UFC FN 76: Poirier vs. Duffy

Date: Sunday, October 24th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 18:15 LP.net / 10:15am PST / 1:15pm EST
Main Card (UFC Fight Pass): 21:00 LP.net / 1pm PST / 4pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Patrick Holohan (12-1-1) vs. Louis Smolka (9-1) (Flyweight)
Norman Parke (20-4-1) vs. Reza Madadi (13-3) (Lightweight)
Nicolas Dalby (14-0) vs. Darren Till (13-0) (Welterweight)
Neil Seery (15-11) vs. Jon Delos Reyes (8-4) (Flyweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Stevie Ray (18-5) vs. Mickael Lebout (14-4-1) (Lightweight)
Scott Askham (13-1) vs. Krzysztof Jotko (15-1) (Middleweight)
Aisling Daly (15-6) vs. Ericka Almeida (7-1) (Women's Strawweight)
Cathal Pendred (17-3-1) vs. Tom Breese (8-0) (Welterweight)
Darren Elkins (18-5) vs. Robert Whiteford (12-2) (Featherweight)
Bubba Bush (8-2) vs. Garreth McLellan (12-3) (Middleweight)

Other

- The co-main event was expected to feature a heavyweight bout with potential UFC Heavyweight Championship title implications between Stipe Miocic and Ben Rothwell. However, Miocic pulled out of the fight on October 13 citing injury. Subsequently, Rothwell was removed from the card the following day after the promotion deemed that a suitable opponent could not be arranged on short notice.
- The event was expected to be headlined by a lightweight bout between Dustin Poirier and Joseph Duffy. However, Duffy was forced to pull out of the fight on October 21, three days prior to the event, due to a mild concussion and the fight was scrapped. A flyweight bout between Patrick Holohan and Louis Smolka was promoted to event headliner.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Duffy > Poirier
• Miocic > Rothwell
• Dalby > Till
• Smolka > Holohan
• Madadi > Parke
• Ray > Lebout
• Reyes > Seery
• Askham > Jotko
• Daly > Almeida
• Pendred > Breese
• Elkins > Whiteford
• Bush > McLellan

Duffy > Poirier
Miocic > Rothwell
Dalby v Till - Pickem
Holohan > Smolka
Madadi vs Parke - Won't know until weigh-ins
Ray > Lebout
Reyes > Seery
Askham > Jotko
Daly v Almeia - Pickem
Breese > Pendred
Whiteford > Elkins
Bush v McLellan - No clue

Bets Placed (As usual, will be updated as more bets are placed). Happy to have crushed the Steve Ray line. I expect him to end up at -500 + and I got him at -270 for one of my biggest individual bets yet.

+ Show Spoiler +

How do you guys think the style matchup will go on Dalby V Till? I really like Till's potential and already put a bet on him but realize Dalby is really fundamentally sound so I'm not that confident. Maybe it's weird but I can almost compare Till to Felder in that there's a lot of unrefined potential but I feel like Till's fight IQ is better.

I guess I can only say Till's fight IQ is better in hindsight after watching a bit of...not very fluid fighting from Felder recently

On October 11 2015 22:34 iakim322 wrote: How do you guys think the style matchup will go on Dalby V Till? I really like Till's potential and already put a bet on him but realize Dalby is really fundamentally sound so I'm not that confident. Maybe it's weird but I can almost compare Till to Felder in that there's a lot of unrefined potential but I feel like Till's fight IQ is better.

I want Till to win, but if I were betting money on this fight, I'd go medium on Dalby -135 or better and hedge with Till KO/TKO prop. Till has power, but Dalby does have a good chin.

I don't think Dalby will finish Till. I see Dalby clinching a lot for take downs, forcing Till to defend and not get a lot of punches off. Till will probably lose this fight via decision and learn from his mistakes, and come back stronger in his next fight.

It'd be cool to see Till show some elite TDD and force Dalby to stand with him, but I doubt it'll happen for 3 rounds.

On October 11 2015 22:40 iakim322 wrote: I guess I can only say Till's fight IQ is better in hindsight after watching a bit of...not very fluid fighting from Felder recently

I took the over and have stayed away from making a pick. Both guys have good cardio so I don't see either gassing and giving up a finish that way, and neither have devastating power although Till is able to generate more because of his frame. No way to know how much Till will have improved or who will come in with a better gameplan / fight IQ - which is likely what this will come down to. Dalby seems like more of a finished product, less dangerous but more well-rounded. Till has some cool body/inside leg kicks and a nice straight left, the typical power striking southpaw stuff, but I'm not nearly as impressed with him in the pocket as him at kicking range. Also, he seems a bit too passive for my taste - probably because he's not the greatest defensive wrestler, but that's just speculation. If his game doesn't have solid layering beyond his solid distance-based Muai Thai than hes likely to get outpointed via a boring mix of grappling and clinch-control from Dalby. Just no way to know from what I've seen, but I only watched a couple of Till's fights.

I would say I hope I'm wrong since I think Till is easily the more exciting prospect, but I bet the over so now I hope I'm right ^^

PS - As for that Felder v Pearson fight, which I actually really do like the comparison - there is not 1 person who's opinion I respect who gave Pearson a 1/4 shot to win that fight. I'm not even saying it was a fluke, there was just no way to have predicted that Felder's boxing and footwork was so far behind his Muai Thai and Pearson fought an absolutely perfect fight. It was the perfect storm for a not-very-live dog to win. It happens now and then. I really don't think anyone picking Pearson even saw it going that way.

I'm starting to see some value in Ben Rothwell, you guys think he can win?

On October 13 2015 17:42 Minsk wrote: I'm starting to see some value in Ben Rothwell, you guys think he can win?

Ben has decent cardio, sick good chin, more power than Stipe, and he also has unorthodox striking and movement. He can win, be he's the rightful underdog.

Dunno what I cap him at.

Miocic out injured, this is officially the worst card in UFC history ffs

On October 13 2015 21:50 Baalim wrote: Miocic out injured, this is officially the worst card in UFC history ffs

Not even close to being the worst card in UFC history. The shitty cards they put on in Macau are always worse than this.

Stipe/Ben isn't why most people wanted to watch this card, so it's not a massive loss. Sucks for Ben though, as he's on a good run and he barely gets any fights.

DraftKings free roll with $400 for 1st place: https://www.draftkings.com/contest/draftteam/11184174

Not the right topic but Okami is -175 vs Fitch seems like a great deal.

On October 15 2015 20:40 Nazgul wrote: Not the right topic but Okami is -175 vs Fitch seems like a great deal.

The fight is in the WSOF, so I expect a weird result.

People will bet o2.5 rounds at -190 to -250, and Fitch will win via TKO, or something.

On October 15 2015 20:40 Nazgul wrote: Not the right topic but Okami is -175 vs Fitch seems like a great deal.

Thanks for the heads up, just bet him

On October 15 2015 22:34 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On October 15 2015 20:40 Nazgul wrote: Not the right topic but Okami is -175 vs Fitch seems like a great deal. The fight is in the WSOF, so I expect a weird result. People will bet o2.5 rounds at -190 to -250, and Fitch will win via TKO, or something.

So true. Also no clue how Okami is making 170. Not touching that fight.

My only bet on that card right now is the Newell/Marcalino o 1.5 rds at -140. Neither guy can KO the other and Marcalino isn't a terrible grappler (I don't think from what I've seen). It's now at -170, sorry didn't post yesterday, doubt anyone cares anyway.

On October 15 2015 23:47 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On October 15 2015 22:34 PuertoRican wrote:   On October 15 2015 20:40 Nazgul wrote: Not the right topic but Okami is -175 vs Fitch seems like a great deal. The fight is in the WSOF, so I expect a weird result. People will bet o2.5 rounds at -190 to -250, and Fitch will win via TKO, or something. So true. Also no clue how Okami is making 170. Not touching that fight. My only bet on that card right now is the Newell/Marcalino o 1.5 rds at -140. Neither guy can KO the other and Marcalino isn't a terrible grappler (I don't think from what I've seen). It's now at -170, sorry didn't post yesterday, doubt anyone cares anyway.

Yep, Okami is dropping to 170 for this fight, and everyone knows that your chin isn't as strong when you drop weight. Think it has something with water in the brain, don't really know the science behind it, I only know the cold-hard-facts that I've seen in the UFC with weight cutters.

I have a ton of studying to do this weekend, so I won't be watching WSOF. Maybe the ME, maybe not.

I gotta admit I didn't do enough research and thought this would be at 185 considering there's no way Okami's body should be able to fit into 170 ROFL.

On October 16 2015 01:45 Nazgul wrote: I gotta admit I didn't do enough research and thought this would be at 185 considering there's no way Okami's body should be able to fit into 170 ROFL.

BJ Penn was able to get down to 145, and he looked pretty good.

/sarcasm

He's not THAT much bigger than KDH is he, and KDH seems to make WW fine?

+ Show Spoiler + [size comparison]

He's a bit bigger sure, but not outrageously so. Still, being the first time Okami has to make WW since like 2006 and he's no spring chicken anymore... Bit concerning.

On October 13 2015 22:58 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On October 13 2015 21:50 Baalim wrote: Miocic out injured, this is officially the worst card in UFC history ffs Not even close to being the worst card in UFC history. The shitty cards they put on in Macau are always worse than this. Stipe/Ben isn't why most people wanted to watch this card, so it's not a massive loss. Sucks for Ben though, as he's on a good run and he barely gets any fights.

I wasnt trying to be literal, but still incredibly shitty card

On October 16 2015 06:48 TianYuan wrote: He's not THAT much bigger than KDH is he, and KDH seems to make WW fine? + Show Spoiler + [size comparison] He's a bit bigger sure, but not outrageously so. Still, being the first time Okami has to make WW since like 2006 and he's no spring chicken anymore... Bit concerning.

I would take a slightly different angle. Thatch and Dong Hyun Kim are probably the largest WW's in the UFC and Okami is bigger

wow lol

Just put $645 on Hunt vs Bigfoot at -215, what a steal.

deleted, point already made by Nazgul

On October 16 2015 11:48 Nazgul wrote: wow lol Just put $645 on Hunt vs Bigfoot at -215, what a steal.

Smart man.

Better chin, better movement, better puncher, harder hitter, and he has Soa by his side to act as a big body that is always trying to clinch and take him down (Soa can't do much else). Everyone in this thread already knows the status of Bigfoot and his post-TRT chin.

Hunt is the only "hometown" guy on the main card, so that will be big for him as well. Crowd support and judge support, but I doubt it'll reach the 3rd round.

Odds just came out for UFC 193 prelims.

Dropped put pretty fat bet on Mathews (-505) > Areola and Villante (-305) > Perosh (parlay)

Think Mathews will be -1000 by fight time easy.

Fitch and Okami both made weight for those wondering

On October 16 2015 11:30 Nazgul wrote: Show nested quote + On October 16 2015 06:48 TianYuan wrote: He's not THAT much bigger than KDH is he, and KDH seems to make WW fine? + Show Spoiler + [size comparison] He's a bit bigger sure, but not outrageously so. Still, being the first time Okami has to make WW since like 2006 and he's no spring chicken anymore... Bit concerning. I would take a slightly different angle. Thatch and Dong Hyun Kim are probably the largest WW's in the UFC and Okami is bigger

Hm sure they are big, but there are bigger in height at least:
http://fightnomics.com/category/blog/big-ufc-welterweight/
Magny, Maia, Lim, Saunders, Condit, Ferreira. Tho I don't suppose most of them are carrying as much mass as him.

Lotto ticket, I would like to use my "one time" here.

On October 17 2015 17:27 HaiVan wrote: Lotto ticket, I would like to use my "one time" here.

All those underdogs have a chance, except for Lebout. He can't take Ray down, which means he can't get a submission, which then means he'll get TKO'ed at some point because his striking and striking defense is below average.

$25.00 $198.75 Pending 10/17/15 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 3205 Hamill wins inside distance +795* vs Not Hamill inside distance
$25.00 $137.50 Pending 10/17/15 9:00pm WSOF Fighting 3301 Tommy Marcellino +550* vs Nick Newell
$105.00 $75.00 Pending 10/17/15 9:00pm WSOF Fighting 3301 Tommy Marcellino/Nick Newell Over 1½ -140*
$52.50 $35.00 Pending 10/17/15 9:00pm WSOF Fighting 3002 Yushin Okami -150* vs Jon Fitch

Some degen bets I just made. I think they are decent.

On October 18 2015 00:34 soberstone wrote: $25.00 $198.75 Pending 10/17/15 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 3205 Hamill wins inside distance +795* vs Not Hamill inside distance $25.00 $137.50 Pending 10/17/15 9:00pm WSOF Fighting 3301 Tommy Marcellino +550* vs Nick Newell $105.00 $75.00 Pending 10/17/15 9:00pm WSOF Fighting 3301 Tommy Marcellino/Nick Newell Over 1½ -140* $52.50 $35.00 Pending 10/17/15 9:00pm WSOF Fighting 3002 Yushin Okami -150* vs Jon Fitch Some degen bets I just made. I think they are decent.

Just tuned in right when the 2nd round of the Nick Newell fight started. Nick looks gassed imo.

Rofl. Made money so far cuz the over hit.

But getting really screwed not hitting some big dog bets.

Newell lost and might have even tapped yet he gets a UD, and Magalhaes gets rocked bad and Hammill dives in and gets heel-hooked.

Okami doesn't look healthy right now (before the fight started). He didn't re-hydrate well, imo, and his face is paler than the rest of his body (his entire body is pale, but his face is worse).

----------

Barely paid attention to the Fitch/Okami "fight." It was the epitome of a grapple-fest.

Congrats to Fitch on doing what he does best: boring the crowd, losing fans, and doing everything in his power to not make himself a big star.

On October 16 2015 01:45 Nazgul wrote: I gotta admit I didn't do enough research and thought this would be at 185 considering there's no way Okami's body should be able to fit into 170 ROFL.

Fitch is still the second nuts at 170 imo.

damnit Fitch

On October 16 2015 11:48 Nazgul wrote: wow lol Just put $645 on Hunt vs Bigfoot at -215, what a steal.

I put some bank on hunt at -220 two weeks ago. Looked great to me

On October 18 2015 19:11 traxamillion wrote: Show nested quote + On October 16 2015 11:48 Nazgul wrote: wow lol Just put $645 on Hunt vs Bigfoot at -215, what a steal. I put some bank on hunt at -220 two weeks ago. Looked great to me

Yeah, I agree, I see absolutely no way Bigfoot is winning that fight.

anyone know a site where i can watch past WSOF events?

WTF?

Miocic pulled out of this card due to injury. Miocic was just rebooked for January 2nd against Arlovski. Arlovski is a bigger name and is ranked at #4, which is higher than Ben Rothwell.

Miocic is basically getting rewarded for ruining thr co-main evejt of this Ireland card, while Rothwell continues to get pushed to the side.

On October 13 2015 21:50 Baalim wrote: Miocic out injured, this is officially the worst card in UFC history ffs

i disagreed with u because of main event which was quite exciting

With duffy out, this card is pretty weak now.

On October 21 2015 22:42 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On October 13 2015 21:50 Baalim wrote: Miocic out injured, this is officially the worst card in UFC history ffs i disagreed with u because of main event which was quite exciting With duffy out, this card is pretty weak now.

You're saying Patrick Holohan vs. Louis Smolka as the Main Event doesn't excite you???

How about Norman Parke vs. Reza Madadi as the co-main!

FML... I was excited for this card.

On October 21 2015 18:55 PuertoRican wrote: WTF? Miocic pulled out of this card due to injury. Miocic was just rebooked for January 2nd against Arlovski. Arlovski is a bigger name and is ranked at #4, which is higher than Ben Rothwell. Miocic is basically getting rewarded for ruining the co-main event of this Ireland card, while Rothwell continues to get pushed to the side.

On October 13 2015 21:50 Baalim wrote: Miocic out injured, this is officially the worst card in UFC history ffs

Lol two only interesting fights in the card were cancelled, now its officially the worst card ever and literally speaking.

Main Card: Friday at 6pm PST / 9pm EST.

Brandon Halsey vs. Rafael Carvalho (Bellator Middleweight Championship)
Brennan Ward vs. Dennis Olson
Goiti Yamauchi vs. Isao Kobayashi
Michael Page vs. Charlie Ontiveros

Ah the streak comes to and end.... finally.

Bad day thanks to Smolka beasting that Main Event. I was big on Holohan.

- $210 on the weekend.

Shitty card, and a bunch of weird shit happened, so it was impossible to win on DraftKings today.

The only good fight was Darren Till vs. Nicolas Dalby, and the only two other semi entertaining fights were Neil Seery vs. Jon Delos Reyes and Louis Smolka vs. Paddy Holohan (both of which ended in round 2).

The next UFC card is in 2 weeks. Vitor Belfort vs. Dan Henderson in Brazil. There's basically no good cards in October and November, because December is STACKED.

On October 24 2015 22:13 PuertoRican wrote: Shitty card, and a bunch of weird shit happened, so it was impossible to win on DraftKings today. The only good fight was Darren Till vs. Nicolas Dalby, and the only two other semi entertaining fights were Neil Seery vs. Jon Delos Reyes and Louis Smolka vs. Paddy Holohan (both of which ended in round 2). The next UFC card is in 2 weeks. Vitor Belfort vs. Dan Henderson in Brazil. There's basically no good cards in October and November, because December is STACKED.

Yah, I think they are moving in a seasonal direction where December - May/Early June is gonna be stacked and then there's maybe 2-3 big cards other than that. I think they inflated the roster the last year and a half to saturate new markets, fill TV obligations, and figure out who the prospects worth keeping were so other organizations didn't swoop them up. Now they will lower the amount of events as stated above (still probably 40 a year, as opposed to 55) and they will be much more appealing with new prospects and less journeyman and cans. While everyone bitched and whined about over-saturation, I think they have a nice 5 year (arbitrary number) plan in place and it's working out nicely thus far, in spite of the joke Reebok partnership (on Reebok's end especially, they are just awful) and same old injury problems.