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tloapc   Pitcairn. Jun 23 2012 23:05. Posts 2591


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The probability of someone watching you is proportional to the stupidity of your action. 

NewbSaibot   United States. Jun 23 2012 23:36. Posts 4943

interest

bye now 

tloapc   Pitcairn. Jun 23 2012 23:54. Posts 2591

well said
interest, usury, riba

The probability of someone watching you is proportional to the stupidity of your action. 

TianYuan    Korea (South). Jun 24 2012 00:53. Posts 6817

Good illustration of why one of my life goals since I was like 17 has been to never have to take out a loan with interest, shit's scary ><

Hm.. Off-suite socks.. 

Highcard   Canada. Jun 24 2012 00:58. Posts 5428

that was always something I thought about when in school and say people begging for money. But it's not about present, it's about future earning potential. That bum has zero

I have learned from poker that being at the table is not a grind, the grind is living and poker is how I pass the time 

R_I   New Zealand. Jun 24 2012 01:57. Posts 682

Like Highcard said, there's good debt and bad debt, or +ev debt and -ev debt if you like

Student loans nowadays are probably -ev debt in the long run with the crappy job market. We're lucky in NZ that we have 0% interest on our student loans wee


spets1   Australia. Jun 24 2012 02:32. Posts 2179

its not really zero it account for inflation which adds up

hola 

K40Cheddar   United States. Jun 24 2012 02:35. Posts 2202

Interesting comic but not entirely accurate

GG 

Hjorturkall   Iceland. Jun 24 2012 04:32. Posts 483


  On June 24 2012 01:32 spets1 wrote:
its not really zero it account for inflation which adds up




yeeah - but in that case it's actually just "real" zero. meaning that the lender doesn't gain anything on the loan - but due to it keeping up with inflation he doesn't lose either, which he'd do otherwise

Mig hefur alltaf langað til að vitna í sjálfan mig - Ég sjálfur 

Achoo   Canada. Jun 24 2012 05:11. Posts 1454

Probably would be more accurate to display yearly incomes too nonetheless loans are massively ev- except a few ones. I avoid them like the plague, never had one except on a house that I sold.

Odds are exactly 50%: it either happens or not 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Jun 24 2012 13:41. Posts 9634

its +EV for you if you take a loan and Inflations raises as you return money with less real value than the amount you took


Achoo   Canada. Jun 24 2012 16:39. Posts 1454

Hard to beat inflation with loan rates going between 4.5 and 17%
Best way is to buy real estate and inject a lot of cash into your credit in the hope that your estate will go up in value in 5-10 years

Odds are exactly 50%: it either happens or not 

blackjacki2   United States. Jun 24 2012 20:58. Posts 2581


  On June 24 2012 12:41 Spitfiree wrote:
its +EV for you if you take a loan and Inflations raises as you return money with less real value than the amount you took



or if you can use the money elsewhere and get a higher return than what the interest on the loan is


tloapc   Pitcairn. Jun 24 2012 22:27. Posts 2591


  On June 24 2012 15:39 Achoo wrote:
Best way is to buy real estate and inject a lot of cash into your credit in the hope that your estate will go up in value in 5-10 years

yes true, real assets are the answer
but for clarity, what exactly do u mean by injecting lots of cash into ur credit? r u meaning upgrading ur home/real estate/asset or meaning something else? if something else, example plz?


  On June 24 2012 12:41 Spitfiree wrote:
its +EV for you if you take a loan and Inflations raises as you return money with less real value than the amount you took

u seem to forget or not realize the overall effects of inflation coupled by wages for the working guy who took the loan usually being the last thing to go up


  On June 24 2012 04:11 Achoo wrote:
Probably would be more accurate to display yearly incomes too

would u explain why u think this cuz I tend to disagree


  On June 24 2012 03:32 Hjorturkall wrote:
Show nested quote +




yeeah - but in that case it's actually just "real" zero. meaning that the lender doesn't gain anything on the loan - but due to it keeping up with inflation he doesn't lose either, which he'd do otherwise

au contraire, either way the lender does gain. Especially if we agree that more times than not the proprietary "lender" in the world is the banks


  On June 24 2012 01:35 K40Cheddar wrote:
Interesting comic but not entirely accurate

ur right, it is in black & white


  On June 23 2012 23:58 Highcard wrote:
that was always something I thought about when in school and say people begging for money. But it's not about present, it's about future earning potential. That bum has zero

future outlooks are speculative - they are not facts. imo the bum or whomever is out of debt has more future earning potential as he has no debt to pay off first. When I define future earning potential, I do not look through the lens of going in debt tagged with interest in order to be profitable. As long as the bum or whomever is out of debt did not go through bankruptcy to do so they have better earning potential

speaking generally of course..



The probability of someone watching you is proportional to the stupidity of your action. 

tloapc   Pitcairn. Jun 24 2012 22:34. Posts 2591

just saw this, thought it interesting
gonna put it here instead of youtube thread as that seems more fitting

The probability of someone watching you is proportional to the stupidity of your action.Last edit: 24/06/2012 22:34

R_I   New Zealand. Jun 24 2012 23:30. Posts 682


  On June 24 2012 21:27 tloapc wrote:
Show nested quote +

future outlooks are speculative - they are not facts. imo the bum or whomever is out of debt has more future earning potential as he has no debt to pay off first. When I define future earning potential, I do not look through the lens of going in debt tagged with interest in order to be profitable. As long as the bum or whomever is out of debt did not go through bankruptcy to do so they have better earning potential

speaking generally of course..



What does amount of debt have anything to do with earning potential? No doubt the bum's networth is going to be higher than the recent graduate for a few years but in terms of earning potential, you would expect the graduate to be able to get a job earning more than the bum could and to also have their wage go up. Don't think that's gonna happen for the bum. Doesnt matter if you don't like the way the graduate is going about it, chances are that their earning potential is going to be quite a bit higher esp as time goes on.

In a few years time the both the earnings and the net worth of the graduate should be higher than the bum's.

By being a beggar, the bum is generally guaranteed to not be able to build any networth because he is too busy trying to survive day to day. Whereas generally speaking, someone working at a decent job should be able to get out of debt and then start building their networth, especially if they are frugal and manage their career well. I do get that the economic conditions are pretty shit atm tho for trying to get jobs.

Personally I'm happy that I got a student loan and that I have a decent paying job now reducing my loan and building up assets compared to being a bum on the street with a networth of $10 for life.




 Last edit: 24/06/2012 23:32

R_I   New Zealand. Jun 24 2012 23:41. Posts 682

In New Zealand, the government actually gives money to jobless people and there are actually quite a few who don't work and just stay at home all day. The amount for someone at 26 is 1120 NZD per month gross and this would be all that person could ever make if they chose to just take the benefit money. I imagine that they would have little debt and assets.

Contrast with my case where I got 40k in student loan debt and started at 3750 NZD a month gross. I'm now up to 6250 per month gross after 5 years and I think I still have potential to go higher. My student loan is now down to about 20 something thousand as well and I have been saving up. Heck, I think my networth might have actually reached 0 wee

Again, I much prefer my situation, esp in my country I guess.


Achoo   Canada. Jun 25 2012 04:36. Posts 1454


  On June 24 2012 21:27 tloapc wrote:
Show nested quote +

yes true, real assets are the answer
but for clarity, what exactly do u mean by injecting lots of cash into ur credit? r u meaning upgrading ur home/real estate/asset or meaning something else? if something else, example plz?


Putting efforts, that is renovations you can do yourself or at a cheap price, add value to your real estate: It is not worth mentionning since it's obvious but some quick embelishments can make your property a lot more valuable (sometimes removing a wall or making your home trendy will bring a positive return). You should consider what are the expectations of a potential buyer (distance from closest city or industrial sites, accessibility, etc ...). Things to consider mainly is how your neighbourhood is going to develop in the future (infrastructures like highways, trains, industrial projects, etc), the more people to come, the more value added to the real estate in your location. "Injecting a lot of cash" means making down payments yearly on your loan b/c the first years you pay mainly interests, thus by doing so you'll greatly reduce the net loss on the long run, ask your banker you can usually pay up to 10% without penalties and make 1 or two "double" monthly payments on top. It's very important to do so at the beginning.



 
Show nested quote +

would u explain why u think this cuz I tend to disagree


Well you can earn 100k/year and own a house and still have a negative net worth at a given moment.


Odds are exactly 50%: it either happens or not 

Hjorturkall   Iceland. Jun 25 2012 06:05. Posts 483


  On June 24 2012 21:27 tloapc wrote:


Show nested quote +


au contraire, either way the lender does gain. Especially if we agree that more times than not the proprietary "lender" in the world is the banks




nonon - I'm just talking about the zero-interest loans, that keep up with inflation... The interest rate being subsidized by the government makes it so that the lender doesn't gain.
As has been mentioned - you could take these free-interest student loans and invest them in higher yielding products and make a solid profit.

Mig hefur alltaf langað til að vitna í sjálfan mig - Ég sjálfur 

tloapc   Pitcairn. Jul 05 2012 00:25. Posts 2591


  On June 24 2012 00:57 R_I wrote:
Like Highcard said, there's good debt and bad debt, or +ev debt and -ev debt if you like

Student loans nowadays are probably -ev debt in the long run with the crappy job market. We're lucky in NZ that we have 0% interest on our student loans wee

this is not true, debt in itself is bad. There is only good or bad expectations

big diff

The probability of someone watching you is proportional to the stupidity of your action. 

tloapc   Pitcairn. Jul 05 2012 00:38. Posts 2591


  On June 24 2012 22:30 R_I wrote:
What does amount of debt have anything to do with earning potential?

Well before having an actual earning, a debt must be paid. You can not have a real earning potential unless you either
a) lie to urself
or
b) have come out of the negative


  On June 24 2012 22:30 R_I wrote:
No doubt the bum's networth is going to be higher than the recent graduate for a few years but in terms of earning potential, you would expect the graduate to be able to get a job earning more than the bum could and to also have their wage go up. Don't think that's gonna happen for the bum. Doesnt matter if you don't like the way the graduate is going about it, chances are ...


I believe you are seeing what you want to see when it fits. You have concluded that all bums or people asking for help/donation have 0 earning potential. At the same time you are apparently expecting to see someone who is in debt not only paying off their debt but also getting a good job.
I disagree with these general assumptions. All I have to do is place myself in a bums shoes or a person in debts. Obviously for me, I would rather be the bum with no debt and then snap out of it and do what I want to do with no constraint(s) holding me down. I wonder if this made sense...


  On June 24 2012 22:30 R_I wrote:
...that their earning potential is going to be quite a bit higher esp as time goes on.

If this was the case, student debt in the USA would not have recently climbed over one trill


  On June 24 2012 22:30 R_I wrote:
By being a beggar, the bum is generally guaranteed to not be able to build any networth because he is too busy trying to survive day to day.

As I see more and more people who are becoming broke or in debt, this assumption becomes less and less true for my own general conclusion pertaining to people & debt. People who are 'bums' or have no money but won't go in debt, learn to become quite frugal which actually helps somewhere if they snap out of the funk or get over it is whatever ails them


  On June 24 2012 22:30 R_I wrote:
Personally I'm happy that I got a student loan and that I have a decent paying job now reducing my loan and building up assets compared to being a bum on the street with a networth of $10 for life.

I am glad for you and how you managed yourself wisely. You should realize how special you are as generally most people do not have the same outcome as you have

The probability of someone watching you is proportional to the stupidity of your action. 

tloapc   Pitcairn. Jul 05 2012 00:47. Posts 2591

Imma come back to this thread again at a later date
fun is calling =)

The probability of someone watching you is proportional to the stupidity of your action. 

R_I   New Zealand. Jul 15 2012 21:20. Posts 682

Oh hey, just noticed that you actually replied.


  On July 04 2012 23:38 tloapc wrote:
Show nested quote +

Well before having an actual earning, a debt must be paid. You can not have a real earning potential unless you either
a) lie to urself
or
b) have come out of the negative



I think we should make a clear distinction between building and having a positive networth and earning money. Earning money is when you exchange your time and effort for currency. If a person has more earning potential it means that they have the potential to be a in position where they get more money in exchange for their time.

Even if you have 1 million in debt, the moment you spend an hour doing some work and receive $10 for your time, you have just earnt $10. You are then free to do what you like with it, including building your networth.

I've seen you pull out the dictionary and circle definitions in your latest posts so you are welcome to do so with the word "earn".



 
Show nested quote +


I believe you are seeing what you want to see when it fits. You have concluded that all bums or people asking for help/donation have 0 earning potential. At the same time you are apparently expecting to see someone who is in debt not only paying off their debt but also getting a good job.
I disagree with these general assumptions. All I have to do is place myself in a bums shoes or a person in debts. Obviously for me, I would rather be the bum with no debt and then snap out of it and do what I want to do with no constraint(s) holding me down. I wonder if this made sense...



Well, I would say it's quite a bit of an assumption to assume the bum can just snap out of it and start making decent money, especially if they avoid going in debt for education.



 
Show nested quote +

If this was the case, student debt in the USA would not have recently climbed over one trill



Again, i think there's a distinction between networth and earning potential/money. If say people earnt more but are neglecting to pay down their debt and are instead buying status symbols, that would still explain the student debt climbing up even if people are earning lots of money. The economy needs people to spend money on stuff like new cars and houses.



 
Show nested quote +

As I see more and more people who are becoming broke or in debt, this assumption becomes less and less true for my own general conclusion pertaining to people & debt. People who are 'bums' or have no money but won't go in debt, learn to become quite frugal which actually helps somewhere if they snap out of the funk or get over it is whatever ails them


Again with the assumption that bums just snap out of it and start building significant networth without taking on debt.

My whole point has been that over say 20 years, you have a lot better expected networth by taking on student loan debt and then getting a good paying job than if you're someone with no qualifications making near the minimum wage.

Maybe you could run some numbers for the discussion? You can pick numbers that you think are conservative and then calculate what the networths are looking in like 10 or 20 years time for the graduate and the bum in your graphic. Pick numbers for things like starting pay, average wage increases and the minimum wage. Also costs too if you like. I'd be happy to do the same but I'll let you pick what you think are reasonable numbers first.


 
Show nested quote +

I am glad for you and how you managed yourself wisely. You should realize how special you are as generally most people do not have the same outcome as you have


As poker players, we learn not to focus on outcome but on the expected value of actions right?

Here's a summary of my claim: In terms of building networth over the working life of a person (20 to 65), the expectation is a lot higher if they go into debt for education compared to not doing so. This is a comparison where factors like self management are equal. This is also discounting some huge overhaul of the current system. The old saying of playing your hand the best you can, even if it's shitty.

If you disagree, run some numbers and let's see. One outside case is someone forgoing education but starting a business but hey, they would need to go into a lot of debt as well.

 Last edit: 15/07/2012 21:22

 



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