eww, so few combos that beat me but can this ever be a bluff ??

prob fold here

yeah prob fold, your range looks super strong esp since you opened UTG

fk this

Cant see what he can have here except quads or a slowplayed QQ+ pre + that takes a ch/c line? Is he a reg?

On October 25 2012 14:15 longple wrote: Cant see what he can have here except quads or a slowplayed QQ+ pre + that takes a ch/c line? Is he a reg?

Agreed, feel like this is probably some wacky pair turned into bluff more often than a boat imo.

yeah hes a reg, not much history, he seems on the aggro side. but who fucking bluffs here...

ya seems like a fold its just not a bluff

if he can read hands and ur sure hes aware of only repping 1 combo of 77 here (that decided to NOT raise the flop)

i guess he has 77 or AA or something, but then again, ppl are better handreaders today vs the more solid guys that has respect for me i make silly bluffs like these at times for sure just because no one that reads hands bluffs when they have like a 0.5 combo valuerange -_-

On October 25 2012 14:31 EvilSky wrote: yeah hes a reg, not much history, he seems on the aggro side. but who fucking bluffs here...

I know it's drawing at straws here but Axhh jamming to fold out a chop can't be that unreasonable. Like I said, I think something wacky like that shows up more often than someone slowplaying QQ-AA pre, deciding to take a c/c line on a wet board, etc.

The caveat is he thinks 3betting a utg raiser from bb would look too strong so he'll slowplay QQ-AA, fine. But the same could be said for AK, and if he thinks value jamming AK here is worth it at all then your equity is fine even if we give him all boats/quads

Board: Kd Qh 7h Ac 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.368% 47.37% 00.00% 9 0.00 { JhTh }
Hand 1: 52.632% 52.63% 00.00% 10 0.00 { QQ+, 77, AKs, AKo }

We only have to be good here 31.5% if my mathing is correct

we need about 24%, I think he can have all 10 combos of boats but those can be somehow discounted for flatting pre with KK-AA and flatting flop with 77 and AA so about ~6. I wouldnt count on AK to value raise but if we add the 3 combos of JT we chop with we need like 1 or 2 combos of bluffs to call... math says call but I just felt he wasnt ever bluffing.

Re maths, are you sure? River pot is 252, 624 after the bet and match, you're facing a bet of 288, 288/(288+624) = 31.5%

If he plays any HU he's likely privy to the spew concept of reverse pot odds bluffs, so if part of the reasoning for him never bluffing you here is due to the bet sizing, I would discount that a bit.

Yes Im sure, those are the odds we are getting, which is roughly 3:1, when we are layed 3:1 we need 25% eq. Besides the HEM hand replayer just has these numbers