UFC 177: Dillashaw vs. Barao II - Page 3

Damn that azz. Betting that ladies fight goes to decision at -260. Will obviously be streaming, not buying.

So pissed about the Barao situation though... more terrible PR for the UFC, and I lose out on the bet I felt most confident in thus far this year. Line hasn't even come out on the Soto v Dillashaw. What would you guys set the line at? I've never seen Soto fight but know he's actually a very good, well-rounded, tough veteran/prospect.

Might check a gif or two of that card the day after, went from pretty bad to horribad.

Ariel Helwani @arielhelwani · 8m
Dana just said to the media that Barao will not get a title shot upon returning.

Ariel Helwani @arielhelwani · 8m
Also if Cejudo wants to fight in UFC again it has to be 135, because of his history.

Guilherme Cruz @guicruzzz · 36m
Barao felt dizzy, hit his head against the wall and passed out when leaving the tub in his hotel room, per Nova Uniao

----------

On August 29 2014 19:22 soberstone wrote: So pissed about the Barao situation though... more terrible PR for the UFC, and I lose out on the bet I felt most confident in thus far this year. Line hasn't even come out on the Soto v Dillashaw. What would you guys set the line at? I've never seen Soto fight but know he's actually a very good, well-rounded, tough veteran/prospect.

Joe Soto' physique looked like crap during the weigh-ins like always. Also, he looked a little out of it or something when he was talking to Rogan, probably cuz he had to cut an extra pound when he had originally planned to fight at 136.

Soto would need to be at least +1200 for me touch him. The odds are stacked up against Soto in every department; MMA skills, weight cutting, 1st fight in UFC, 1-day notice of fighting the champion instead of a regional fighter, speed, power, etc.

----------

Odds for the new main event are out on 5Dimes.

TJ Dillashaw -1500
Joe Soto +700

o1½ -190
u1½ +150

Interesting quote on MMA Oddsbreaker.com:

"MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas was at work immediately, breaking down the new title fight and coming up with a line. After reviewing the matchup he settled on a line of -2750 for Dillashaw with the comeback on +1250 on Soto, but the owner of 5Dimes Sportsbook Tony Williams vetoed those numbers. Instead TJ Dillashaw will open as a -1500 (bet $1,500 to win $100) favorite, with the return on Joe Soto at +700 (bet $100 to win $700) Williams was quoted as saying, “If they think the line is too low, they can come and get it.”

Wow what a mess. How far under 100k buys you guys think this event will sell? This is now a fight night level card.

On August 29 2014 19:55 f1shcake wrote: Wow what a mess. How far under 100k buys you guys think this event will sell? This is now a fight night level card.

The fight night card in 1 week is shitload better than this. Lol. But i got your point and agree.

As for the odds, i'll go ahead and not touch this fight.

remember when I said it looked like barao and aldo diet went wrong?
Pepperidge farm remembers

they have been stronger but slow as fuck

good for barao, now he can have another fight before fighting someone who dominated him

good for dana white, more drama and hype for their next fight

bad for TJ, fighting someone completely different, it can be more dangerous for him than fighting barao again.

lol more dangerous at -1500.. right

Still.. he prepared for a specific opponent and gets a last minute replacement

I don't particularly look forward to specific events/dates anyways with how watered down everything is, and I don't particularly care about this card being a disaster. I look forward to specific fights and although this was a fight I was looking forward to a lot I actually much prefer seeing it without the quick and questionable turnaround for Barao. If he had lost he would have been out of the title picture for a long time. I want to see this fight when they're both on top of their game. It's a huge fight if Barao looks good again against his next opponent.

Added a $140 bet on Correia at -140 vs Bazler. Although I don't know much about either I just feel that Bazler and other pioneers have fallen behind and this fight comes a little too late in her career. Kind of betting on tendencies in MMA moreso than the specific fighters.

Event Event Date Date of Bet Bet Bet Type Amount Odds
UFC 177 16 Aug 14 8 Aug 14 Castillo > Ferguson SU $15.00 190
UFC 177 24 Aug 14 8 Aug 14 Castillo Decision PROP $25.00 420
UFC 177 30 Aug 14 27 Aug 14 Nijem > Diego Ferrera SU $15.00 175
UFC 177 30 Aug 14 27 Aug 14 Corriera by Decision PROP $50.00 150
UFC 177 30 Aug 14 29 Aug 14 Corriera > Baszler SU $100.00 -140
UFC 177 30 Aug 14 29 Aug 14 Larkin > Brunson SU $25.00 115
UFC 177 30 Aug 14 29 Aug 14 Larkin + Corriera PL $25.00 280

Feeling pretty awful about that first bet but atleast it's a small one, still think the odds on a Castillo decision aren't bad in his hometown if he can somehow turn it into an ugly wrestling match. So pissed about the Dillashaw fight falling through. Was gonna throw way too much down by conventional BR standards and felt great about it. Good thing I still have McGregor bet placed from way back at when he was -180, but that parlayed with Dillashaw was such $$$.

My bets pre-live betting:

+ Show Spoiler +

Seems like we all are finding value in Correia.... Hope she doesn't fuck us all.

Well, Baszler' striking looked improved versus Sarah McMann, so I think she'll surprise some of us and make the fight close, especially since she has the ground advantage by a wide margin. I just like Bethe a little more than Baszler atm, since she's been active and hasn't had to go through what Baszler has went through over the past 2 years, as well as having the confidence and being undefeated (so she doesn't know how to lose yet).

----------

Added a few bucks to Castillo KO/TKO +1025, since I don't see him winning any other way.

The props on Bookmaker don't really offer anything juicy for this event, most lines seem about right.

"Bellator trolls the UFC with 'Free Fight' release of Joe Warren vs. Joe Soto video"

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2014/8/30/...e-warren-vs-joe-soto-ko-loss-mma-news

Well i had tickets for this fight, i was on hour 3 of my 10 hour trip to the sleep train arena when i checked facebook and saw the title fight got changed, so i decided to turn around and auction off my tickets, thankfully some crazy person decided to buy them from me..

well PR i copied ur pre-live betting calls.. good luck to us both!

On August 30 2014 18:33 milkman wrote: Well i had tickets for this fight, i was on hour 3 of my 10 hour trip to the sleep train arena when i checked facebook and saw the title fight got changed, so i decided to turn around and auction off my tickets, thankfully some crazy person decided to buy them from me..

Lucky man... I wouldn't even pay $10 to see this card live.

As for my bets, I only added 1 additional bet so far, which is $3 on Castillo KO/TKO at +1025. It's the only way he'll win, imo. Larkin is being underrated by the betting public and is at +130 right now, so I might add more, not sure yet. Either way, I can live bet all these fights, so no rush, I guess.

Easy win for Wade. I almost put a random bet on the other guy just to have some action, good thing I went to 7-11 and got a Slurpee while the fight was starting.

Anyway, 2 fights left with 1 hour and 40 minutes until the main card. ;o

----------

Just added another bet to Larkin at +145.

god dammit i got fucked again, just realized that the UFC is allowing ticket master to issue refunds ( They told me yesterday they couldnt do that ) .. so i auctioned my tickets off and lost more money.. FUCK THIS CARD