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Handnr: 22089
Submitted by : Daut

PokerStars Game #4581947592: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2) - 2006/04/10 - 11:11:30 (ET)
Table 'Sadachbia' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: HeartAce ($27.35 in chips)
Seat 2: plokio ($51.10 in chips)
Seat 3: SimPrez ($35.40 in chips)
Seat 5: Scipio10 ($160.15 in chips)
Seat 6: dutch2399 ($66.60 in chips)
Seat 7: TucsonOG ($620.45 in chips)
Seat 8: Daut44 ($244.40 in chips)
Seat 9: Joel13 ($52.90 in chips)
TucsonOG: posts small blind $1
Daut44: posts big blind $2

Holecards
Dealt to Daut44 4sAs
Joel13: folds
HeartAce: folds
plokio: folds
SimPrez: folds
Scipio10: folds
dutch2399: folds
TucsonOG: calls $1
Daut44: checks

Flop (Pot : $4)

   4h8s6s
TucsonOG: bets $4
Daut44: raises $6 to $10
TucsonOG: raises $50 to $60
Daut44 said, "..."
Daut44: folds
TucsonOG collected $22.85 from pot
TucsonOG: doesn't show hand

Summary
Total pot $24 | Rake $1.15
Board  4h8s6s
Seat 1: HeartAce folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: plokio folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: SimPrez folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Scipio10 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: dutch2399 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: TucsonOG (small blind) collected ($22.85)
Seat 8: Daut44 (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 9: Joel13 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

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Comments

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nomanirvana   United States. Apr 10 2006 09:16. Posts 2523

set?

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lucifer   Sweden. Apr 10 2006 09:17. Posts 5955

protecting set or twopair. or you find yourself an atm machine

On February 19 2009 22:21 Confedrate wrote: i dont get it 

DarkXprT   Qatar. Apr 10 2006 09:19. Posts 1832

he reads you well. he had 88 or 66 for sure. he limped. then potted and then 5x re-raised? seems like he had the hand there. and i don't think he complete de small blind with 57 so its either 88,66,44 or some slowplayed AA, KK.
you don't have odds to call anyway.

Learn from quotes. 

tomson    Poland. Apr 10 2006 09:26. Posts 1982

Don't feel like pushing?

It doesn't look like he wants to get value from you. You're a 30 70 underdog against a set, 40 60 against straight, 50 50 against two pair. I think you have decent fold equity.

I'm not advocating pushing here, but it's definitely an option, especially if you know he's capable of making plays like that.

Peace of mind cant be bought.Last edit: 10/04/2006 09:27

Daut    United States. Apr 10 2006 09:29. Posts 8955

i did consider it tomson, just felt too sketchy.

i dont think i had any fold equity, BUT, thinking about it now, i do think i had better odds than i thought at the time. id say 40% overpair (AA KK QQ), 30% straight, 30% set/2 pair.

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, DautLast edit: 10/04/2006 09:36

Twisted    Netherlands. Apr 10 2006 09:33. Posts 10422

I think he's very capable of completing the sb with 57s. He just didn't want you drawing to the flush.

My guess is that he had 57s (s for suited, not for spades, allthough he could have that hand as well, but very unlikely).


[vital]Myth    United States. Apr 10 2006 09:38. Posts 12159

if you push for $232 more out of your own stack, and the pot contains an implicit $182+$60+$12 = $254, you're getting 254:232 or 1.095:1, which is equivalent to 52.3:47.7, so let's assume you're in the worst-case scenario and you're up against a set.

70:30 vs. 52.3:47.7, you have some ground to make up with fold equity.
70:30 --> EV = -$16.60
to regain $16.60 in FE, he needs to fold (16.60/(60+12)) = 23% of the time.

you think he's folding around 20% of the time (since you're not always 70-30, you don't need quite 23%)?

i don't. plus you'd rather be making this huge push into an unraised pot when you're a good favorite, not nearly breaking even.

Eh, I can go a few more orbits in life, before taxes blind me out - PoorUser 

Twisted    Netherlands. Apr 10 2006 09:45. Posts 10422

The reason why this is an easy fold, is because like myth said, you're probably 50/50 or worse here.

The biggest factor is though, that you only invested 12$ here. No biggie, just wait for a better opportunity, guy seems like a maniac.


tomson    Poland. Apr 10 2006 09:50. Posts 1982

I think there is a not so bad chance this might be a bluff, so you should take that into consideration.

And how much you invested should never matter if we're not talking about whether or not he is pot commited.

Peace of mind cant be bought. 

tomson    Poland. Apr 10 2006 09:53. Posts 1982

Whether you put 3$ or 30$ shouldn't influence your decision. A good situation is a good situation.

Peace of mind cant be bought. 

Twisted    Netherlands. Apr 10 2006 09:54. Posts 10422

Well it might just be me, but I don't like playing for stacks with a marginal hand like this.


 

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