Next Big Esports Betting Game - Page 3

On November 17 2015 10:50 FiSheYe wrote: The decision tree in FLHU is arguably much smaller than in Hearthstone, especially with new cards being added and adding a lot of new strategies. Of course Hearthstone appears very simple on the outside, but so does Fixed Limit.

Hey Fisheye,

Smuft wrote an excellent write up but I wanted to point out that game tree in hearthstone is nowhere near close to HUFL. In HUFL, you have 1300 combination of hands which majority go passed the first decision tree. Tree gets smaller by each street but complexity that involves in solving this is an impossible task without a simulator. If you compare that to hearthstone, you are playing with a deck consisting of 30 cards, solving the mulligan is an easy task that only requires few minutes of lab work from a bright mind. Also, as a lot of the posters mentioned in above, a lot of the decks plays it self and there's really only two or three different options to choose on tough turns.

Closer comparison we can make of hearthstone to poker would be 30bb HU SNG.

I respect Fisheye so much but comparing Starcraft to HU NLHE doesn't seem very convincing. No way Starcraft is harder in my opinion. It might seem that way on paper but when we factor inherent human limitations in the ability of splitting attention and performing manual tasks skill ceiling becomes so much higher in HU NLHE.

Well, keep in mind we're all way above the average Joe when it comes to skills in bw. We all played tremendous hours over the year to reach the level we have now.

Either way I find it hard to compare because it's not really the same skills...

The reason why i find HearthStone betting not very interesting is because to me, its literally just flipping a coin. Pretty much every pro players will play every spots the same, and when there is a difference of play, its because the outcome is almost meaningless. I am pretty sure pros playing pros, nobody will ever have long term win rates over 55%.

If there is one sport/game i find REALLY fun to bet on, its MMA. Maybe its because of my fishy side, but i really feel like sometimes there are some really good bets you can make. For example, this weekend, i honneslty feel like Holm can at least beat ronda 60% of the time, and she was paying +1200 at one point, such a +EV bet. At the opposite, there are sometimes some bets i made which, after some thoughts, i clearly realize they were horribly stupid, for example, betting on Barao in the rematch against Dillashaw.

There will never be any such things in hearthstone obviously. I can't imagine a way to find an edge in hearthstone betting. Maybe i'm wrong, but i think bettors at least want the illusion they can be a winning player long term.

5-10 programs to analyze poker?

what the fuck?

+1 to banning hand histories, huds, all that shit then

@AndrewSong: The hard tasks in HS won't be mulligans or turn decisions in the future, rather deck building. If the tournament scene of HS gets bigger, then a very tiny change in your deck will shift the odds in different match-ups. Preparing your decks is going to be the hardest part and that will surely be not so easily solvable by AI. So, I am with Fisheye on this one (HS vs HUFL).

As for comparing an RTS game to HU NLHE, I'd say I favor poker although the two are quite different activities.

Fishy,

I agree with a lot of your points and especially that this is a "feel based" conversation it's hard to prove anything and it's probably more suited as a fun talk over some beers. The one below as the only thing that needed a response

On November 17 2015 10:50 FiSheYe wrote: Starcraft's APM combined with strategy and psychology opens up a WAY bigger decision tree than NLHU, as you can make a ton of moves every second of every minute of every game.

I see what you are saying with this and it's something I considered as well. However I don't think it opens up the "effective game tree" very much because 99% of the movements we can make in BW are horrible and not worth considering. Also IMO, if we had a super computer with 1 million APM it'd limit the number of potential strategies by a lot since slow units would be horrible, strategies that use units with the best acceleration/deceleration/attack animation would dominate all others to the point they would be unusable. There is kind of a real life example of this of koreans in zerg vs zerg, as soon as they learned how to micro mutalisks properly, hydras were never used anymore and would automatically lose vs korean mutalisk micro, as would inferior mutalisk micro from foreigners.


btw I'm interested in bo100 random vs random BW for some decent sum of $

last time i played was 2012 about 1-200 games

On November 18 2015 09:40 Expiate wrote: @AndrewSong: The hard tasks in HS won't be mulligans or turn decisions in the future, rather deck building. If the tournament scene of HS gets bigger, then a very tiny change in your deck will shift the odds in different match-ups. Preparing your decks is going to be the hardest part and that will surely be not so easily solvable by AI.

good point imo

Yes deck building is by far the most difficult thing in Hearstone, the only reason why we dont feel a huge skill gap is because we are allowed to copy decks from the internet

yeah the "incomplete information" part of HS is much less of a factor, even without being able to copy online decks, you can learn someones deck after playing them 2-3 games

the incomplete information aspect in poker is much bigger though, we have 100s of stats and 1000s of hands on a guy and still sometimes say "not big enough sample to know what he's doing..."