This may be overly detailed, and possibly incorrect, but here goes.
Right now the pot is $13... You have about 20 left.
Options:
1) Fold... well, no more stack analyisis required. Probably the simplest, maybe not the best.
2) Call... then the pot is $16, you've got $17 left. If you are behind, he can get all of your money on relatively small bets on the turn and the river. If you are ahead, then he might get a free card on the turn, or be able to bluff you out with a turn push (given the stack sizes it'd be another close decision for you, I'd probably call.) IF you lead, then you are pot commited. I don't mind this play if you had position, but you don't.
3) Reraise to $13 or something like that. The pot would be $26, you'd have $7 left, so you are pot committed no matter what he does. Well that would certainly get you more information, and would probably fold out a flush draw, but you'd be pot commited. Even a smaller reraise probably commits you.
4) Push. The pot would be $33, and it would be $17 for him to call. These wouldn't be terrible odds for him, but I think he'd fold the draws even from a donk based upon your agression. This puts him to a decision.
I prefer push or fold. You need a read of SOME SORT to choose between them. Ideally, you'd have a note saying something about what his minraise could mean. If minraise is sometimes a draw, and sometimes a big hand, then I push. If it is always a big hand then I fold.
If you don't have that much info, if I've seen him call loose and he tries to take down pots after the flop. Then I push. If I've seen him call only PP then I fold. If I've seen him be just generally nitty pf, and passive, then I fold.
If this is my first hand at this table and I have no PT stats... I guess I push. But it is close.
What do I think he has? In order of likleyhood.
1) AKos
2) AsQs, QsJs
3) 77
4) TT/KQ/KJ
5) AA (less likely than others because no repop pf and why would he minraise with a FD out there?)
6) 22 |
