50NL would you fold this??

villain is unknown (8 hands or so), but looks like reg. pot on the river is about 18

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forget one thing - timing was 5-10 sec

nvm totally misread hand, interesting spot not sure what i would do

I want to post: "Doesn't matter. These spots don't come up often. Fixing your leaks in standard spots is much more effective." but I'll say, interesting spot, not sure what I would do.

does he open with any 2s? If so it's likely a suited a2 or 23, and how often does he cbet? I honestly think stats are extremely important here. He has an ace here a huge % of the time

Dayum, I'd fold

this is JJ 87.3 % of the time

I fold vs unknown because either you're breaking even or way behind with very little probability of being ahead.

wtf

I don't think I'm good enough to fold this here even if it was the best play.

theres nothing you can do here except get owned

i fold here almost always and dont think very hard about it

thx for answers

I probably made mistake, because I posted this before I think about it. And the reason why I posted this is not the hand, but this concrete spot - its obvious that BTN has A more than 90% of time, but his range is capped (he cant have AA - 3bet pre, JJ - huge % is 3betting pre or would raise flop, A2s - its only 1 combo and it would raise somewhere) - so my point was, that if BTN can hand read at least little bit he must fold his whole range, when CO shoves = looks sick.

So I thought about it and tried to find reasons, why this can happen and I think we can call, when we know villain is creative and he will not ship quickly (because this river changes board in some weird way and if CO will have a hand, which beats A he would think only about sizing, but if not it must take some time), otherwise we should fold, even though we will fold our whole range - its just combination of sick river card and CO play.
I know something like this happens once in few 100k hands, but still interesting...

Anyway results:
I changed this hand little bit. Actually I was villain and when we get to the river at first I wanted to c/f, because he will have A like always, but then I realized my range is still nutted and when I shove, he should be folding even when he have that A. But I didnt do it simply because he was unknown and to fold A here you need to hand read at least little bit and have good discipline, so I gave up and c/f my QTo

On February 13 2012 02:21 tuna333 wrote: thx for answers I probably made mistake, because I posted this before I think about it. And the reason why I posted this is not the hand, but this concrete spot - its obvious that BTN has A more than 90% of time, but his range is capped (he cant have AA - 3bet pre, JJ - huge % is 3betting pre or would raise flop, A2s - its only 1 combo and it would raise somewhere) - so my point was, that if BTN can hand read at least little bit he must fold his whole range, when CO shoves = looks sick. So I thought about it and tried to find reasons, why this can happen and I think we can call, when we know villain is creative and he will not ship quickly (because this river changes board in some weird way and if CO will have a hand, which beats A he would think only about sizing, but if not it must take some time), otherwise we should fold, even though we will fold our whole range - its just combination of sick river card and CO play. I know something like this happens once in few 100k hands, but still interesting... Anyway results: I changed this hand little bit. Actually I was villain and when we get to the river at first I wanted to c/f, because he will have A like always, but then I realized my range is still nutted and when I shove, he should be folding even when he have that A. But I didnt do it simply because he was unknown and to fold A here you need to hand read at least little bit and have good discipline, so I gave up and c/f my QTo

shoving here as a bluff at 50NL is like explaning calcalus to a 6 month old cat
wtf are you thinking

part of being a good player is knowing your opponent, bluff shoving here vs a random is a really bad play
this is very spewy and your gonna lose a lot of money if you continue

On February 13 2012 02:27 TalentedTom wrote: part of being a good player is knowing your opponent, bluff shoving here vs a random is a really bad play this is very spewy and your gonna lose a lot of money if you continue

I probably said something wrong (Im not good at English), but I agree w/ everything you said and my thinking is exactly same
thx for comments

I re read, what I wrote and my this was my last sentence:

On February 13 2012 02:21 tuna333 wrote: But I didnt do it simply because he was unknown and to fold A here you need to hand read at least little bit and have good discipline, so I gave up and c/f my QTo

I would never do this vs unknown, because I dont want to throw 80bb out of window, but still think it was intersting idea

On February 13 2012 02:25 TalentedTom wrote: Show nested quote + On February 13 2012 02:21 tuna333 wrote: [spoil] thx for answers I probably made mistake, because I posted this before I think about it. And the reason why I posted this is not the hand, but this concrete spot - its obvious that BTN has A more than 90% of time, but his range is capped (he cant have AA - 3bet pre, JJ - huge % is 3betting pre or would raise flop, A2s - its only 1 combo and it would raise somewhere) - so my point was, that if BTN can hand read at least little bit he must fold his whole range, when CO shoves = looks sick. So I thought about it and tried to find reasons, why this can happen and I think we can call, when we know villain is creative and he will not ship quickly (because this river changes board in some weird way and if CO will have a hand, which beats A he would think only about sizing, but if not it must take some time), otherwise we should fold, even though we will fold our whole range - its just combination of sick river card and CO play. I know something like this happens once in few 100k hands, but still interesting... Anyway results: I changed this hand little bit. Actually I was villain and when we get to the river at first I wanted to c/f, because he will have A like always, but then I realized my range is still nutted and when I shove, he should be folding even when he have that A. But I didnt do it simply because he was unknown and to fold A here you need to hand read at least little bit and have good discipline, so I gave up and c/f my QTo[/spoil] shoving here as a bluff at 50NL is like explaning calcalus to a 6 month old cat wtf are you thinking

lol damn tom i like ur analogy

On February 13 2012 02:25 TalentedTom wrote: shoving here as a bluff at 50NL is like explaning calcalus to a 6 month old cat wtf are you thinking

On February 12 2012 14:21 idonklife wrote: this is JJ 87.3 % of the time

wtf way off, 93 %

you called the turn so in his eye you don't have too much draws, so i think its a max value allin from your aces. its hard, but imo fold is the best here.

On February 21 2012 20:51 SpasticInk wrote: Show nested quote + On February 12 2012 14:21 idonklife wrote: this is JJ 87.3 % of the time wtf way off, 93 %

I'll buy 91 % but not more than that.

On February 13 2012 02:25 TalentedTom wrote: Show nested quote + On February 13 2012 02:21 tuna333 wrote: thx for answers I probably made mistake, because I posted this before I think about it. And the reason why I posted this is not the hand, but this concrete spot - its obvious that BTN has A more than 90% of time, but his range is capped (he cant have AA - 3bet pre, JJ - huge % is 3betting pre or would raise flop, A2s - its only 1 combo and it would raise somewhere) - so my point was, that if BTN can hand read at least little bit he must fold his whole range, when CO shoves = looks sick. So I thought about it and tried to find reasons, why this can happen and I think we can call, when we know villain is creative and he will not ship quickly (because this river changes board in some weird way and if CO will have a hand, which beats A he would think only about sizing, but if not it must take some time), otherwise we should fold, even though we will fold our whole range - its just combination of sick river card and CO play. I know something like this happens once in few 100k hands, but still interesting... Anyway results: I changed this hand little bit. Actually I was villain and when we get to the river at first I wanted to c/f, because he will have A like always, but then I realized my range is still nutted and when I shove, he should be folding even when he have that A. But I didnt do it simply because he was unknown and to fold A here you need to hand read at least little bit and have good discipline, so I gave up and c/f my QTo shoving here as a bluff at 50NL is like explaning calcalus to a 6 month old cat wtf are you thinking

goddamn i laugh so hard at this every time i read it

mostly because i overanalyze it like an idiot, my brain just races with "i like how he specifies a 6 month old cat, as if an older cat would have a better level of comprehension"



2:19
"and like an idiot, i actually tried to explain this screwed up thought"