UFC FN 78: Magny vs. Gastelum

Date: Saturday, November 21st
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 00:30 LP.net / 3:30pm PST / 6:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 3:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Neil Magny (16-4) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (11-1) (Welterweight)
Ricardo Lamas (15-4) vs. Diego Sanchez (25-7) (Featherweight)
Jussier Formiga (18-3) vs. Henry Cejudo (9-0) (Flyweight)
Erick Montano (6-3) vs. Enrique Marin (8-2) (TUF Latin America 2: Welterweight Final)
Enrique Barzola (10-2-1) vs. Horacio Gutierrez (2-1) (TUF Latin America 2: Lightweight Final)
Efrain Escudero (24-9) vs. Leandro Silva (18-3-1) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Erik Perez (14-6) vs. Taylor Lapilus (10-1) (Bantamweight)
Hector Urbina (17-8-1) vs. Bartosz Fabinski (12-2) (Welterweight)
Scott Jorgensen (15-11) vs. Alejandro Perez (15-6) (Bantamweight)
Gabriel Benitez (18-4) vs. Andre Fili (14-3) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Vernon Ramos (3-0) vs. Alvaro Herrera (8-3) (Welterweight)
Cezar Arzamendia (7-1) vs. Marco Polo Reyes (3-1) (Lightweight)
Valmir Lazaro (13-3) vs. Michel Prazeres (18-2) (Lightweight)

Other

- A welterweight bout between Matt Brown and Kelvin Gastelum was expected to serve as the event headliner. However, on November 2, Brown withdrew from the fight due to an ankle injury suffered in training. He was replaced by Neil Magny.
- Damian Stasiak was expected to face Erik Perez at this event. However, Stasiak was removed from the bout and replaced by Taylor Lapilus.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Gastelum > Magny
• Lamas > Sanchez
• Cejudo > Formiga
• Silva > Escudero
• Lapilus > Perez
• Urbina vs. Fabinski (dunno)
• Jorgensen vs. Perez (dunno, but Jorgensen is 1-5 in his last 6 UFC fights. That 1 win was against Danny Martinez, who was 0-3 in the UFC until he used his wrestling to beat a professional surfer turned MMA fighter in Richie Vaculik by decision yesterday at UFC 193.)
• Benitez > Fili
• Prazeres > Lazaro
• Montano vs. Marin (dunno)
• Ramos vs. Herrera (dunno)

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This card is a steaming pile of shit... It's full of random Mexicans and Mexican-American fighters that nobody gives a shit about, aside from Kelvin Gastelum and Henry Cejudo to some extent.

Gastelum > Magney (Put down a 10 unit bet on Gastellum last week at -245)
Lamas > Sanchez - Odds are insanely wide and still probably playable, its very hard to see Sanchez winning, very hard
Cejudo > Formiga - Similar sentiment to the Lamas fight, but Formiga is atleast a decent fighter
Silva v Esceudero - Still dunno
Perez v Lapilus - Pickem
Fabinksi > Urbina
Jorgenson v Perez - Pickem
Fili v Benitez - Pickem
Prezeras > Lazaro
Dunno rest yet


Not sure about the rest yet. As stated this card is dog shit. I plan on studying it tonight and looking for some mis-set lines to pick at when they are released. Besides Gastellum being easy money IMO (I will def be ready to buyout if he looks terrible at weighins) I see no way to make money on this card besides just beating 5-dimes themselves. As mentioned, card is truly terrible, worse than the Smolka v Holohan card by far.

+ Show Spoiler +

On November 16 2015 17:07 soberstone wrote: Gastelum > Magney (Put down a 10 unit bet on Gastellum last week at -245) Lamas > Sanchez - Odds are insanely wide and still probably playable, its very hard to see Sanchez winning, very hard Cejudo > Formiga - Similar sentiment to the Lamas fight, but Formiga is atleast a decent fighter Not sure about the rest yet. As stated this card is dog shit. I plan on studying it tonight and looking for some mis-set lines to pick at when they are released. Besides Gastellum being easy money IMO (I will def be ready to buyout if he looks terrible at weighins) I see no way to make money on this card besides just beating 5-dimes themselves. As mentioned, card is truly terrible, worse than the Smolka v Holohan card by far. + Show Spoiler + Gastelum > Magney SU -245 $500

Pretty much my thoughts, except I'm not fully100% sure that Gastellum is such a lock.

Wrestling, aggression, strength, and the fact that Gastelum is a Spanish speaking Mexican American should give him the edge. However, Magny is always game, and I usually bet the wrong side in his fights.

Added Cejudo and Lamas parlay as well. Top 3 fights seem really straightforward. I think we don't see any surprises for once. I'll probably prop a Diego S/D (never a bad idea apparently) or the handicapped line if he looks good magically at weighin's at 45.

Really can't even bring myself to study the fodder. I just need to know if Lapilus is decent, I consistently skip his fights for some reason. Argh. Must, do, it.

Edit: NM lines were released and I somehow forgot to notify. Lame.

On November 17 2015 02:17 Minsk wrote: Show nested quote + On November 16 2015 17:07 soberstone wrote: Gastelum > Magney (Put down a 10 unit bet on Gastellum last week at -245) Lamas > Sanchez - Odds are insanely wide and still probably playable, its very hard to see Sanchez winning, very hard Cejudo > Formiga - Similar sentiment to the Lamas fight, but Formiga is atleast a decent fighter Not sure about the rest yet. As stated this card is dog shit. I plan on studying it tonight and looking for some mis-set lines to pick at when they are released. Besides Gastellum being easy money IMO (I will def be ready to buyout if he looks terrible at weighins) I see no way to make money on this card besides just beating 5-dimes themselves. As mentioned, card is truly terrible, worse than the Smolka v Holohan card by far. + Show Spoiler + Gastelum > Magney SU -245 $500 Pretty much my thoughts, except I'm not fully100% sure that Gastellum is such a lock.

Never called him a lock, but he should beat Magney's ass. Magney is game, I agree, but he doesn't have anything that should threaten Gastellum if he hasn't regressed. Magney is a flawed fighter and Gastellum should be able expose those flaws. If I here that Magney has been breathing the shitty Monterrey air and has gotten used to it for a week while Gastellum comes in over weight or on weight looking shitty, I'll certainly hedge. Good thing I'll be able to buy-out at a profit most likely under those circumstances because Magney is already up to +230.

what you guys think about the Over for lama/diego and cejudo fights???

Diego is hard to finish, and hes not a finisher himself
Cejudo has only gone to decision, Formiga is bjj guy, fight will be mostly a stand up

only play i see is cejudo lamas gastellum 3 man parlay. just went big on that at 1:1

On November 19 2015 20:14 Zadan wrote: what you guys think about the Over for lama/diego and cejudo fights??? Diego is hard to finish, and hes not a finisher himself Cejudo has only gone to decision, Formiga is bjj guy, fight will be mostly a stand up

I like u2.5 +160 for the Lamas/Sanchez fight. Sanchez hasn't fought in awhile, eats a lot of strikes, easily gets cut on his face, he's old and slow, and he's fighting at 145 lbs for the first time in his MMA career.

I think Lamas will get a submission win, with a slight possibility of Sanchez losing due to a cut, but the latter is less likely in this fight cuz Lamas isn't a volume striker.

Bellator and WSOF are on Friday:





Bellator 146: Kato vs. Manhoef


Hisaki Kato vs. Melvin Manhoef
Bubba Jenkins vs. Jordan Parsons
Chidi Njokuani vs. Ricky Rainey
Brandon Girtz vs. Derek Campos
Guilherme Viana vs. Houston Alexander

----------


(volume is muted, but everyone made weight)


World Series of Fighting 25: Lightweight Tournament


Quarter-finals

Mike Ricci vs. Brian Cobb
Luis Palomino vs. Rich Patishnock
Brian Foster vs. Joao Zeferino
Jorge Patino vs. Islam Mamedov

Reserve Bouts

LaRue Burley vs. Joe Condon
Benny Madrid vs. Ramil Mustapayev

Preliminary Card (WSOF.com)

Jason High vs. Caros Fodor
Joseph Barajas vs. Erik Villalobos
Jimmy Scully vs. Roberto Yong


Whoever wins the tournament will have to fight a total of 3 times in one night.

3 mma fights in one night for 2 people? crazy

Nice, one night tournament :D. I hope Palomino wins

Ricci will win the tourney IMO. They changed up the order and he is fighting Joe Condon in the 1st round who couldnt even beat 1-armed Nick Newel. -1300 unfortunately. Should be -5000.

I'm pissed cuz I was looking to bet him at -250 vs Brian Cobb and then they switched it up.

Palomino v Patishnock should be fireworks.

Also, Bellator - Manhoef and his cracked chin vs Kato just being awful should produce fireworks.

Kelvin Gastelum (171) vs. Neil Magny (171)
Ricardo Lamas (146) vs. Diego Sanchez (145)
Henry Cejudo (126) vs. Jussier Formiga (126)
Enrique Marin (170) vs. Erick Montano (169) – ‘TUF: Latin America 2’ welterweight final
Enrique Barzola (155) vs. Horacio Gutierrez (154) – ‘TUF: Latin America 2’ lightweight final
Efrain Escudero (156) vs. Leandro Silva (155)
Taylor Lapilus (136) vs. Erik Perez (136)
Bartosz Fabinski (170) vs. Hector Urbina (171)
Scott Jorgensen (135.5) vs. Alejandro Perez (135.5)
Gabriel Benitez (145) vs. Andre Fili (145)
Alvaro Herrera (171) vs. Vernon Ramos (170)
Cesar Arzamendia (155) vs. Polo Reyes (155)
Valmir Lazaro (155) vs. Michel Prazeres (156)

----------

I forgot that this is a TUF Latin America card. Since last night was the last episode, there were 4 guys who advanced from the show to the UFC finale card, so we go from 11 fights to 13 fights.

People who looked soft

Alvaro Herrera
Scott Jorgensen
Hector Urbina
Erick Montano
Kelvin Gastelum


Efrain Escudero looked soft as well, but it's standard for him. He actually looked a little better than usual, but still kinda soft.

Nice, threw the under in Manhoef fight in a Lamas parlay for tomorrow and then Manhoef Manhoef's. Sick KO. The African Thunder Left Hook of Violence.

Sick KO by Melvin.

WSOF started right after Melvin got the KO.

----------

Multiple injuries in the WSOF event. Ricci and Mamedov won their first fights, but they are both injured, so they had to give up their fights to guys who lost in the first round.

On November 21 2015 00:45 PuertoRican wrote: People who looked soft Alvaro Herrera Scott Jorgensen Hector Urbina Erick Montano Kelvin Gastelum Efrain Escudero looked soft as well, but it's standard for him. He actually looked a little better than usual, but still kinda soft.

Isn't it kinda standard for Gastelum to look soft too?

On November 21 2015 05:34 iakim322 wrote: Show nested quote + On November 21 2015 00:45 PuertoRican wrote: People who looked soft Alvaro Herrera Scott Jorgensen Hector Urbina Erick Montano Kelvin Gastelum Efrain Escudero looked soft as well, but it's standard for him. He actually looked a little better than usual, but still kinda soft. Isn't it kinda standard for Gastelum to look soft too?

Yeah. I was just expecting him to look a little better since he fought his last fight at 185. Maybe he doesn't want to risk putting any more muscle on since he can barely make 170 as it is.

----------

WSOF: good comeback win for Brian Foster to with the 8-man tournament after he lost in the first round, and was brought back as a replacement in the second round.

Middleweight (1 fight: early 2005)
Welterweight (13 fights: mid-2005 to mid-2008; return to Welterweight in mid-2010 to early 2012)
Lightweight (7 fights: early 2009 to late 2009; return to Lightweight in early 2013 to mid-2014)
Featherweight (1 fight: late 2015)

Diego has 21 fights in the UFC, and his fight against Ricardo Lamas will be his 22nd UFC fight.

I'm kind of salty about that tournament. Why did they even have an alternate fight if they didn't use the winner as an alternate? And they had another lightweight fight as the co-main that they could have used if they planned it better. They could have had four winners advance to the second round instead of two winners and two losers.

How do u go from fighting 185 to 135? Wtf

185 to 145. Still crazy

On November 21 2015 19:10 traxamillion wrote: How do u go from fighting 185 to 135? Wtf

185 to 145.

Kenny Florian did the same thing. His last fight was at featherweight against Jose Aldo for the title, which he lost by 5-round decision.

On November 21 2015 19:10 traxamillion wrote: How do u go from fighting 185 to 135? Wtf

You make really bad career decisions but are a fucking warrior and put a smile on your face when you feel like you are about to die.

I really respect the shit out of Diego Sanchez but I think hes gonna get fucking lit by Lamas really quickly, hes gonna be at such a ridiculous speed disadvantage and if he can take the same kind of punishment that he normally takes after that kind of weight cut.... I really respect him even more, but it will lose me a little bit of money.

Final pre-card bets:

Straight:
Gastellum > Magney SU -245 $500.00
Ramos > Herrera SU -160 $82.50

Props:
Sanchez by Decision PROP 722 $50.00
Lamas Wins ITD PROP 175 $50.00
Fabinsky Wins by Decision PROP 147 $50.00
Perez > Jorgenson (SCORECARDS = NO ACTION) PROP 113 $100.00

Parlays:
Cejudo (-470) + Lamas (-650) PL -251 $250.00
Lamas (-500) + Benitez (+190) PL 249 $50.00
Gastellum (-310) + Lamas (-500) + Manhoef / Kato U 1.5 (-255) PL 122 $50.00

Edit: Also considering a bet on the Gastellum / Magney over but def not if its small cage, which it very well might be cuz every Mexican on the planet will prolly be watching the Canello v Cotto fight.

On November 21 2015 22:37 soberstone wrote: Edit: Also considering a bet on the Gastellum / Magney over but def not if its small cage, which it very well might be cuz every Mexican on the planet will prolly be watching the Canello v Cotto fight.

Like most big PPV events, Canelo vs. Cotto won't start till 8:30pm PST at the earliest. I assume it'll start at 9pm PST.

Lazaro got robbed... Poor guy.

He should've been more aggressive though. No way Prazeres won round 2, and round 3 was clear for Lazaro.

ROfl @ faceplant. Good stoppage IMO.

Need action on all the fights so tell me who to pick on these fights

Perez v lapulis

Silva v escuerdo

Guttierez v bar zola

Marin montano.

Made my picks on the others already

Bet all the Mexican maybe? Or fade the TUF guys

On November 22 2015 00:46 traxamillion wrote: Need action on all the fights so tell me who to pick on these fights Perez v lapulis Silva v escuerdo Guttierez v bar zola Marin montano. Made my picks on the others already

This is a hard card to bet because it's mostly UFC newcomers and/or lower level fighters.

Escudero vs. Silva is hard to pick, but I'm going with Escudero because he's from Mexico and has a higher striking output. Escudero needs to stop the first two TD attempts from Silva, though.

Lapilus is one of my two favorite underdogs, as I think he'll win. However, Perez is a come-forward fighter and might be able to get a take down and/or look busy enough to win on aggression alone, as we saw in the robbery that was Michel Prazeres vs. Valmir Lazaro.

Cool thanks

damn, jorgensen with broken ankle is hard to watch, dude cant even walk
fucking judge should stop that shit, ffs

Sigh...

The fuckery continues with Jorgensen's injury...

Nice Perez was one of my bigger bets. Hilarious fight that other guy has heart

Well not that funny but strange at least, agree ref should have stopped it way sooner

Was this reyes fight fron earlier?

$

Jorgenson's corner should be fucking ashamed of themselves.

On November 22 2015 01:46 traxamillion wrote: Was this reyes fight fron earlier?

Ya, that's what I call a cardio KO. Didn't even land on the jaw.

$

Unless he is fighting a good wrestler, Fabinski decision is the way to go. Doesn't even look for the finish, deplorable to watch, but easy $.

Let me know what happens with the bazinski fight, driving

You mean Fabinski? Winner by UD...
But where did that one 29-28 came from? DId i miss something?

On November 22 2015 02:25 ERASA wrote: You mean Fabinski? Winner by UD... But where did that one 29-28 came from? DId i miss something?

Yah if thats not a clear 30-27 across the board I don't know what is. That said, its a Mexican judge who hates anything that isnt boxing presumably.

Lapilus with the worst fight IQ of the night. Perez had nothing for him prior to Lapilus going for the guillotine and ending up on his back, which lost him the fight cuz he was gassed when round 3 started.

Well done by Perez.

Lapilus should become a damn good fighter if he keeps getting better, simple mistakes cost him that fight.

Ah lame lapulis lost had him straight and parlayed with the last guy

Escudero looked like his old self in this fight. He fought with low fight IQ, and he gassed halfway through the fight.

Silva's MMA striking looked improved. He usually focuses on take downs in his fights, even though he has good striking credentials outside of MMA.

That one judge... keeps it interesting...

GO LAMAS

Diego filled out quite a bit over night

Damn... looks like its legday

should have been way more confident about Lamas, Diego's past history of decisions and being under greg jacksons made me iffy

man hes a warrior still standing after all those kicks

Everytime he has him limping he is shooting for takedowns?

On November 22 2015 05:45 ERASA wrote: Everytime he has him limping he is shooting for takedowns?

Yah stupid. But apparently it wouldn't have mattered because Diego is made out of indestructible dark matter.

All that said, War Gastellum, bout to cap off a nice night if nothing gets wierd here.

I actually have magny here :O
i hope he can outcardio gastellum

Yes go Kelvin

Lamas had Diego hurt twice, but kept falling into Diego's taunts of "come on" against the cage. Stupid ass beaner...

Lucky his dumb ass didn't get clipped on the way in.

WOW... Magny is dominating Kelvin in round 1!

Magny 2-0!!!

Magny 3-0!!! The reversal at the end was Kelvin's best part of the round, and the round ended 4 seconds later. Magny won 4 minutes prior to that.

Makes you realize what a beast maia must be...

takedown-wise i mean

Well I'd say Magney ragdolling Gastellum qualifies as wierd... so yah. Fuck me. Suckout needed.

Gastellums corner calling it 1-2, i am crazy scoring it 3-0?

FUCKING FINISH HIM FUCK

Thank god...

With my bias i have it 3-2 magny :O

Sick fight!

Either a win for Magny, or a Draw. All depends how the judges score round 4.

Yah. So regardless of the judging outcome. Magney ragdolls Gastellum early. Gastellum outcardio and hearts him late.

If you predicted this outcome, you are a God or an idiot, I'm not sure which.

3-2 Magny easy, hoping for a robbery.

How is a reversal at the end win him that round? Its a draw if 1-3 Magny, 4 a 10-8 and forth for gastellum... but i dont see the 4th being a 10-8... we will see i guess

Glad Neil Magny didn't get screwed. The 48-47 for Gastelum makes no sense; that one judge should be shot.

Good job judges, right guy won. What a crazy fight.

Worst night of the year.

-$496

Back under 5k.

That was a crazy weird fight man.

They don't score rounds 10-8 in MMA? I thought Gastellum clearly won that. But grappling is how I did see Magny potentially winning.

FWIW, Magney put on a shitload of muscle and used his leverage and gameplan beautifully. Kelvins wrestling completely disappeared. That was seriously the most unexpected outcome/play-out of a fight I've seen in a really long time. I can't even think if a fight that matches that in terms of just having a completely wrong read on a fight. Really disappointing on my end, but congrats to the Magney bettors of the world - good job ERASA.

On November 22 2015 06:40 Minsk wrote: They don't score rounds 10-8 in MMA? I thought Gastellum clearly won that. But grappling is how I did see Magny potentially winning.

There are 10-8 rounds in MMA, that's how one judge scored it for Kelvin Gastelum.

Neil Magny clearly won rounds 1-2-3. Kelvin clearly won round 4 with a 10-8 score, and then Kelvin won round 5 with a 10-9 score. Kelvin didn't do nearly enough to get a 10-8 in round 5, as a 10-8 round means that the guy losing is getting beat down so much he's close to getting finished, and that's not what happened in round 5, even with Kelvin's flurry from the top.

That should have been a draw then.

On November 22 2015 06:46 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On November 22 2015 06:40 Minsk wrote: They don't score rounds 10-8 in MMA? I thought Gastellum clearly won that. But grappling is how I did see Magny potentially winning. There are 10-8 rounds in MMA, that's how one judge scored it for Kelvin Gastelum. Neil Magny clearly won rounds 1-2-3. Kelvin clearly won round 4 with a 10-8 score, and then Kelvin won round 5 with a 10-9 score. Kelvin didn't do nearly enough to get a 10-8 in round 5, as a 10-8 round means that the guy losing is getting beat down so much he's close to getting finished, and that's not what happened in round 5, even with Kelvin's flurry from the top.

I dont think anybody scored a 10-8 round, the fight should have been a draw, Round 4 should have been 10-8 with 2 knockdowns

On November 22 2015 06:55 Baalim wrote: Show nested quote + On November 22 2015 06:46 PuertoRican wrote:   On November 22 2015 06:40 Minsk wrote: They don't score rounds 10-8 in MMA? I thought Gastellum clearly won that. But grappling is how I did see Magny potentially winning. There are 10-8 rounds in MMA, that's how one judge scored it for Kelvin Gastelum. Neil Magny clearly won rounds 1-2-3. Kelvin clearly won round 4 with a 10-8 score, and then Kelvin won round 5 with a 10-9 score. Kelvin didn't do nearly enough to get a 10-8 in round 5, as a 10-8 round means that the guy losing is getting beat down so much he's close to getting finished, and that's not what happened in round 5, even with Kelvin's flurry from the top. I dont think anybody scored a 10-8 round, the fight should have been a draw, Round 4 should have been 10-8 with 2 knockdowns

Oh, my bad.

And this is why I don't play poker! xD

So anyway, it should've been a draw then. Round 4 was a clear 10-8 for Kelvin.

I don't see how you can score round 4 with the same weight as the other rounds. It's textbook 10-8 or at least it should be.

Do both sides of the ML bet lose on a draw outcome? Or wash?