UFC FN 71: Mir vs. Duffee

Date: Wednesday, July 15th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:59 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 3:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Frank Mir (17-9) vs. Todd Duffee (9-2) (Heavyweight)
Josh Thomson (20-7) vs. Tony Ferguson (18-3) (Lightweight)
Holly Holm (8-0) vs. Marion Reneau (6-1) (Women's Bantamweight)
Scott Jorgensen (15-10) vs. Manvel Gamburyan (14-8) (Bantamweight)
Kevin Lee (10-1) vs. James Moontasri (8-2) (Lightweight)
Alan Jouban (11-3) vs. Matt Dwyer (8-2) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Sam Sicilia (14-5) vs. Yaotzin Meza (21-9) (Featherweight)
Jessica Andrade (12-4) vs. Sarah Moras (4-1) (Women's Bantamweight)
Rani Yahya (20-8) vs. Masanori Kanehara (25-11-5) (Bantamweight)
Igor Araujo (25-7) vs. Sean Strickland (15-1) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Kevin Casey (8-3) vs. Ildemar Alcantara (21-7) (Middleweight)
Andrew Craig (9-3) vs. Lyman Good (18-3) (Welterweight)

Other

• Bobby Green was expected to face Al Iaquinta at the event. However, Green pulled out of the fight on June 17 due to an ACL tear and was replaced by former WEC and Strikeforce Lightweight champion Gilbert Melendez. On July 6, it was announced that Melendez tested positive for testosterone metabolites of an exogenous origin at UFC 188. He denied using anything, but stated that he is "responsible for the products he uses and their implications." Melendez was suspended one year, effective from the date of his last bout. As a result, he was pulled from the fight against Iaquinta, who in turn, was also removed from the card.
• A featherweight bout between Rani Yahya and Masanori Kanehara initially slated for UFC Fight Night 70, was shifted to this event, as several participants on that card were unable to secure travel visas in time for that event restricting their travel to the United States.
• Edgar Garcia was expected to face Andrew Craig at the event. However, Garcia was forced from the bout with injury and replaced by promotional newcomer Lyman Good.
• Doo Ho Choi was expected to face Sam Sicilia at the event. However, Choi pulled out of the fight in late June due to broken ribs in training and was replaced by Yaotzin Meza.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Duffee > Mir
• Ferguson > Thomson
• Reneau > Holm
• Gamburyan > Jorgensen
• Lee > Moontasri
• Jouban > Dwyer
• Sicilia > Meza
• Andrade > Moras
• Yahya > Kanehara
• Strickland > Araujo
• Casey > Alcantara
• Good > Craig

I am betting on Duffee by KO and maybe Thompson for that odds (+165)

Sick of them fighting. They should make peace.

How is thompson a dog to Furgeson? He could easily be on a 5 fight win streak against Noons, Gil, Nate, Bendo, and Green. His losses were all close and think he absolutely should of got the decisions against Bendo at the very least.

I haven't seen Tonys last couple fights though so I dunno.

On July 14 2015 23:21 Stim_Abuser wrote: How is thompson a dog to Furgeson? He could easily be on a 5 fight win streak against Noons, Gil, Nate, Bendo, and Green. His losses were all close and think he absolutely should of got the decisions against Bendo at the very least. I haven't seen Tonys last couple fights though so I dunno.

Ferguson will have 5 inch reach advantage, is 5 years younger, Thomson hasn't fought for a year and is getting old at 36.
And ferguson has been a monster recently.

That being said, your argument is valid, and +175 is pretty good odds.

Todd Duffee (241) vs. Frank Mir (262)
Tony Ferguson (156) vs. Josh Thomson (155.5)
Holly Holm (135) vs. Marion Reneau (134.5)
Manny Gamburyan (135) vs. Scott Jorgensen (135)
Kevin Lee (156) vs. James Moontasri (155)
Matt Dwyer (169) vs. Alan Jouban (170.5)
Yaotzin Meza (145.5) vs. Sam Sicilia (146)
Jessica Andrade (134.5) vs. Sarah Moras (135.5)
Masanori Kanehara (136) vs. Rani Yahya (135.5)
Igor Araujo (171) vs. Sean Strickland (171)
Ildemar Alcantara (185.5) vs. Kevin Casey (185.5)
Andrew Craig (170.5) vs. Lyman Good (170)

On July 14 2015 23:21 Stim_Abuser wrote: How is thompson a dog to Furgeson? He could easily be on a 5 fight win streak against Noons, Gil, Nate, Bendo, and Green. His losses were all close and think he absolutely should of got the decisions against Bendo at the very least. I haven't seen Tonys last couple fights though so I dunno.

;/

Running hot and up 50 units on the year so I'm gonna be a little belligerent and try and hit big on Sicilia, dropping like $290 in bets on him which isn't even close to proper bankrolling but I don't give a shit, he's in all my parlays and have a prop on him. As average as I consider Sicilia to be, I think Meza is just awful. Probably a bit spewy on my end since I haven't like re-watched fights or anything and am just going off memory, nothing technical.

As far as the real main event, Ferguson vs Thompson, I think Ferguson has far more paths to victory in terms of finishing the fight and is just at a way better point in his career arch, so I put him in some parlays but I realize Thompson is being disrespected with the moneyline itself and could craft his way to a decision so I hedged it with that prop - I don't see him finishing Ferguson.

Already have Duffee in a prop still alive from over the weekend but don't feel that great about it at -190 because it's heavyweight so I didn't put anything else down on him. He'll probably knock out Mir in the first 3 minutes of the fight.

I bet on Holm because while I do think Renaeu is really good, I think Holm looked scared of the moment and tentative in her debut even though she won, it was really underwhelming, and I think the perception of how good she is is probably pretty skewed. She should be so far superior athletically that unless she is completely gun-shy again, she should be able to fight at her pace on the outside and outstrike Renaeu in a kickboxing match, doubt she finishes a tough a girl as Renaeu though.

Lee vs Moontasri is a good fight, I think Lee should outwrestle and cardio Moontasri to a decision but he good get caught with something big as Moontasri throws all kinds of heat, so I hedged with the KO prop.

My bets:

Sicilia wins In The Distance - $40.00 @+140 To win $56
Thompson via Decision - $80.00 @ +275 To win $220
Holm via Decision - $30.00 @ +155 To Win $46.5
Moontasri via TKO/KO - $10.00 @ +840 To Win $84
Jorgenson / Gamburyan Goes Distance - $26.25 @ -175 To Win $15
Ferguson + Sicilia Parlay - $100.00 @ +140 To Win $139.85
Ferguson + Sicilia + Holm Parlay - $40.00 @ +255 to Win $103.9
Holm + Lee + Sicilia + Andrade Parlay - $50.00 @ +326 to Win 163.05

From Dana White's Instagram:

Ferguson looked bad to me and I think he's weighed below 156 before, while Thompson looked ridiculous. I'm gonna hedge that bet even harder I think.

Also thinking about betting Reneau by sub and hedging some of that action.

Just put down a parlay with Jessica Andrade (-335) > Sarah Moreas + Leon Edwards (-235) > Pawal Palak. Those fights should all be absolute locks and the Edwards line is gonna absolutely move. I've been dead on about line movement on future cards if nothing else and you can bash me if Edwards doesn't end up at -270+ by fight time as long as he looks normal at weigh ins. He should absolutely destroy Palak.

Decided to bet the under 2.5 rds +150 for $100 to win $150 in the Fergusson v Thompson fight to semi-hedge the Thompson by Decision and Fergusson SU bets. I really think something is up with Ferguson and what I've noticed with tough and offensive fighters is that when they come in under 100 percent they just go for it early and either pay or get it done and +150 is pretty good odds given that scenario with a guy as dangerous as Ferguson and a guy as crafty as Thompson is sort of in the do or die portion of his career.

On July 15 2015 01:47 PuertoRican wrote: From Dana White's Instagram:

lol wow.

I don't have any bets yet, but out of the current lines, I'm interested in betting:

Reneau +180
Dwyer KO/TKO +600
Kanehara -110
Casey -105

I'll place my bets sometime tomorrow. I'm keeping everything small for this event since we have 4 events this week; 2 UFC, 1 Bellator, 1 Titan FC. UFC and Titan are on Saturday at different times, and both are hosted on UFC Fight Pass.

Jouban - gamburyan - lee (Parlay)

Yahya

strickland - andrade (Parlay)

Good - Casey (Parlay)

Andrade - Sicilia - Lee - Holm (Parlay)

Thomson - Duffee (Parlay)

Andrade - Edwards (Parlay)

On July 15 2015 04:28 traxamillion wrote: Jouban - gamburyan - lee (Parlay)

Hedge this with Dwyer KO/TKO +650.

I love me some Jouban, but he gets tagged in his fights, and while Dwyer is relatively thin and tall for the weight class, he packs some power in his punches.

Added Jouban by submission at +650.

On July 15 2015 00:20 soberstone wrote: Running hot and up 50 units on the year so I'm gonna be a little belligerent and try and hit big on Sicilia, dropping like $290 in bets on him which isn't even close to proper bankrolling but I don't give a shit, he's in all my parlays and have a prop on him. As average as I consider Sicilia to be, I think Meza is just awful. Probably a bit spewy on my end since I haven't like re-watched fights or anything and am just going off memory, nothing technical. As far as the real main event, Ferguson vs Thompson, I think Ferguson has far more paths to victory in terms of finishing the fight and is just at a way better point in his career arch, so I put him in some parlays but I realize Thompson is being disrespected with the moneyline itself and could craft his way to a decision so I hedged it with that prop - I don't see him finishing Ferguson. Already have Duffee in a prop still alive from over the weekend but don't feel that great about it at -190 because it's heavyweight so I didn't put anything else down on him. He'll probably knock out Mir in the first 3 minutes of the fight. I bet on Holm because while I do think Renaeu is really good, I think Holm looked scared of the moment and tentative in her debut even though she won, it was really underwhelming, and I think the perception of how good she is is probably pretty skewed. She should be so far superior athletically that unless she is completely gun-shy again, she should be able to fight at her pace on the outside and outstrike Renaeu in a kickboxing match, doubt she finishes a tough a girl as Renaeu though. Lee vs Moontasri is a good fight, I think Lee should outwrestle and cardio Moontasri to a decision but he good get caught with something big as Moontasri throws all kinds of heat, so I hedged with the KO prop. My bets: Sicilia wins In The Distance - $40.00 @+140 To win $56 Thompson via Decision - $80.00 @ +275 To win $220 Holm via Decision - $30.00 @ +155 To Win $46.5 Moontasri via TKO/KO - $10.00 @ +840 To Win $84 Jorgenson / Gamburyan Goes Distance - $26.25 @ -175 To Win $15 Ferguson + Sicilia Parlay - $100.00 @ +140 To Win $139.85 Ferguson + Sicilia + Holm Parlay - $40.00 @ +255 to Win $103.9 Holm + Lee + Sicilia + Andrade Parlay - $50.00 @ +326 to Win 163.05

Hey man some comments on what you said:

agreed for ferguson, hes a monster
I bet on Mir because of the odds. Dufee looked really good, but he has fought much lower level of opposition. And its heavyweight.
Marion couldn't even stand with Andrade, i think Holm will destroy her on the feet. Imo, Marion's only path to victory is subs, which could happen, but not at +200 odds.
I also think Lee is a great bet, even tho odds arent great
I think i'm gonna go for Meza. 7 inch advantage and great odds. i liked him in his last fight

On July 15 2015 04:33 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On July 15 2015 04:28 traxamillion wrote: Jouban - gamburyan - lee (Parlay) Hedge this with Dwyer KO/TKO +650. I love me some Jouban, but he gets tagged in his fights, and while Dwyer is relatively thin and tall for the weight class, he packs some power in his punches.

right on will do. May have to make an account on a site other than Bovada in order to access the props. thanks

My bets pre-live betting:

+ Show Spoiler +

McGregor opened at -180 vs Aldo. Some money has come in on Aldo to move it to -170.

Definitely a dog or pass situation at those odds unless McGregor looked great at weigh-ins and Aldo looked bad or something like that.

Andrew Craig is the most clear case of "I'm clearly off steroids now and it's obvious I was on them before" since Belfort. Then again, Belfort was still probably on something.

Edit: Man, props are frozen on Maker and I really want to take Thompson via sub at +1080

Nice debut for Lyman Good. His cardio and striking improved since the last time I saw him fight.

GL on Alcantara Rican, I woulda tailed that bet but Casey looks like he's still on the juice so it makes me nervous because Alcantara isn't great but is definitely the better fighter.

Edit: Actually Casey looks a little softer. I agree.

On July 15 2015 23:29 soberstone wrote: GL on Alcantara Rican, I woulda tailed that bet but Casey looks like he's still on the juice so it makes me nervous because Alcantara isn't great but is definitely the better fighter.

It's a risky fight for either guy, which the line suggests.

Casey isn't as ripped as before his failed drug test, but he's still big. He used to have cardio issues, so if he doesn't finish in round 1, the lack of juice might work against Casey.

Also, Casey said he was recently drug tested in an interview I heard of him, so I assume he's "clean."

On July 15 2015 23:31 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On July 15 2015 23:29 soberstone wrote: GL on Alcantara Rican, I woulda tailed that bet but Casey looks like he's still on the juice so it makes me nervous because Alcantara isn't great but is definitely the better fighter. It's a risky fight for either guy, which the line suggests. Casey isn't as ripped as before his failed drug test, but he's still big. He used to have cardio issues, so if he doesn't finish in round 1, the lack of juice might work against Casey. Also, Casey said he was recently drug tested in an interview I heard of him, so I assume he's "clean."

Ya if I could livebet Alcantara right now at juicy odds right now I would. (After rd 1)

And I'm glad I didn't. Rofl at Alcantara raising his hands.

Easy win for Casey. Alcantara was just too passive, and will get released after this loss.

If you haven't seen this and don't watch you are robbing yourself. And yes that is Spencer Pratt from The Hills.

Hes almost like a black Conor McGregor.

So yea, FML, Thompson sub line moved 300 points before it open up and I could get it. Still put $20 on it at +800.

Strickland... faggot could've gotten a finish if he tried. Should've been stopped in round 1, though.

On July 16 2015 00:24 PuertoRican wrote: Strickland... faggot could've gotten a finish if he tried. Should've been stopped in round 1, though.

Yea, that Arujo guy was just the worst jobber ever haha.

Strickland needs to understand that if he gets a finish there, he gets another decent matchup, now he probably gets someone much tougher.

On July 15 2015 23:21 soberstone wrote: McGregor opened at -180 vs Aldo. Some money has come in on Aldo to move it to -170. Definitely a dog or pass situation at those odds unless McGregor looked great at weigh-ins and Aldo looked bad or something like that. Andrew Craig is the most clear case of "I'm clearly off steroids now and it's obvious I was on them before" since Belfort. Then again, Belfort was still probably on something. Edit: Man, props are frozen on Maker and I really want to take Thompson via sub at +1080

I think Aldo might struggle with Conors smothering pressure style he showed against Mendes. The big question is will Aldo try to get him down? If so I think he probably can and if it hits the mat Conor is gonna be at a huge disadvantage.

On July 16 2015 00:45 Stim_Abuser wrote: Show nested quote + On July 15 2015 23:21 soberstone wrote: McGregor opened at -180 vs Aldo. Some money has come in on Aldo to move it to -170. Definitely a dog or pass situation at those odds unless McGregor looked great at weigh-ins and Aldo looked bad or something like that. Andrew Craig is the most clear case of "I'm clearly off steroids now and it's obvious I was on them before" since Belfort. Then again, Belfort was still probably on something. Edit: Man, props are frozen on Maker and I really want to take Thompson via sub at +1080 I think Aldo might struggle with Conors smothering pressure style he showed against Mendes. The big question is will Aldo try to get him down? If so I think he probably can and if it hits the mat Conor is gonna be at a huge disadvantage.

I don't think Aldo would be wise to look for takedown's unless they are well timed during exchanges, he gets stuffed a couple times and he's prone to gassing. He's not a straight offensive wrestling dynamo like Chad but his timing is probably excellent on changing levels. IMO It's gonna come down to Aldo's impeccable footwork and hand-speed vs Conor's power and pressure/volume for sure to see if the exchanges are in the middle of the cage (heavily favors Aldo) or with Aldo against the fence (even more heavily favors McGregor)

I agree if he does get on top of Conor he can probably tap him a lot of the time.

Wow. Robbery.

wtf... Seriously...

what a fucking joke.

i bet on Yahya and i was sure i lost my bet

They should wait until the next day and watch fights replays before they declare the winner. In some theoretical universe.

On July 16 2015 01:10 Minsk wrote: They should wait until the next day and watch fights replays before they declare the winner. In some theoretical universe.

I was actually thinking about that the other day lol. But it just woudn't work for obvious reasons.

I think a real solution is to make them wear noise cancelling headphones and watch a monitor with no commentary, even though that had nothing to do with the Yaya robbery.

Bink that Andrade, almost shit my pants when the RNC got locked up with 10 seconds left after a 14:50 seconds ass whooping.

Next i got Meza at +220!

Wouldn't be surprised if Moras got the boot after this fight. She's only 1-1 in the UFC, but she should actually be 0-2. She's a terrible fighter who hasn't improved in the time she's been away from the octagon.

OK hear we go Sicilia, big fight for me here.

Edit: sorry floofy I know were battling here

well you clearly got r1 here.

But keep in mind i don't expect to win all my +220 bets

Got 20 on Duffee by first round KO.

On July 16 2015 01:45 Floofy wrote: well you clearly got r1 here. But keep in mind i don't expect to win all my +220 bets

Did you see that Yahya decision? Nothing is clear lol.

Just livebet Meza at +457 after rd 2. Phew. I'm covered either way but obv still way better if Sicilia wins

On July 16 2015 01:51 soberstone wrote: Just livebet Meza at +457 after rd 2. Phew. I'm covered either way but obv still way better if Sicilia wins

i also added a bet on Meza at +480
I think he might get the r2

Sicilia's gameplan was absolutely atrocious, almost got himself subbed, but glad he won barring a robbery anyway. All Meza has is some decent Jitsu.

Yea as i thought Meza had round 2. I still think that +480 bet was smart.

On July 16 2015 01:59 Floofy wrote: Yea as i thought Meza had round 2. I still think that +480 bet was smart.

I agree, especially as a hedge.

But I really think Sicilia wins that fight 8/10 times..... not the lock I thought he was but yah

Fucking phenomenal fight. Don't have any betting interest but I hope it's Jouban and not a draw. He already got fucked vs Warley Alves.

decision, decision, decision, decision, decision, decision, decision...

On July 16 2015 02:34 PuertoRican wrote: decision, decision, decision, decision, decision, decision, decision...

Well, if that Jouban fight didn't do it for you and you want some finishing, I'm sure Mir v Duffee will satisfy your bloodlust

Whew was worried had jouban on most parlays

That fight just shows how good Albert Tumenov is. Remember that name, I think he's gonna be challenging for a title within a couple years.

Great RNC by Lee, that was really high level stuff switching the body triangle when Moontasri tried to roll to his side and than changing his hand grip like 3 times to maximize leverage. Great stuff from a 22 year old blue-chipper.

Just threw down a bet on Jorgenson by decision at +263. I think he's easily live vs Gamburyan, it's just how far he's fallen.

On July 16 2015 03:05 soberstone wrote: Just threw down a bet on Jorgenson by decision at +263. I think he's easily live vs Gamburyan, it's just how far he's fallen.

Pretty far.

Fuck yah, Holm is a beast. Fuck that crowd. Boring fight cuz Reneau couldn't do shit.

Holm vs Marion = easiest money ever. Went exactly as i expected.

Holm actually showed even better fight IQ than i thought.

On July 16 2015 04:00 soberstone wrote: Fuck yah, Holm is a beast. Fuck that crowd. Boring fight cuz Reneau couldn't do shit.

Reneau didn't do shit, it wasn't that she couldn't.

Reneau didn't do anything from the beginning of the fight to the end. Holm didn't do anything special in that fight, but clearly won it.

Ferguson is really good, easily a champion.

On July 16 2015 04:32 Minsk wrote: Ferguson is really good, easily a champion.

i'm pissed at myself for not betting him. THomson odds got too good

Ferguson beat Thomson's ass. I expect Josh to retire after this.

Well I guess thats why Furgeson was the favorite :D

So yah Tony Fergusson just did that.

On July 16 2015 04:22 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On July 16 2015 04:00 soberstone wrote: Fuck yah, Holm is a beast. Fuck that crowd. Boring fight cuz Reneau couldn't do shit. Reneau didn't do shit, it wasn't that she couldn't. Reneau didn't do anything from the beginning of the fight to the end. Holm didn't do anything special in that fight, but clearly won it.

Yah I just disagree so hard with this I don't even know where to start.

Wow, that was awesome! But dangerous. And bad for the brain!

Frank Mir! xD

LOL. Duffee is so bad.

Fear the Mir!

Now that I think about it, it makes sense that Mir won that. Mir always gets rocked by multiple heavy hitters in the heavyweight division, but it takes several shots to put him away. Duffee going for the quick KO played against him, as Mir could take more than Duffee could, and Mir had the better technical boxing.

Remember Mir vs. Big Nog? Classic example.

Came up $110 on the night. Killing it.

I think all the Holly Holm hate is hilarious on other forums, twitter, etc. I really don't think anyone in the division can beat her besides Rousey.

Her control of range, striking technique, and overall athleticism is so far above all the other 35'ers. She just hasn't been there killer like we'd like to see her be after having 6 KO wins before coming to the UFC. Show me a women 35er out there who has more than 1 KO in the UFC. Oh yah, Rousey has two, and one of them was a bullshit stoppage against McMann.

I'll just keep making money on Holm until she faces Rousey, and people can keep hating on her style.

As far as Ferguson goes, kid is just a fucking stud. He really beat anyone on any given night.

Entertaining but skill wise the fight was garbage, Dufee showed the sloppiest striking Ive seen in a long time in a UFC fight... arms completely streched at his sides... wtf was he doing?

Frank Mir: $200,000 (no win bonus) + $25,000 Reebok
Todd Duffee: $12,000 + $2,500 Reebok

Tony Ferguson: $60,000 (includes $30,000 win bonus) + $5,000 Reebok
Josh Thomson: $85,000 + $5,000 Reebok

Holly Holm: $50,000 (includes $25,000 win bonus) + $2,500 Reebok
Marion Reneau: $12,000 + $2,500 Reebok

Manny Gamburyan: $60,000 (includes $30,000 win bonus) + $15,000 Reebok
Scott Jorgensen: $33,000 + $20,000 Reebok

Kevin Lee: $36,000 (includes $18,000 win bonus) + $2,500 Reebok
James Moontasri: $10,000 + $2,500 Reebok

Alan Jouban: $30,000 (includes $15,000 win bonus) + $2,500 Reebok
Matt Dwyer: $10,000 + $2,500 Reebok

Sam Sicilia: $36,000 (includes $18,000 win bonus) + $5,000 Reebok
Yaotzin Meza: $16,000 + $5,000 Reebok

Jessica Andrade: $32,000 (includes $16,000 win bonus) + $5,000 Reebok
Sarah Moras: $10,000 + $2,500 Reebok

Rani Yahya: $52,000 (includes $27,000 win bonus) + $15,000 Reebok
Masanori Kanehara: $14,000 + $2,500 Reebok

Sean Strickland: $34,000 (includes $17,000 win bonus) + $2,500 Reebok
Igor Araujo: $15,000 + $2,500 Reebok

Kevin Casey: $20,000 (includes $10,000 win bonus) + $2,500 Reebok
Ildemar Alcantara: $20,000 + $5,000 Reebok

Lyman Good: $20,000 (includes $10,000 win bonus) + $2,500 Reebok
Andrew Craig: $17,000 + $5,000 Reebok