any thoughts? can can I call profitably? is my hand just too strong to bluff with? I think this is likely a fold? villain is unknown over 20 hands really, don't even think they were this session

yeh just pitch it

he has 25 behind on the river

do non-boats or AJ/JT bet-fold this river? because I was thinking that I would probably have to bet-fold AA, AK, AQ and I wasn't sure about QK (even though it is practically the same hand, just from a psychological perspective)

counting combos in my ahead I got 27 combos of 1pair hands and KQ that could bet-fold and 27 combos of hands that bet-call (all jacks ten-jack+ and 55).

My bluff is profitable but there are many assumptions, like are jacks worse than QJ in his preflop range? is QJ in his preflop range? does he bet AQ on the river? does he actually fold those 1pair hands?

these are the combos I counted tell me if I'm counting correctly please

AK 9
QJ 4
KQ 6
KJ 4
AA 6
QQ 1
55 3
AQ 6
AJ 4
TJ 8
KK 3


so someone plz tell me does QK/AA or worse fold here?@!?!?!?!?!?1/1/1/1/1/

I put 40 to win 41 so it looks like a break-even bluff if my assumptions are true and thus I probably wouldn't bluff here vs an unknown especially, and in most cases a call would probably be better if I had information on the opponent ((ie if I knew someone was bluffing here frequently), I also don't expect TJo, QJo, or KJo to be in some villains preflop UTG range though..))

in any case through all of this rambling.. is my thinking OK and I'd still like a comment on my assumptions (do people fold QK/AA or worse)

since he's a total unknown you can be absolutely sure about his tendencies, for example ALL unknowns bet/fold this river ONLY with AA and KQ

but seriously, I wouldn't expect and/or count on NL50 players to bet/fold at all... if he's afraid you may have a jack or that you may have rivered a king, he'd just check behind... and he doesn't seem at all afraid

I mean it's really cool to turn AQ into a bluff here maybe, but let's not do that on NL50

On April 09 2010 14:03 boreHM wrote: since he's a total unknown you can be absolutely sure about his tendencies, for example ALL unknowns bet/fold this river ONLY with AA and KQ but seriously, I wouldn't expect and/or count on NL50 players to bet/fold at all... if he's afraid you may have a jack or that you may have rivered a king, he'd just check behind... and he doesn't seem at all afraid

hehe I mean in general/most regs who don't have history together, I do understand your point but I'm trying to get a better baseline feel for what people are doing with their hands in this game of poker. ie If you were facing a shove here without any applicable history with each possible hand, what are your thoughts? that kinda thing.


yeah I agree that in general people's ranges hold many more nutlike hands than bluffs or thinner value hands on the river at nl50, probably should keep these thoughts underwraps.

I know the situation is very different (and I obv PU's idea here is 100 times better/more likely to work than bluffing in this hand) but I got the idea of being willing to make this kind of move from this hand: http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/815852
dunno why I mentioned it just a side note lol