilting about DK? Finally having a nice lineup in a gpp only to go back and check and realize like 25 other people had the exact same lineup and you gotta share the monies. Yeah you still won money but fuck sharing with that many people. Fortunately this doesn't happen very often for me. I've been a loser on like 2 of every 3 MMA events like a champ for a little while now on DK
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 12 2016 23:39. Posts 13051
On February 12 2016 22:09 Spitfiree wrote:
If you don't mind me asking whats your yield % guys ? PR and soberstone in particular, guessing you d share, considering you guys share pretty much every bet you make
I don't track my wins/loss and percentages. Since it's a hobby, I don't feel the need to keep track of any percentages, I just pay attention to how big/small my bankroll is. Also, I've had the same unit size ($10) for 3+ years, even when I lose a lot or win a lot.
If I consistently bet every UFC event and didn't take 4-6 months off from betting every year due to school, it'd probably be worth tracking my bets. (I just bet on the most recent UFC card, but I won't bet any other UFC cards until late-May 2016, aside from a few important fights like Conor vs. RDA and other title fights with good odds)
On February 12 2016 03:35 Floofy wrote:
Good to see u back sober. I myself had an horrible night that time (i copy most of ur bets so.....) and i actually recently stopped betting on 5dimes, only did DK teams. Seems to work better for me so far, since it prevents me from tilting xD
You know what can be tilting about DK? Finally having a nice lineup in a gpp only to go back and check and realize like 25 other people had the exact same lineup and you gotta share the monies. Yeah you still won money but fuck sharing with that many people. Fortunately this doesn't happen very often for me. I've been a loser on like 2 of every 3 MMA events like a champ for a little while now on DK
I know your pain... ...I've gotten 1st place in two different GPPs on DraftKings, and I had to share the first win with 40 people, and the second win with 30 people.
On February 12 2016 03:35 Floofy wrote:
Good to see u back sober. I myself had an horrible night that time (i copy most of ur bets so.....) and i actually recently stopped betting on 5dimes, only did DK teams. Seems to work better for me so far, since it prevents me from tilting xD
TY Floofy.... and sorry. Humbling experience. Will be more selective, less arrogant and try to do better :D although I doubt you'll be tailing me now haha.
Either way, good to have the stink of losing and over-betting gone for now at least, I completely separated from the MMA-sphere out of pure disgust with myself (only because I was so overly confident).
I'm gonna start doing DK as well - I think the fish and lack of strategy make up for the juice - conceptually its all the same but it will take a while to figure out the best way to weigh upside vs consistency, how many lineups to make and what kind of contests certain lineups fit best in (if it even matters, I suspect it does), but I doubt its hard to get ahead of the curve.
I figure while DK may suck for fantasy football because well-funded think-tanks create like 100 optimal lineups based on advanced algorithms and consistently take a lions-share of the big money, I doubt anyone is doing that for MMA. Could be wrong though.
There's 2 reasons i like DK
#1: Much easier to refill BR if needed.
#2 Can't tilt on DK or overbet.
I still really like 5dimes but i think ill take a break because i can't follow br management properly.
On February 12 2016 22:09 Spitfiree wrote:
If you don't mind me asking whats your yield % guys ? PR and soberstone in particular, guessing you d share, considering you guys share pretty much every bet you make
i don't track the % but i can say i'm a loser so far.
james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;(
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soberstone United States. Feb 13 2016 03:03. Posts 2662
On February 12 2016 22:09 Spitfiree wrote:
If you don't mind me asking whats your yield % guys ? PR and soberstone in particular, guessing you d share, considering you guys share pretty much every bet you make
Last year was my first year tracking and I had an ROI of 11 % over 479 bets placed. Problem is, I am not a great gambler apparently and made my biggest bet of the year on Chris Weidman and completely broke all bankrolling rules to do it because I was at the event and let emotion overcome me - which is not an excuse, it's actually a big red flag - prior to that the ROI was much better. But if it is an excuse, I would have had a much better ROI and obviously won a lot more money.
Than this year I upped my unit sizing dramatically and did awful on the 1st card, so I decided to withdraw my initial investment, take a break, and start low and not take it as seriously. I think it actually started hurting me overthinking shit and was hurting my quality of life spending so much time researching to an unhealthy not enjoyable degree - almost like a drug, I started getting anti-social and depressed - which is pathetic to say but its true, so hopefully I'm not a degenerate gambler because that would mean I'm bound to repeat my mistakes but I think I just had/have an unhealthy addiction to MMA. Like anything though, moderation and passion are key, I lost sight of that for sure.
PuertoRican United States. Feb 14 2016 07:20. Posts 13051
"A welterweight bout between Brandon Thatch and Siyar Bahadurzada, originally slated for this event was rescheduled due to Thatch's inability to gain clearance for needed medication for the event. The bout will take place two weeks later at UFC 196."
We now have 13 fights instead of 14.
Rekrul is a newb
Last edit: 14/02/2016 07:21
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 14 2016 20:43. Posts 13051
On February 14 2016 06:20 PuertoRican wrote:
"A welterweight bout between Brandon Thatch and Siyar Bahadurzada, originally slated for this event was rescheduled due to Thatch's inability to gain clearance for needed medication for the event. The bout will take place two weeks later at UFC 196."
We now have 13 fights instead of 14.
"Sarah Moras and Lauren Murphy has been nixed after Moras pulled out with an undisclosed injury."
On February 12 2016 22:09 Spitfiree wrote:
If you don't mind me asking whats your yield % guys ? PR and soberstone in particular, guessing you d share, considering you guys share pretty much every bet you make
Last year was my first year tracking and I had an ROI of 11 % over 479 bets placed. Problem is, I am not a great gambler apparently and made my biggest bet of the year on Chris Weidman and completely broke all bankrolling rules to do it because I was at the event and let emotion overcome me - which is not an excuse, it's actually a big red flag - prior to that the ROI was much better. But if it is an excuse, I would have had a much better ROI and obviously won a lot more money.
Than this year I upped my unit sizing dramatically and did awful on the 1st card, so I decided to withdraw my initial investment, take a break, and start low and not take it as seriously. I think it actually started hurting me overthinking shit and was hurting my quality of life spending so much time researching to an unhealthy not enjoyable degree - almost like a drug, I started getting anti-social and depressed - which is pathetic to say but its true, so hopefully I'm not a degenerate gambler because that would mean I'm bound to repeat my mistakes but I think I just had/have an unhealthy addiction to MMA. Like anything though, moderation and passion are key, I lost sight of that for sure.
PuertoRican United States. Feb 16 2016 02:33. Posts 13051
"Dengue fever forces John Lineker out of Cody Garbrandt fight."
FML... 14-fight card is now reduced to an 11-fight card... Hopefully Garbrandt can still fight some scrub and get paid, otherwise he'll likely not get paid his show money and win money. If the fight was canceled with less time to spare, Garbrandt would at least be paid his show money, but who knows at this point.
Rekrul is a newb
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 16 2016 02:46. Posts 13051
lmfao!
"Trevor Smith injured, out of UFC Fight Night 83 bout with Leonardo Augusto Guimaraes."
14 fights to 10 fights!
Rekrul is a newb
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 16 2016 07:50. Posts 13051
This event is on SUNDAY, not Saturday. I edited the new start time in the OP.
Date: Sunday, February 21st
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:59 LP.net / 3pm PST / 6pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 1:00 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 3:00 LP.net / 6pm PST / 9pm EST
Rekrul is a newb
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 17 2016 05:50. Posts 13051
Cody Garbrandt and Augusto "Tanquinho" Mendes is now scheduled for this UFC card.
Augusto "Tanquinho" Mendes:
...is taking the fight on 6-days notice.
...is 32-years-old
...is 5-0 in MMA, and a BJJ world champ
...was supposed to debut in the UFC on January 17 against Jimy Hettes, but a rib injury forced him out of the contest. His rib is fully healed.
iakim322 United States. Feb 17 2016 07:08. Posts 1335
How's Cody's takedown defense?
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 17 2016 07:56. Posts 13051
On February 17 2016 06:08 iakim322 wrote:
How's Cody's takedown defense?
His TDD is pretty good; above average, imo. Plus, it gets better as time passes cuz he trains with other guys who are the same size as Tanquinho (I'll call him Tanq for short).
iirc, when Tanq was first signed, other bettors said he has poor cardio, which might be his downfall in his fight against Hettes, which was cancelled. I'll update more later in the week when I see some information.
Still have 5 days till the event (Sunday, not Saturday).
From his Wikipedia
"Garbrandt was born and raised in Uhrichsville, Ohio, and began boxing at the age of 15, trained by his uncle, who was an Olympic alternate in the sport.[3] At Claymont High School, Garbrandt competed in wrestling, winning a state championship in 2007 as a freshman, and was a runner-up in 2008. Garbrandt was also a Senior National All-American in 2010, but ultimately turned his focus to boxing over wrestling. Despite not competing in wrestling during his final two years of high school, Garbrandt received interest from several Division I schools, but for academic reasons, he briefly attended a Division II school, Newberry College.[4] As an amateur boxer, Garbrandt compiled a 32-1 record."
Cody uses his wrestling skills as defense, which allows him to keep the fight standing. He'll use his wrestling only if he can't get an easy KO and wants to secure a round with a TD.
----------
Cody Garbrandt vs Augusto Mendes full fight preview
Cowboy fights so much it wouldn't surprise me if he were to fight himself.
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 20 2016 20:48. Posts 13051
Donald Cerrone (170) vs. Alex Oliveira (171)
Derek Brunson (186) vs. Roan Carneiro (184.5)
Cody Garbrandt (140.5) vs. Augusto Mendes (142)* – 142-pound catchweight
Dennis Bermudez (146) vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri (146)
Chris Camozzi (185.5) vs. Joe Riggs (186)
Shane Campbell (156) vs. James Krause (155.5)
Alex Garcia (171) vs. Sean Strickland (170.5)
Oluwale Bamgbose (185) vs. Daniel Sarafian (186)
Leonardo Augusto Leleco (184.5) vs. Anthony Smith (185.5)
Nathan Coy (170) vs. Jonavin Webb (169.5)
Ashlee Evans-Smith (135.5) vs. Marion Reneau (135)
Kelly Faszholz (135) vs. Lauren Murphy (135.5)
Shamil Abdurakhimov (254) vs. Anthony Hamilton (260)
* – Fined 20 percent for missing weight (16% to Garbrandt; 4% to commission)
thoughts on Cerrone by KO/TKO at +250? Seems like a good bet to me but not sure.
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 21 2016 18:11. Posts 13051
On February 21 2016 16:24 alejandicto wrote:
thoughts on Cerrone by KO/TKO at +250? Seems like a good bet to me but not sure.
Cerrone usually wins by submission. He hurts someone on the feet, then takes their back when they fall to the floor.
Due to Oliveira holding his hands low a lot, Cerrone could win via head kick, but I'd pass on his KO prop, or go small on it if you really want some action.
Rekrul is a newb
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NMcNasty United States. Feb 21 2016 22:27. Posts 2039
Going to this, pretty excited.
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 21 2016 23:29. Posts 13051
On February 21 2016 21:27 NMcNasty wrote:
Going to this, pretty excited.
Nice. Have fun.
I just tuned into the prelims.
Rekrul is a newb
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soberstone United States. Feb 21 2016 23:36. Posts 2662
On February 21 2016 21:27 NMcNasty wrote:
Going to this, pretty excited.
Nice, not the most stacked card but I bet you see a lot of finishes
Yep, definitely some finishes. Maybe a little too many and too quickly, the main event was certainly anti-climactic. There were some good fights earlier on though.
United States. Feb 21 2016 22:27. Posts 2039
