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Handnr: 989663
Submitted by : EvilSky

***** Cassava Hand History for Game 377031208 *****
$3/$6 Blinds No Limit Holdem - *** 25 10 2012 20:44:56
Table Tapachula Real Money
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: I_play_drunk $609
Seat 2: wimvov $230
Seat 4: Lukryn $600
Seat 6: polShishe4ki $672.95
Seat 7: Capirex $600
Seat 9: Hero $624
polShishe4ki posts small blind [$3]
Capirex posts big blind [$6]

Holecards
Dealt to Hero [ThJh ]
Hero raises [$18]
I_play_drunk folds
wimvov folds
Lukryn folds
polShishe4ki folds
Capirex calls [$12]
** Dealing flop ** [Kd,Qh7h ]
Capirex checks
Hero bets [$30]
Capirex calls [$30]
** Dealing turn ** Ac ]
Capirex checks
Hero bets [$78]
Capirex calls [$78]
** Dealing river ** 7s ]
Capirex checks
Hero bets [$186]
Capirex raises [$474]

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Comments

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EvilSky    Czech Republic. Oct 25 2012 14:49. Posts 8915

eww, so few combos that beat me but can this ever be a bluff ??

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n0rthf4ce    United States. Oct 25 2012 15:10. Posts 8119

prob fold here

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TalentedTom    Canada. Oct 25 2012 15:14. Posts 20070

yeah prob fold, your range looks super strong esp since you opened UTG

fk this

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longple    Sweden. Oct 25 2012 15:15. Posts 4471

Cant see what he can have here except quads or a slowplayed QQ+ pre + that takes a ch/c line? Is he a reg?


PanoRaMa   United States. Oct 25 2012 15:29. Posts 1655


  On October 25 2012 14:15 longple wrote:
Cant see what he can have here except quads or a slowplayed QQ+ pre + that takes a ch/c line? Is he a reg?



Agreed, feel like this is probably some wacky pair turned into bluff more often than a boat imo.

http://panorama.liquidpoker.netLast edit: 25/10/2012 15:29

EvilSky    Czech Republic. Oct 25 2012 15:31. Posts 8915

yeah hes a reg, not much history, he seems on the aggro side. but who fucking bluffs here...

 Last edit: 25/10/2012 15:38

Bullshit   Canada. Oct 25 2012 16:03. Posts 738

ya seems like a fold its just not a bluff


longple    Sweden. Oct 25 2012 16:17. Posts 4471

if he can read hands and ur sure hes aware of only repping 1 combo of 77 here (that decided to NOT raise the flop)

i guess he has 77 or AA or something, but then again, ppl are better handreaders today vs the more solid guys that has respect for me i make silly bluffs like these at times for sure just because no one that reads hands bluffs when they have like a 0.5 combo valuerange -_-


PanoRaMa   United States. Oct 25 2012 16:21. Posts 1655


  On October 25 2012 14:31 EvilSky wrote:
yeah hes a reg, not much history, he seems on the aggro side. but who fucking bluffs here...



I know it's drawing at straws here but Axhh jamming to fold out a chop can't be that unreasonable. Like I said, I think something wacky like that shows up more often than someone slowplaying QQ-AA pre, deciding to take a c/c line on a wet board, etc.

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PanoRaMa   United States. Oct 25 2012 16:25. Posts 1655

The caveat is he thinks 3betting a utg raiser from bb would look too strong so he'll slowplay QQ-AA, fine. But the same could be said for AK, and if he thinks value jamming AK here is worth it at all then your equity is fine even if we give him all boats/quads

Board: Kd Qh 7h Ac 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.368% 47.37% 00.00% 9 0.00 { JhTh }
Hand 1: 52.632% 52.63% 00.00% 10 0.00 { QQ+, 77, AKs, AKo }

We only have to be good here 31.5% if my mathing is correct

http://panorama.liquidpoker.netLast edit: 25/10/2012 16:28

EvilSky    Czech Republic. Oct 25 2012 16:59. Posts 8915

we need about 24%, I think he can have all 10 combos of boats but those can be somehow discounted for flatting pre with KK-AA and flatting flop with 77 and AA so about ~6. I wouldnt count on AK to value raise but if we add the 3 combos of JT we chop with we need like 1 or 2 combos of bluffs to call... math says call but I just felt he wasnt ever bluffing.


PanoRaMa   United States. Oct 25 2012 17:05. Posts 1655

Re maths, are you sure? River pot is 252, 624 after the bet and match, you're facing a bet of 288, 288/(288+624) = 31.5%

If he plays any HU he's likely privy to the spew concept of reverse pot odds bluffs, so if part of the reasoning for him never bluffing you here is due to the bet sizing, I would discount that a bit.

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EvilSky    Czech Republic. Oct 25 2012 17:18. Posts 8915

Yes Im sure, those are the odds we are getting, which is roughly 3:1, when we are layed 3:1 we need 25% eq. Besides the HEM hand replayer just has these numbers


 

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