In my opinion, the best approach to any kind of statistical question is a Gordian knot system.
You might take a sequence of propositions and request yes or no answers a la the Poker "box" system.
[ ] NAME: X (dies) - eventually you will find a "yes" answer to this question.
[ ] NAME: Y (dies) - eventually you will find a "yes" answer to this question.
[ ] NAME: Z (dies) - eventually you will find a "yes" answer to this question.
Most successful bureaucracies, namely the Mafia, use this system.
Usually the first question is simple, like "X clearly does not deserve to die by any avoidable means -- no rational entity would will the death of X."
If the reply is confusing, an answer like, "In my narrative, X was dead 1 year ago and was deserving of death" then the author's narrative is replaced by a narrative the Mafia deems suitable.
It's impractical to write personally-tailored narratives for each individual who replies with a wrong answer to the first question.
The wisest course of action, and the course favored by the Mafia, is to write personal narrative for those who answer the first question and subsequent questions correctly.
Correct answers are surprisingly easy to identify. To my knowledge it is impossible to answer each and every question perfectly.
By way of example, consider the first three questions the character of which is similar, "It is true of Names X, Y, and Z that each of X, Y, and Z does not deserve to die by any avoidable means -- no rational entity would will the death of X, Y, or Z."
Again, I emphasize that correct answers are surprisingly easy to identify.
Statistical techniques are applied with painstaking precision. These statistical techniques obtain accurate forecasts about the life expectancy of a given Name, e.g. X. Truth-preserving propositions are necessarily entailed in each forecast.
Acceptable answers to the first question and subsequent questions qualify one to be a member of the Mafia.
Members of the Mafia write personal narrative for those who answer the first question and subsequent questions correctly. Typically there is not only one winner.
Encompassing narratives are written with respect to results of longevity forecast.
Not everyone has a Name for whom he or she writes personal narrative. It is not uncommon for personal narrative to describe an entity who is not a member of the Mafia.
Dignity and well-being have seldom characterized a good narrative. |
