UFC FN 67: Condit vs. Alves

Date: Saturday, May 30th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:59 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 3:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)




Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Carlos Condit (29-8) vs. Thiago Alves (21-9) (Welterweight)
Nik Lentz (25-6-2) vs. Charles Oliveira (19-4) (Featherweight)
KJ Noons (13-7) vs. Alex Oliveira (10-2-1) (Welterweight)
Francimar Barroso (16-4) vs. Ryan Jimmo (19-4) (Light Heavyweight)
Norman Parke (20-3-1) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (16-4) (Lightweight)
Wendell Oliveira (24-8) vs. Darren Till (12-0) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Rony Jason (14-5) vs. Damon Jackson (9-1) (Featherweight)
Jussier Formiga (17-3) vs. Wilson Reis (19-5) (Flyweight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (14-4) vs. Nicolas Dalby (13-0) (Welterweight)
Lucas Martins (15-2) vs. Mirsad Bektic (9-0) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Juliana Lima (7-2) vs. Ericka Almeida (7-0) (Women's Strawweight)
Luiz Dutra (11-3-1) vs. Tom Breese (7-0) (Welterweight)

Other

- A welterweight bout between TJ Waldburger and Wendell Oliveira was originally booked for UFC Fight Night 61. However, the bout was cancelled on the day of the weigh-ins, after Waldburger passed out while cutting weight. The pairing had been rescheduled for this event, but it was scrapped yet again after Waldburger pulled out of the bout on May 19 due to undisclosed reasons. He was replaced by promotional newcomer Darren Till.
- Gilbert Burns was expected to face Norman Parke at this event. However, Burns was forced to withdraw from the event due to injury and was replaced by Francisco Trinaldo.
- Renato Moicano was expected to face Mirsad Bektic at the event. However, Moicano pulled out of the fight in late April due to a knee injury and was replaced by Lucas Martins.
- Jessica Penne was expected to face Juliana Lima at the event. However on May 1, Penne was removed from the card and placed into a UFC Women's Strawweight Championship fight against champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk on June 20, 2015 at UFC Fight Night 69. She was replaced by promotional newcomer Ericka Almeida.
- Yan Cabral was expected to face KJ Noons at the event. However on May 19, Cabral pulled out of the fight due to dengue fever. He was replaced by Alex Oliveira.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Condit > Alves
• Oliveira > Lentz
• Oliveira > Noons
• Jimmo > Barroso
• Parke > Trinaldo
• Oliveira vs. Till (dunno)
• Jason > Jackson
• Reis > Formiga
• Santos vs. Dalby (dunno)
• Bektic > Martins
• Lima > Almeida
• Dutra > Breese

^
You picked a large number of foreigners. I'd just look at green-yellow flags and pick the winner. That or you already know that the foreigner is good enough to KO the BR hhueuhueh

To beat a brazilian in Brazil u almost have to KO him xD

I want to bet Alves for a few reasons:

Brazil: He's likely to be on peds, and could easily be gifted a decision. And the crowd will boost him.
I expect +240 odds which is good
Condit has ring rust and could still suffer from injury possibly

BUT, i have read on some sites and most pros stronlgy disagree with me, they think Condit is free money, so i'm not sure.... i might just pass that fight

I know this is TLDR material guys, but w/e, I post a lot in these threads and if anyone values my opinion, great, if not, some good counter-points I would love to hear on the 4 fights I commented on

187 recap since I didn't post as I was watching the fights out in Norcal live with the homie traxamillion, I thought the card was fucking excellent entertainment, the best so far this year:

On the betting side however, I basically took a shot at hitting it big and being able to start betting bigger by going for massive parlays that I thought had value but would still obviously bust most of the time and throwing everything id racked up this year on bookmaker and got fucked by Uriah Hall (and to a lesser extent Travis Browne, woulda still won a ton if Hall held) - which in retrospect was a terrible bet since apparently his consistent ability to freeze-up overrides any massive edge he may have, so back to them lower variance bets I guess for now and see if I can run good for the next 6 weeks and take another shot at UFC 189 - Mcgregor v Aldo (staying at MGM :DDDDDDD)

The Browne Arlovski fight just turned into an awesome to watch bar fight once Arlovski rocked Browne and put him in instinct mode, it was apparent after about 15 seconds when Arlovski was just barely missing that Browne's head movement was worse than I realized and/or Arlovski's hands are quicker, likely both. The backfists Arlovski was landing off his missed cross in that fight were sick too, really crafty, much more effective for heavyweights with 4-oz gloves than coming back across with the wide hook because it gets to its target much quicker, doesn't leave you as exposed, and as we saw, can rock the other guy all the same. That's the sort of technique that wouldn't be advantageous at all at welterweight and below because all you are doing is wasting a movement with no potential of significant damage and still carries some risk, whereas in those weightclasses the ideal thing to do is obviously to simply re-balance and circle off/pivot off (depending on the angle) simultaneously (GSP only through straight punches like the jab or cross, but was always re-balancing and out of there before his opponent could react), but is perfect at heavyweight.

Anyway, initial thoughts - only really on 4 fights that I feel like I have a read on


Condit > Alves:
- Condit should be more likely to rack up points with superior volume, pace, accuracy, etc. so he should be the round-winner, especially 3,4, 5
- As a Condit fan, I do worry a little bit that he relies on his sick chin too much and one day that might catch up with him, but I don't think it's this fight
- Both are great strikers but Alves didn't look great against Mein before finding what I would deem a relatively fluky finish out of nowhere after getting picked apart on the feet in a surprisingly not competitive first round (Alves landed a kick to the body that was hard but didn't look like it had fight ending power, but it landed in the perfect spot in Mein's gut, was sort of a weird finish IMO).
- Both fighters are violent and should bring it so I'd be a little surprised if this didn't get finished at some point, prolly Condit via after hurting Alves in later rounds is most likely outcome
- Should be a great technical fight with flashes of awesome violence and toughness displayed by both dudes
- Will probably bet on Condit in some capacity, not sure how yet

Oliveira > Lentz:
- Oliveira is the more diverse and dangerous fighter, far better kickboxer at range, equal in the clinch, better cardio, and ofcourse far better subs from any position
- Not super confident about the pick though, they both cut too much weight so while I think Oliveira is the better all around fighter, if he has an especially bad cut and Lentz doesn't, that's a recipe for a Lentz grind-it-out type decision
- I expect them to both look bad at weigh-ins so one of them looks surprisingly spry and the other looks shitty, I'll want betting site fired up to beat the justifiable and inevitable line movement should suck a situation occur
- Odds seem correct as of now with 240 being the mean with Du-Bronx being the favorite, if there are no further developments I prolly won't touch the fight

Reis > Formiga:
- This fight should be way higher up on the card than it is in terms of actual importance relative to division - both guys would be 1 win away from a title shot, simply because DJ will have cleaned the division after Dodson II
- No one is getting KO'd - neither guy has a single knockout in 44 combined fights.
- Formiga is more technical on his feet but not as active or powerful
- Formiga will need to either win on the feet (possible but I don't favor him there) or be able to initiate a scramble off a Reis takedown and take the back (his biggest strength) in order to win rounds or find the submission
- I think Reis matches up really well against a guy who's strongest asset is being a wet-blanket style scrambler because he's a decorated grappler himself and is bigger, stronger, and more athletic
- If the fight is on the ground, it should be because should be able to get Formiga down and play top position conservatively and avoid hairy spots and win a really low-risk, intelligent, boring decision that resembles the Jiu-Jitsu points match
- Since I'm picking Reis, I obviously see value on him as the dog - will probably bet him by decision at +190

Bektic > Martins:
- Bektic's a blue chip prospect out of a top tier camps (ATT) already really well-rounded, technical at all the major disciplines
- Has already shown heart in his fight with Chas Skelly where he got blatantly illegally kneed in the face on the ground and clearly concussed (somehow Skelly wasn't DQ'ed and just lost a point, it was absurd, and Bektic still won) and the intangibles that someone like Uriah Hall is the polar opposite of, and is a blue-chip undefeated prospect to look out for because he's so good so young (24) and is very athletic.
- Patrick Wyman from Sherdog rated him the number 1 prospect to look out for in 2015, and Wyman has been hired by Rafael Cordero to gameplan for his top students - Fabricio Werdum and RDA.
- From what I've seen of Martins, his only above average trait is his power. Other than that, decent striking offense, poor striking defense, average wrestling, average Jitsu.
- Looks like a clear victory for Bektic, even if it goes to decision, it should be dominant enough performance to avoid the feared Brazillian judging
- I like Bektic ITD at +170 and will probably parlay him with Condit seperately

On May 28 2015 00:02 soberstone wrote: Condit > Alves: - Condit should be more likely to rack up points with superior volume, pace, accuracy, etc. so he should be the round-winner, especially 3,4, 5 - As a Condit fan, I do worry a little bit that he relies on his sick chin too much and one day that might catch up with him, but I don't think it's this fight - Both are great strikers but Alves didn't look great against Mein before finding what I would deem a relatively fluky finish out of nowhere after getting picked apart on the feet in a surprisingly not competitive first round (Alves landed a kick to the body that was hard but didn't look like it had fight ending power, but it landed in the perfect spot in Mein's gut, was sort of a weird finish IMO). - Both fighters are violent and should bring it so I'd be a little surprised if this didn't get finished at some point, prolly Condit via after hurting Alves in later rounds is most likely outcome - Should be a great technical fight with flashes of awesome violence and toughness displayed by both dudes - Will probably bet on Condit in some capacity, not sure how yet

To me, this is dog or pass.
Alves could easily be on peds, he can very easily steal a decision here in brazil, he will have crowd's energy, condit could in theory still have injury issues, and condit has poor odds, lots of risks
That being said, Condit is probably the better fighter

On May 28 2015 00:02 soberstone wrote: I didn't post as I was watching the fights out in Norcal live with the homie traxamillion.

Where at? I'm in Sunnyvale.

On May 28 2015 01:59 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On May 28 2015 00:02 soberstone wrote: I didn't post as I was watching the fights out in Norcal live with the homie traxamillion. Where at? I'm in Sunnyvale.

The Graton casino.

Ever been? Pretty great for poker and fight combination - they show all the fights (they even said they showed the Horiguchi MM card, rofl), no cover and plenty of seating, and as for poker - super profitable 1/3 and 2/5 tables going with no pre-flop drop

On May 28 2015 00:20 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On May 28 2015 00:02 soberstone wrote: Condit > Alves: - Condit should be more likely to rack up points with superior volume, pace, accuracy, etc. so he should be the round-winner, especially 3,4, 5 - As a Condit fan, I do worry a little bit that he relies on his sick chin too much and one day that might catch up with him, but I don't think it's this fight - Both are great strikers but Alves didn't look great against Mein before finding what I would deem a relatively fluky finish out of nowhere after getting picked apart on the feet in a surprisingly not competitive first round (Alves landed a kick to the body that was hard but didn't look like it had fight ending power, but it landed in the perfect spot in Mein's gut, was sort of a weird finish IMO). - Both fighters are violent and should bring it so I'd be a little surprised if this didn't get finished at some point, prolly Condit via after hurting Alves in later rounds is most likely outcome - Should be a great technical fight with flashes of awesome violence and toughness displayed by both dudes - Will probably bet on Condit in some capacity, not sure how yet To me, this is dog or pass. Alves could easily be on peds, he can very easily steal a decision here in brazil, he will have crowd's energy, condit could in theory still have injury issues, and condit has poor odds, lots of risks That being said, Condit is probably the better fighter

Alves wouldn't want to try and used PEDs nowadays. He's been out for so long, and he knows that the UFC does their own testing in Brazil. Vitor is a different story.

On May 28 2015 02:10 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On May 28 2015 01:59 PuertoRican wrote:   On May 28 2015 00:02 soberstone wrote: I didn't post as I was watching the fights out in Norcal live with the homie traxamillion. Where at? I'm in Sunnyvale. The Graton casino. Ever been? Pretty great for poker and fight combination - they show all the fights, no cover and plenty of seating, and as for poker - super profitable 1/3 and 2/5 tables going with no pre-flop drop

I've never heard of the Graton Casino. Looking at Google, it's not near where I live.

Regarding poker, I'm not really interested in it these days. Kinda funny considering I post on a poker related website.

Not really seeing any lines I like T_T

Either guys with long layoffs (Lentz 1 year StarCraft represent, Condit has fought once in two years, Alves has fought twice in three years) or fighters I haven't seen much of. I'm excited for the main event two of my favorite fighters will suck to see one of them lose. Also always looking forward to seeing Lentz on a card, but besides those two fights not too much here for me.

On May 28 2015 10:44 Nazgul wrote: Not really seeing any lines I like T_T Either guys with long layoffs (Lentz 1 year StarCraft represent, Condit has fought once in two years, Alves has fought twice in three years) or fighters I haven't seen much of. I'm excited for the main event two of my favorite fighters will suck to see one of them lose. Also always looking forward to seeing Lentz on a card, but besides those two fights not too much here for me.

Was Lentz a sick SC player?

Alves hasn't looked good lately. Was getting mauled by Mein and not looking great against Seth either. But if he grapples he can maybe take it. I mean Condit has the worst TDD of any top 10 fighter, and Alves takedowns and grappling are both pretty good.

There's a good 15 seconds between the part where Jones leaves the vehicle and then comes back for the money. The person who made this should've had 5 seconds between the two shots at most. Still funny though.

On May 28 2015 23:14 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On May 28 2015 10:44 Nazgul wrote: Not really seeing any lines I like T_T Either guys with long layoffs (Lentz 1 year StarCraft represent, Condit has fought once in two years, Alves has fought twice in three years) or fighters I haven't seen much of. I'm excited for the main event two of my favorite fighters will suck to see one of them lose. Also always looking forward to seeing Lentz on a card, but besides those two fights not too much here for me. Was Lentz a sick SC player?

Lentz is a casual player probably got up to master or something, but definitely a big esports fan. He visited a bunch of MLGs and hung out with people there. Razer sponsored him for a while as well http://www.razerzone.com/team/lifestyle/nik-lentz/

On May 28 2015 01:59 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On May 28 2015 00:02 soberstone wrote: I didn't post as I was watching the fights out in Norcal live with the homie traxamillion. Where at? I'm in Sunnyvale.

do you train at aka?

On May 29 2015 10:47 handbanana21 wrote: Show nested quote + On May 28 2015 01:59 PuertoRican wrote:   On May 28 2015 00:02 soberstone wrote: I didn't post as I was watching the fights out in Norcal live with the homie traxamillion. Where at? I'm in Sunnyvale. do you train at aka?

No.

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The UFC is using a big cage for this event.

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What do you guys think about Fransisco Trinaldo at 3.2ML?

So far I like the Alex Olivera ML and O2.5 on Bektik/Martins,
Alves ITD @ 5.18, Condit/Alves Wont Start Round 5 @ 1.718.
Bektik Wins by Decision @ 2.2

Dude Nik Lentz looked like death.

That is the first time I've felt physically uncomfortable watching a guy trudge out. I think there's gonna be a death from guys doing what he's doing in the UFC (it's already happened on the amateur a few times). It's easily the most dangerous part of the sport doing what Lentz just did.

Def gonna bit Charles via submission at +155 if it becomes available on bookmaker. He's gonna sub him for sho.

There were technical difficulties during the weigh-in, and the Dalby/Santos portion was cut out. Dalby uploaded his own weigh-in and uploaded it to his YouTube channel.

Michael Bispings eye is all fucked up .

Not betting anything on this card. I was thinking about if there is some value on Nick Lentz, but after that weigh in, and the way he looked there is no way I am betting him . Be careful with Charles Oliveira guys, The guy is pretty inconsistent. Betting him at this odds is crazy.

Hope for Condit to put on a show.

Still adding more bets and waiting for the lines to adjust before adding more.

One bet I do like that I haven't seen anyone talk about at any of the websites I go to is Francisco Trinaldo by decision +349. Almost everyone is saying it will go o2.5 rounds for sure, and the line reflects that. Neither guy has the power to finish the other via strikes, and I don't think either guy will submit the other guy. Parke has the cardio advantage, but Trinaldo keeps a constant pace where he always stays close to his opponent for a potential clinch and/or take down. After Parke's last fight, he said the reason why he lost the split-decision against Gleison Tibau is because he was sick. Trinaldo is a weaker version of Tibau, but the fight is in Brazil, and since I already expect this fight to go the distance where Trinaldo wins at least 1 round clearly, I think there's value on the Brazilian here.

I think Trinaldo will win round 1, and if I feel like it, I can always hedge out of my bet. At the moment, I have $15 to win $52.

great cm interview, thanks for posting. i think he has a very interesting personality

Fight Pass prelims: http://www.fixalen.tv/20150530/vv-1082462--5568ef93acd728.33043157.html

My bets pre-live betting:

+ Show Spoiler +

Great start. I lost my small bet on Dutra, but Breese winning did a lot more for me in the long run.

Only bets so far:

[Ticket #: 213999073] PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
05/30/2015 @ 09:00 PM MU [24402] CARLOS CONDIT -255
(THIAGO ALVES vrs CARLOS CONDIT)
05/30/2015 @ 08:35 PM MU [24406] CHARLES OLIVEIRA -265
(NIK LENTZ vrs CHARLES OLIVEIRA)
05/30/2015 @ 05:05 PM MU [24438] MIRSAD BEKTIC -370
(LUCAS MARTINS vrs MIRSAD BEKTIC)

Bet: 40.00 to win 57.43

Line movement has gone in my favor in all 3 fights...

Not sure how the props are still not available on bookmaker.... I really need to put money on 5 dimes....

Waiting to take Chuck O via sub and Wilson Reis via decision if the odds are good...

On May 30 2015 23:19 soberstone wrote: Only bets so far: [Ticket #: 213999073] PARLAY (3 TEAMS) 05/30/2015 @ 09:00 PM MU [24402] CARLOS CONDIT -255 (THIAGO ALVES vrs CARLOS CONDIT) 05/30/2015 @ 08:35 PM MU [24406] CHARLES OLIVEIRA -265 (NIK LENTZ vrs CHARLES OLIVEIRA) 05/30/2015 @ 05:05 PM MU [24438] MIRSAD BEKTIC -370 (LUCAS MARTINS vrs MIRSAD BEKTIC) Bet: 40.00 to win 57.43 Line movement has gone in my favor in all 3 fights... Not sure how the props are still not available on bookmaker.... I really need to put money on 5 dimes.... Waiting to take Chuck O via sub and Wilson Reis via decision if the odds are good...

Props are up for most of the fights on Bookmaker, they only skipped the Bektic/Martins fight for props. Regarding the two Fight Pass fights, they haven't been putting up props for Fight Pass fights for awhile, so I wasn't expecting any to be released for this card.

On May 30 2015 23:24 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On May 30 2015 23:19 soberstone wrote: Only bets so far: [Ticket #: 213999073] PARLAY (3 TEAMS) 05/30/2015 @ 09:00 PM MU [24402] CARLOS CONDIT -255 (THIAGO ALVES vrs CARLOS CONDIT) 05/30/2015 @ 08:35 PM MU [24406] CHARLES OLIVEIRA -265 (NIK LENTZ vrs CHARLES OLIVEIRA) 05/30/2015 @ 05:05 PM MU [24438] MIRSAD BEKTIC -370 (LUCAS MARTINS vrs MIRSAD BEKTIC) Bet: 40.00 to win 57.43 Line movement has gone in my favor in all 3 fights... Not sure how the props are still not available on bookmaker.... I really need to put money on 5 dimes.... Waiting to take Chuck O via sub and Wilson Reis via decision if the odds are good... Props are up for most of the fights on Bookmaker, they only skipped the Bektic/Martins fight for props. Regarding the two Fight Pass fights, they haven't been putting up props for Fight Pass fights for awhile, so I wasn't expecting any to be released for this card.

Your right... they finally just came out. Reis by decision is a ripoff, not betting it, but I did take Chuck O via sub at +144 for $30

On May 30 2015 23:28 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On May 30 2015 23:24 PuertoRican wrote:   On May 30 2015 23:19 soberstone wrote: Only bets so far: [Ticket #: 213999073] PARLAY (3 TEAMS) 05/30/2015 @ 09:00 PM MU [24402] CARLOS CONDIT -255 (THIAGO ALVES vrs CARLOS CONDIT) 05/30/2015 @ 08:35 PM MU [24406] CHARLES OLIVEIRA -265 (NIK LENTZ vrs CHARLES OLIVEIRA) 05/30/2015 @ 05:05 PM MU [24438] MIRSAD BEKTIC -370 (LUCAS MARTINS vrs MIRSAD BEKTIC) Bet: 40.00 to win 57.43 Line movement has gone in my favor in all 3 fights... Not sure how the props are still not available on bookmaker.... I really need to put money on 5 dimes.... Waiting to take Chuck O via sub and Wilson Reis via decision if the odds are good... Props are up for most of the fights on Bookmaker, they only skipped the Bektic/Martins fight for props. Regarding the two Fight Pass fights, they haven't been putting up props for Fight Pass fights for awhile, so I wasn't expecting any to be released for this card. Your right... they finally just came out. Reis by decision is a ripoff, not betting it, but I did take Chuck O via sub at +144 for $30

The props on Bookmaker have been out since last night. I know this cuz I put my bets in on a few of them.

Wow... Lima is lay and praying so fucking hard. What a lame fight. Fuck Lima.

On May 30 2015 23:35 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On May 30 2015 23:28 soberstone wrote:   On May 30 2015 23:24 PuertoRican wrote:   On May 30 2015 23:19 soberstone wrote: Only bets so far: [Ticket #: 213999073] PARLAY (3 TEAMS) 05/30/2015 @ 09:00 PM MU [24402] CARLOS CONDIT -255 (THIAGO ALVES vrs CARLOS CONDIT) 05/30/2015 @ 08:35 PM MU [24406] CHARLES OLIVEIRA -265 (NIK LENTZ vrs CHARLES OLIVEIRA) 05/30/2015 @ 05:05 PM MU [24438] MIRSAD BEKTIC -370 (LUCAS MARTINS vrs MIRSAD BEKTIC) Bet: 40.00 to win 57.43 Line movement has gone in my favor in all 3 fights... Not sure how the props are still not available on bookmaker.... I really need to put money on 5 dimes.... Waiting to take Chuck O via sub and Wilson Reis via decision if the odds are good... Props are up for most of the fights on Bookmaker, they only skipped the Bektic/Martins fight for props. Regarding the two Fight Pass fights, they haven't been putting up props for Fight Pass fights for awhile, so I wasn't expecting any to be released for this card. Your right... they finally just came out. Reis by decision is a ripoff, not betting it, but I did take Chuck O via sub at +144 for $30 The props on Bookmaker have been out since last night. I know this cuz I put my bets in on a few of them.

Well if they have, bestfightodds hasn't been showing them, because I've been clicking refresh since this AM. Infact, I just checked and bestfightodds still pretends they aren't out, so I guess I'll stop relying on them, gg.

30-25!!!!! WTF!!!!!! Get ready for some AWFUL judging tonight.

On May 30 2015 23:49 soberstone wrote: 30-25!!!!! WTF!!!!!! Get ready for some AWFUL judging tonight.

Awful enough for Franscisco Trinaldo to win?

On May 30 2015 23:48 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On May 30 2015 23:35 PuertoRican wrote:   On May 30 2015 23:28 soberstone wrote:   On May 30 2015 23:24 PuertoRican wrote:   On May 30 2015 23:19 soberstone wrote: Only bets so far: [Ticket #: 213999073] PARLAY (3 TEAMS) 05/30/2015 @ 09:00 PM MU [24402] CARLOS CONDIT -255 (THIAGO ALVES vrs CARLOS CONDIT) 05/30/2015 @ 08:35 PM MU [24406] CHARLES OLIVEIRA -265 (NIK LENTZ vrs CHARLES OLIVEIRA) 05/30/2015 @ 05:05 PM MU [24438] MIRSAD BEKTIC -370 (LUCAS MARTINS vrs MIRSAD BEKTIC) Bet: 40.00 to win 57.43 Line movement has gone in my favor in all 3 fights... Not sure how the props are still not available on bookmaker.... I really need to put money on 5 dimes.... Waiting to take Chuck O via sub and Wilson Reis via decision if the odds are good... Props are up for most of the fights on Bookmaker, they only skipped the Bektic/Martins fight for props. Regarding the two Fight Pass fights, they haven't been putting up props for Fight Pass fights for awhile, so I wasn't expecting any to be released for this card. Your right... they finally just came out. Reis by decision is a ripoff, not betting it, but I did take Chuck O via sub at +144 for $30 The props on Bookmaker have been out since last night. I know this cuz I put my bets in on a few of them. Well if they have, bestfightodds hasn't been showing them, because I've been clicking refresh since this AM. Infact, I just checked and bestfightodds still pretends they aren't out, so I guess I'll stop relying on them, gg.

Correct.

The Bookmaker props are missing from BFO a lot. The prop lines were actually released 1 hour or so before the weigh-ins yesterday. I was surprised cuz they're usually released after the weigh-ins on Bookmaker.

On May 30 2015 23:51 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On May 30 2015 23:48 soberstone wrote:   On May 30 2015 23:35 PuertoRican wrote:   On May 30 2015 23:28 soberstone wrote:   On May 30 2015 23:24 PuertoRican wrote:   On May 30 2015 23:19 soberstone wrote: Only bets so far: [Ticket #: 213999073] PARLAY (3 TEAMS) 05/30/2015 @ 09:00 PM MU [24402] CARLOS CONDIT -255 (THIAGO ALVES vrs CARLOS CONDIT) 05/30/2015 @ 08:35 PM MU [24406] CHARLES OLIVEIRA -265 (NIK LENTZ vrs CHARLES OLIVEIRA) 05/30/2015 @ 05:05 PM MU [24438] MIRSAD BEKTIC -370 (LUCAS MARTINS vrs MIRSAD BEKTIC) Bet: 40.00 to win 57.43 Line movement has gone in my favor in all 3 fights... Not sure how the props are still not available on bookmaker.... I really need to put money on 5 dimes.... Waiting to take Chuck O via sub and Wilson Reis via decision if the odds are good... Props are up for most of the fights on Bookmaker, they only skipped the Bektic/Martins fight for props. Regarding the two Fight Pass fights, they haven't been putting up props for Fight Pass fights for awhile, so I wasn't expecting any to be released for this card. Your right... they finally just came out. Reis by decision is a ripoff, not betting it, but I did take Chuck O via sub at +144 for $30 The props on Bookmaker have been out since last night. I know this cuz I put my bets in on a few of them. Well if they have, bestfightodds hasn't been showing them, because I've been clicking refresh since this AM. Infact, I just checked and bestfightodds still pretends they aren't out, so I guess I'll stop relying on them, gg. Correct. The Bookmaker props are missing from BFO a lot. The prop lines were actually released 1 hour or so before the weigh-ins yesterday. I was surprised cuz they're usually released after the weigh-ins on Bookmaker.

Yah good to know thanks, in other news can we talk about that 30-25 card?

On May 30 2015 23:50 Minsk wrote: Show nested quote + On May 30 2015 23:49 soberstone wrote: 30-25!!!!! WTF!!!!!! Get ready for some AWFUL judging tonight. Awful enough for Franscisco Trinaldo to win?

Well Almeida is also Brazilian so I really don't know what to make of it

Ericka Almeida took the fight on short notice (18 days ago), and she's just a pure BJJ fighter. Lima has BJJ skills too, and since she always holds her opponents against the cage to win fights, she decided it would be easiest to take her rookie opponent down and just LnP. You could tell she wasn't even trying to win the 3rd round cuz she already won the first two.

That being said, I'm glad Lima won, cuz she'll get at least 2 more chances in the UFC, and I'll bet against her again when she doesn't face a rookie fighter.

Round 1: Bektic (Bektic looked good, but you can tell his head movement hasn't improved much, as he got tagged with the few shots Martins was able to throw while on the feet. Bektic showed improved GnP.)

ROFL. Bectik is a beast....like I said.

Nobody gonna wanna fight him. I gauruntee you behind the scenes Sean Shelby is gonna have trouble getting people to accept fights with an unranked guy like that who is easily already a top-10 featherweight in reality.

I agree his head movement is stiff and striking defense is his biggest hole, but I doubt very many guys will take advantage of it until he faces the upper-echelon.

Added Condit v Alves u 3.5 @ -110

Bets now:

Bectik + Oliveria + Condit - $40 - +145
Oliveria via sub - $30 - +144
Condit v Alves u 3.5 - $22 -110

Lame cuz I gotta leave for a family dinner in a few minutes so I'll have to record the card and watch later, so no - when my bets lose I'm not being bitter and silent, just seeing it later than you guys

On May 31 2015 00:27 soberstone wrote: Added Condit v Alves u 3.5 @ -110 Bets now: Bectik + Oliveria + Condit - $40 - +145 Oliveria via sub - $30 - +144 Condit v Alves u 3.5 - $22 -110 Lame cuz I gotta leave for a family dinner in a few minutes so I'll have to record the card and watch later, so no - when my bets lose I'm not being bitter and silent, just seeing it later than you guys

Later masturbater.

I'll hold down the fort and win us some money.

20 on dalby

On May 31 2015 00:32 traxamillion wrote: 20 on dalby

He's gonna get robbed if this goes the distance. I can feel it.

Just live bet Zaleski at +300 between 2 and 3.

EDS +327 1u after round 2. Dalby didn't do enough to win round 2, imo.

On May 31 2015 00:46 PuertoRican wrote: EDS +327 1u after round 2. Dalby didn't do enough to win round 2, imo.

yup, made the same bet, pretty sure the Brazilian's gettin it

Shit no idea who won that. Prolly the Brazilian in Brazil?

On May 31 2015 00:51 traxamillion wrote: Shit no idea who won that. Prolly the Brazilian in Brazil?

Probably, I actually scored it for him too

Phew. What a sweat. Did not expect that

EDS landed double the significant strikes in rounds 2 and 3. Dalby didn't do much with the take down in round 3 before getting reversed and ending up on bottom.

Split decision is my guess.

Wow..... even Dalby looked surprised. Close fight, definitely value on our live bets Rican, grats Cam

Close fight either way.

Finally won a goddamn bet! Added an additional 1.2u to my original bet on Formiga, so +$27 from that win. Reis looked worse than I thought, so I'm happy about that.

Still a long way to go...

Yeah baby!

Rony Jason is back!

sick darren till speaks portuguese very well, didnt expect that

Yeah, I knew he lived and trained in Brazil, but didn't expect him to speak Portuguese that well. Sick dedication to him moving to Brazil, living in Brazil, training in Brazil, and learning Portuguese.

Can't wait till he gets to face some better opponents.

Darren Till is the Canelo Alvarez of MMA. xD

Did parke win that I have a bet on him

This is embarrasing. Seriously. They should just stop hosting these events in Brazil.

Lost a split decision despite the end. Can't complain

But yea parke won the fight

Damn trax you should know better. Don't ever bet against Brazilians in Br unless you are 100% sure your pick will KO the Brazil. This is absolutely ridiculous. I really like Trinaldo but it was a very clear 29-28. Textbook 29-28 actually.

On May 30 2015 20:03 PuertoRican wrote: Still adding more bets and waiting for the lines to adjust before adding more. One bet I do like that I haven't seen anyone talk about at any of the websites I go to is Francisco Trinaldo by decision +349. Almost everyone is saying it will go o2.5 rounds for sure, and the line reflects that. Neither guy has the power to finish the other via strikes, and I don't think either guy will submit the other guy. Parke has the cardio advantage, but Trinaldo keeps a constant pace where he always stays close to his opponent for a potential clinch and/or take down. After Parke's last fight, he said the reason why he lost the split-decision against Gleison Tibau is because he was sick. Trinaldo is a weaker version of Tibau, but the fight is in Brazil, and since I already expect this fight to go the distance where Trinaldo wins at least 1 round clearly, I think there's value on the Brazilian here. I think Trinaldo will win round 1, and if I feel like it, I can always hedge out of my bet. At the moment, I have $15 to win $52.

Live bet:

Trinaldo $5 for $18.55
Trinaldo $30 for $26.09
Trinaldo $52.50 for $30

^

"and since I already expect this fight to go the distance where Trinaldo wins at least 1 round clearly, I think there's value on the Brazilian here." hahaha

I gave Trinaldo rounds 1 and 2, while most people who bet on Parke gave Parke rounds 1 and 3. Round 1 was close because Parke didn't do much with his take downs, while Trinaldo landed 19 significant strikes versus Parke's 6. If Parke was active on top, I would've given him the 1st round.

Ug am I about to lose my money on a goddam nut strike this is crazy

Fuk yea bro take ur minute. Then knock this foo block off

Yea raidern I am quickly learning my lesson lol

Barroso was gassed toward the end of round 1, but Jimmo's inactivity is allowing Barroso to not gas anymore, not to mention the 5-minute break via nut-shot helped the Brazilian.

Nice bets puertorican

On May 31 2015 03:27 traxamillion wrote: Nice bets puertorican

Thanks.

I have $30 on Barroso -115 as round 3 started.

What a dumb fight can't believe I had money on that.

lmao... Bookmaker quickly put up -3.5/+3.5 to live bet and kept it up right before Buffer said the scores. I knew that was a trap with how quickly they tallied the scores. Easy $30 at -115. (trap on Jimmo that is, as the line was -146 for Jimmo +3.5)

Darren till just said in an interview that he actually met some girl in Br and got her pregnant and now he has a family in brazil hah hilarious how he picks his words like a Brazilian in spite of having a strong accent.

On May 31 2015 03:37 Raidern wrote: Darren till just said in an interview that he actually met some girl in Br and got her pregnant and now he has a family in brazil hah hilarious how he picks his words like a Brazilian in spite of having a strong accent.

That's probably her tattooed on his arm. I bet she looks good as fuck irl.

Well damn. I didn't expect Cowboy to go for a take down. Oh well.

Just got back in time for the fights that matter, Lentz bout to get subbed, prolly late round 2.

Ok sorry early 3rd

this was a very entertaining fight

Oliveira proves that he's always dangerous. Props to Lentz for making a comeback.

thats nik lentz though, when's the last time he won a 3rd round? he can't, he cuts too much weight

On May 31 2015 04:23 soberstone wrote: thats nik lentz though, when's the last time he won a 3rd round? he can't, he cuts too much weight

Lentz is 4-2 in his last 6 fights; all 6 were at featherweight, and the losses were to guys he was supposed to lose to in Chad Mendes & Charles Oliveira.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nik_Lentz#Mixed_martial_arts_record

Win or lose, pretty obvious Alves is coming off the juice

On May 31 2015 04:33 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On May 31 2015 04:23 soberstone wrote: thats nik lentz though, when's the last time he won a 3rd round? he can't, he cuts too much weight Lentz is 4-2 in his last 6 fights; all 6 were at featherweight, and the losses were to guys he was supposed to lose to in Chad Mendes & Charles Oliveira. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nik_Lentz#Mixed_martial_arts_record

Yep, and he lost the third round to Manny Gamburyan and Hacran Dias, hence my point.

Condit with the beat down in round 2. Now to round 3...

Edit: Never mind, stopped by doctor.

Damn Alves has a lot of heart. Condit was looking great after he hit Alves with the elbow. Man look at Alves's face.

Alves's baldness is making him look like Ronaldo in 2002

Shoot it. Clean sweep. (besides the $10 live bet)

Bectik + Oliveria + Condit - $40 - +145 = +57.43
Oliveria via sub - $30 - +144 = +43.20
Condit v Alves u 3.5 - $22 -110 = +20.00

Night - + $120.63 - $10 live bet = $110.63

On May 31 2015 04:55 Raidern wrote: Alves's baldness is making him look like Ronaldo in 2002

Yah. He's weening off that special sauce. Look at his body compared to even his last fight. Nice try though, a lot of heart displayed, kinda surprised they stopped it.

So yah, if Matt Brown beats the Dirty Bird, can we all agree its Matt Brown vs Carlos Condit for the peoples main event of the century?

I won $67.18 on Bookmaker. I lost like $50-$100 of profit via live betting, so that sucks. I added another bet to Alves as round 2 started, then he got hit hard by Condit and I was like... Whatevs...

I won $93.55 on DraftKings.

I won $121.18 on DraftOps.

Not a bad night, but definitely some big mistakes by me. We have the Dan Henderson vs. Tim Boetsch card next week in New Orleans, Louisiana, followed by the Cain Velasquez vs. Fabricio Werdum card in Mexico.

Wow, nice job on the fantasy games. Apparently those are really profitable, I need to join in on that.

The only one I played was a free-roll. Placed 1st out of 150. No prize. GG.

FREE - UFC Fight Night 67: Condit vs. Alves
SELECTED OPPONENT

Factsandtruth1Atomweight
Factsandtruth
554
1 st
105.5
Rony Jason

129.5
Carlos Condit

107.5
Mirsad Bektic

114.5
Alex Oliveira

97
Charles Oliveira

Alves' nose-bone got pushed up into his forehead. You can see the bump between his eyebrows.

Thoughts on Jordan -120, Soto -180, Caceres -130, and Akhmedov -150?

I like Birchak over Soto. Rivera over Caceres. Wait for Jordan's line to get better; people will bet on his opponent due to his size and blackness.

I too like Rivera over Caceras, and actually pretty strongly about it.

Soto vs Birchak is closer than that line IMO.

If you like Jordan go for it, but I think the fight is a toss-up and would look more at props. Agree with Rican that general rule of thumb is that fish money will always flow towards the bigger and blacker fighter with more aesthetically pleasing KO's in a vacuum.

Also surprised Hendo is at +165... I think there is value there